The President's Daily Brief - February 1st, 2024: Tiered Retaliation, Ukraine’s Manpower Struggles, & China on the Ropes

Episode Date: February 1, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: The latest intelligence on expected U.S. military response to the deadly attack on American personnel. A potential breakthrough between Israel and Hamas to end hostilities and release hostages. Ukraine's struggle with manpower in the ongoing conflict with Russia. Disturbing economic tremors from China with a major property developer’s collapse and tightening grip on internal criticism. A closer examination of TikTok's policies and whether it is living up to its promises of data protection against foreign surveillance.   Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.   Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's Thursday, one February. Look at that, a brand new month. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. We'll kick off today's show with two important updates from the Middle East. U.S. officials have revealed new details about the expected retaliation after a drone attack killed three American service members. Meanwhile, in a bit of rare positive news from the region, Israel and Hamas appear close to striking a deal to cease weeks of conflict and to release hostages held in Gaza. Later in the show, we'll explore Ukraine's fresh challenge in its conflict with Russia, as officials urgently address a growing manpower shortfall in their military forces. Plus, we'll look at signals of distress in China's economy, and this is something. something to watch, highlighted by the fall of a major property developer and new domestic controls on dissent as the Chinese regime puts the kibash on negative talk about the economy, while

Chinese leader Xi Jinping searches for the meaning of the word kibosh. And in today's back of the brief, we'll investigate shocking claims that TikTok, a Chinese-owned social media platform that you may be aware of, has not upheld its commitment to safeguard American data from Chinese government access. And by shocking, I mean, it's not shocking at all. But first up, the PDB spotlight. Let's begin with an update on the U.S. retaliatory strikes against Iranian-backed targets following this weekend's attack on a U.S. base in Jordan, which resulted in the deaths of three American service members and injuries to at least 40 others. Government officials are giving us the first indications of what the upcoming strikes may entail. Now, a U.S. official,

speaking to ABC News, informed the outlet that the strikes would be carried out, quote, over the course of several days and would target multiple sites. The officials stated, these are going to be very deliberate targets, deliberate strikes on facilities that enabled the attacks. Now, the official would not disclose whether any of the targets would be inside or outside of Iran. The official also didn't explain why the White House is spending more time talking about their response than actually doing it. Perhaps. Perhaps the strategy is to talk the intended targets to death. The official's comments reflect those of Pentagon spokesman John Kirby,

who mentioned during a White House press conference that the U.S. is likely to adopt a tiered approach, involving not just a single action, but multiple actions over time. Honestly, it's like sitting through all those previews in a movie theater before getting to the main attraction. Somebody needs to unask the sofa over at the White House and issue a command. Meanwhile, Iran's ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saeed, issued a threat to the U.S. on Wednesday, following President Biden's public statements that links Tehran to the attack. Saeed declared, quote, The Islamic Republic would decisively respond to any attack on the country, its interests, and nationals under any pretexts, end quote.

Now, Saeed clearly has no sense of irony, given that Iranian proxies have now launched to 166 different. missile and drone attacks on U.S. and allied personnel and facilities in the region. All right, we're turning our attention now to the conflict between Israel and Hamas to update you on a potential agreement that could lead to a prolonged ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages. Reports indicate that a broad framework for a deal was agreed upon by negotiators in Paris this weekend and is currently being presented to Hamas leadership. The negotiation included the heads of Israeli and Egyptian intelligence, CIA Director William Burns, and the Prime Minister of Qatar. The deal would result in the release of all civilian hostages held by Hamas in Gaza during a six-week pause in fighting.

Additionally, the proposal calls for the release of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel at a rate of three prisoners for each hostage, and the temporary redeployment of Israeli troops from high population areas of Gaza. It would also see a significant increase in humanitarian aid to the enclave. Furthermore, the Framework Deal includes provisions for additional pauses beyond the initial six weeks, during which time Israeli military captives and the remains of hostages who died in captivity would be released. There appears to be substantial optimism regarding this deal, with part of the framework having been tentatively accepted by the Netanyahu government, a senior Israeli official indicated to NBC News that there are, quote, strong indications that the deal would progress.

All right, coming up after the break, Ukraine is now dealing with a new hurdle in its war against Russia, with government officials scrambling to solve the military's growing manpower issue. Plus, new indicators that China's economy is on the ropes, including the collapse of a major property developer. I'll be right back. Welcome back. We turn our attention to Ukraine, which is facing a recruitment crisis as it continues to repel the Putin regime's invasion. It's a manpower problem that has been building as the war enters its third year. On Tuesday, the military submitted an amended version of a bill that lays,

out a new mobilization plan for the Army, following backlash to an earlier proposal submitted late last year. If it passes, the bill will allow the government to initiate new conscriptions and tighten punishments for draft dodging. The updated language provides, quote, transparent rules for the mobilization process, as well as necessary regulation of the rights of servicemen and conscripts, end quote. These provisions include rest periods, mandatory military training for recruits, that's a good thing, financial compensation and legal protections for registered servicemen to travel inside the country. Notably, the bill would lower the minimum draft age for combat duty from 27 to 25. Those trying to avoid the draft will also be subject to measures by the courts,

including having their assets and bank accounts frozen, as well as restrictions on travel and use of a personal vehicle. Ukraine's parliament had rejected an earlier version of the proposal after public backlash regarding several provisions, including the proposed crackdown on draft Dodgers' property and financial rights. While the new bill reportedly softens language around those issues, the fundamental proposals remain the same. With the war grinding into a third year and a stalled counteroffensive on the front lines,

Ukraine is increasingly desperate for new recruits. volunteers are no longer showing up at recruitment centers as they once did, and the number of criminal cases opened regarding draft dodging have reached roughly 9,000. In December, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy revealed a proposal from the military that called for mobilizing an additional 450,000 to 500,000 Ukrainians into the armed forces. General Valerie Zelousini, the commander and chief of Ukraine's armed forces said at the time that the number was based on the military's best projections of possible losses at the hands of Russia's military. The timing of this mobilization crisis really could not be worse, as reports emerged earlier this week that Zelensky has moved

to fire General Zilluzni from his post after a month's long feud. Insiders say that Zelensky sees General Zilluzni as a potential political rival, given his popular. throughout Ukraine, which some polls show is higher than Zelensky's. The Financial Times first reported on the discord within Ukraine's ranks, with sources telling the paper that Zelensky offered Zolluzheny a new role as a defense advisor to move him out of the way, but that General Zilluzzi refused that offer. Kiv has not yet officially acknowledged any leadership changes, however, his ousting would likely provoke uproar within the country. All right, shifting gears and locations, I want to look at the deteriorating economic situation

in China, which has been rocked by its fourth straight month of contracting manufacturing activity and the recent collapse of real estate Titan Evergrand. China's National Bureau of Statistics revealed Wednesday that factory activity in China has declined again in January, with little signs of relief on the horizon. As we've previously discussed here on the BDB, China is contending with a stubborn economic slowdown across a variety of sectors, driven by low business confidence, rising unemployment, low consumer demand, a deteriorating real estate market, and unstable debt, particularly massive amounts of local government debt.

The latest figures suggest China's shaky post-COVID economic recovery will struggle to regain its footing in the year 2024. That, of course, would be this year. While GDP growth in China hit 5.2% last year, this was largely the result of China lifting their zero COVID policy, which had previously driven growth down to 3% in the year 2022. Economic analysts say it will prove much more challenging to achieve the same pace of expansion in 2024. In addition to their manufacturing woes, China is facing stubbornly high youth unemployment,

declining consumer prices, and creating. during home prices and property sales. Credit rating agency Moody's also revised its view of China's government debt in December, shifting the outlook from stable to negative. And adding to their recent troubles, a Hong Kong court ordered the liquidation of the real estate giant Evergrand Group on Monday after they failed to restructure, get this, their $300 billion debt. Their fall from grace was Swift, having been listed as the world's most valuable real estate company as recently as 2018. Their restructuring plan began to unravel last year after their CEO came under criminal investigation, and he had once been listed as one of the richest people in all of Asia.

The collapse will have a significant impact on China's already over-leveraged and debt-ridden real estate market. Property investment had already dropped by nearly 10% across the year 2020. Now, as the chaos plays out, it appears that the Chinese Communist Party, the CCP, is doing everything in their considerable power to hide the economic reality from their own people. And there's nothing to see here, folks. Our friends at the Wall Street Journal exclusively reported on Tuesday that negative articles and commentaries by journalists and economists regarding China's financial reality have been disappearing from the Internet over the past few weeks.

The crackdown comes as CCP leaders have warned the public against trusting individuals who speak negatively about the economy, so I guess they're not going to trust me, and they've ordered officials to only, quote, promote the bright prospects of China's economy. Now, I'm not sure if there's a Chinese language translation for the phrase whistling past the graveyard. One thing is for certain when it comes to China's economy, Xi Jinping will engage in a variety of government-led interventions in an effort to prop up the appearances of a healthy economy in order to avoid the one thing that he fears more than anything, and that's social unrest. Okay, in today's back of the brief, the video sharing app TikTok, once pledged to protect American users' data from its Chinese owners, but, according to the question, According to a new report in the Wall Street Journal, the platform might not be keeping its promise, really.

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A recent report from the Wall Street Journal has raised significant concerns. This report, drawing on internal documents, from TikTok employees, reveals that the platform is still allowing U.S. user data to be accessed by staff at BightDance, that's the Chinese company that owns TikTok. This is despite earlier promises by the company to isolate U.S. user data under what they called Project Texas, an initiative that TikTok presented to U.S. regulators back in 2020 to avoid a complete ban of the app. and U.S. regulators were apparently naive enough to believe the company's promises. The Wall Street Journal writes, quote,

TechTock managers sometimes instruct workers to share data with colleagues and other parts of the company and with bite-dance workers without going through official channels. That data sometimes includes private information, such as a user's email, birthdate, and IP address. Meanwhile, bite-dance workers in China update TikTok's algorithm so free, frequently that Project Texas employees struggled to check every change and fear they won't catch problems if they're already. That's what the people said." With around 102 million users in the United States, most of them apparently under the age

of seven, this revelation is particularly alarming. Under Chinese cybersecurity laws, TikTok, like all Chinese-owned apps, is required to share all-user data with the Chinese Communist Party upon request. and what are the odds that they're going to request it? This situation puts millions of American users at potential risk of having their personal data exposed to foreign entities. Now, at least 34 states across the U.S. have announced or enacted bans on state government agencies, employees, and contractors using TikTok on government-issued devices. Productivity in the workplace shot up significantly as government employees and contractors stopped scrolling through cat videos,

or whatever's on TikTok. The idea that somehow U.S.-based employees of TikTok would be smarter or more capable than the Chinese Communist Party and could prevent the transfer of U.S. citizens' personal data, well, that's about as stupid as the concept of TikTok itself. If BytDance, the owner of TikTok, which is barely one degree of separation away

from the Chinese intelligence apparatus, demands data from TikTok, it will be provided. By the way, the Chinese regime would never allow their own young population in China to wander through the TikTok wasteland. They've created their own cleaned-up version called WeChat for internal Chinese consumption. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Thursday, 1 February. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the B.

DDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.