The President's Daily Brief - February 14th, 2024: Fears Rise Of War With Russia, Chaos In Pakistan, Farmers Revolt, & Japan Seeks North Korea Summit

Episode Date: February 14, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief:     Estonia’s foreign intelligence service is warning that the Putin regime plans to double the Russian troop presence along the NATO border, and is gearing up for a potential war with Europe within the next decade. Pakistan was recently thrown into political chaos following national elections last week that left no clear winner, resulting in a hung parliament. We'll discuss the latest developments. Farmers across Europe continue to rally against their governments, protesting draconian EU environmental rules, cheap foreign imports, falling product prices, and overall rising costs. In our 'Back of the Brief' segment, we’ll discuss efforts by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to push for a summit with North Korea’s increasingly belligerent dictator Kim Jong Un. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.     Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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It's Wednesday, 14 February. Oh, which means, at least in many parts of the world, where you may be listening from, it's Valentine's Day. I hope you have a good one. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. We'll kick things off in Eastern Europe, where Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service

is warning that the Putin regime plans to double the Russian troop presence along the NATO border and is gearing up for a potential war with Europe within the next decade. Somebody, please, get Putin some flowers and chocolates because that dude needs some softening up. Later, we'll look at Pakistan's recent election and the political chaos that has since ensued. And as a reminder, political chaos is always unwelcome in a country that has nuclear weapons. Plus, farmer protests continue to sweep across Europe as the sector, rebels against draconian environmental proposals. And in today's back of the brief, we'll discuss efforts by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to push for a summit with North Korea's increasingly

belligerent dictator Kim Jong-un. Kim's another fella in need of a Valentine's Day hug. But first up, the PDB spotlight. Let's begin in Eastern Europe with the latest warning from NATO allies regarding Putin's long-term plans for the continent. Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service issued a stark warning on Tuesday that Russia is preparing for a military confrontation with Europe within the next decade. Kauperosin, the Director General of the Estonian Service, said their intelligence indicates that the Putin regime will soon double the number of troops stationed along its border with the Baltic states in Finland as part of a long-term build-up. And that's according to a report from the Financial Times. The assessment came from an annual report released by Estonia's intelligence service that concluded, quote, Russia has chosen a path which is a long-term confrontation.

Now, Rosen stressed that while Russia is not yet, quote, willing to conduct any military action towards NATO, we see that the Russians in their own thinking are calculating that military conflict with NATO is possible in the next decade, end quote. The Estonian Chief of Intelligence recommended a counter buildup of armed forces by NATO members to deter future actions by Russia. He concluded that the likelihood of a Russian attack is, quote, much higher if NATO countries don't prepare in the short term and match Russia's buildup along their eastern flank. In addition to troops, Rosen warned that we'll see an increase in armored personnel carriers, tanks, and artillery systems over the coming years. Now, it's worth noting that a similar buildup was seen along the Ukrainian border ahead of Moscow's

invasion in February of 2022. Estonia is just the latest European country to warn of a potential future conflict with Moscow, following similar statements over the past month from leaders in Poland, Germany, Sweden, the UK, and Denmark. Just last week, Denmark's defense minister said new information had come to light that suggested Russia may attack Europe within the next three to five years. Last month, Germany announced plans to mobilize 4,800 combat-ready troops to the NATO border region by 2027, and that would mark the first foreign deployment of German troops since World War II. Estonia's warning to Europe came on the same

day that Russia added Estonian Prime Minister Kajighalas to their wanted list. Maria Zakarova, a spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Minister, accused Kallis of destroying monuments to Soviet soldiers. Zacherova did not specify the exact nature of the charges, but said that, quote, crimes against the memory of the world's liberators from Nazism and fascism must be prosecuted, end quote. Makes you wonder how she feels about all the statues being taken down in the U.S.

While Russia has placed a number of senior Ukrainian officials and generals on their wanted list since the outbreak of the war, Callas marks the first time that a European head of government has been targeted by the Putin regime since the Ukrainian conflict. Now, Callas has been a leading voice in Europe, rallying support for Ukraine since Russia's invasion, particularly when it comes to convincing European allies to increase military assistance to Ukraine. The Estonian Prime Minister brushed off the Kremlin's accusations on Tuesday, calling their actions, quote, nothing surprising. She added, quote, The Kremlin now hopes this move will help to silence me and others, but it won't.

The opposite, I will continue my strong support to Ukraine, she said. I will continue to stand for increasing Europe's defense, end quote. Now the prime minister there is alluding to one of the biggest failures of Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Putin had banked on NATO splintering in its support for Ukraine and imagined that his invasion would put a spotlight on what what he perceived as a weak institution. The fact that the opposite has happened, that his military adventurism has instead strengthened and actually grown NATO, is a major blow to his strategic calculations. All right, coming up after the break, we'll discuss the political chaos in Pakistan that followed their controversial national elections, as well as the ongoing protests in Europe

by the farming sector. I'll be right back. Welcome back. Pakistan, was thrown into political chaos following national elections last week that left no clear winner, resulting in what's referred to as a hung parliament. I will now avoid the obvious double entendre and easy opportunity for low-rent humor, because here at the PDB, of course, were more sophisticated than that. The election, which was already marred by allegations of corruption, saw all three of the country's political parties fail to reach a majority, meaning none had the requisite number of seats to form a government. Allies of imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan's PTI party captured 93 out of the 266 National Assembly seats that were up for grabs, and that's the

largest share of any of Pakistan's political parties. It was a particularly shocking outcome, given that members of the PTI were forced to run as independents and barred from holding campaign rallies. Still, despite the show of public support, PTI members did not secure enough votes to lead the country, and they face opposition from a political class that still holds grievances against the PTI party from Kahn's time as Prime Minister. Meanwhile, the Pakistan Muslim League Noz or PMLN captured 75 seats in Parliament, while the Pakistan People's Party, or the PPP, netted 54 seats. Amid the uncertainty, Reuters reported on Tuesday that the PPP had agreed to give their support

to the PMLN, I hope you're following all this, to form a minority government, which would end the country's political stalemate. The coalition will reportedly nominate former prime minister and PMLN member Shabaz Sharif to lead the government. Now, former president, Asif Ali Zardari, co-chairman of the PPP, said Tuesday, quote, we have decided that we will form a government together to take Pakistan out of crisis. Notably, PPP leaders said that while they will support electing Sharif as Prime Minister, they will not be actively joining the government, and their support of Sharif is reportedly conditioned on the PMLN meeting several unspecified demands. Observers say that while the delicate coalition deals with the immediate leadership crisis facing

Pakistan, the fragile nature of the alliance does not bode well for long-term stability in the nuclear-armed country. Adding to the chaos are allegations of widespread vote rigging and fraud. A number of groups have already filed legal challenges contesting the outcome, with allies of the imprisoned Khan particularly angry over what they feel was a stolen election. We'll keep an eye on this situation. Pakistan is an important player on the global stage. All right, shifting gears back to Europe. Farmers across the continent continue to rally against their governments, protesting draconian EU environmental rules, cheap foreign imports,

falling product prices, and overall rising costs. That is a fairly robust list of complaints. On Tuesday, farmers in Belgium blockaded streets with hundreds of tractors, causing major disruption in the Antwerp port area in Spain. As protests entered their seventh day, farmers continued their blockade of some of the country's busiest roadways, as did farmers in Moldova and Poland. The chaos has been widespread in recent weeks, with farmers across Europe, closing down public motorways and clashing with police. The popular uprisings have mimicked recent protests by European truckers who have faced similar economic concerns within the EU. Some trucker unions, such as Spain, briefly joined the farmers in solidarity. While anger differs from country to country over these specific domestic issues, the farmers are widely united in opposition to environmental proposals from Brussels that threaten to devastate Europe's agricultural sector. Earlier this year, the European Union had proposed a number of

measures that upset farmers, including a crackdown on pesticide use, and a plan to force farmers to cut non-CO2 emissions by 30% from 2015 levels, and that's according to a report by the guardian. The protesters won a victory on this front last week. The EU ditched plans to curtail pesticide use, remove the non-CO2 emission cuts from a draft proposal, and delayed rules on setting aside areas of farmland for protection. Critically, the EU will also omit the agricultural sector from strict stipulations on all industries to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 90% before 2040. 90% before 2040. Yeah. The EU wants to become carbon neutral by 2050 and has a stated goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by a staggering 55% by 2030. Honestly, shutting down the gas bags who sit in Brussels dreaming up

self-righteous proposals, well, that would reduce emissions significantly. Despite the concessions, farmers are also contending with extreme environmental and financial crackdowns within their own countries. In the Netherlands, the government plans to cut nitrogen emissions in half by 2030, in part by drastically cutting livestock numbers. Yeah, no more farm animals. In Germany, the government is phasing out tax breaks on agricultural diesel, and Italy is removing an income tax exemption that has existed for farmers since 2017. The protests do appear to be wearing down individual governments within the block, with many now engaged in negotiations with many, members of their agricultural sectors. In France, however, the head of the nation's biggest farming

union said Tuesday that protests would resume if the government does not meet their demands regarding pay increases and better working conditions. Agricultural experts in Europe say the discord between governments and the agricultural sector are likely to continue ahead of EU parliamentary elections in June. The farmer protests have become a focal point of these elections, which will likely determine the future of the EU's Green New Deal. Overall, the farmer and trucker protests of recent months are largely indicative of the broader social and economic unrest currently plaguing Europe. Coming up in today's back of the brief, we'll look at efforts by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Koshita to push for a summit with North Korea's increasingly belligerent dictator Kim Jong-un.

I'll be right back. Today's back of the brief, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is pushing hard behind the scenes for a meeting with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un. The Japanese Premier is reportedly seeking the release of Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea decades ago, in part to boost his own approval numbers, which have plummeted to below 30% amid a political scandal, according to a report by the Financial Times. The last time that a Japanese prime minister and North Korean leader met face-to-face was back in 2004. A summit would be particularly notable in light of Kim Jong-un's increasingly aggressive behavior towards South Korea.

Recently, North Korea has effectively cut off diplomatic ties with their southern neighbor and ended their decades-long commitment to reunification with the South. Kim Jong-un continues to use aggressive rhetoric, threatening to annihilate South. with nuclear weapons if provoked. Yeah, I suppose we could call that aggressive rhetoric. Despite some progress in Japan's back-channeling with North Korea, insiders familiar with the diplomatic talks say that Kim Jong-un has been evasive and is refusing to cooperate on the issue of Japanese abductees.

Officials in the U.S. in South Korea say that while they would welcome a thawing of relations between Japan and North Korea, they are concerned about the possibility of concessions to the Kim regime. Go Myeong-hun, a senior fellow at the Asian Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, told the Financial Times, quote, the North Koreans are playing games with the Japanese and the South Koreans, hoping to drive a wedge between them by feeding Seoul's fears that Tokyo could do a deal with Pyongyang behind its back, end quote.

And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Wednesday, 14 February. And don't forget, if you're lucky enough to still have one around, give your mama shout. Tell her happy Valentine's Day. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. All. Pay off your home, travel for life, drive a Ferrari.

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