The President's Daily Brief - February 21st, 2023. Exploring Russia's Allies to Determine Moscow's Ability to Survive the War of Attrition

Episode Date: February 21, 2023

It’s February 21st. You’re listening to the President’s Daily Brief. Your morning intel starts now. ------ A good day to you, ladies and gentlemen. I’ve got three briefs for you this morning that are shaping America — and the world. First, get those passports ready because we are going around the globe this morning, all because of the War of Attrition in Europe. We’re stopping first in Asia, then Middle East, plus an update in the Mediterranean Sea. And in each stop, we’re asking ourselves if Joe Biden is right about something. In a surprise visit to Ukraine yesterday, he said that Vladimir Putin can’t outlast us in the war. In other words, that Russia doesn’t have enough money, materiel, or allies to win. Is he right? Well, I’ll give you the updates and let you decide. Second, we visit Iran this morning, where inspectors have discovered some new-clear material that is almost good enough / to help Tehran create a new-clear bomb. Finally, head to Fiji where the leaders there are locked in a nasty fight, the results of which could impact our Battle for the Pacific. Later, we close out the podcast with a listener question about divorce. Specifically whether America should split up — with Red States and Blue States parting ways. ----- Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of the President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Own it all. Pay off your home, travel for life, drive a Ferrari. In celebration of the world premiere of the Monopoly Big Board Buckslot Machine by Aristocrat Gaming, Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is giving one person a $1.6 million dream package. The biggest prize in Yamaba's history. Club Serrano members can earn daily instant prizes and secure a spot in the finale May 29th.

Don't pass go and own it all. Only at Yamava, celebrating its 40th anniversary. You win? Details at yamava.com must be 21-20. Please gamble responsibly. Monopoly is a trademark of Hasbro. Hasbro is not a sponsor of this promotion. It's February 21st. You're listening to the President's Daily Brief. I'm your host and former CIA

Officer Brian Dean Wright. Your morning intel starts now. A good day to you, ladies and gentlemen, I've got three briefs for you this morning that are shaping America and the world. First, get those passports out and ready because we are going to go around the globe this morning, all because of the war of attrition in Europe. We're going to stop first in Asia, then the Middle East, plus an update in the Mediterranean Sea. And in each stop, we are going to be asking ourselves if Joe Biden is right about something. In a surprise visit to Ukraine yesterday, he said that Vladimir Putin can't outlast us in this war of attrition. In other words, that Russia doesn't have the money or material or allies to win. But is he right? Well, I'm going to give you the updates and let you

decide. Second, we visit Iran this morning, where inspectors have discovered some nuclear material that is almost good enough to help Tehran create a nuclear bomb. Finally, we head to Fiji where the leaders there are locked in a very nasty fight, the results of which could impact our battle for the Pacific. Later, we close out the podcast with a listener question about divorce, specifically whether America should split up with red states and blue states parting ways. But before we get to that, we got to get started with this. We are on a global trip. this morning flying around the world to talk about the war of attrition between Ukraine and Russia. And that is because, as PDB listeners know, this war is not just between Kiev and Moscow.

Both countries have allies in the fight. Now, we're talking about this today because of a very surprising visit. Joe Biden showed up in Kiev yesterday, and in fact, it was a surprise. He was supposed to spend time in Poland, but after he landed there, he took a secret train to Kiev. Once he got there, he shook hands with President Volodymyr Zelensky and delivered some remarks on what is almost the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion. Now, interestingly, U.S. officials informed Moscow of Biden's visit just hours before he arrived. Of course, that was in an effort to avoid, well, a missile landing on Mr. Biden's head. That's according to National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.

So let's start first then with what Mr. Biden said and what he put. promised. First, he announced that Ukraine would get another $460 million worth of additional military aid. That includes some javelin anti-tank systems, some infantry support vehicles, also some communication, equipment, and medical supplies. All in all, it is Mr. Biden's 32nd such aid package in just the past year. Well, on top of that, Mr. Biden said that American taxpayers would continue to fund the pensions of Ukrainian workers, plus some various social programs, which are kind of similar to our Social Security. So he promised that support folks so that, quote, Ukrainians have something in their pocket. Meanwhile, Mr. Biden's

State Department, specifically a woman named as Victoria Newland, his assistant secretary of state, she confirmed that the U.S. is helping Ukraine in Crimea, which is the peninsula currently held by the Russians. Apparently, we are providing intelligence and targeting of Russian personnel. When asked if this risks escalation, she said, quote, these are legitimate targets, and Ukraine is hitting them, and we are supporting that, end quote. In other words, no peace stocks, folks, at least not yet. And that takes us to the last, perhaps most important thing that Mr. Biden said yesterday. Standing next to Ukraine's President Zelenskyy, he insisted that, quote, Putin thought that Ukraine was weak and the West was divided.

He thought he could outlast us. Well, I don't think he is thinking that right now. Well, is that true? Does Russia's Vladimir Putin think he's going to lose this war of attrition because he's going to be outlasted? Well, I think that the answer is no, not at all, but let me tell you why. And to understand why, let's grab those passports and take a trip this morning. Let's go around the world and look at what Moscow's allies are up to and whether Putin can last. First, we head to the Asian country of North Korea this morning.

And to understand why, let's actually refresh our memories about a brief I gave you last November. Right, that's when the United States accused North Korea of signing a deal to provide Moscow with artillery shells. And that's because Russia is firing off thousands of. of rounds each day. And while their factories can mostly keep up, well, Putin wanted some reserves. And so the allegation was Pyongyang was sending in those reserves at a very cheap price, and they were shipping them via rail into Russia. Well, at the time, Moscow said in response that was just a silly allegation, North Korea said the same. In fact, they all said, Pyongyang was sending Moscow some horses. Yeah, horses. Although, uh,

That was not very credible. The rail cars sending those horses were flat cars with enclosed containers, right? Not exactly good conditions to ship horses, at least ones that show up alive. And that takes us to the latest update from North Korea. Satellite imagery out over the weekend shows a significant increase of trade of all kinds between Russia and North Korea, including coal, oil, and weapons, and that includes rockets and artillery shells. So some of these weapons are going directly to the Russian military, while others are going to Moscow's paramilitary organization called the Wagner Group.

All of that, by the way, is according to imagery and analysis provided by the Washington DC think tank called CISIS. All right, let's head out of North Korea and take a quick flight west to our friends in China. And actually, if you were to look below you as you flew over the Yellow Sea or the East China Sea, you would see oil tankers by the dozens coming from Russia and heading to refineries on China's East Coast. In fact, you would see a record number and indeed amount of Russian oil going to Chinese buyers. That's according to the data intelligence firm Kepler and a report of theirs over the weekend. So as they explained, exports of Russian crude and fuel oil surged to an all-time high last month. The flow reached 1.66 million barrels a day.

So in exchange, China allegedly continues to provide Russia with goods of all kinds and, in fact, is considering ramping up that supply to include lethal military aid, much like the West does with our partners in Ukraine. At least that is the allegation made by the U.S. Secretary of State over the weekend. Said the Secretary, quote, that is of deep concern to us, this sending of Chinese military weapons to Russia. and I made clear the importance of not crossing that line to the Chinese government and the fact that it would have very serious consequences in our own relationship. Well, for what it's worth, Beijing says that that is, well, a bunch of hogwash.

So here's the statement from their foreign ministry, quote, it is the U.S. not China that has been pouring weapons into the battlefield in Ukraine. The U.S. is in no position to tell China what to do. Well, so who's right on this one? Hmm. As I briefed you before, we had pretty high confidence that China is already sending some war material and pretty helpful equipment to Russia. So ratcheting that up wouldn't come as much of a surprise, would it? All right, let's now leave China and head to India this morning, where we will once again see oil tankers bobbing in the water below us on our flight. In fact, they are on a six-week journey from Russia's ports to India.

refineries. And to be clear, we are going to be seeing a whole bunch of these oil tankers. And that's because, according to Bloomberg news analysis out yesterday, India is actually buying more Russian oil than China is, all because it's currently being sold at a very steep discount as Russia looks to replace its European buyers. All right, let's get out of New Delhi this morning and hop a flight to the Mediterranean, specifically the country of Turkey. So two weeks ago, a U.S. Treasury department official flew to the cities of Ankara and Istanbul to politely ask Turkish officials to stop allowing Moscow to buy war material from Turkish companies. Apparently, Moscow is buying all sorts of helpful but sanctioned items in Turkey like some chemicals and electronics like

these advanced computer chips. In fact, Reuters News is reporting that the illicit trade was worth upwards of $2.6 billion over the past year between Moscow and Ankara. with about $1 billion of that in these advanced computer chips. Okay, so we are almost done with our trip around the world. We've got one more stop leaving Turkey to the European country of the Netherlands this morning. Now, they are not a friend of Russia at all, but there's something going on there that challenges this notion that Russia thinks that it's not going to outlast the West in this war of attrition. So yesterday the Dutch intelligence services released an unclassified report that Russia is actively mapping out the energy infrastructure of the Netherlands. So said these folks, quote, Russia is secretly charting this infrastructure and is undertaking activities, which indicate preparations for disruption and sabotage.

Apparently, targets for this Russian destruction include undersea internet cables, gas pipes, and even some wind farms belonging to the Netherlands. Well, by the way, the Dutch apparently discovered a couple of Russian spy ships conducting some reconnaissance and, yeah, kicked them out. And so, my friends, we come back to the statement that was made yesterday by Mr. Biden in Ukraine. Again, it was that, quote, Putin thought that he could outlast us, but I don't think he is thinking that right now. Well, after this brief, folks, I think that it's pretty clear that, well, Vladimir Putin does think that he can outlast us. last us. In fact, he's got a lot of friends helping him. Now, that said, I'll let you decide if Mr. Biden's assessment is in fact correct, or that the facts, as I presented them this morning, show that the Russians are digging in for the long haul with some friends along the way.

With that, ladies and gentlemen, let's take a quick break. When we come back, I've got two more critical pieces of news for you. So we hang tight, and we will be right back. Welcome back to the PDB. I've got two more critical pieces of news for you this morning. First up, the country of Iran is getting ever closer to having a nuclear bomb. That's the latest from Bloomberg News, citing diplomats at the International Atomic Energy Agency. So to understand this brief, I want us to step back for a moment and think about this. So let's say that you have a nuclear power plant and it creates power by using a mineral or element known as uranium. Now, we're not going to go to the science of it this morning, but you have to get that uranium out of the ground and then

refine it into a usable material. It's sort of kind of like when you pump oil out of the ground and you refine it into gas and diesel jet fuel and such. Well, with nuclear power plants, you have to refine that uranium to certain levels of purity. So most power reactors use material that's been enriched to around 5% purity. But if you go beyond that, well, at a certain point, it says that you're probably not interested in nuclear power. In fact, once you get to around 90% of highly enriched or refined uranium, well, that becomes weapons grade uranium for nuclear bomb.

Well, inspectors at that atomic energy agency, they said that they have just discovered that some of a Tehran, Iran's uranium has been enriched to 84% purity. That is just shy of what's needed for a nuclear bomb. Now, Iran has previously told this International Energy Agency that it's machines that purify this stuff, called centrifuges. Well, those were configured to enrich uranium to no more than 60% purity.

So obviously, this news would suggest that the officials in Iran are lying. And, well, again, and I say that, because we have well-established intelligence from 20 years ago, in fact, showing that Iran lied for years about their nuclear programs, saying that it was for civilian purposes when, in fact, they were lying. It was all about creating a program that could create bombs. So that's why this latest news of 86% enrichment has left folks alarmed. The U.S. State Department says that they are deeply concerned,

while the government of Israel is going much further, saying that, quote, it is now or never to stop Iran. Well, not surprisingly, officials in Iran are calling this new report of 86% enrichment, an absolute lie, blasphemous, and, quote, a distortion of facts, end quote. And the facts, these Iranians say, are that this whole thing is just a misunderstanding. You see, inside the network of pipes that connect these centrifuges, there was an accidental and completely unintended accumulation of highly enriched uranium. Right?

That's Iran's story. Well, that is technically possible and worthy of investigation, but highly unlikely. And given the record of Iran lying, plus saying that they intend to wipe Israel off the face of the earth, well, some caution and skepticism are probably necessary in this case. So I will keep you posted on this one, folks. And if I could just offer you a forecast here, this will almost certainly lead Israel to conduct increasingly aggressive covert action strikes inside Iran, which, by the way, usually sends oil prices higher that in turn eventually trickle their way down to your pocketbook.

At any rate, more to come as ever. Finally, this morning, some trouble in the island nation of Fiji. The former prime minister there is facing charges of sedition. and that could spell trouble for our new ally in our battle for the Pacific. So let's refresh our memories very quickly here. The country of Fiji has been led for over a decade by a man named Frank Bianamorama. I'd say that three times fast. Well, Mr. Bianamara got into power after a coup 16 years ago,

but then this last December, elections were held, and old Frank was tossed out. Now, he was very cranky about that, and so two were his friends in China. You see, Frank pushed Fiji very close to Beijing and away from Washington, D.C. But the people of Fiji put a new guy into power, a man named Sedeveni Rabuka, who goes by the nickname Rambo. And Rambo in his coalition partners do not like Frank or China at all. Well, last week, Mr. Frank Biannamarama delivered a speech in Parliament, and he criticized the new prime minister, Mr. Rambo, and his party, saying that the Constitution of his country was, quote, being stripped away almost on a daily basis, end quote. And he appealed to the Fijian military to, well, get involved.

He used some vague language here, but given Fiji's history of military coups, that was a very nasty and combustible set of language to use. So Parliament then voted to toss him out of their legislative body for three years and demanded that he apologized. to the public and Mr. Prime Minister Rambo. Well, Frank, as of this morning, is refusing, and so too is his party. Language is getting pretty heated this morning. Rambo is calling his opponent a traitor, while others are saying that Mr. Bainorama is guilty of sedition and encouraging and insurrection, some pretty nasty stuff. So folks, I'm bringing this to you because what we need to watch for is how China responds to this. In our battle for the Pacific, Beijing and and Washington, D.C. are, of course, fighting for influence and military basing rights in these island countries.

So Beijing losing Fiji and Mr. Frank as a leader, that is not good news for them. So will they try to support Frank or a new coup? Or will they play it more discreetly for now? Well, we shall see in time. But for now, it's an island worth watching. And I will, especially this week, as 18 of those island nations are, to meet at something called the Pacific Island Forum. It's being hosted by Fiji.

Let's see if Frank Bionorama shows up. And with that, ladies and gentlemen, we conclude your morning brief. But I've got one more thing before I let you go. We'll be right back. USAA knows dynamic duos can save the day, like superheroes and sidekicks or auto and home insurance. With USAA, you can bundle your auto and home and save up to 10%. Tap the banner to learn more and get a quote at USAA.com.

slash bundle. Restrictions apply. Welcome back to the PDB folks. I've got one more thing before I let you go. Nick in Georgetown, Kentucky wrote in. He asked about a statement made yesterday by a Georgia representative encouraging the United States to get a divorce. So here is what was said by Representative Marjorie Taylor Green, who is a Republican again from Georgia. Quote, we need a national divorce. We need to separate by red states and blue states. shrink the federal government. Everyone I talk to says this.

From the sick and disgusting woke culture issues shoved down our throats to Democrats' traitorous America last policies, we are done. So this isn't the first time that this representative has suggested this solution to our very divided country. Back in December of 2021, she offered this same idea that America could negotiate its way through a national break. up forming two nations perhaps or perhaps some sort of federation or confederation of states like we

used to have during the time of the 13 original colonies. So Nick, I will confess, I don't follow this argument closely because to be blunt with you, I don't find it serious. And I would hope that Representative Green doesn't either. Because folks, there is no such thing as an amicable national divorce, like people going to their lawyers and splitting the assets. You know, You get the Volvo and I get the beach house. That is not how it works when nations split up. So here's how it works with just one example. Back in the early 1990s, the then country of Yugoslavia split apart.

Now, they tried for a time to make their divorce peaceful. But there were, well, lots of problems, shall we say? In fact, if you have a map on your phone or in your mind, look for the country of Croatia. It's right by Italy. Now, Croatia is a mostly Catholic nation, but mixed in were people who were Muslim. Then you had the Serbians who were Orthodox Christians, but they just hated the Croatians. And then you had Bosnia.

It was and is sandwiched between Serbia and Croatia. And not surprisingly, in that sandwich, there was a big mix of ethnic Croats and Serbs, plus Christians and Muslims. families were intermarried they shared property and resources in fact like water and port access but once the divorce started to happen right powerful people started land grabs plus some very old grievances flared up from over 500 years ago right ethnic religious grievances and after a time a war started right four years long about and a hundred thousand people died but put all of that aside, Nick, and just play out this idea of divorce in America, right? Red states separate from blue states, but it's not that easy, right? Think about Utah, of all places, right? That is a red state, Ruby Red. Well, Salt Lake City, though, is run by a Democrat mayor and mostly a Democrat population.

Or think about something a little bit different, but the same idea here. Go to Washington State or Oregon, right? Those are both blue states, most of us would say. Okay. But it's true, Seattle and Portland are very liberal, but most of those blue states, especially in eastern Oregon and eastern Washington, are actually very conservative. So how do you break up those kinds of states, which actually make up most states? You know, do you have little blue island nations surrounded by red nations?

And my gosh, thousands of different questions than percolate. like who controls the rivers or access to water? And finally, consider this. What happens when a liberated Portland or Seattle or Salt Lake City, right? Who are your next door island country neighbors? They decide to set their own foreign policy. They get cozy with, say, China, because they probably will. Polls consistently show Democrats favor positive relations with Beijing.

And what would China do with these new liberal friends and these new liberal city states with access to the ocean and ports and such? Well, they would do what they're already doing around the world. They would set up military or basing agreements. And then, Nick, it's over. North America gets eventually set on fire. And you will not recover this country or, frankly, this part of the continent for generations. It is a divide and conquer strategy by Beijing. So, Nick, what you're hearing, I think, from folks who are advocating divorce, it's frustration, right?

And they don't know how to solve it other than this general idea of, hey, you know, people get divorced. Countries can too. So, you know, liberals can take, you know, their Volvo and their woke ideology, and we'll take the Constitution and the Beach House. But that's nonsense. I understand the desire. I understand the frustration, but it's just nonsense. sense. Instead, Nick, I think that the real solution goes back to the council that we got from Benjamin Franklin so long ago, while he and others were originally putting together the Constitution.

When he was asked what kind of country we would be given, whether it be a monarchy or a republic, he said a republic, if you can keep it. So we got to get to work because this country, my friends, is worth keeping. And with that, ladies and gentlemen, we conclude your morning brief. As always, we close out the show, reminding each other of why we are here, talking about our country and our world. It's the creed of every good spy and every smart American. It's from John chapter 8, verse 32. And you shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free. Good day.