The President's Daily Brief - February 23rd, 2026: Iran’s Supreme Leader Prepares For 'Assassination Scenario’ & Supreme Court Delivers Tariff Blow

Episode Date: February 23, 2026

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: Iran’s Supreme Leader prepares for what insiders describe as an “assassination scenario,” quietly naming multiple layers of successors and restructuring command authority as Tehran braces for potential U.S. military strikes. The Supreme Court delivers a landmark ruling against President Trump’s tariff strategy, limiting executive authority over trade policy and potentially shifting leverage to China in the ongoing economic standoff. Pakistan launches cross-border strikes into Afghanistan targeting militant hideouts, as humanitarian officials report multiple casualties and tensions rise along the volatile frontier. And in today’s Back of the Brief — President Trump orders the Pentagon to begin releasing long-classified files related to UFOs and unidentified aerial phenomena, signaling a major transparency move on one of Washington’s most mysterious subjects. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.  YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Stash Financial: Don't Let your money sit around. Go to https://get.stash.com/PDB to see how you can receive $25 towards your first stock purchase and to view important disclosures. Ava: See how millions are boosting their credit with Ava—download the Ava app and use code BAKER for 20% off your first year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's Monday, the 23rd of February. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right. Let's get briefed. First up, Iran's supreme leader is quietly preparing for what insiders are calling a, quote, assassination scenario, naming layers of successors and bracing for potential U.S. strikes.

Now, the question is, do you really need layers of successors? I mean, typically, right, one would do. Layers seems very top-heavy. Anyway, later in the show, the Supreme Court delivers a major ruling against President Trump's tariff strategy, limiting executive authority, and potentially handing Xi Jinping quite the belated Chinese New Year's gift. Plus, as the fourth anniversary of Putin's invasion approaches, Russia unleashes one of its heaviest aerial barrages of the year,

while European unity over sanctions begins to fruct. thanks to a couple of Putin's syncophanes. And in today's back of the brief, Pakistan launches cross-border strikes into Afghanistan, targeting militant hideouts, will have the latest on rising tensions between the two neighbors. But first, today's PDB spotlight. As the U.S. builds up military assets across the Middle East, Iran's supreme leader is preparing for something extraordinary, not just war, but the possibility of assassination.

According to a detailed report from the New York Times, Ayatollah Ali Khamini has instructed at his closest political and military associates to prepare contingency plans to ensure that the Islamic Republic survives potential American or Israeli strikes, including scenarios in which he himself is killed. At the center of these preparations is a man by the name of Ali Larajani. Larajani is a veteran insider. He's a former Revolutionary Guard commander, former Speaker of Parliament, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, that's quite a title, but according to six senior Iranian officials cited in the Times report, his authority has expanded dramatically in recent months. In practical terms, he's become the regime's crisis manager. His power now stretches across nearly every pressure point facing Tehran. He's overseen the violent suppression of nationwide protests demanding the end of clerical rule. So he's at the top of the heap as far as those responsible for the thousand. killed and the tens of thousands detained. He's coordinating closely with Russia and consulting regional intermediaries such as Qatar and Oman. He's directly involved in nuclear negotiations

with Washington, and he's leading planning for how the state would function during war. That planning now goes beyond military positioning. According to the officials interviewed, Khamani has ordered four layers of succession for key military and government posts that fall under his authority. Senior leaders have been instructed to designate multiple replacements. Decision-making power has been delegated to a small, trusted circle in case communications are disrupted or the supreme leader is killed in a targeted strike. This level of redundancy reflects lessons learned, perhaps, from last year's 12-day war, when senior Iranian military commanders were reportedly eliminated within the opening hours of strikes. During that period, Khomeini himself went into hiding. Now, the regime appears

determined not to be caught flat-footed again. Iran is operating under the assumption that U.S. military action is inevitable. Armed forces have been placed on high alert. Ballistic missile launchers have been repositioned along Iran's western border within reach of Israel and along its southern coastline, placing American bases in the Persian Gulf within range. Airspace closures for missile testing have become routine. Naval exercises have temporarily closed portions of the Strait of Hormuz, and public rhetoric from Tehran has grown sharper, Wilchamini threatening direct retaliation against U.S. naval assets. But the military preparations tell only part of the story here.

Inside the country, special police units, intelligence agents, and Basij military forces are reportedly preparing to secure major cities in the event of war. Checkpoints, internal sweeps, and counterintelligence operations are part of contingency planning designed to prevent unrest or, as they say, foreign infiltration during a conflict. The leadership appears concerned not only about external strikes, but about maintaining control at home. Well, that's what happens when you slaughter thousands of your own citizens and detain tens of thousands of others.

They tend to get unrestful. There's also an openly discussed political survival question. Who governs if the top leadership is removed? Officials told the New York Times that internal deliberations have considered which figures could temporarily manage the country if Khomeini and other senior leaders were killed. One official reportedly referred to finding, quote, the Delci of Iran,

a reference to Venezuela's Delci Rodriguez who helped preserve regime continuity during crisis. Larajani sits at the top of that internal list. Now, notably, Larajani is not a senior Shiite cleric and therefore would not qualify to succeed Chahmanee as supreme leader, but he is trusted, reportedly, deeply connected within the security establishment and now positioned at the operational center of crisis planning.

By contrast, Iran's president, Masoud Boschekian, appears increasingly sidelined. In one example, cited in the report, when Iran's foreign ministers sought authorization to engage a U.S. envoy during a tense moment earlier this year, the president reportedly told him to call Larajani for approval. That anecdote shows, possibly, where real authority currently resides. Now, on one track, Iran is preparing for institutional survival in the face of decapitation strikes. On the other, though, diplomacy, if it can be called that, continues. Reuters reports that Iran's foreign minister expects to have a draft nuclear counterproposal ready within days following indirect talks in Geneva with U.S. envoys. He has said that broad, quote, guiding principles have been agreed upon

and that a deal could be reached in a very short period of time, really. At the same time, President Trump is given Tehran a deadline of roughly 10 to 15 days to resolve the dispute, even as U.S. military planning reportedly advances to include options ranging from limited strikes to targeting individuals. What makes this moment so volatile is that both dynamics are unfolding simultaneously. Iran is preparing its leadership structures for assassination contingencies and wartime succession, while continuing supposedly negotiations over uranium enrichment and sanctions relief. It's worth noting that the regime has insisted on keeping any indirect discussions narrowly focused on only one aspect of their nuclear program, and they've refused to discuss or compromise in any way

on their ballistic missile program and regional support for their terrorist proxy network. Meanwhile, the U.S. is positioning forces and refining strike options while keeping diplomatic channels open, again, sort of. If talks produce a breakthrough, much of the military posturing may ultimately be remembered as leverage. If the talks fail to produce anything meaningful, however, the infrastructure for escalation is obviously in place. All right, coming up next, the Supreme Court curbs President Trump's tariff authority in a ruling that could reshape trade policy and shift leverage to China. And Moscow fires nearly 300 drones and dozens of missiles across Ukraine, targeting the backbone of civilian life. Even as tensions arise inside the European Union,

Thanks to the pro-Putin leaders currently running Hungary and Slovakia. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take a moment to ask you a question. Have you dabbled in investing here and there, but you haven't been happy with how things are going? Well, I got some good news for you. Stash, it's all about Stash. Stash helps turn good intentions into consistent progress, right?

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Anyway, give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. Upfront payment of $45 for three-month plan, equivalent to $15 per month required. Intro rate first three months only, then full price plan options available. Taxes and fees extra. See full terms at mintmobile.com. Welcome back to the PDB. For the past year, tariffs have been one of President Trump's most powerful economic weapons, reshaping global trade flows, driving increasing.

increasing revenues and confronting what he argues are years of unfair global trade practices. Now, the subject of tariffs reached the highest court in the land, and in a six to three ruling, the Supreme Court concluded that the emergency law cited to justify those sweeping duties does not authorize the president to impose tariffs. Chief Justice John Roberts wrote for the majority, rejecting the administration's reliance on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and you say to yourself, is there an acronym for that? And of course there is. It's Aipa. Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Brett Kavanaugh dissented, citing with a broader view of executive power in matters tied to national and economic security.

So, you ask yourself, how did we get here? The cases were brought by an educational toy manufacturer and a family-owned wine importer, challenging the legality of the, quote, Liberation Day tariffs that were announced back in April of this past year. Their argument was that the emergency powers are one thing, but rewriting trade rules without Congress is another. The question before the court wasn't about whether tariffs are good or bad policy, it was whether this statute gave the President the authority to impose them unilaterally. And on that narrow legal question, the court said no.

Now, we're not going to spend the next 10 minutes parsing legal language, even though in some circles I am considered one of the country's sharpest legal minds. Whether you agree with the ruling or not, the bigger story is what this means strategically. And one person who's undoubtedly paying attention and enjoying the court's decision is China's President Xi Jinping. Because for nearly a year now, one of the Trump administration's most powerful tools wasn't just tariffs themselves, it was the speed that they could be declared. The ability to escalate duties rapidly under emergency authority gave Washington immediate leverage. At times, you may remember, the tariff threats climbed as high as 145%.

That created real negotiating pressure, especially in talks with China on soybean purchases and aircraft sales, energy exports, and rare earth mineral flows that are critical to U.S. manufacturing. The court's ruling removes that lever. Washington can still act, but not instantly or under the same emergency. umbrella. That shift from immediacy to weeks or even months and possibly years, depending on how dysfunctional Congresses at any one time, matters especially as Trump's April summit in Beijing with Xi is fast approaching. She will now enter those upcoming talks without the looming threat of sweeping emergency tariffs hanging overhead. Trump's second term levies imposed under AIPA are gone, leaving China subject to the same 15 percent global tariff applied to U.S. allies under Section 122, and that authority expires after 150 days unless extended.

From Beijing's vantage point, the ruling may look like breathing room. If Washington can no longer raise tariffs overnight under emergency authority, Chinese negotiators may feel less urgency to honor past purchase commitments. Now politically, this is undeniably a setback. Trump described the ruling as, quote, life or death for the U.S., underscoring how central tariffs have become to a second-term economic strategy. But the White House did not take the court's decision lying down. Within hours of that ruling, the administration moved quickly, announcing a new 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act. It's worth noting, since Trump's return to office, tariff collections have surged roughly 300%. Duties jumped from over $9 billion in March to

nearly $24 billion in May following the rollout of the tariffs. For 15,000, Fiscal 2025, collections reached $215 billion, with fiscal 2026 already running ahead of last year. Stepping back, the broader constitutional question here is how far our president can go in reshaping trade policy without Congress. On that front, the Supreme Court has clearly drawn a line. But it has not dismantled the administration's trade strategy. What it's done is narrow the trade talk battlefield. The fastest escalation tool is gone. The broader contest over trade leverage, particularly with China,

now that continues. And it continues at a moment when both sides are preparing for a high-stakes round of negotiations. Okay, I want to shift to Ukraine, because as the fourth anniversary of Putin's invasion approaches, the Kremlin unleashed one of its heaviest aerial barrages of the year, an escalation that comes as political tensions simmer across Europe. On Sunday, Moscow fired 297 drones and nearly 50 missiles across Ukraine. President Zelensky said a, quote, significant proportion of those munitions were intercepted. As Zelensky put it, quote, Moscow continues to invest in strikes more than in diplomacy. And that line is significant

because this aerial assault came just days after U.S. brokered talks in Geneva, talks that, as expected, did nothing to slow the attacks or produce anything that resembled actual progress. This latest Russian aerial assault targeted not just energy infrastructure, which has systematically been targeted for months, but rail logistics and municipal water systems, too. In other words, the backbone, the infrastructure of civilian life. As a result, more than half a million people in Kiev were left without power during one of the coldest stretches of winter so far, with temperatures dropping as low as minus 22 degrees Celsius or minus 8 degrees Fahrenheit. In a suburb of the capital. A missile flattened a private two-story home. One man was killed, at least a dozen

others, including four children, were wounded. A local woman said there were, quote, no military facilities in the area, just ordinary people. This latest attack is part of the Kremlin's renewed pressure campaign, while ceasefire negotiations continue to stall, and as Moscow continues to insist that Kiev give up large portions of the eastern Donbass, including areas not currently even occupied by Russian forces. As long-time listeners of the PDB will know, it's a demand that Ukraine has repeatedly rejected. But now the pressure on Kyiv hasn't been limited to Ukraine's skies recently. At the same time, tensions are rising inside Europe. Hungary is threatening to block a new package of European Union sanctions against Moscow, and Slovakia has warned it may halt

emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine. Both disputes stemmed from disrupted Russian oil deliveries through what's known as a Drusba pipeline after Kiev said a January Russian drone attack damaged that route that carries crude to Central Europe, specifically Hungary and Slovakia. Hungary's pro-Russian government, led by Putin-Totty, Victor Orban, has made clear that Budapest could withhold support for key EVE decisions unless oil shipments resume. Moscow-friendly Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico accused Zelensky of, quote, behaving maliciously and warned that power supplies, could be cut to Ukraine if repairs aren't fulfilled.

Despite EU and NATO moves to sanction and obviously reduce Russia's revenues from oil and gas, Hungary and Slovakia, both EU and NATO members, continue to rely on Russian energy supplies. EU foreign ministers are preparing to meet in Brussels to finalize what would be the Block's 20th sanctions package, hoping to align it with the invasion anniversary on Tuesday. But the unity that defined much of Europe's early response is being tested by, the two pro-Moscow nations. And then there's what happened in LeViv yesterday. In the western Ukrainian city, authorities are investigating a deadly explosion. They killed a police officer and injured 25 others. Ukrainian officials say a break-in was reported at a store before officers arrived.

When police reached the scene, a bomb detonated, followed by a second blast that appeared to have been designed to target first responders. Law enforcement agencies arrested several people, but details so far remains slim. Ukraine's Interior Ministry says there is, quote, every reason to believe the attack was ordered by Russia. The mayor of Lviv called it, quote, an act of terrorism. So, as the anniversary of Putin's war approaches, Moscow is signaling that it intends to keep prosecuting this conflict through force,

striking civilian infrastructure, testing European unity, and escalating even as it speaks of negotiations. Okay, coming up in today's back of the brief, Pakistan launches cross-border strikes into Afghanistan, raising tensions along a volatile frontier. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here, let me take just a moment to talk about personal finances. That's an important subject, right? So here's a question.

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New vehicle discount. Storage discount. How many discounts will you stack up? Tap the banner or visit USAA. dot com slash auto discounts restrictions apply in today's back of the brief i wanted to look at the pakistan afghanistan frontier where a familiar pattern of accusation and retaliation is unfolding once again pakistan's military says it carried out cross-border airstrikes killing at least 70 militants a claim that afghan officials say instead targeted civilians now here's what we know so far the pakistan's deputy interior minister told in islamabad

television outlet that the strikes targeted hideouts used by militants responsible for recent attacks inside Pakistan. But according to the Associated Press, the Interior Minister did not present evidence to back up the casualty figures. State-run media later reported the number of militants killed rose to 80. So Islamabad is framing the a air strikes as a precise counterterrorism operation, intelligence-driven, selective and necessary. But Kabul is offering a different account. Afghan officials say the strikes hit civilian areas in Nangahar and Paktika provinces, including a religious institution. A spokesman for the Taliban government said the attacks, quote,

killed and wounded dozens, including women and children, and they dismissed Pakistan's military death claim as, quote, inaccurate. A local Afghan tribal elder doubled down on Kabul's claim, insisting those killed were not militants at all. He said, quote, they were poor people who suffered greatly. those killed were neither Taliban nor military personnel nor members of the former government, end quote. Now, the provincial director of the Afghan Red Crescent, which is an affiliate of the Red Cross, said 18 people were killed in Nangahar and several others were wounded.

Still, though, as is with many of the Pakistan-Afghanistan skirmishes and conflicts, an exact death toll following cross-border attacks remains very difficult to verify. Kabul summoned Pakistan's ambassador in protest, Afghanistan's foreign ministry called the strikes a violation of its sovereignty and said defending the country's territory is the Islamic Emirates, quote, Sharia responsibility, warning that Pakistan would bear responsibility for the consequences. So why they are strikes over the weekend? Well, as we've been tracking, the Pakistan-Afghanistan border has been anything but quiet in recent days and weeks and months. Pakistani officials point to a surge in attacks inside their own borders. Just hours before the strikes, a suicide bomber targeted a security convoy in the northern Pakistani border town of Banu, killing two soldiers, including a senior officer. Days earlier, another bomber rammed an explosives-laden vehicle into a security post

in a northern Pakistan district near the Afghan frontier, killing 11 soldiers and one child. Authorities in Islamabad later said the attacker was an Afghan national. Pakistan's information minister says Islamabad is, quote, conclusive evidence that recent attacks, including a suicide bombing at a Shiat mosque in the capital they killed 31 worshippers, was carried out by militants acting on the, quote, behest of their Afghanistan-based leadership and handlers. As we profiled here on the podcast, Pakistan, as long accused the Tariq I Taliban Pakistan, or the TTP, of operating from Afghan soil. Kabul and the terror group deny that. Now, militant violence has surged in Pakistan, much of it blamed on the TTP and outlawed separatist groups. It's important to note that the TTP is

separate but closely aligned with Afghanistan's Taliban. That's an alignment that deepens mistrust between the two governments. And despite the ceasefire, that was brokered between Islamabad and Kabul after deadly border clashes back in October of this past year. Those killed dozens of soldiers and civilians and suspected militants. Well, the underlying tension and mistrust remain. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Monday, the 23rd of February. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And hopefully, you had the chance to check out this weekend's PDB Situation Report. We were joined by former CIA analyst, author, and all around Man About Town, Buck Sexton,

along with retired naval intelligence commander, Paul Chabot. If you didn't have a chance to see it, don't fret. You can still catch it and past episodes on our YouTube channel. Check that out on YouTube, oddly enough, at President's Daily Brief, and, of course, on podcast platforms everywhere. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.