The President's Daily Brief - February 19th, 2024: Iran’s Proxy Pause, Avdiivka Falls, & Al Qaeda’s Comeback

Episode Date: February 19, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: A remarkable shift in the Middle East as attacks on US forces by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria see a significant decline. We explore what��s driving this unexpected change. The focus shifts to Ukraine, where Russian forces celebrate their largest triumph in months, seizing control of Avdiivka amidst the ongoing conflict. Afghanistan's security situation deteriorates with a noted resurgence of al-Qaeda activities, challenging the region’s stability. In the 'Back of the Brief,' we delve into Russia’s internal affairs with fresh revelations about the demise of Alexei Navalny, Putin's staunchest opponent.   Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.   Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's Monday, 19 February. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. We'll start today's show with a somewhat surprising development in the Middle East. Attacks on U.S. forces by Iranian-backed proxy groups have almost completely ceased in Iraq and Syria. We'll examine the potential reasons behind this development. Later, we'll turn to the battlefield of Ukraine, where Russia, has claimed its biggest victory in nearly a year by raising its flag over the bombed-out city of Avdivka. Plus, we'll revisit Afghanistan, which is currently and, unsurprisingly, witnessing a resurgence of al-Qaeda. Finally, in today's back of the brief, we bring you an update from Russia, where new details

continue to emerge about the death of Putin's most prominent critic Alexei Navalny. and when I say most prominent critic, I mean basically the only vocal critic. But first up, the PDB spotlight. As you're undoubtedly aware, particularly if you've been listening to the PDB, since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war, American troops have been under near-constant attack by Iranian-backed proxy groups in Iraq and Syria. In total, there have been more than 180 such attacks,

culminating in the Tower 22 attack in Jordan that took the lives of three American service members. That attack was followed by retaliatory strikes from the U.S. in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen back in early February. Well, it seems like Iran might have gotten the message, or perhaps more to the point, they're taking a pause to rethink their strategy. As of today, it's been 15 days since Iran-backed militias have attacked U.S. forces, That's the longest pause and attacks since the start of the conflict in Israel. So what happened? One U.S. official, speaking to the Washington Post, said of the lull, quote,

Iran may have realized that their interests are not served by allowing their proxies unrestricted leeway to attack U.S. and coalition forces. According to multiple Iranian and Iraqi sources speaking to Reuters, the head of Iran's elite Quds Force, Eshmael Kani, visited Baghdad last month. month and convinced groups aligned with Tehran to halt the attacks on U.S. forces, saying it's a sign that Tehran wants to prevent a broader conflict. Now, it's really not so much a broader conflict that worries the Iranian regime. It's taking a direct hit from the U.S. and allies. The clandestine meeting reportedly took place on January 29th, and that would be less than 48 hours after Washington

blame the groups for the Tower 22 attack. The report goes on to say that although the leaders of these groups were unhappy with the request, all but one immediately agreed. The next day, Kataib Hezbollah, the group that was directly responsible for the Tower 22 drone strike, was pressured to issue a public statement announcing its intention to suspend its attacks on U.S. targets. One smaller group, known as Nuzjaba, said it would continue attacks, but they've yet to follow through on on that promise. According to a senior Iraqi security source, the Kud's force commander did not leave Baghdad airport during that quick visit, fearing that he could meet the same fate that his predecessor, Kassam Soleimani, met four years earlier at the same location. Iran is also

reportedly urging Lebanon-based Hezbollah to take a similarly measured approach to U.S. forces, publicly praising the group, but privately telling them that they're not keen on sports. sparking a wider war in Lebanon or anywhere else. Now, again, it's not a wider war that the regime is concerned about. They have no problems allowing their proxies to take the hits. What the regime doesn't want is to be attacked directly and have their infrastructure and their grasp on power targeted and threatened. However, not all of Iran's proxies are ready to play nice just yet.

Yemen's Houthis continue their attacks on the commercial vessels in the Red Sea, just this weekend, the group claimed responsibility for a missile attack on another oil tanker in the Red Sea. That attack was followed up by a U.S. strike against the group, targeting anti-ship cruise missiles, an unmanned underwater vessel and an unmanned surface vessel. All right, coming up next. Russian forces achieved their first major victory in close to a year, pushing Ukrainian troops out of the city of Vavidivka. also ahead, some disturbing but unfortunately not surprising news from Afghanistan, as the Taliban once again allows the country to become a safe harbor for a resurgent al-Qaeda.

I'll be right back. Welcome back. We've got a major update from the war in Ukraine. On Sunday, Ukrainian troops completed a withdrawal from Avdivka, marking an end to months of brutal fighting in and around the city, which really is now little more than a bomb. out shell of its former self. The withdrawal is seen as a major win for Russian forces, as Avdivka has been a frontline city going all the way back to Russia's initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014. This is Russia's biggest battlefield victory in nearly nine months when the city of Bakhmud

fell. The fall of Avdivka will allow the Russian troops to push their offensive further west deeper into Ukrainian-held territory than over less well-defended areas. Now, General Alexander Siersky, the new head of Ukraine's armed forces, announced the move saying, quote, I decided to withdraw our units from the town and move to defend from more favorable lines in order to avoid encirclement and to preserve the lives and health of servicemen, end quote.

Speaking in Munich on Saturday, Ukrainian President Zelensky blamed the difficulties on what he called a, quote, artificial deficit of weapons and ammunition, particularly in our artillery shells and long-range ordinance. Zelensky urged Western nations to continue their support of his nation's efforts and to speed up deliveries of the weapons that they desperately need. Now, Russia's victory didn't come without major costs.

According to UK Defense Intelligence, Russia's efforts cost the country nearly 400 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and other hardware, as well as thousands of personnel, Ukraine puts the cost at more than 17,000 Russians killed and at least 30,000 wounded, although those numbers can't be independently confirmed. In another parting shot, Ukrainian forces also reportedly shot down three Russian jets. Figures on the losses sustained by the Ukrainian military are harder to come by, but those are likely significant as well. In the wake of their latest victory, Moscow has leveled new threats at the West,

threatening to fire nuclear missiles on London, Washington, Berlin, and Kiev, if Russia is forced to give up the Ukrainian territory that is captured since the start of the war. Dmitri Medvedev, who's the former president of Russia and a close ally of Putin, and over the past few years, frankly, Putin's favored mouthpiece and attack dog, said if a military defeat led to a return to the 1991 borders, when the Soviet Union collapsed, that Moscow would unleash, quote, Armageddon. Medvedep said that a defeat of Russia would lead, quote, towards a global war with Western countries, using the entire strategic arsenal of our state in Kiev, Berlin, London, Washington,

end quote. He added, will we have the courage to do this if the disappearance of a thousand-year-old country, our great motherland is at stake, and the sacrifices made by the people of Russia over the centuries will be in vain? The answer, he said, is obvious, end quote. He added, Am I being a dramatic douche nozzle and spewing hyperbole and nonsense, despite this war being our fault? The answer is, again, obvious, end quote. Okay, that last quote was entirely made up. But hopefully you get the point.

All right, I want to turn back to the Middle East. We're getting some disturbing news out of Afghanistan. According to a report from the UN Security Council issued in late January, al-Qaeda is experiencing a resurgence in Afghanistan under the ruling Taliban, setting up eight new training camps around the country. Look at that. What's old is new again. How disappointing, to say the least. This resurgence signals a breach of the Taliban's commitment to the Doha agreement with the U.S., which required the group to cut ties with al-Qaeda. Now let's all take a moment and put on our

shocked faces at the idea that the Taliban is breaching a commitment. Contrary to their pledge, the Taliban have reportedly been providing protection. and support to al-Qaeda since they took over Afghanistan in 2021, following that, what's the word I'm looking for, withdrawal of U.S. forces. The training camps are distributed across several provinces. The report details al-Qaeda's logistics, including routes for moving operatives through Iran and a new weapons base in the Pansir Valley, just north of Kabul. Al-Qaeda's efforts to fortify its presence are not confined just to remote areas. They've also reportedly, set up multiple safehouses in Koppel, which serve as a hub for the transit of militants and communications

between al-Qaeda's in-country leadership and its high command based in Iran. In addition to military infrastructure, al-Qaeda has founded new madrasis. These, of course, are not benign educational facilities, but are indoctrination centers where children are steeped in the organization's extremist doctrine. At least five such institutions are said to be operational. I mean, after all, doesn't just happen. You have to teach and instill it at an early age. The Taliban's reaction to the UN report has been dismissive, there's a surprise, labeling it as propaganda. They've publicly denied any affiliation with al-Qaeda within Afghanistan's borders, asserting, quote, there is no one related to al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, nor does the Islamic

Emirate allow anyone to use a territory of Afghanistan against others, and quote. Seriously, If you can't trust the Taliban, who can you trust? All right, coming up in the back of the brief, we've got the latest details about the death of Russian President Putin's most prominent critic, Alexi Navalny. It does beg the question, what will Putin do with himself once he's killed all of his opponents and critics? I mean, the man's going to need a new hobby. All right, I'll be right back. Exema is unpredictable, but you can flare less with ebbglis.

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Don't use if you're allergic to Epglis. Allergic reactions can occur that can be severe. Eye problems can occur. Tell your doctor if you have new or worsening eye problems. You should not receive a live vaccine when treated with Epgless. Before starting Epglus, tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection. Ask your doctor about Evglis and visit abglis.com or call 1-800-LillyRX or 1-800-545-979. In today's back of the brief, I wanted to follow up on the death of Russian opposition leader Alexi Navalny,

as we get new details about the circumstances surrounding his death. As we reported on Friday, Navalny was found dead in the IK3 or Polar Wolf Penal Colony, located in a remote part of Russia north of the Arctic Circle. He was serving a three-decade-long sentence there. According to reports, the 47-year-old outspoken critic of Putin, was found with, quote, signs of bruising on his head and chest. A paramedic told Russian opposition media that the bruises on Navalny's head were a result of seizures, while the one on his chest was caused by efforts to resuscitate him.

Reporters said no autopsy had yet been performed on the opposition leader's body, which won't be turned over to his family until an investigation is completed. Now, here at the PDB, we look forward to a completely transparent investigation and the release of all details related to Navalny's death no matter how damaging they may be to Putin. Just kidding, the investigation will be a complete sham and there will be no consequences. And I hope that that doesn't make me sound too cynical. Russian officials told Navalny's 69-year-old mother and his lawyer on Saturday that he died of, quote, sudden death syndrome, a vague term for supposedly unexplained cardiac arrest.

Thousands have come out to mourn the death of the opposition leader, and according to reports, over 400 people have been detained so far for paying tribute in over a dozen cities. OVD Info, a group that tracks political arrests and provides legal services, said more than 200 arrests took place in St. Petersburg alone. Moscow was also among the cities where Navalny supporters were taken into custody, some already sentenced to almost a week in jail. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Monday, 19 February. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com.

I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. USAA knows dynamic duos can save the day, like superheroes and sidekicks or auto and home insurance. With USAA, you can bundle your... auto and home and save up to 10%. Tap the banner to learn more and get a quote at usaa.com slash bundle. Restrictions apply.