The President's Daily Brief - February 23rd, 2023. Who and What is the Wagner Group and What is Their Role in Moscow?

Episode Date: February 23, 2023

It’s February 23rd. You’re listening to the President’s Daily Brief. Your morning intel starts now. ------ A good day to you, ladies and gentlemen. I’ve got three briefs for you this morning that are shaping America — and the world. First, we’ve got a couple updates on Mexico and immigration this morning, including a new rule from the Biden Administration about asylum seekers. But here’s the kicker: it’s actually an old policy promoted by Donald Trump. Second, we continue our look south of the border to an allegation this morning that the current president of Mexico took cash from the Mexican cartels years ago. Third, get out your maps and your safari hats because we’re off to Africa this morning. The countries of Tanzania and Uganda are launching a major new oil project that could impact the price you pay for gas — and the price for batteries in those electric vehicles. Later, we close out the podcast with a listener question about that ammunition shortage in Ukraine that we talked about last Friday. ----- Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of the President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's February 23rd. You're listening to the President's Daily Brief. I'm your host and former CIA officer Brian Dean Wright. Your morning intel starts now. A good day to you, ladies and gentlemen, I've got three big old briefs for you this morning that are shaping America and the world. First, tomorrow marks the one year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but there's one unexpected battle going on outside of Ukraine that could shape the war's future. It involves the Russian paramilitary organization known as the Wagner Group. I'll explain what exactly is going on. Second, an update on Cold War II, which of course is the fight between China and America

for global influence and supremacy. Today we've got an update on how the country of Australia is actually working pretty hard to repair their relationship with Beijing. Finally, some good news and bad news regarding the dirty green energy revolution. The bad news comes out of the African country of Nigeria. Well, the good news is from right here at home in the state of California. Later, we close out the podcast with a listener question. Ed in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina has an idea about how to help Ukraine.

And guess what? Ed is on to something. Also, a request at the end of today's show. It is a personal one. So I hope you stick around and you all listen all the way to the end. But before we get to that, we got to get started with this. tomorrow marks the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Now, throughout it all, I focused the PDB on all sorts of angles and twists and turns.

Of course, we had the wheat wars, which triggered a global food crisis. We had the drone wars, which started with America providing kamikaze drones, and now Iran is doing the same thing. Well, today we are going to talk about another twist. It's regarding a group that I've actually mentioned before, called the Wagner Group, but we haven't dug into exactly who these guys are and what they do beyond the fact that they support Russia and send their men there to fight. But today we're going to explore these guys in depth, and that is because of this.

Earlier this week, the Wagner Group's CEO and founder, a man named Yevgeny Pregozhen, he verbally assaulted the Kremlin, and that's because the Russian defense chiefs aren't sending him or his troops ammunition or guns. In fact, he said that his Russian men are getting slaughtered because of Moscow's incompetence. And because of that, the Russian military leaders, he said, are guilty of treason. And I'll tell you what, this is a remarkable development for a couple of reasons, namely that Mr. Begozhen has been long close to Russia's president, Vladimir Putin. Plus, the Wagner Group has been instrumental in helping Moscow and not just Ukraine,

but in places like Syria and Central Africa. So let's talk about who these guys are, this Wagner group. And what's going on with this fight between Progogian and Russia's defense chiefs? And then ultimately, why you should care. So let's start first with Ukraine, but not in recent times. Let's go back to the year 2014. That's when Russia first invaded Ukraine, specifically the Crimean Peninsula. So as Putin was trying to take Crimea back,

he leaned on various paramilitary groups to help him fight. Now, in the United States, we might think of these guys, well, the parallel could be Blackwater, right? That was the group of former U.S. military guys, lots of guys, in fact, with special forces backgrounds, who were hired by that company Blackwater to be, well, hired guns in places like Iraq. In other words, paramilitary organizations or private security groups deploy these retired military men, but not for a government like Uncle Sam. Instead, it's for any client who will hire them. Well, that is what the Wagner Group promised to do,

a group of former Russian military personnel who were hired by, well, people, companies, or even countries to do jobs, like protect political leaders or help fight an Islamic insurgency, for example. But in Ukraine, that meant helping their fellow countrymen and current soldiers take back Crimea. Now, just to refresh our memories here, that is a chunk of ground that used to belong to the Soviet Union, but was given to the Ukrainians many decades ago as a gift of sorts.

And that gift is one that Putin has long said was a terrible mistake. But, you know, I mentioned how we might think of the Wagner group like Blackwater, but that actually isn't quite fair for one very important reason. You see, the Wagner Group isn't really a private company. according to a wide number of press accounts and sources with whom I've spoken, the Wagner group only does what the Kremlin allows them to do. They're a private army of sorts, but it's one that effectively is controlled by Putin.

So let me just give you some examples of why I say that. Moscow allows the Wagner men to train on official military bases. They stay in military housing. Moscow also gives them guns and ammunition. They fly them around the world on military aircraft. They even give some of these men diplomatic passports. But all the while, Russia does this while claiming that the Wagner Group has no official ties to the government, which is obviously absurd. But why do they say that?

Well, technically, it allows Moscow some plausible deniability when the Wagner Group does something bad or deadly. and there are lots of allegations of that, from torture to rape or the targeting of civilians. And these allegations, by the way, of terrible things, they come from around the world. And that's because the Wagner Group operates around the world, too, and 20 countries, give or take. In fact, we've spoken about a few of them on the PDB, like Libya or Mali and the Central African Republic. Well, in exchange for providing fighters, the Wagner Group makes money and a whole bunch of it. The Financial Times reports that the Wagner's cheap, Mr. Progosion, has made $250 million in recent years, although he says that that number is a little bit high. Regardless, the Wagner Group makes that money because they actually take stakes in things like oil and mineral operations in these countries, often rather than cash.

So, for instance, in Syria, they got an oil concession. In the Sudan, they got a gold mine. In the Central African Republic, they get a cut of the diamonds. Now, about a year ago, operations at the Wagner Group started to change as Russia invaded Ukraine. Moscow needed Wagner and its fighters, but Wagner was actually shy of men. Remember, they had mostly been made up of former Russian military and special forces operators, and not many of them, around 5,000. Well, Wagner and its CEO started turning to average. men in Russia and Russian prisoners. So let's talk about those average men. Wagner started producing

some pretty slick PR campaigns with Hollywood-like videos and short movies saying how awesome it was to fight as a soldier and doing it with Wagner. By the way, if you've ever seen these videos, you know it's pretty impressive, actually. It's like a U.S. Army or U.S. Air Force recruitment ad, but a lot more dramatic and raw. Well, meanwhile, Wagner also started to be a very important. started targeting Russian prisoners for recruitment. And in a sign of how closely the Wagner group coordinates with the Russian government, this Wagner chief was captured in a leaked video that was taken inside a prison yard, making the pitch to these men, which was this,

You give me six months of your life, and I will give you freedom when it's over. That is, of course, if you survive six months of war. So all in all, those pitches to those two groups of, men? Yeah, it worked. So again, before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Wagner group had around 5,000 fighters, but after, well, they got up to around 50,000, with 80% of those drawn from the prisons. That's according to the U.S. National Security Council. By the way, what exactly does Wagner get out of its fight in Ukraine? Because in those other places, it was mining concessions. Well, I don't have high confidence in what I'm about to tell you, but I will say.

from folks that I've spoken with. Mr. Progoshin is angling for the control of local minerals and elements like and including salt, gypsum, titanium, lithium, and something called palladium. Although there are others who say that Mr. Progoshan is angling for something far bigger than minerals, namely to become the president of Russia. Yeah. To replace Vladimir Putin and all those incompetent Russian generals, who just this week said were traitors. Now, is any of that true that Progogian wants this presidency of

Russia? Well, Russian history does show that there is always someone angling for the top job in Moscow and, frankly, willing to kill or backstab their way into the Kremlin. Well, for his part, Mr. Progosian says that he is not interested in that job, that he's not a politician, he just wants to win in Ukraine. And that's why his message to the Russian Ministry of Defense, defense has been so public and so stark, he's telling them to turn the spigot back on to provide ammunition and guns and men. Because, well, he's right about complaining that the spigots off. The defense ministry has turned it all off, probably because of personality differences, ego, in other words, but also they don't like having these Wagner fighters chalking up victories in

Ukraine while their regular troops struggle. By the way, the defense, chiefs of Russia just yesterday responded to the Wagner boss calling them traitors. They said, quote, attempts to split the close mechanism of interaction and support between the Russian fighters are counterproductive and play only to the advantage of the enemy. Well, there you have it. The quick facts and data this morning about the Wagner group. Let me offer up two pieces of analysis and opinion, plus why you should care. First, I think that Putin is a lot of, allowing this because, well, he knows his Russian history. Most every president or leader of Russia eventually gets overthrown or killed. In fact, that's how Putin himself got into power.

So he is worried or mindful, maybe even paranoid, that someone in Moscow might gain just a little bit too much power. So in this case, it's better that he let this fight go on between progosion and his defense chiefs. You know, keeps each faction at each other's throats. But be that as it may, all that palace intrigue aside, why should you care? Why does any of this impact you? Well, what's clear is that you, my fellow Americans, are financing this war to the tune of over $100 billion and counting. Plus, it's impacting our economy and your pocketbook, from gas prices to utility bills.

So if the Russians are distracted or preoccupied with this internal struggle, which it seems, like they are, at least to a certain degree, then it's likely going to impact their battle performance, which actually it is. Estimates are that 40,000 of Wagner's prison troops have been killed, and more are likely to die if they don't get guns and ammunition, which right now they aren't. And that would be good for the West, certainly, and for taxpayers like you. Because if Russia's fighting force struggles, that could mean a faster path to peace talks. although then again, God forbid, it could also lead to a very weakened and frightened Putin who escalates to some form of nuclear conflict. The point is this Wagner group is important for us to watch, whether it be their activities in Africa, the Middle East, or the war that you are funding in Ukraine.

Folks, these Wagner fighters are worth our time to watch. With that, ladies and gentlemen, let's take a quick break. When we come back, I've got two more critical pieces of news for you. So hang tight, and we will be right back. USAA knows dynamic duos can save the day, like superheroes and sidekicks or auto and home insurance. With USAA, you can bundle your auto and home and save up to 10%. Tap the banner to learn more and get a quote at usa.com slash bundle. Restrictions apply.

Welcome back to the PDB. I've got two more critical pieces of news for you this morning. First, we've got an update to Cold War II. That's our look at the first. fight between China and America for influence and supremacy around the world. Today we've got an update on how one country that should be very firmly on our side, that's the country of Australia, well, they're actually working pretty hard to repair their relationship with Beijing. And I bring you this news, not to throw an arrow at the Australians, but rather to show how hard it is going to be

to truly take on the communists in China. So let's start with this. Two years, years ago, Australia and China got into quite a fight. The then Australian foreign minister called for a global inquiry into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic. Meanwhile, the then Australian Prime Minister suggested that the World Health Organization sent in investigators to Wuhan and be armed with the same powers as United Nations weapons inspectors. Well, that infuriated Beijing, and they had some leverage to express their anger. You see, China is Australia's number one export partner, and that is not a good thing when you demand that they be held to account for starting a pandemic. According to the South China Morning Post,

Beijing unofficially told Chinese traders to stop importing a long list of Australian goods. That included coal, sugar, barley, cotton, lobsters, wine, copper, and timber. In other words, make the Australians hurt. well since then a more leftist government has come to power led by the current prime minister anthony Albanese and he's tried very hard to repair his relationship with China. So for instance last December the foreign minister Penny Wong went to Beijing for a visit. It was the first in several years. Then Australia's trade minister said just this last week, in fact to China, I would like to work

together with you to bring our economic cooperation. back to the correct track. Well, apparently, whatever the leftist government in Australia has done or is promising, it's working, I guess you could say. In early January, Beijing gave permission to four government-backed companies to ship in Australian coal. It was the first shipment since the unofficial ban started in late 2020. Well, now a month later, there are another 15 vessels hauling around 1.4 million tons of Australian coal. coal all heading to China as well. Finally, there's one more thing here. One million tons of Australian

coal are being booked for delivery back up into China starting next month in March. Now, interestingly, one of Australia's major coal producers, an outfit called BHP, said on Tuesday that, quote, we welcome the opportunity to engage with customers in China over potential coal sales, while keeping in mind that we need to pivot our sales to other markets too. So with those, Those facts and data this morning, let me now pivot to analysis and opinion. Folks, Australia is a lot of other countries right now, including the U.S., if we're going to be honest. Many companies and politicians know that China is not good for them or for humanity, but

just like a drug user who can't quit the habit, they keep going back for another fix because it's good for business. Or they rationalize it with some sort of political gobbly gook, like, well, maybe China will change someday. But, you know, with every new drug deal or rationalization, it becomes harder and more painful to do the right thing and separate. So folks, we are going to be seeing this time and time again for years to come in this Cold War too, because it's what happens when you deal with the devil. You get the veins full of that kind of gross stuff. Once inside, the devil doesn't want to leave. And after a while, neither do you. Finally this morning, some good news and bad news in our series

on dirty green energy. That's, of course, the world's pivot to solar and wind and the batteries, the power at all. So let's start with the bad news, shall we? Just get it over with. The country of Nigeria and Africa has some lithium deposits, deposits that help create lithium ion batteries. But, well they have decided to sell it to China within the last month the Nigerian government has decided to select a Chinese mining company to own and operate a lithium mine in the Kaduna state of their country that's actually after they turned down an offer by Tesla to do the same now this isn't China's first big investment in Nigeria they've also built a light rail project in the capital of Abuja they're constructing an airport terminal a set of expansions in

four major airports, and they're building out something called the National Public Security Communications System, which is a national surveillance system with audio and video feeds. And you can bet that that data will be piped back into Beijing for all sorts of intelligence purposes. At any rate, this latest lithium deal means that China is growing its control over the world's supply of the dirty green mineral lithium, and, consequently, they have even more control over the dirty green energy revolution. Well, that's depressing, as always. Let's now talk about some good news, a little victory over China related to our series on Cold War II. So let me brief you on that good news. Now, this one has to do with rare earth metals. So let me refresh our

memories on what the heck this stuff is and how it's used. So inside, virtually every electronic device, from missiles to cell phones or power tools to electric vehicles. There are all sorts of types of magnets, and these magnets are generally made from rare earth metals. So back in the 1970s and before, America was the world's leading miner, refiner, and manufacturer of these magnets. But then, well, we got lazy. We let China take control and dominate the entire supply chain. In fact, they've now got around 85% of the global refining capacity of these rare earth magnets. That's according to Bloomberg News. Well, that's bad, having China in control of the stuff that we need to make missiles, for instance. So obviously, that's a problem, and there has been, in fact, a big push

to redevelop that rare earth supply chain. And now, at least as of today, there is only one company in America that's doing it. It's called MP Materials Corporation, which owns the Mountain Pass Mine in California. So in the past couple of years, they've built out that mine plus a separation or a refining unit in Texas to purify the stuff that they pull out of the ground. They've also announced that they're going to build a magnet factory also in the state of Texas. God bless you, Texas. But the challenge is that many of our allies around the world still rely on China for those very important rare earth magnets, which is obviously still very bad if we end up in war with China and our allies get squeezed, which takes us to this latest good news.

Yesterday, the MP Materials Corporation announced a partnership with a Japanese company. The idea is that they are going to send some refined rare earth minerals to this company, which will in turn make the magnets for use in Japan. Said these companies, quote, the agreement will stabilize, diversify, and strengthen a supply chain of critical importance to Japan's manufacturing and military sectors, end quote. So, there you have it. Slowly bit by bit, we will build a coalition of strong countries to fight back against the evil

that is the Chinese Communist Party, just one magnet at a time. And with that, ladies and gentlemen, we conclude your morning. brief. But I've got two more things before I let you go. We'll be right back. Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is California's number one entertainment destination for today's superstars. Catch the Jonas Brothers return to the Yamava Theater stage on April 30th, the powerful vocals of Demi Lovato on May 17th and the signature Southern Country Rock of Eric Church on July 19th. Tickets on sale now at Yamavah Theater.com. Only at Yamava Resort and casino, celebrating its 40th anniversary.

win, must be 21 to enter. Not loving your AT&T or T mobile bill. Yeah, we've been hearing that a lot. Good news. Bring your AT&T or T mobile bill to Verizon and we'll give you a better deal. So get away from that unfortunate phone bill and get to Verizon. Run, ride, canoe. Whatever it takes, we'll be here. Bring your AT&T or T mobile bill to a Verizon store today and we'll give you a better deal on the best network. A better deal. No surprises. That's Verizon.

Best Network based on Route Metrics, Best Overall Mobile Network Performing, U.S. Second Half 2025, all rights reserved. must provide a recent consumer mobile bill. My name of the person who gave me the deal. Additional terms, conditions, and restrictions apply. Welcome back to the PDB folks. I've got two more things before I let you go. First, about three weeks ago,

a PD listener named Ed in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina rode in with an idea. So Ed is a 30-year Army veteran, retired command sergeant major, and he's been watching the U.S. government seize weapons in the Middle East. Now, specifically, he's seen the U.S. Navy seizing Iranian weapons that transit the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, weapons that are on their way to a civil war in the country of Yemen. Now, that war deserves its own brief, but just for now, know that Iran wants one side to win in that civil war,

and we and the Saudi Arabian government want another side to win. So our Navy tries to intercept some of those weapons that the Iranians are sending to their side, and in fact, we have seized a lot of their stuff. According to the Pentagon, we currently have more than 5,000 assault rifles, 1.6 million rounds of small arms ammunition, plus a limited number of anti-tank missiles. So Ed in Myrtle Beach was wondering,

why don't we just give all that stuff to the Ukrainians? That's a little less for taxpayers to have to pay for. Plus, with the ammo shortage, well, maybe it'll help. Ah, Ed, you, sir, are on to something. The Wall Street Journal reported about a week ago that U.S. officials are trying to find a way to get that Iranian war material into the hands of the Ukrainians. The problem, though, is this. There is a United Nations arms embargo involved in this conflict, and it says that we have to destroy, store, or otherwise get rid of these

weapons. But what we cannot do is transfer them, apparently, from one war zone to another. Well, the Pentagon is involved in this, the lawyers specifically. I think that they're probably standing on their heads and squinting their eyes to see they can pretzel out some sort of legal rationale that would allow them to transfer these weapons, but not run afoul of the UN agreement. But apparently the lawyers are saying, eh, you know what, it's probably going to take Joe Biden or Congress to authorize this transfer, either via a new law or an executive order. Regardless, Ed, good eye on this one. You saw what others in the Pentagon saw too. Folks, I've got one more thing. thing for you. It's a personal note this morning, and it's a quick one. I'd ask that you give the show

a listen tomorrow. I've got a pretty important announcement to share, and it involves the future of the PDB and my involvement with it. So please do listen in. It's important, and I would be much obliged. With that, ladies and gentlemen, we conclude your morning brief. As always, we close out the show reminding each other of why we are here, talking about our country and our world. It's the creed of every good spy and every smart American. It's from John chapter 8, verse 32. And you shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free. Good day. Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money, because behind every headline is a bottom line, whether it's the funds-fuelling AI or crypto's trillion dollar swings,

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