The President's Daily Brief - February 19th, 2026: 90% Chance Of War? Inside The Iran Escalation & Secret China Nuclear Test

Episode Date: February 19, 2026

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief:  New reporting suggests a potential conflict with Iran may not be months away, but weeks or even days, as diplomatic talks stall and military preparations accelerate on multiple fronts. Sources warn that a joint U.S.–Israeli operation could be larger than many anticipate, while Tehran also appears to be preparing for the worst. American officials have unveiled new seismic data supporting claims that China conducted a covert low-yield nuclear test. Beijing denies the accusation, but the new evidence could further strain already tense relations between Washington and Beijing. Amid shifting political dynamics and declining trust in American security guarantees, several European nations are openly discussing the possibility of developing independent nuclear deterrent capabilities. The United States plans to deploy additional advanced missile systems to the Philippines to counter China in the South China Sea, a move that has drawn sharp criticism from Beijing and raises the stakes in the Indo-Pacific. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Trust & Will: Estate planning doesn’t have to be complicated—create your will or trust online in minutes with Trust & Will and get 20% off at https://trustandwill.com/PDB  Ultra Pouches: Don’t sleep on @ultrapouches. New customers get 15% Off with code PDB at https://takeultra.com! #UltraPouches #ad Sundays for Dogs: Upgrade your dog’s food without the hassle—try Sundays for Dogs and get 50% off your first order at https://sundaysfordogs.com/PDB50 or use code PDB50 at checkout. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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All right, let's get briefed. First up, some sources are warning that a U.S.-Iran war may be just weeks or even days from breaking out as diplomatic talks falter and military preparations accelerate. I'll have the details. Later in the show, a follow-up to a story we brought you last week. U.S. officials have now revealed seismic data backing allegations that China conducted a secret low-yield nuclear test, a claim that Beijing continues to deny.

Plus, the shifting political landscape is pushing Europe to reconsider its nuclear posture, with some nations now openly discussing the development of independent-to-turned capabilities. Well, I don't see how expanding the nuclear club could go wrong. And in today's back of the brief, the U.S. plans to deploy additional advanced missile systems to the Philippines. What is going on? Reinforcing its posture in the South China Sea and drawing sharp criticism for Beijing. Well, that's no surprise. And after all of that, if you're feeling somewhat stressed, may I suggest a nice cold martini, or perhaps a nice hot cup of tea, whichever floats your boat. All right, up first, today's BDB spotlight. It's beginning

to look like the risk of a U.S.-Iran war may be closer than many realize, with some sources now suggesting it may be a matter of weeks or even days. Earlier this week, we reported that U.S. planners were preparing for the possibility of a weeks-long conflict if diplomacy failed. That alone was, of course, significant. At the same time, negotiators emerging from the latest round of nuclear talks projected cautious optimism, after all that is what negotiators do, but behind the scenes, there was no meaningful breakthrough on the core issues dividing Washington and Tehran.

Now, new reporting suggests the situation may be moving beyond contingency planning and into active positioning. According to Axios, multiple sources close to the White House and Pentagon say that the Trump administration is closer to a major conflict with Iran than most Americans realize. That conflict, if it comes, would be far larger than last year's limited U.S. operations, resembling a full-scale campaign rather than a narrowly scoped strike. One senior advisor told Axios that President Trump, quote, is getting fed up and said that there was a 90% chance of kinetic action within the next few weeks. The advisor said that while others around the president urge caution, many in Trump's inner circle see military action as increasingly likely given Tehran's stance. Axios also reports that in planning discussions, U.S. and allied military leaders are contemplating a joint American-Israeli operation against Iranian targets. The operation being planned is much larger in scope than the 12-day Israeli-led bombing campaign of last June, a campaign that itself provoked Iranian retaliation, although it was limited, given the damage that they suffered during the 12-day war.

That assessment tracks with reporting from the Times of Israel, which adds two significant elements to the picture. First, the outlet cites flight tracking data showing rapid movement of fighter jets into the region, deployments that suggest preparations for more than just routine patrols. Second, it reports that Israel is preparing domestically for possible conflict, enhancing civil defenses and war readiness ahead of a potential military campaign. Former Israeli Defense Forces Military Intelligence Chief Amos Yadlin quoted in that story said Israeli strategic planners believe the region is, quote, much closer than before, to a full-scale confrontation.

Meanwhile, U.S. officials continue to publicly claim that Washington will prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons one way or the other. Taken together, these elements paint a picture of escalation risk that's higher and more immediate than many observers had assumed only days ago. Meanwhile, it also looks like Iran itself is preparing for the worst. Reporting from the Wall Street Journal indicates that Tehran's leadership is not sitting passively by as talks continue. Instead, Iranian authorities are strengthening military readiness and civil defenses, dispersing command structures to reduce vulnerability to strikes, and positioning Revolutionary Guard naval units in strategic choke points, such as the Strait of Hormuz.

Satellite imagery also shows that Iran is fortifying, sensitive military and nuclear sites, burying entrances to tunnels and repairing facilities damaged in past conflicts, which would complicate any prospective campaign against them. These actions signal that Iran is preparing for conflict, even as it engages, sort of, in diplomacy, a dual approach that suggests Tehran views war as a plausible outcome if negotiations fail. Add to that the broader context in which Iran's leadership has publicly asserted readiness for war if provoked, and you have both sides acting in ways that reduce the margin for de-escalation. Iranian statements reflect a belief that miscalculation could trigger conflict, and officials have sought to emphasize that any U.S. strike

would spark a broader regional confrontation. From a risk assessment standpoint, the convergence of these indicators, accelerated force deployment by the U.S. and Israel, Iranian preparations on multiple fronts, hardened political rhetoric, and the lack of diplomatic breakthrough, suggests a set of dynamics in which both sides are positioning for possible confrontation rather than de-escalation. Now, none of this, of course, means that war is inevitable. Look at that. I'm a glass-half-full kind of guy. diplomats continue to meet, and some minor progress was reported in narrow technical areas in Geneva. But as force postures harden and timelines tighten, the gap between negotiation and confrontation does appear to be shrinking. Ooh, okay, maybe I'm a glass half-empty kind of guy.

All right, coming up next, the U.S. unveils new seismic data to back its claim that China conducted a secret nuclear test. while across Europe leaders openly debate whether it's time to pursue independent nuclear deterrence of their own. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take just a moment to talk about something very important, and that is planning for your future. Look, no one wants to talk about dying, right? But the reality is creating an estate plan can provide you and your family with tremendous peace of mind. With trust and will, you can create one in as little as 30 minutes. in order to protect guardianship of children, asset distribution, and health care directives.

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How do you take something great and push it to greater? You test it. So that's what Kia did with the 2027 Kia Telluride X. Pro. With multi-terrain mode, 9.1-inch ground clearance, and front recovery hooks, it's made to take on even greater challenges. The all-new Kia Telluride X-Pro, built for the greater. Learn more at Kia.com. Welcome back to the PDB. In recent weeks, we've been following signs that the nuclear testing taboo, long treated as a red line, even among rivals, is beginning to fray. Now, Washington says it has new evidence to back up recent claims that China has crossed that line. As we discussed earlier this month, senior State Department officials alleged Beijing secretly conducted a low-yield nuclear test back in June of 2020

and made every effort to avoid triggering global detection systems. Now, according to Assistant Secretary of State, Christopher Yeom, a monitoring station in Kazakhstan detected a magnitude 2.75 seismic event back on the 22nd of June in 2020. That signal, he argues, originated near China's Lopnor Nuclear Site, which is a desert facility that's long served as the center of Beijing's nuclear testing program. For those of you who have experienced an earthquake, you know that a 2.75 magnitude event is not enormous, right? It's not the kind of tremor that causes visible destruction. You most likely would barely feel it. However, it is large enough to register on seismic sensors worldwide. And as Yoder, you know,

noted the signal recorded that day did not resemble a natural earthquake, nor did it look like mining activity. Yoa acknowledged that Washington does not know the precise yield of the suspected explosion. He also said China may have attempted to mask the blast seismic signature, essentially dampening the signal to make it harder to interpret. But despite that uncertainty, he said that the U.S. is confident, a nuclear explosive test did take place. And that's a serious allegation, and one, of course, that Beijing continues to deny. Chinese Communist Party officials insist that they abide by the terms of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.

Well, okay, if the Chinese Communist Party says so, then, even though that document never formally entered into force because several countries, which include the U.S. and China, never ratified it. And here's where the latest evidence becomes more complicated. The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization initially said it detected zero evidence of a Chinese explosion on that date. That account seems to undercut Washington's claim from a few weeks ago. But now, well, now the organization's executive secretary clarified that two very small

seismic events were, in fact, recorded on the 22nd of June 2020, just 12 seconds apart. Oh, the complication, however, of course, is scale. The monitoring network says it can reliably detect underground explosions equivalent to roughly 500 tons of TNT. For context, the bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima, measured. about 15,000 tons. The suspected events in June 2020 were far smaller, and because of that, the organization says it's, quote, not possible to assess the cause of these events with confidence, using seismic

data alone. So what we have here is a narrow technical gray zone, which includes measurable seismic signals, but no definitive proof of their cause. The timing of the latest evidence comes since President Trump is preparing for a summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in April. At the same time, Washington is pressing Beijing. to join potential new arms control talks alongside the U.S. and Russia. And those discussions are happening against a shifting backdrop. The New START Treaty, which capped U.S. and Russian long-range

nuclear arsenals, has expired. For the first time in decades, there are no binding limits on the world's two largest nuclear stockpiles. China, which was never party to that treaty, is rapidly expanding its own arsenal. U.S. intelligence estimates place Beijing's stockpile at 600 warheads, with projections of 1,000 by the end of the decade. CCP officials argue their arsenal remains comparatively smaller and therefore should not be subject to trilateral limits. So, you ask, what has changed since we first discussed the story here on the PDB? Well, for now, the allegation itself remains contested.

What has evolved is the level of detail. Washington is no longer speaking in general terms. The administration now has a specific date, measurable seismic magnitude, and a location directly tied to China's primary test site. Okay, sticking with nuclear talk, because why wouldn't we? Europe is openly confronting a question that would have been almost unthinkable just a few years ago. At the Munich Security Conference, officials debated whether the continent needs an additional nuclear backstop of its own, a discussion driven by Russian aggression and pressure from Washington for allies to share. shoulder more of their defense burden. Now, let me walk you through what actually happened in Munich.

Senior officials, particularly from NATO's eastern flank, signaled that they're willing to explore what a more Europe-centered nuclear posture might entail. For decades, the assumption has been simple. The American nuclear umbrella is Europe's ultimate guarantee. Now, that hasn't changed, but the intensity of the debate about whether Europe should add another layer alongside it has. And it starts with the Baltics. Estonia's deputy defense minister said her country is, quote, always open to discuss deeper nuclear cooperation, while stressing that the U.S. remains committed to Allied security. Latvia's prime minister asked bluntly, why not, when it came to a European-centric nuclear deterrence,

though she emphasized compliance with international obligations. And if you're asking why this conversation is servicing now, well, the answer begins and mostly ends with Russia. European officials are watching Moscow's military posture closely, including warnings that nuclear assets could be repositioned closer to the EU, particularly in Belarus. Whether confirmed or not, the perception alone sharpens the debate. At the same time, the Trump administration has continued pressing Europe to take more responsibility for its own defenses, especially on conventional capabilities. As a result, there is declining confidence in some European capitals of America.

security guarantees. Now, I want to pause on that for just a moment because it's no secret that President Trump has long criticized NATO members for underinvesting in defense. But I do want to point out that U.S. officials have said the nuclear umbrella is not going away. Under Secretary of War, Elbridge Colby has repeatedly stated that it will remain intact. In practical terms, any European nuclear expansion would center on France and the United Kingdom, the continent's only nuclear power. Now, France, unlike Britain, is not part of NATO's nuclear planning group. That's the alliance body that coordinates nuclear policy discussions. Some governments want Paris to be more integrated into NATO's nuclear structures, but French

officials signal that there are no plans to join. French President Emmanuel Macron has called for, quote, re-articulating nuclear deterrence to account for both atomic and advanced conventional systems. He's expected to lay out France's approach, more fully, in a major speech next month. But behind the scenes, discussions involving France and Germany and others remain in early stages. A policy paper circulating at the conference in Munich outlined six options from doubling down on U.S. guarantees to expanding the French and British role, creating a so-called Euro deterrent, or strengthening conventional forces alone even.

Two senior European officials suggested capitals could theoretically support France's arsenal by contributing conventional assets or even subsidizing its expansion. Of course, not everyone agrees that this is the right direction. Spain's prime minister warns that this approach is, quote, not the right way. Well, that's fairly clear. And NATO Secretary General Mark Ruta made clear that any debate must reinforce, not replace America's role. But some capitals are pushing further.

Poland's newly elected president said he supports his country joining a nuclear project to counter what he described as Russia's, quote, aggressive imperial attitude. Warsaw has also explored hosting American nuclear weapons under NATO's sharing agreements and has held talks with both Washington and Paris. But I do want to highlight that Poland, considering construction of its own nuclear weapons, would be extraordinarily difficult and would disrupt long-standing non-proliferation norms. The more likely result would be deeper nuclear sharing integration or reliance on French or British guarantees. Essentially, this is about the continent, confronting the reality that deterrence in this era

will require continued American leadership, but also greater European capacity. Okay, coming up in today's back of the brief, a new missile deployment to the Philippines, signals that the U.S. is strengthening deterrence against China's increasingly aggressive actions in the region. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. So here we are in 2026, right? What's the old saying new year, new you? But what if you're not feeling like a new you, right? You know what I mean? What if you're if you're not sleeping well or if recovery after work or a workout is harder? Or maybe stress is just out of hand. Well, maybe you try to stay clear-headed with caffeine or even stuff

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The State Department confirmed Tuesday that Washington plans to deploy additional advanced missile systems and unmanned platforms to the Philippines, deepening a military partnership rooted in a 1951 mutual defense treaty and directly challenging China's aggressive posture in the South China Sea. Senior U.S. and Philippine officials met in Manila this week for annual talks regarding the Mutual Defense Treaty, issuing a strongly worded joint statement condemning what they describe as Beijing's, quote, illegal, coercive, aggressive, and deceptive activities in the disputed waters. The language was unusually blunt, underscoring how seriously both governments view Beijing's increasingly belligerent maritime tactics. They move as sure to anger leaders of the Chinese Communist Party, the CCP, They get angry over a lot of things, who have repeatedly objected to such missile deployments, claiming the defensive posture of the U.S. and Philippines threatens regional stability. Now, as our regular listeners know, the Philippines has been, arguably,

the most outspoken Southeast Asian nation in pushing back against China's sweeping maritime claims. China continues to claim essentially the entirety of the South China Sea as its own, a waterway that carries roughly a third of global maritime trade. Now Manila has responded by taking Beijing to international court, repeatedly exposing so-called gray zone harassment by Chinese vessels and expanding military access for U.S. forces across key bases in recent years. In 2024, for example, the U.S. Army moved its typhon missile system into the Northern Philippines, a platform capable of striking both land and maritime targets, including mainland China.

The system remained in place after joint exercises concluded, signaling something more durable than a temporary training deployment. And last year, U.S. Marines positioned another missile system, the Navy Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System, on an island close to Taiwan, giving Allied forces additional anti-ship reach in the event of a regional flare-up. Tuesday's statement did not specify what new systems would be deployed next,

only that both nations would, quote, increase deployments of U.S. cutting-edge missile and unmanned systems, end quote. One likely window for that expansion will be their annual large-scale joint exercises that begin in April. The Philippines, along with U.S. forces stationed there, would play a central wall in any American effort to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion or blockade. Geography makes it unavoidable. Northern Philippine bases sit along the first island chain. It's a critical line of deterrence in U.S. Indo-Pacific planning.

As I mentioned, Beijing has consistently opposed to the U. these deployments, arguing that they destabilize the region. But from Washington's perspective, positioning long-range missile systems in the contested waters complicates Chinese planning and raises the cost of any move against Taiwan or against U.S. Treaty Allies in the South China Sea. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Thursday, the 19th of February. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And if you get the chance, I hope you'll check out our,

YouTube channel. Just head on over to YouTube and search up at President's Daily Brief. And feel free to hit the subscribe button if you like what you see. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool. Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile, the message for everyone paying big wireless way too much. Please, for the love of everything good in this world, stop. With Mint, you can get premium wireless for just $15 a month. Of course, If you enjoy overpaying, no judgments, but that's weird. Okay, one judgment.

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