The President's Daily Brief - February 13th, 2026: Japan and the Philippines Named as China's Next Targets & Trump Ends Minnesota Operation

Episode Date: February 13, 2026

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: Taiwan’s president warns that if China takes Taiwan, it won’t stop there. As Beijing pressures Washington over arms sales, we examine whether Taiwan is the objective… or just the first move in a broader regional strategy. The Trump administration announces it is ending its immigration enforcement surge in Minnesota. Officials cite coordination and enforcement gains as reasons for winding down the operation. South Korea’s intelligence agency says Kim Jong Un may be positioning his teenage daughter as North Korea’s future leader, potentially extending the Kim dynasty into a fourth generation. And in today’s Back of the Brief — Israeli reservists are accused of using classified information to place bets on military strikes through the prediction platform Polymarket, raising concerns about operational security in the digital age. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief BUBS Naturals: Live Better Longer with BUBS Naturals. For A limited time get 20% Off your entire order with code PDB at https://Bubsnaturals.com Nobl Travel: NOBL gives you real travel peace of mind — security, design, and convenience all in one. Head to https://NOBLTravel.com for 46% off your entire order! #NOBL #ad DeleteMe: Get 20% off your DeleteMe plan when you go to https://joindeleteme.com/PDB and use promocode PDB at checkout. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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And also, in some parts of the world, tomorrow is Valentine's Day. So try to remember that, fellas. Make sure you pay attention to that special someone. Welcome to the president's daily brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Taiwan's president says that if China takes Taiwan, it won't stop there. With Beijing warning Washington over arms sales,

We'll examine whether Taiwan is the objective or just the first move. Later in the show, the Trump administration says it's ending its immigration enforcement surge in Minnesota. We'll look at why officials say the operation is winding down. Plus, is Kim Jong-un's daughter about to break the glass ceiling? South Korea's spy agency says she may be positioned as North Korea's next leader. And in today's back of the brief, a sign of the bizarre times that we live in, Israeli reservists are accused of using classified information to place bets on military strikes through the prediction platform polymarket.

But first, today's PDB spotlight. We're starting things off today with a recent statement from Taiwan's president, who's sending a warning that goes well beyond the fate of his own nation. President Laichingda says that if Beijing were to seize Taiwan, China's ambitions would not stop there. In an interview this week with AFP, Lai named Japan and the Philippines as potential next targets, arguing that a successful annexation would embolden Beijing and undermine stability across the Indo-Pacific, with ripple effects eventually reaching Europe and even the Americas.

As he put it, quote, If Taiwan were annexed by China, China's expansionist ambitions would not stop there. Now, that's a significant statement and one that's unlikely to say, sit well in Beijing. And Lai isn't just talking. He's backing it with money, pushing for roughly $40 billion in additional defense funding to strengthen Taiwan's deterrence posture. The strategy is clear, raise the cost of invasion high enough that Beijing decides against it. Now, as Taipei pushes for more American weapons, Beijing is pushing back. During a recent call with President Trump, Xi Jinping warned the U.S. to handle arms sales to

to Taiwan with what he described as, quote, extreme caution, calling the issue the most sensitive point in U.S.-China relations. So that puts Washington in a rather unique predicament. Continue arming Taiwan and risk escalating tensions with Beijing, or slow down and risk weakening Taiwan's deterrence at precisely the moment that its leadership says the threat is growing. Now, Lai's warning could sound like overheated rhetoric to some, but expanding the scope of the threat beyond Taiwan strengthens the case for sustained Western military backing, a communication strategy that has worked effectively for Ukraine's President Zelensky. But it does raise a deeper question.

Does China see Taiwan's reunification as its endgame, or is it just the opening move? I'm not presenting this as official Communist Party doctrine, of course, but in 2021, a widely circulated Chinese op-ed laid out what was called a, quote, six wars pathway. and was a long-term sequence of territorial confrontations aimed at what the author described as restoring China's historical position. So what did that roadmap envision? Well, I'm glad you asked. The first target is Taiwan in the opets framing.

Unification is not a question of if, but when. And force remains an acceptable option if that peaceful integration fails. The author argues that a decisive campaign would reassert Beijing's authority and fundamentally alter the regional balance of power, sending a message that outside intervention cannot reverse China's rise. Next, the South China Sea. After Taiwan, the focus shifts south, consolidating control over disputed island chains like these Spratly's and reinforcing maritime claims that Beijing already backs with Coast Guard

patrols and artificial islands and military installations. The theory is that once Taiwan falls, Southeast Asian claimants would be like, less inclined to resist, calculating that Washington might hesitate to confront China again so soon after a major conflict. Third is what Beijing calls southern Tibet. That refers to India's Arunegal Pradesh. That's territory the China claims, but New Delhi administers. The peace speculates the Beijing could take advantage of regional instability or even heightened India-Pakistan tensions to shift the balance along their contested Himalayan border, an area that's already seen deadly clashes in recent years. Fourth is the Sankaku Islands, known in China as Diayu.

These islands are administered by Japan and fall under the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty, meaning any military action there could immediately involve the U.S. In the op-ed's telling, a short decisive conflict would test alliance resolve and potentially fracture the regional security architecture that's defined the Indo-Pacific for decades. Fifth is Mongolia. Here the argument leans heavily on historical narrative, invoking Qing-era borders and the idea that Mongolia's independence represents unfinished business from a period of national weakness. It's less about imminent conflict and more about long-term leverage, the assumption being that by mid-century, China's economic and military dominance would make resistance increasingly difficult. And finally, Russia's far east.

The peace even references 19th century unequal treaties that transferred vast territory to the Russian Empire during a period of Qing decline. While modern Beijing maintains a strategic partnership with Moscow, of course, the inclusion of Russia in the list goes to a broader theme, that historical grievances are not permanently settled. Now, just to be clear, this was an opinion piece, not a government and white paper, and there's no public evidence that Beijing has officially adopted such a time. timeline. But here's the reason that it's worth paying attention to. When you look at China's current behavior, expanding naval operations around Taiwan, pressuring the Philippines and the South China Sea, maintaining friction along the Indian border, accelerating military modernization goals tied to 2027 and 2035, the broader question becomes harder to dismiss. Is Taiwan the outer boundary of Beijing's ambitions or part of a larger regional reshaping? From Beijing's, for

perspective, Taiwan is an internal matter, unfinished a Civil War business. That's the official line. But from Taipei's perspective, and increasingly from Tokyo and Manila, Taiwan is the front line of a much larger strategic contest. All right, coming up next. The Trump administration winds down its immigration enforcement surge in Minnesota, and new intelligence suggests that Kim Jong-un may be grooming his daughter to extend his family's rule into a fourth generation. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, after the holidays, you remember those, right? I was completely knocked off my routine.

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Now, to understand what's coming to an end, you have to go back to how this began. On the 29th of November, the administration deployed more than 3,000 immigration agents to the Twin Cities. Before that surge, just 100. 150 federal immigration agents had been operating in the city. It was a dramatic expansion, of course, of federal presence in a city of about 400,000 people with only about 600 police officers. And then, well, there are the arrest numbers. According to the Department of Homeland Security, DHS,

immigration officers and agents arrested over 4,000 undocumented immigrants since the operation kicked off, although DHS has not provided a breakdown of how many of those faced criminal charges. The scope of enforcement is apparent. In addition to those arrests, more than 200 people were taken into custody for allegedly impeding federal law enforcement operations. Trump administration officials said the enforcement gains, combined with improved coordination with Minnesota County jails and local law enforcement, reduced the need for such a large federal footprint. Speaking at a news conference in Minneapolis, borders are Tom Holman,

said the cooperation made it easy for federal law. authorities to identify and apprehend targets. Homan said, quote, I've proposed and President Trump has concurred, that this surge operation conclude, end quote. So, what can we expect next in the Twin Cities? Well, in practical terms, Homan's announcement means a significant drawdown is underway and will continue into next week. He said he'll remain on the ground, quote, for a little longer to oversee that transition.

Last week, he announced that 700 agents would be sent home as part of the reduction. But Holman was clear about one point. The end of the surge does not mean the end of enforcement. He said, quote, if you're in this country illegally, you're not off the table, adding that not all federal officers would be removed, citing safety reasons. Now, as we covered here on the PDB, federal authorities shot and killed two U.S. citizens during separate confrontations during the course of this surge. 37-year-old Rane Good and 37-year-old Alex Preti.

DHS said good, quote, weaponized her vehicle and attempted to run over an officer in what it described as a, quote, active terrorism, prompting an ice agent to fire three shots. But Minneapolis mayor, Jacob Fry, described the federal account as, quote, garbage. In Prezzi's case, he became involved in a confrontation with federal agents while recording with his phone when DHS claimed he, quote, brandished a weapon, forcing agents to fire, quote, defensive shots. Now, video of that incident taken from several different angles by bystanders calls into question the government's version of events. A federal civil rights investigation led by the FBI is underway into the incident with Preti. All right, I want to turn to the Korean Peninsula, where new

intelligence suggests Pyongyang is likely preparing for life after Kim Jong-un, and it's successor could be his daughter. South Korea's spy agency says the regime appears to be positioning her as the next link in a four-generation dynasty. Seoul's National Intelligence Service, or NIS, but delivered this update in a closed-door briefing to lawmakers on Thursday, just weeks before a major Workers' Party Congress in Pyongyang. And these regime gatherings aren't routine political meetings. They're tightly scripted events where Kim lays out his agenda for the next five years and

reinforces control over the system built by his father and grandfather. Now, NIS officials will be watching for something very specific, whether Kim's daughter, who was about 13 years old and widely believed to be named Kim Jouet, appears alongside him before party delegates. In North Korea, that kind of public positioning isn't random. Who stands next to the leader, and how often they appear, is carefully coagrapped. A prominent role at this Congress would likely say, signal that long-term leadership planning for Pyongyang is already underway. And we've seen a

pattern building. Kim Ju-A. first appeared publicly in November of 2022, not at a school event or cultural ceremony, but at a strategic long-range missile test. Isn't that what all kids love to do? Since then, she's accompanied by her father to weapons demonstrations, military parades, and factory inspections, the kind of events that are central to the regime's messaging. Last September, she traveled with him to Beijing for his first summit with Chinese leader Shishing Ping in six years. That appearance especially stood out. And speculation intensified again last month when she joined her parents on a New Year's Day visit to Pyongyang's Palace of the Sun. That's mausoleum, where Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il lie in state. In North Korea's political culture,

that site represents the lineage of power, so her presence there, alongside her father, is worth noting. Now, South Korean officials initially doubted whether a daughter could even inherent power in a system that has since 1948 passed leadership from father to son. However, her increasingly prominent role in state events has prompted a reassessment. In an earlier briefing, the NIS said Kim's decision to bring her to China appeared to be part of a broader effort to shape a narrative around her future leadership. In this latest update, officials pointed to her presence, at symbolic family ceremonies and cited signs that Kim Jong-un has even begun seeking her input on certain policy matters. At the same time, much about her remains opaque. North Korean state

media has never publicly named her, referring only to Kim's quote, respected or most beloved child. So, you may be asking, where did we even learn about her name? Hmm, it came, somewhat improbably, from former NBA star Dennis Rodman, who said he held Kim's baby daughter during a 2013 visit to Pyongyang. Now, for those of you unfamiliar, Rodman made multiple trips to North Korea around that time and described Kim

as a personal friend in what could be described, at the very least, as an odd relationship. So, thanks to the five-time NBA champion, we have an idea of who she is. And she may not be Kim's only child. In 2023, the NIS told, lawmakers that Kim and his wife likely have an older son and younger third child whose gender remains unknown. So the internal family dynamics still remain unclear. It's also important context that

Kim Jong-un himself was only 26 years old when he was designated the next new leader in 2010, two years after his father suffered a stroke. When Kim Jong-il died in 2011, Kim assume power with limited preparation. So it's believed that his own personal experience may be shaping how early he's introducing his own potential successor. So what should we watch for next? Well, the upcoming party Congress could offer subtle clues. Party rules require members to be at least 18 years old, so it is unlikely that she would immediately receive a formal title. Okay, coming up in today's back of the brief, a troubling breach of operational security is rarely reservists. allegedly used classified information to place bets on military actions.

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on the platform polymarket. The civilian defendant is accused of participating in the scheme and helping place some of the bets, according to reporting from the Wall Street Journal. Israeli authorities allege the bets centered on the timing and likelihood of specific military operations, allowing the pair to potentially profit from advanced knowledge of classified plans. The indictment was reportedly filed in a Tel Aviv court after an investigation involving Israel's Shembet Security Service, military officials, and also national police. Officials have not publicly detailed the precise nature of the operations referenced in the indictment or revealed the identities of the accused, but the pair are charged with committing serious security offenses, bribery, and obstruction of justice.

It's worth noting, however, that the arrests followed reports in Israeli media that Shinbet had been investigating a series of polymarket wagers last year connected to speculation of when Israel might launch an attack on Iran ahead of the 12-day war, including which day or month an operation might begin and when it would conclude. Prosecutors have not explicitly stated whether these arrests relate to that investigation, but said the case represents a serious breach of operational security during a period of ongoing regional tension. The Israel Defense Forces, the IDF, in its own response,

stressed that, quote, no operational harm was caused in this specific incident, but strongly condemn the behavior, calling it, quote, a grave ethical failure and a clear crossing of a red line. An IDF statement said disciplinary action would be taken against anyone found guilty and that measures are being taken across all IDF units to prevent similar cases from recurring. Now, beyond the criminal charges themselves, the case highlights the modern vulnerability in wartime information security. Prediction markets like Polymarket allow users to wager money on real-world events,

from elections and economic data releases to geopolitical developments. The platforms operate legally in many jurisdictions outside the U.S., and their odds can shift rapidly based on emerging news. But in a wartime context, those markets can also create a form. financial incentive to exploit inside knowledge, or worse, to leak or manipulate sensitive information. Israeli prosecutors argue that even the act of placing such bets risks exposing the timing of operations or signaling to foreign observers that specific actions may be imminent. In intelligence terms, unusual betting activity tied to military questions could itself become a form of unintended disclosure. So while the case does not suggest that broader Israeli

operational plans were compromised at scale, it does underscore now digital markets and instant global information flows have created new terrain for insider threats, terrain that military institutions built around traditional secrecy models are struggling to adapt to. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Friday the 13th of February. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today. with the BDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed.

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