The President's Daily Brief - February 16th, 2026: US Military Plans Weeks-Long Iran Ops & Arctic Carrier Deployment

Episode Date: February 16, 2026

In this episode of The President’s Daily Brief: We break down a new report that the U.S. military is preparing for potentially weeks-long operations against Iran, even as another aircraft carrier deploys to the Middle East and nuclear negotiations resume in Geneva.  Later in the show — Britain announces it is sending an aircraft carrier strike group to the Arctic, citing a rising Russian threat amid broader geopolitical tensions.  We also explore how the Pentagon reportedly used advanced artificial intelligence during the raid that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro — a sign AI’s battlefield role is expanding. (Source: The Wall Street Journal) And in today’s Back of the Brief — European officials allege Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny was killed with a rare poison dart frog toxin, intensifying accusations against the Kremlin.  To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President’s Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Cozy Earth: Visit https://www.CozyEarth.com/PDB & Use code PDB for up to 20% off Ultra Pouches: Don’t sleep on @ultrapouches. New customers get 15% Off with code PDB at https://takeultra.com! #UltraPouches #ad HomeServe: Protect your home systems from costly repairs with HomeServe—plans start at $4.99/month at https://HomeServe.com.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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It's Monday the 16th of February. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, a new report says the U.S. military is preparing for a potentially weeks-long operation against Iran, as President Trump deploys another aircraft carrier to the region. I'll have the details. Later in the show, in what's likely a nod to President Trump,

Britain announces it's sending an aircraft carrier strike group to the Arctic citing a growing Russian threat. Plus, European officials, say Russian opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, was killed with a rare toxin derived from South American poisoned dart frogs, accusing the Kremlin of orchestrating his death. Well, because, well, because they did orchestrate his death. And in today's back of the brief, in the latest sign of artificial intelligence's growing role on the battlefield, the Pentagon reportedly used AI during the raid, the

captured Venezuelan leader Nicholas Maduro. But first, today's PDB spotlight. A new report from Reuters suggests that the U.S. military is preparing for something far more prolonged against Iran than the limited strike against its nuclear sites that we saw last year. According to two U.S. officials speaking anonymously, the Pentagon is drawing up plans for a potentially weeks-long military operation against Iran, not a one-night strike, but a sustained campaign should the White House give the order. Last year's so-called Midnight Hammer operation involved stealth bombers flying from the U.S. to hit Iranian nuclear facilities. It was precise, it was limited, and it was over quickly.

Iran responded with a restrained retaliatory strike on a U.S. base in Qatar, and both sides then stepped back. This time, officials say the planning is more complex. A sustained campaign could target not only nuclear infrastructure, but Iranian state and security facilities as well. that dramatically expands the scope and the risk, and for that I award myself today's PDB statement of the obvious award. And U.S. officials reportedly expect Iran to retaliate. Oh, there's another statement of the obvious award. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has already warned that any strike on Iranian territory would trigger attacks on U.S. military bases across the region, and there are plenty of them. There in Jordan and Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab

Emirates and Turkey. That's where the force buildup becomes important. As we reported on Friday, it's now been confirmed that the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier, is being deployed to the Middle East. The Ford is fresh off operations related to Venezuela, and while it's not yet clear which escort ships will accompany it, the carrier itself brings considerable firepower. Its air wing includes four squadrons of FAA 18 fighters, multi-role aircraft capable of air superiority, precision strikes, and maritime attacks, along with a squadron of EA 18G growlers, specialized electronic warfare jets, designed to jam enemy radar and suppress air defenses. That air wing is engineered for contested airspace.

It's what you deploy when you expect sophisticated missile systems and layered defenses. However notably absent from the conversation so far would be ground troops. Now, President Trump has long expressed skepticism about putting American boots on the ground in Iran. The current posture suggests any action would rely heavily on air and naval and potentially special operations capabilities. That would align with now the administration handled Venezuela, using targeted force rather than anything resembling a large-scale occupation. And the rhetoric has also escalated. Speaking at Fort Bragg, President Trump openly floated the idea of regime change in Tehran. saying it, quote, seems like that would be the best thing that could happen.

He did not specify who would replace the current leadership, but he made clear that, in his view, the status quo has run its course. Meanwhile, Iranian opposition figure Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the former Shah, told Reuters that U.S. military intervention could accelerate the regime's collapse. He argues that the clerical government is already weakened internally, that outside pressure could tip it over the edge. But while military planning accelerates, on another track, diplomacy continues. Iran and the U.S. are set to hold another round of nuclear talks in Geneva next week,

with Oman acting as mediator. The first round took place on the 6th of February. The Trump administration has maintained that Iran cannot retain any uranium enrichment capability under a new deal. Tehran has flatly rejected that demand, insisting its nuclear program is peaceful, and that it will not give up enrichment entirely. Before last year's conflict, Iran had enriched uranium to 60% purity. Now, that's a short technical step from weapons-grade levels, and it's far above the 3-5% needed for any peaceful use.

Complicating matters further, the International Atomic Energy Agency has been unable for months to fully inspect and verify Iran's nuclear stockpile. President Trump has warned that failure to reach an agreement would be, quote, very traumatic. Gulf Arab states meanwhile caution that any strike could spiral into a broader regional war. So here we are. On one track, aircraft carriers, strike fighters, electronic warfare jets, and contingency plans for sustained operations. On the other, negotiators heading to Geneva, trying to hammer out a nuclear agreement. All right, coming up next. Britain dispatches an aircraft carrier

strike group to the Arctic, and European investigators say a rare toxic. A very toxic derived from poison dart frogs, was used to kill Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, you likely know me as the host of the president's daily brief. Well, I mean, hopefully, you know me as the PDB host. But I'm also quite the expert on romance and gift giving. Did you know that?

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He said the deployment will be led by the HMS Prince of Wales and operate alongside the U.S., Canada, and other NATO allies, in what will be a visible show of allied coordination in a region that's becoming increasingly contested. The area referred to as the high north, as we've been tracking here on the PDB, is essentially the Arctic and its surrounding waters, and it's no longer just a frozen backwater. Starmar made clear he doesn't believe that Russia's military buildup will slow, even if the war in Ukraine does come to an end. In fact, he warned, the Kremlin's military presence could only accelerate. The Prime Minister argues that Europe must be prepared to deter aggression, and if necessary fight, saying, quote, we must build our hard power because that is the currency

of the age, end quote. That line about hard power tells you exactly how London views this moment. The British Carrier Strike Group centered on the HMS Prince of Wales, which is the Royal Navy's roughly $3.5 billion-dollar flagship will include 40 aircraft, along with a frigate, a destroyer, a submarine, and supply vessels. The announcement dovetails with President Trump's renewed focus on Arctic security and, of course, on Greenland. Trump has repeatedly made the case that Greenland is vital to national security, a strategic necessity, as Russia attempts to fortify its Arctic sea lanes. Trump has framed the issue not solely as a real estate transaction, but as strategic positioning in an era of great power competition.

Speaking outside the White House, Trump confirmed Washington is, quote, negotiating right now for Greenland. He also highlighted NATO burden sharing, something he's pushed for years. The president told reporters, quote, if it wasn't for me, NATO countries would be paying 2% and not paying.

They're paying 5% now, and they are paying. We have a very good relationship with NATO, end quote. His statement comes amid a media whirlwind, citing U.S. ambitions for Greenland, merely a territorial power grab and detrimental for European and NATO relations. Now, that one-sided narrative does, in fact, ignore the very real security interests of the U.S. and its allies in the region, particularly as Moscow militarily reinforces its northern frontier. Now, I want to turn your attention to a story that's faded from the headlines.

That would be the mysterious death two years ago, the imprisoned Russian opposition figure, Alexi Navalny. Now, when I say mysterious, what I mean is not so much who killed him. That would be Vladimir Putin's minions. The mystery wasn't exactly how he was killed. When Russia's most prominent opposition figure, Alexei Navalny collapsed in a remote prison colony, Moscow blamed illness. And for two years, the Kremlin has maintained that fiction. But European capitals now say lab tests confirm he was killed with a rare toxin from poison dart frogs.

According to five European governments, which include the United Kingdom, Sweden, Germany, and the Netherlands, recent laboratory analysis of Navalny's remains identified epibodidine, a powerful toxin derived from the amphibian native to South America. For background, epibodidine is an extremely potent neurotoxin. It's a very small dose can disrupt the nervous system and breathing. The European governments did not specify how the toxin was administered, only that Navalny was in custody at a penal colony north of the Arctic Circle at the time. The capitals do, conclude, however, that Moscow had, quote, the means, the motive, and opportunity to administer the poison. Of course, the latest report directly contradicts the Kremlin's original account.

When Navalny died in February of 2024, Russia's prison service said he, quote, felt unwell, uh-oh, after a walk, and, quote, almost immediately lost consciousness. In Moscow's account, there's no mention of any toxins or suggestions of foul play. Well, that is shocking. I mean, after all those other poisonings by the Kremlin, of dissidents and opposition figures like Alex Litvinenko and Sergei Scrippel and others, the Kremlin always admitted it was their doing. It was their foul play. Oh, wait, no, no, no they didn't. I'm sorry. Now, as you may recall, Navalny was no obscure inmate or opposition figure. He was Putin's most prominent political opponent, a figure who organized a nationwide protests

and published investigations alleging corruption at the highest levels of the state. He'd already survived one poisoning attempt back in 2020 when he was struck with Novichok, a Soviet-era nerve agent, and was evacuated to Germany for treatment. A later investigation by CNN and the investigative journalism group of Bellingat linked the attack to operatives of Russia's Federal Security Service, or the FSB. As you can assume, the Kremlin denied involvement in that as well. Putin at the time said, if the FSB were truly behind the attack, it, quote, would have finished the job, like we did with the other dissidents and opposition figures. I added that last part of the quote.

Still, this latest allegation fits into an existing record of chemical agent accusations surrounding Navalny. And when it comes to the U.S.'s response to the latest findings, Washington is not disputing the report. Secretary of State Marker Rubio described the findings as, quote, troubling, saying the Trump administration is aware of the conclusions and would not challenge them publicly, siding with the five European governments.

Moscow, meanwhile, and here this will. surprise you, has dismissed the claims outright. Russian state news agency tasks quoted the country's foreign ministry spokeswoman calling the findings, quote, propaganda. The Russian embassy in the United Kingdom labeled the announcement, quote, a political pageant, accusing Western governments of manufacturing accusations against the Kremlin. I also want to highlight that the timing of the latest European findings is notable. The announcement came during the Munich Security Conference, the same venue where Navalny's death was first announced two years ago.

Speaking there again over the weekend, his widow said she had been certain from the beginning that he was poisoned and there was now proof, stating, quote, Putin killed Alexi with a chemical weapon. She later posted on X that, quote, Putin is a murderer, he must be held accountable for all his crimes.

The five European governments have formally written to the organization for the prohibition of chemical weapons, describing Navalny's death as a, quote, Russian breach of the chemical weapons convention, end quote. Well, okay then. That should change the Kremlin's ways. When all else fails, a harshly worded memo usually does the trick.

All right, coming up in today's back of the brief, new reports reveal the Pentagon used artificial intelligence during the raid that captured Venezuelan leader Nicholas Maduro. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. So it's 2026, well, you knew that. And New Year, new you, right? Isn't that the old saying?

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It really is the recreational activity vehicle. The stylish 2026 Toyota Rav4 Limited. What's your Rav 4? History is complicated. The story of human progress is long, messy, and riddled with controversies big and small. On conflicted, we dive headfirst into history's most infamous events and contentious figures. We try to entangle the good from the bad, the fact from the fiction, and the monsters from the misunderstood. From boundary-shifting conflicts like the partition of India or the Soviet-Afghan War,

to enigmatic personalities like the Byzantine Empress Theodora or the depraved Marquis de Saad. There's no shortage of fascinating topics to investigate on conflicted. So if you love history or just enjoy a good story, go and check out Conflicted wherever you get your podcasts. In today's back of the brief, it's been over a month since Washington's Operation Abyssal Resolve captured Venezuelan leader Nicholas Maduro. And new details are still emerging about that operation, including the revelation that an artificial intelligence system was used in the raid. According to a Wall Street Journal exclusive report, citing people familiar with the matter, Anthropics' artificial intelligence model Claude was incorporated into the mission. Now, Anthropic, the Silicon Valley AI company behind Claude, has not specified precisely

how the model was used during the operation, which, as we've long discussed, included American air power and strikes on multiple sites in Caracas. The report says the development occurred through Anthropics' partnership with Palantir Technologies, whose software platforms are widely used by the Department of War and federal law enforcement. Palantir builds systems that aggregate massive streams of surveillance and operational data, enabling defense agencies and law enforcement to analyze patterns and coordinate missions in real time. In other words, if Claude was deployed through Palantir's architecture, it would have been operating inside the digital backbone of modern military decision-making. Now, here's where things get interesting. Anthropics' public usage policies

prohibit Claude from being used to facilitate violence and develop weapons or conduct surveillance. A company's spokesman declined to confirm whether the model was used in the operation, stating, quote, we cannot comment on whether Claude or any other AI model was used, classified or otherwise, end quote, adding that any deployment must comply with company policies. The Department of War declined to comment. In the journal's report, following the raid, an Anthropic employee asked a counterpart at Palantir how Claude had been used during the operation, suggesting perhaps internal sensitivity about the deployment. A spokesman later said that Anthropic had not discussed Claude's use in specific operations, quote, with any industrial partners, including Palantir, outside of routine discussions

on strictly technical materials, end quote. And here's why this matters. Anthropic became the first AI model developer to have its system used in classified Pentagon operations under a contract worth up to $200 million awarded last summer. That contract reflects the Trump administration's push to ensure Washington leads in advanced AI, not just commercially, but militarily. That relationship has come under strain, the Wall Street Journal previously reported, that administration officials weighed canceling the contract amid disputes over how the model can be used. in combat environments. At the center of that debate is the fundamental question, who decides how far military AI can go. Anthropics leadership advocates for guardrails on advanced AI systems,

including restrictions on autonomous lethal uses and domestic surveillance. Those constraints frustrate Department of War officials, including Secretary of War Pete Hecks-eth, who said at a January event that the Pentagon would not, quote, employ AI models that won't allow you to fight war. end quote. That philosophy is shaping how the administration approaches AI partnerships. As strategic competition with China intensifies and adversaries modernize their own capabilities, Washington signals that it does not intend to fall behind in integrating advanced technology into national defense.

So the reported use of Claude in Operation Absolute Resolve suggests the era of theoretical military AI is ending. The battlefield has become data-driven, software, integrated and increasingly algorithmic, even as terms of service agreements, slow full implementation. It's a subject, obviously, worth keeping an eye on. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Monday, the 16th of February. Now, if you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, please reach out to me at at thefirsttv.com. And hopefully you had a chance to catch the latest episode of our extended weekend show.

That would be the PDB Situation Report. If not, well, don't fret. can catch it and past episodes on our YouTube channel. That's at President's Daily Brief, and on podcast platforms, wherever you get your podcast stuff. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool. Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money, whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto's trillion dollar swings. There's a money side to every story. Get the money side of the story. Subscribe now at Bloomberg.com.