The President's Daily Brief - December 30th, 2025: China’s Military Encircles Taiwan & Russia Accuses Ukraine Of Foul Play

Episode Date: December 30, 2025

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: China encircles Taiwan with the largest military exercises in its history, deploying warships and fighter jets in a move that blurs the line between training and real-world preparation. Russia claims Vladimir Putin was targeted by a Ukrainian strike, with Moscow hinting at tougher negotiating positions while Ukraine flatly denies the accusation. Donald Trump meets with Benjamin Netanyahu in Florida, pressing for progress on a stalled Gaza ceasefire. And in today’s Back of the Brief—Kim Jong Un closes out the year with a warning, as North Korea claims it tested long-range cruise missiles. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.  YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Glorify: Feel closer to God this year with Glorify—get full access for just $29.99 when you download the app now at https://glorify-app.com/PDB.  Stash Financial: Don't Let your money sit around. Go to https://get.stash.com/PDB to see how you can receive $25 towards your first stock purchase. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As the crispy chicken sandwich from 7-Eleven, people always call me loud. And I'm like, yeah, I know. I'm crispy. Did you expect me to whisper? If you want quiet, go eat some soup and reflect. Like, I know I'm a handful. I'm bold, I'm juicy. Throw some pickles and barbecue sauce on me, and baby, I'm a whole meal.

And with seven rewards, I'm just $4. Quiet. No. Krispy, saucy, and $4? Very. Only at 711. Valley 362326, participating stores only while supplies lastly out for full terms. Looking to diversify and protect your hard-earned assets,

well, schedule a free consultation with the Birch Gold Group. They're the precious metal specialists. Just text PDB to 989-89-898, and you'll receive a free, no-obligation information kit, and you'll learn how to convert an existing IRA or a 401k into a gold IRA. Again, text PDB to 989-89-898. It's Tuesday, the 30th of December. Well, look at that. Two days left in what has been a very eventful 2025.

Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right. Let's get briefed. First up, China encircles Taiwan with the largest military exercises in its history, raising an interesting question. At which point does an exercise stop being just an exercise and start becoming the real thing?

I'll have the details. Later in the show, Russia claims Ukraine tried to carry out a drone attack on Russian President Putin's residence. That's not very neighborly, with Moscow now hinting at taking a tougher negotiating position, while Kiev flatly dismisses the accusation as a lie. And not to state the obvious, but I think I'm about to, what else could Moscow do to take a tougher negotiating position than the one they've already got? Plus, President Trump meets with Prime Minister Netanyahu in Florida

to push for movement on the stalled Gaza ceasefire. And it stays back of the brief. Kim Jong-un wraps up the year by throwing his teddy out of the crib again. That's right. This North Korea says it just tested a bunch of long-range cruise missiles. Haza and happy New Year. But first, today's PDB spotlight. China has just launched what both Beijing and outside observers are calling the largest military exercises that the Chinese military has ever conducted around Taiwan. Over the past several days, the People's Liberation Army has launched what its calling, quote,

Justice Mission 2025. That's got a quaint ring to it, doesn't it? Surging warships and fighter jets, bombers, drones, and missile units into multiple operating zones surrounding Taiwan. The scope is massive. These drills aren't confined to one side of the island or just one service branch of the PLA. They're coordinated across sea and air and rocket forces, creating a near-complete military ring around Taiwan. According to Taiwanese officials, dozens of Chinese naval vessels and a very large number of military aircraft have been involved, some operating closer to Taiwan than in previous exercises. Commercial air traffic has been rerouted, shipping's been warned away from certain zones.

Live fire components are reportedly included, with the Chinese government declaring several no-fly zones as they conduct a variety of missile launches. And Beijing hasn't been subtle with their messaging. Chinese state media says these drills are, quote, a stern warning to Taiwan's leadership and to what China calls, quote, external interference. That's a not so subtle reference to the U.S. From Beijing's perspective, this is about deterrence, sovereignty, and control of escalation. From Taiwan's perspective, though, it's about survival. Taipei has placed its forces on heightened alert, scrambling aircraft and tracking Chinese movements closely. Taiwanese officials

are careful with their language, but the concern is obvious. When drills reach this size and complexity, they stop looking like political theater and start looking like rehearsals. And that brings us to the bigger question, why these exercises matter so much and why intelligence agencies and defense planners take them seriously every single time. Military exercises aren't just about training individual units. They're about testing command and control, logistics, communications, and timing under realistic conditions.

When you see an operation like this, multiple services, operations, operate. simultaneously, encircling an island, practicing interdiction and control of air and sea space, well, you're watching a simulation of how a real conflict would begin. In Taiwan's case, that matters because the most likely opening move in any real confrontation won't be an immediate amphibious invasion. It would be a quarantine or blockade with strict shipping, close airspace, apply pressure without formally declaring war. These drills appear designed to practice just that. There's also a psychological component. Constantine-tempo exercises force Taiwan's military to respond again and again, burning fuel and wearing down crews, stressing systems. Over time,

that creates fatigue. It also conditions the public to crisis. When everything feels urgent all the time, it becomes harder to recognize the moment when something truly changes. And that's where the historical parallel comes in. Before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia conducted repeated large-scale military exercises near Ukraine's borders. Moscow insisted they were routine, defensive, temporary. Troops were already in position, equipment was already staged, logistics were already flowing. When the order came, well, there was no dramatic mobilization that suddenly tipped everyone off. The switch from exercise to invasion happened almost seamlessly. By the time it was unmistakable, it was, well, too late to debate intentions. Beijing knows that lesson very well. They've

spent the past four years closely studying Putin's invasion and the international community's response. By normalizing massive drills around Taiwan, China gains strategic ambiguity. If a future operation begins under the banner of an exercise, decision makers in Washington and Tokyo and Taipei would face an immediate dilemma. Do you respond forcefully and risk escalating what China claims is training, or do you hesitate and risk discovering that hesitation was a mistake? stake. That's why analysts don't just watch troop numbers. They look for indicators that separate drills from real operations. Unusual logistics movements, stockpiling of fuel and ammunition, changes in political messaging, civilian evacuation guidance, cyberactivity, and internal security shifts

inside China itself. Right now, we don't seem to see any definitive signs that an invasion is imminent, but it doesn't mean that these drills are harmless. Each exercise, like this improves China's readiness. Each one reduces the margin for error. Each one shortens the warning time if Beijing ever decides to move from exercise to action. They're deliberate rehearsals designed to make a future operation if one is ordered, faster, smoother, and harder to stop. The world learned the hard way that dismissing exercises as just exercises can be a costly mistake. Taiwan's neighbors, U.S. allies in the region, and American planners understand that that reality. That's why these drills are watched so closely, and why the phrase, quote,

largest ever, isn't just a headline. It's a warning sign. All right, coming up next. Russia claims Ukraine targeted President Putin's residence as Moscow hardens its tone in response to the alleged attack, while President Trump presses Prime Minister Netanyahu for movement on a stalled Gaza ceasefire. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, as we move into the the new year. Many of us are looking to build more intentional lives, right, to live deliberately and better aligned with our purpose and values. That's why I want to tell you about glorify. It's the number one Christian daily devotional app. Glorify can help you lead a more intentional life. They've got a 21-day challenge that helps build that simple but powerful habit of seeking

wisdom and guidance every day. You can start your morning with a Bible passage or daily devotional or an immersive daily walk with God. In the middle of a busy day, You can listen to a curated playlist for quiet reflection. And they've also got sleep meditations to help you wind down and reflect on your day. Over 20 million people have used Glorify to deepen their relationship with God. And they've provided an opportunity for PDB listeners now to get full access to Glorify for less than $30 for the entire year. When you download the app now at glorify-dash-app.com slash PDB.

That's glorify-dash-app.com slash PDB. Feel closer to God this year with Glorify. Get full access all year for just 2999 at glorify dash app.com slash PDB. This is Euphoria Calvin Klein, the new elixir collection, featuring three perfume intense scents, inspired by a unique orchid accord paired with vanilla, each with its own distinct attitude, each with its own universe, bold elixir, sensual, woody, addictive, magnetic elixir, sweet and romantic like a lingering touch, solar elixir,

or radiant expression of joy, ultra-concentrated for amplified impact and lasting power. Find your euphoria. Discover the euphoria elixir collection by Calvin Klein. Welcome back to the BDB. As peace talks sputter and drags slowly on, albeit without meaningful participation or input from Moscow, the Kremlin is now accusing Ukraine of attempting to strike a residence used by Russian President Putin, an allegation that Keev says is deliberately false and solely aimed at derailing diplomacy. According to Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, Ukrainian forces

launched 91 long-range drones overnight Sunday toward the presidential residence in Russia's Novgorod region, which lies in the country's northwest, midway between Moscow and St. Petersburg. There's no indication that Putin was at the residence when the alleged incident occurred.

Lavrov claims all the drones were intercepted by Russian air defenses and said that no injuries or damage was reported. Well, that's convenient. Now Russia has presented zero independent evidence to support the allegation, and the claim has not yet been verified by any outside sources. But that did not stop Moscow from quickly escalating the rhetoric. Lavrov branded the alleged incident an act of, quote, state terrorism, and warned that Russia would now reassess its negotiating position in talks to end the nearly four-year-old war. Now, if I may, I'd like to point out the absurdity of Putin's invading regime accusing Ukraine.

of state terrorism. Lavrov confirmed that Russian armed forces have selected targets for retaliation, adding that, quote, such reckless actions will not go unanswered, language that once again sets the stage for escalating attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure based solely on Russian allegations. Ukraine's President Zelensky rejected the Kremlin's accusation outright, accusing Moscow of manufacturing a crisis to justify further attacks and to sabotage what are already fragile peace efforts following his meeting Sunday with President Trump and Marlago. In a post on X, Zelensky accused Moscow of reverting to a familiar playbook, writing that, quote, Russia is at it again, using dangerous statements to undermine all achievements of our shared

diplomatic efforts with President Trump's team. Zelensky said the claim of a presidential residence strike was entirely fabricated, arguing it was designed to pave the way to mask Russia's unwillingness to pursue peace, calling it, quote, typical Russian lies. White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt said Trump spoke with Putin on Monday in what was the second phone call in two days. According to CNN, the Russian leader informed Trump of the drone attack, to which Trump said it was not the correct time for Keeve to target his residence given ongoing and sensitive peace talks. However, Trump did concede that the allegation of the attack from the Kremlin could be false.

although it would be shocking to think that Putin and his minions might be engaged in disinformation. And by that, I mean, it wouldn't be shocking in the least. All right, turning to the U.S., Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu arrived at Mar-Lago in Florida Monday for talks with President Trump, as attention turns to the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, which, of course, centers on Hamas' disarmament and agreement to step down from governing Gaza. His visit comes at a critical moment. The ceasefire, Trump brokered and signed in October, largely did what it was designed to do in its opening phase, ease the fighting, and able to return of hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, and surge aid deliveries. The second phase, however, is proving elusive, if not impossible.

For phase two, it goes straight to the core of the conflict, whether Hamas gives up its weapons, and Gaza moves towards a governing structure not controlled by the Iranians. and backed terror group. So far, Hamas has shown little interest in complying with either requirement of the ceasefire agreement. That backdrop explains why Netanyahu's fifth trip to the U.S. since the start of Trump's second term comes now. As we've been covering here on the PDB, Trump's plan for Gaza envisions an international board of peace to be led by the president himself alongside other world leaders. They would oversee a transitional administration made up of Palestinian technocrats once Hamas is is removed from power. Once that body is in place, as the idea goes, an international security force, the ISF, mandated by the November U.N. Security Council resolution, would deploy to help stabilize

the enclave. That's the theory. Now, Trump has been blunt about what comes next, and Monday was no different. He told CNN, he wants the second phase launch, quote, as quickly as we can, but only if Hamas disarms. More than two months after Trump signed the peace agreement, major pieces of the second phase remain undefined. Trump has warned that Hamas's refusal carries consequences, saying there will be, quote, hell to pay if the terror group does not give up its weapons, though no exact a deadline for the group was given. When asked by reporters what those consequences could look like,

Trump said they would be, quote, horrible, adding that other countries backing the ceasefire, quote, will go in and wipe them out if Hamas continues to not act. late Monday afternoon Trump said he and Netanyahu reached a broad alignment on the path forward and that there was, quote, very little difference between the two leaders. But as for details of the meeting, well, there are few details available. Still Netanyahu echoed Trump's assessment, calling the talks, quote, very, very productive. Trump did acknowledge differences with Netanyahu over how to handle violence in the West Bank, amid ongoing IDF operations, though he declined to elaborate.

saying it would be announced, quote, at an appropriate time. You may remember back in September, Trump said he would not allow Israel to annex the West Bank. That's a step that have carried out. Many regional governments argue would shut the door on a future Palestinian state. Another unresolved issue lies back in Gaza, the fate of the last Israeli hostage,

whose remains have yet to be returned to the Jewish state. An Israeli official said Netanyahu is demanding the return of the body of Ron Gavili before advancing to the next phase of the deal. The family of Gvili, a police officer who was killed during Hamas's 7 October 2023 attacks, urged Trump's team not to move quickly toward the second phase until his remains are returned. Hamas has repeatedly claimed it can't locate his body, citing widespread destruction in Gaza. That's a claim that officials in Jerusalem view skeptically,

given the terror groups continued control in areas of the enclave where his body could be held. Still, as for reaching the second phase, Trump has signaled confidence, although there don't seem to be any moves from Hamas that would warrant that confidence. The coming weeks will determine whether the ceasefire moves forward or collapses under the weight of Hamas's refusal to comply with the ceasefire terms. All right, coming up in today's back of the brief, Kim Jong-un wraps up the year with another warning shot, launching some long-range cruise missiles into the sea. after all, what's more in the holiday spirit than launching a bunch of cruise missiles? It's very festive. We'll have those details when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here, let me take just a moment of your time to talk about financial goals.

Now, that's important, right, as the New Year comes around, and to tell you about a great company out there that's helping people reach those financial goals. Look, you don't need to overhaul your life to start investing. Just automate it. With Stash, your New Year money goals can quietly run in the background while you focus. on everything else going on in your busy life. Stash isn't just another investing app. It's a registered investment advisor

that combines automated investing with expert personalized guidance, so you don't have to worry about gambling or figuring it out on your own. Think about it. Just $3 per month get your access to world-class financial advice and personalized guidance so you can start investing in your future today.

Don't let your money just sit around. Put it to work with Stash. Go to get.stash.com slash pdb to see how you can receive $25 towards your first stock purchase and a few important disclosures. That's get.stash.com slash pdb. Once again, get dot stash.com slash pdb. This is a paid non-client endorsement, not representative of all clients and not a guarantee. These investment advisory services are offered by Stash Investments LLC and SEC registered investment advisor. Investing involves risk. Offer is subject to terms and conditions.

Picture this. Reese Witherspoon in London. Ordering fish and chips so often, they might start wrapping me in paper. I'm traveling with my Wells Fargo Autograph Journey card, so I earn rewards wherever I book travel. Five times points with hotels, four times with airlines, three times on restaurants and other travel, and one point on other purchases. Imagine getting rewarded for eating a toad in the hole. Wait, what is a toad in a hole? Visit Wells Fargo.com slash autograph journey. Terms apply.

A Lego set is a gift that always click. And clicks and clicks. For kids who love to save the day, choose a Lego set. A gift that always clicks. In today's back of the brief, North Korea is back to doing what it does best, launching long-range cruise missiles into the sea and calling itself defense, just as the regime prepares to convene its political leadership in the new year. As it often does, following a weapons test,

the state-run Korean Central News Agency, the KCNA, said the missiles were fired off the country's West Coast and reported that Kim Jong-un expressed, quote, great satisfaction with the test. Well, that's nice. According to KCNA, the exercise was meant to verify the reliability of the country's nuclear deterrent, language the regime typically deploys after weapons demonstrations. Kim framed the launch as defensive, calling it, quote, just a responsible exercise of the right to self-defense and war deterrence in response to what Pyongyang describes as external security threats, which is the regime's way of saying Washington and its allies. South Korea's joint chiefs of staff confirmed it detected several cruise missiles launched from

North Korea's capital region on Sunday. Seoul said it remains prepared to counter any potential provocations through its alliance with the U.S. Now, I want to point out that technically cruise missile tests are not prohibited under the UN Security Council resolutions, which ban North Korea from launching ballistic missiles. But that distinction offers little comfort. Cruise missiles fly at low altitudes, maneuver unpredictably, and can evade radar, making them far more difficult to intercept. The timing of the launches is also notable. They come just days after North Korea released images suggesting progress in the construction of its first nuclear-powered submarine, a development that raises concern among regional security officials that that submarine could at some point be outfitted with nuclear missiles.

The launch also comes ahead of North Korea's planned Workers' Party Congress, its first, in five years. Outside attention will be fixed on whether Kim uses the gathering to lock in new military priorities, harden his position toward Washington, or attempt to pair diplomatic ambiguity with continued weapons development. That approach has defined North Korea's trajectory since Kim's high-profile nuclear diplomacy with President Trump collapsed back in 2019, after talks failed to deliver sanctions relief without meaningful limits on the country's nuclear arsenal. As we've discussed here on the podcast, in the year since the collapse of those talks, Pyongyang has leaned heavily on weapons testing as a way to strengthen its negotiating hand.

Back in September, you may remember that Kim suggested he could return to negotiations if the U.S. abandoned what he called its, quote, delusional obsession with denuclearization, a signal that any future talks would likely be premised on international acceptance of North Korea as a nuclear-armed state. There's a happy thought for a happy new year. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Tuesday, the 30th of December. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at BDB at thefirsttv.com. And with the new year right around the corner, a fine New Year's resolution as we head into 2026 would be to check out and subscribe to our YouTube channel.

See what I did there? Just go to YouTube and find at President's Daily Brief. It's a great way to stay informed throughout the upcoming new year. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Ryan Reynolds here for MintMobil. I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same premium wireless for $15 a month plan that I've been enjoying. It's not just for celebrities, so do like I did and have one of your assistants assistants

to switch you to MintMobile today. I'm told it's super easy to do at mintmobile.com slash switch. Up front payment of $45 for three-month plan equivalent to $15 per month required. Intro rate first three months only, then full price plan options available. Taxes and fees extra. Seeful terms at mintmobile.com.