The President's Daily Brief - February 20th, 2024: Rafah’s Fate, Bipartisan Aid Efforts, & Eagle Pass Base

Episode Date: February 20, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: We delve into the tensions in the Middle East as Israel faces international pressure to agree to a temporary ceasefire with Hamas, aiming to avoid a potential invasion of the city of Rafah. We explore the new bipartisan foreign aid bill introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives, detailing the proposed financial support for Ukraine and Israel amidst global conflicts. We examine the escalating border crisis in Texas, where Governor Greg Abbott has announced plans for an 80-acre military base near Eagle Pass to strengthen security efforts. In today's Back of the Brief, we discuss Egypt's construction of a substantial buffer zone and wall along its border with Gaza, a preemptive measure in response to Israel's anticipated invasion of Rafah and the possible influx of Palestinian refugees. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's Tuesday, 20 February. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Now, before we get started, just a bit of housekeeping, all of you regular listeners correctly noted that we missed our PDB afternoon bulletin yesterday afternoon, meaning there wasn't one. First, a thank you to all the listeners for the texts, the emails, the postcards, and faxes asking about the mysterious case of the missing after. afternoon bulletin, and, of course, respect to those of you still using fax machines. I was on travel yesterday, and flights were definitely not cooperating, so as it turns out, I was unable to record the bulletin. Now, as posh people say, it shan't happen again. All right, let's get briefed. We'll kick things off in the Middle East, where pressure is mounting on a determined and unrelenting Israel to agree to a temporary ceasefire with Hamas to avoid an invasion

of the city of Rafa. Later, a bipartisan foreign aid bill has been proposed in the U.S. House of Representatives that provides financial assistance for Ukraine and Israel. Plus, we'll look at the latest regarding the border crisis in Texas where Governor Greg Abbott has announced the construction of an 80-acre military base

near the border city of Eagle Pass. And in today's back of the brief, Egypt is building a two-mile-wide buffer zone and wall on its border with Gaza, an anticipation of Israel's invasion of the city of Rafa, fearing that Palestinians will flee into Egypt. So what you're saying is a wall works. But first up, the PDB spotlight. Let's begin in the Middle East with the latest regarding efforts to negotiate a temporary ceasefire in Gaza as pressure grows on Israel to refrain from invading Hamas's last stronghold in the city of Rafa.

Despite ongoing negotiations mediated by Egypt and Qatar, as ceasefire agreement continues to prove elusive, there reportedly remains a wide gulf between Israel and Hamas on a number of key issues. Amid the diplomatic stalemate, the U.S. proposed on Monday an alternative draft United Nations Security Council resolution calling for an urgent temporary ceasefire and publicly voicing strong opposition to Israeli plans to launch an invasion. Indirafa in the coming weeks. In the draft text reviewed exclusively by Reuters, U.S. officials say, quote, under current circumstances, a major ground offense of Indirafa would result in further harm to civilians and their further displacement, including potentially into neighboring countries, end quote. Now, that's an interesting point added into the draft resolution, possibly at the request or urging of Egypt. Frankly, the last thing Arab countries want is for the Palestinian refugee issue to become their problem. The draft adds that an Israeli invasion would,

quote, have serious implications for regional peace and security, and therefore underscores that such a major ground offensive should not proceed under current circumstances, end quote. Well, you know what else has serious implications for regional peace and security? Yeah, that would be the continued existence of Hamas. While President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu have, have been increasingly budding heads, and that's probably not the visual you wanted this morning, the draft resolution marks one of the most public rebukes of Israel's war strategy from the U.S. government since the conflict began. It was not immediately clear when the 15-member council might vote on the resolution. Now, it's estimated that roughly 1.2 million Palestinians,

or more than roughly half the population of Gaza, have taken refuge in the city, and concerns, of course, are amounting over the potential for civilian casualties should Israel move in. The draft text also reportedly condemns calls by summon the Israeli government to move Jewish settlers into Gaza and opposes any attempts by either side to redraw territorial lines or to create a buffer zone in the region. Now, there's no word yet on whether that includes the buffer zone that Egypt is currently building. We'll talk about that later on. Despite increasing pressure from the U.S., however. Israel appears resolute in their efforts to press the attack on Hamas in Rafa. On Sunday, Israeli War Cabinet member Benny Gantz laid out the first potential timetable

for an Israeli incursion into Rafa, saying if Hamas does not release the remaining hostages by Ramadan, which begins this year on March 10th, they will expand their operations into the city. Gantz said, quote, to those saying the price is too high, I say this very clearly. has a choice, they can surrender, release the hostages, and the citizens of Gaza will be able to celebrate the Holy Holiday of Ramadan." Gantz added that any invasion would be done in a coordinated manner, facilitating the evacuation of civilians in dialogue with our American and Egyptian partners to minimize civilian casualties. As we've mentioned, Israel and Hamas remain at odds over potential terms for a ceasefire,

and by odds, I mean, there's a vast chasm. While the Biden administration and mediators in Egypt and Qatar has sought at least a six-week pause in fighting to facilitate a hostage swap, Hamas is seeking a longer-term ceasefire, potentially lasting more than four months, as well as the withdrawal of Israeli forces from key areas of Gaza

and the release of large numbers of Palestinian prisoners, many of whom they want to identify particularly. Israeli negotiators have said that Hamas' demands for a deal are wildly unrealistic. Talks with Israeli officials broke down last week, and Israel said they would not send another negotiating team to Cairo until Hamas shows that they are willing to make concessions. Now, one of the leaders of the negotiations, Qatar's Prime Minister Mohammed bin Nathlama Nautani, raised eyebrows on Saturday after he said that his ceasefire, quote, should not be conditioned on the release of Israeli hostages. Israeli officials immediately

poured cold water on that suggestion, saying the only way to get on a path towards resolving the war is for Hamas to release the remaining hostages. All right, coming up after the break, we'll discuss a bipartisan foreign aid proposal in the U.S. House of Representatives that gives funding to Ukraine and Israel, as well as the latest regarding the border crisis in Texas. I'll be right back. Welcome back. The Senate Foreign Aid package, which includes 95-5,000, billion in assistance to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, remains in political limbo as South Speaker Mike Johnson continues to block the legislation from being brought to the House floor. However, a bipartisan group of representatives in the House has now introduced their own foreign aid bill,

hoping a new piece of legislation might find support among members on both sides of the aisle. On Friday, the group of four Republicans and four Democrats rolled out the so-called, quote, defending borders, Defending Democracies Act, which, as the name suggests, includes elements to both secure America's southern border and provide foreign military aid. On the defending borders side of the bill, the proposal would automatically reject migrants who legally or illegally cross the border if they don't have the proper paperwork for one year. It would also restrict asylum claims, but with some humanitarian exceptions. Arguably, the biggest thing the best thing the bill brings to the table is the re-implementing of the Trump-era remain-in-Mexico policy for a period of one

year. That's the rule that required migrants and asylum seekers to be turned back to Mexico to await their court hearings. On the defending democracy side, the bill includes $47.7 billion in aid to Ukraine, $10.4 billion for Israel, and $4.9 billion for U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific to combat China. It also includes $2.4 billion for U.S. military operations in the Middle East to combat Iran-backed militias in the region. House leadership hasn't offered any comments on the new legislation, and there's no indication yet that Speaker Johnson would bring the bipartisan bill to the floor. Meanwhile, Johnson himself remains between a political rock in a hard place when it comes to the Senate proposal. If he brings that legislation to the floor, he's almost certain to face a motion to vacate the chair from conservatives within the Republican caucus. That's a move that allows a member to force a vote on removing the Speaker of the House, and it would almost certainly cost Johnson his job unless Democrats were to ride to his rescue.

However, there is talk that members of the House on both sides of the aisle may be considering a fancy parliamentary maneuver to bypass Johnson entirely. It's called a, quote, discharge petition. Now, to be fair, they probably don't use the term fancy up on Capitol Hill when describing their parliamentary shenanigans. It basically means that if a majority of House members sign on to this petition, they can bring the Senate legislation to the floor without the House Speaker. Now, of course, pulling this maneuver off would be tricky business, as it would require most Democrats and a handful of defecting Republicans, not to mention a desire to actually account. something. Speaking of Border Security, I wanted to give you an update on the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border, where it looks like Texas Governor Greg Abbott is looking to make the presence of the State's National Guard a permanent fixture. The governor recently announced plans to build what

he's calling a forward operating base near the City of Eagle Pass. That's the border city at the center of the standoff between the state of Texas and Biden administration officials over federal immigration policy. The 80-acre facility would house up to 1,800 Texas National Guard members near Eagle Pass, and would include command posts, weapons, storage rooms, vehicle maintenance bays, and even a helicopter pad. In addition to being able to house 1,800 National Guardsmen in their own individual rooms, the base is said to have a surge capability, allowing it to house up to 500 or so additional troops, should the state need to deploy more personnel, to the area. Now, during a press conference on Friday, where the new base was announced,

Abbott said, quote, because of the magnitude of what we're doing, because of the need to sustain and actually expand our efforts of what we're doing, it's essential that we build this base camp, end quote. Currently, National Guard troops are scattered across the entire region. Some are living in tents, hotels, and private residences, while others have to drive long distances just to get to Eagle Pass. Construction on the base has already begun, and Texas is expecting to begin housing at least 300 troops there by April of this year. Now, I also wanted to give you a brief update on some of the numbers that were seeing at the border, and on that front, look, there is some good news. According to authorities,

arrests for illegal crossings on the U.S. border with Mexico fell significantly in the month of January. Border Patrol agents made a total of 124,220 arrests. That sounds like a lot, right? but it's down by around 50% from December's record high of nearly 250,000 arrests. This marks the third lowest month recorded during the Biden presidency. Now, that significant decrease was driven in large part by Venezuelans, whose arrests dropped by 91% in January to 4,422 from 47,000 in December. Okay, but before you pop the... champagne corks or whatever you imbib and declare the border crisis over, it's worth noting that the

decrease is likely temporary. Traditionally, the number of people trying to make their journey increases when the weather is warmer in the U.S. and decreases during the colder months. All right. Coming up, satellite images show that Egypt appears to have begun the construction of a massive, fortified wall near its border with Gaza, but they're not telling anybody what it's and they're also not saying if they plan on having Mexico pay for it. We'll examine the mystery in tonight's back of the brief. In today's back of the brief, new satellite images show that Egypt is rapidly constructing a massive two-mile-wide buffer zone along the Egyptian Gaza border, complete with a 16-foot border wall. Now, while Egypt has not issued an official public statement

about the construction, their government has been expressing fears about Palestinians potentially fleeing over the border into Egypt in the event that Israel invades the city of Rafa. The buffer zone would fully encase the Egyptian Rafa border crossing complex, according to a report by CNN. Now, officials with the Sinai Foundation for Human Rights said the construction is, quote, intended to create a high security gated and isolated area near the border with the Gaza Strip, in preparation for the reception of Palestinian refugees in the case of a mass exodus, end quote. Roughly 1.2 million Palestinians have taken refuge in Rafa, and it's estimated that more than 100,000 of the displaced Palestinians

are currently staying in encampments at the Egyptian border. Satellite imagery shows construction is well underway on the reported 8 square mile walled enclosure camp in the Sinai Desert, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal. While the encampment will have a capacity for up to 100,000 people, officials reportedly want to keep the number to roughly 50,000 or 60,000 refugees over concerns about security risks. Egypt is growing increasingly concerned about the impact that a likely Israeli invasion would have on their own security. Egypt has already strengthened its military presence along the Gaza border deploying dozens of tanks and armored vehicles. Last weekend, officials in Cairo,

warned that if an Israeli ground operation into Rafah causes Palestinians to cross into Egypt, their government would suspend the 1979 Camp David Accords. That was a pivotal peace agreement, of course, with Israel. However, officials in Egypt since then have not followed up or elaborated on those comments. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Tuesday, 20 February. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at the first TV. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.