The President's Daily Brief - December 4th, 2023: Ceasefire Crumbles, Maritime Mayhem, & Venezuela's Annexation Ambitions

Episode Date: December 4, 2023

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief:   We delve into the recent flare-up of violence in Gaza, examining the factors that shattered a week-long ceasefire.   We analyze the renewed aggression against US naval and commercial vessels in the Red Sea, and what it means for the already tense Houthi-controlled waters off Yemen.   We discuss Venezuela's controversial referendum on annexing a large portion of Guyana, and how this could send shockwaves through South American geopolitics.   We provide an on-the-ground perspective of the harrowing terrorist attack in Paris, and its implications for security across Europe.   Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.   Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's Monday, December 4th. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. Kicking off today's PDB, fighting has reignited in Gaza, and we're digging into the details that caused the seven-day ceasefire to collapse. Next, we'll discuss new attacks on U.S. warships

and commercial vessels in the Red Sea, and also how a referendum in Venezuela on disputed territory might shake up regional stability. And in the back of the brief, a terrorist attack strikes the heart of Paris. But first up, the PDB spotlight. Fighting has ramped up again in southern Israel, bringing an end to the seven-day pause in fighting. This escalation follows the release of 110 hostages, which included 86 Israeli nationals. However, the fate of 137 others remains uncertain, as they're still reported to be in Gaza, most under the control of Hamas, and a smaller number being held by the Palestinian Islamic jihad and reportedly some criminal elements within Gaza. Now, over the weekend, Israeli war plans

ramped up their bombardment of the southern Gaza Strip. Israel's military set its ground, air, and naval forces had struck more than 200 terrorist targets in the enclave on Friday morning alone. The action hasn't just returned in the south. Hasbalah has started firing off again, and lobbying mortars and rockets into Israeli civilian communities. In response, Israel has hit back with strikes on Hezbollah bases down in southern Lebanon. So what ended the truce? Well, of course, Israel and Hamas are both playing the blame game, each saying that the other side is responsible for the resumption of fighting. The White House has pointed the finger at Hamas, claiming they dropped the ball by not providing a new list of hostages, which was key to keeping the

ceasefire alive. A recent article in the Wall Street Journal sheds light on why Hamas may have come up short. Now remember, the hostage release deal was all about letting women and children go. Israel said it would keep the peace if Hamas let the last 17 women and children go that are believed to be held hostage in Gaza. However, Hamas contends it has no additional women or children left to release. They're also saying that other groups like the Palestinian Islamic Jihad have some of the women on Israel's list, and they aren't keen on letting them go since they're considered too valuable. Now, Hamas is claiming that they don't have an accurate read or understanding of the remaining women and children, again because those hostages are being held by other groups, not Hamas.

And Hamas is also claiming that they don't have the ability to retrieve those hostages from the other groups in order to have them released. And this is where it's important to be able to tell the difference between crap and Shainola. The reality is, if Yaya Sinwar, the 61-year-old leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, orders Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the few criminal elements holding other hostages to hand them over to Hamas, that is exactly what would happen. Sinwar has been the Hamas leader in Gaza since 2017, when he took over from Ishmao Hanye. Now, Hamas runs Gaza. They know where the hostages are, and they have the ability to retrieve them and make them part of the hostage release effort. Although apparently now, Hamas would like the world to believe that, well, that they don't control what happens in Gaza. Look, I don't want to put too fine a point on it. But at this stage, if anyone believes anything coming from any Hamas entity, whether it's the health ministry in Gaza, the political wing, Sinwar's office, or anyone associated,

with Hamas, well, then they're either naive, willfully ignorant, an anti-Semitic bigot, or simply a useful idiot for the terrorist organization and its Iranian regime overlords. Now, while all this is going down, Israel started to lay out its vision for what things should look like after the dust settles. They're talking about setting up a, quote, security envelope to keep Hamas away from the border post-war. A senior advisor to Prime Minister Netanyahu disclosed plans for special zones and arrangements that would bar Hamas from positions along the Israeli border post-conflict. According to reports, Israel has already reached out to several of its Arab neighbors,

including Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, detailing its intention to establish essentially a buffer zone within the Palestinian territory of Gaza. This proposed buffer is intended to fortify Israel's defense against further hostilities once the war concludes. The interesting part of this concept is that it implies that Israel understands that its original stated objective after 7 October, that the total destruction of Hamas is not achievable. Immediately following the medieval attacks by Hamas into southern Israel, it's understandable that their response would be absolute. there can be no more Hamas. However, reality tends to get in the way of emotion, anger, and despair,

and the reality is counterterrorism is never a zero-sum game. The goal instead should be to degrade Hamas sufficiently, to remove enough of their military command structure, their resources, and their influence within Gaza to ensure that they are as weak and impotent as possible, to strike back at them with such force that you can deter future attacks and terrorist acts. And here's the important caveat, to the degree possible. And then to reassess and strengthen future security measures to ensure to the degree possible that another 7 October event cannot happen. When we return, more mayhem off the coast of Yemen,

and turning to South America, a referendum in Venezuela over a disputed territory that could cause major problems. in the region. I'll be right back. This is Euphoria Calvin Klein, the new elixir collection, featuring three perfume intense scents, inspired by a unique orchid accord, paired with vanilla, each with its own distinct attitude, each with its own universe, bold elixir, sensual, woody, addictive, magnetic elixir, sweet and romantic like a lingering touch, solar elixir, a radiant expression of joy, ultra-concentrated for amplified impact and lasting power. Find your euphoria, discover

the Euphoria Elixir Collection by Calvin Klein. Welcome back. Now, with the resumption of hostilities in Gaza, it appears that attacks on U.S. warships and commercial ships in Houthi-controlled waters off the coast of Yemen appear to have resumed. On Sunday, the USS Carney, an American naval destroyer, was engaged in a tense confrontation with Iranian-backed Houthi militants in the Red Sea. The Pentagon reports that the Kearney was forced to take defensive action against multiple drones attacking a civilian cargo ship known as the Unity Explorer. The Kearney, responding to distress signals from the Unity Explorer, witnessed a ballistic missile targeting the civilian vessel. In a swift response,

the Carney intercepted and destroyed another hooty drone targeting the commercial ship. The prolonged attack, lasting some five hours, marks a significant escalation in the series of maritime conflicts linked to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels have claimed responsibility for attacking the ships in the Red Sea's Bob Al-Mandeb Strait, also known as the Gate of Tears. Now, that's the passage that links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, located between Yemen and Djibouti. The strait is critical to international shipping. The Houthis claim these ships were fair game since they were linked to Israel. That's their rationale.

However, it's worth noting that they did not acknowledge any attempt to target a U.S. naval vessel. And this incident is not isolated. The Houthis are trying to exert dominance over this area, intensifying their maritime assaults launching numerous attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, as well as launching missiles toward Israel. Earlier in November, as covered here on the PDB, the Houthis seized a vehicle transport ship, also believed to be linked to Israel in the Red Sea near Yemen.

The vessel is currently held near the Port City of Haldida. Additionally, just last week, missiles landed near another U.S. warship after it came to the aid of an Israeli-linked vessel that had been briefly captured by gunmen. These recent events highlight a worrying trend of increasing hostility in the region, particularly in the strategic maritime routes. The targeting of commercial and naval vessels by the Iranian-supported Houthi rebels underscores the complexity and the danger of the situation, raising concerns about the safety of international shipping lanes and the potential for further escalation in this region. Now, it also begs the

question, what will the current U.S. administration do to actually deter the aggressive actions, which, while initiated by proxy groups in the region, are at the overall direction of the Iranian regime? Without the Iranian funding and resource support, the Houthi militants would not be launching Iranian drones and missiles at U.S. vessels and cargo ships. And it's the same with the six dozen or so missile and drone attacks that have been carried out on U.S. facilities and personnel at Iraq and Syria since 17 October. At some point, you would think, some enterprising, nonpartisan reporter in the White House or Pentagon will ask the administration for a detailed answer about deterrence, meaning, does the White House believe they've done enough to deter Iranian ambitions in the region?

Now, once the administration spokesperson gives the standard answer, which usually goes something like this, well, we've responded multiple times, and we've made it clear that we'll continue to have the option to respond as we see fit, well, then hopefully the reporter will have a follow-up question along the lines of, okay, well, thanks for the standard non-answer, but given that the attacks continue, do you intend to engage in any actual deterrent? towards the source of the problem, meaning the Iranian regime. Now, mind you, that response doesn't have to be military. If the U.S. and allies had the political will and some Cajones,

they could economically strangle the regime. Look, of course it would take work and allied unity, but at some point, they will have to be dealt with in a meaningful way. All right. Turning our attention to South America, a significant development is unfolding in Venezuela, On Sunday, Venezuelans participated in a referendum initiated by President Nicholas Maduro, aimed at claiming sovereignty over a substantial portion of its neighbor, the country of Guyana.

The focus of this referendum is the Eskibo region, a territory that has been at the heart of a long-standing territorial dispute between Guyana and Venezuela. To understand the dispute, we have to unpack some historical baggage. The roots of this conflict traced back to around 1899 during a tribunal in Paris that sought to define the boundaries of what was then known as British Guiana. However, Venezuelan representatives did not participate in that tribunal, so they view its conclusions as invalid. They argue that since the Iskibo region was part of Venezuela during its time under the Spanish Empire, it should still belong to them now. For decades, the region has been governed by an independent Guyana, but continues to be claimed by Venezuela. Now, this isn't some tiny little area of dispute. The Eskabo region is vast.

It covers some 62,000 square miles and comprises two-thirds of Guyana. It's two-thirds of their country. For comparison, it's an area larger than the state of Georgia in the U.S. The area's importance is amplified by its abundant natural resources, and that might be a clue as to why Venezuela is now making a move. It boasts significant deposits of gold, diamonds, and aluminum. Moreover, the discovery of hydrocarbon deposits off the coast by Exod has transformed the eskibo into a hub for oil and gas interests. The development has dramatically boosted Gianna's GDP, making it one of the fastest growing economies globally. Now, President Maduro has mobile, as government's resources to garner support for the referendum, employing patriotic rhetoric and

dominating state-owned media with this issue. The move has raised alarms in Guyanat, naturally, with concerns that Caracas might strip it of over half of its territory, again almost two-thirds of its territory, and potentially change the nationality of approximately 200,000 residents living in the region, who would then become Venezuelan. The inhabitants of the Askebo region, primarily English-speaking and culturally Guyanese have expressed a desire to remain part of Guiana. They recognize only the Guyanese government as their legitimate authority. Now, you might be shocked to hear that Maduro apparently doesn't care what the people think. Venezuela has given no indication of how it would enforce the referendum, but should it attempt to annex the area,

it could significantly destabilize the region. The international community, of course, is closely watching the development with the potential for far-reaching geopolitical implications. Coming up in the back of the brief, a terror attack in the heart of Paris leaves Europeans shaken once again. I'll be right back. Choice Hotels gets you more of what you value.

Comfort in. It's calling your name. Save on the stay. Oh, and free waffles are yours to claim. Book direct at storeshotales.com. In today's back of the brief, A brutal knife attack on Saturday evening disrupted the calm in France's capital, igniting fresh alarm across Europe. The violent incident, just a stone's throw from the iconic Eiffel Tower, happened as a man brandishing a knife and hammer attacked tourists.

A German citizen tragically lost his life in the attack, with two other sustaining injuries, one being a British citizen. Eyewitness accounts paint a scene of terror with screams of Alaw Abbar, echoing as panic bystanders fled the assailant's rampage. A swift response from the local police saw an officer deploying a taser and successfully subduing the attacker. In the aftermath of the attack, officials revealed that the attacker was known to the country's intelligence services. That's nice. He was known. France's interior minister identified the assailant as a French national previously convicted of plotting violence in 2016. French media went further, identifying the attacker as a French national, born in France, to Iranian parents. The man had previously expressed his support for the Islamic State, and by that,

I mean, he had posted a video online pledging his allegiance to the jihadist group. So, in counterterrorism terms, that would be a clue. The attacker's motive appears rooted in international conflict, citing anguish over the plight of Muslims in Afghanistan and and Gaza. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Monday 4 December. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.