The President's Daily Brief - February 24th, 2026: Ukraine Claws Back Ground As Russia’s Military Stalls & Another Round of Iran Diplomacy Ahead

Episode Date: February 24, 2026

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: Four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, new signs suggest Moscow’s battlefield momentum may be fading. Russian troop levels have plateaued for the first time since the war started, and Ukrainian forces are reclaiming ground in key sectors. Ukraine hits a diplomatic roadblock as Hungary blocks a major European Union loan package and new sanctions on Russia, exposing fractures inside the bloc at a critical moment in the war. Diplomatic efforts to avoid a war with Iran continue as U.S. envoys head to Geneva for high-stakes talks — even as the threat of American strikes remains firmly on the table. In today’s Back of the Brief — the fallout from the killing of cartel boss El Mencho spreads across Mexico. Americans in Puerto Vallarta are urged to shelter in place as unrest, road blockades, and flight disruptions ripple through tourist hubs. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.  YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Cardiff: Get fast business funding without bank delays—apply in minutes with Cardiff and access up to $500,000 in same‑day funding at https://Cardiff.co/PDB  American Financing: Call American Financing today to find out how customers are saving an avg of $800/mo. NMLS 182334, https://nmlsconsumeraccess.org APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1881 for details about credit costs and terms. Visit http://www.AmericanFinancing.net/PDB Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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bidding. Plus, the clock keeps ticking with Iran. U.S. envoys are heading to Geneva for more indirect talks, even as the threat of American strikes loom on the horizon. And in today's back of the brief, the aftermath of El Mentiono's killing triggers unrest in Mexico, with Americans in Puerto Vallata told to shelter in place as flights are canceled and diverted. But first, today's PDB spotlight. Four years ago today, Russian troops, tanks, and artillery began streaming across the Ukrainian border, in what many analysts and Putin himself assumed would be a campaign measured in weeks, if not days. Columns advanced from multiple directions.

They surged westward into Ukraine's eastern provinces from Russian territory, while armored units drove south from Belarus toward the capital. Missiles rained down across the country. Western intelligence warned that Kiev could fall quickly. Of course, all the assumptions failed to capture the grit and determination of Ukraine's defenders and the profound miscalculations, missteps, and misinformation inside the Kremlin. Four years later, the map looks very different from those early expectations. Russia occupies roughly one-fifth of Ukraine's territory, in some places, less territory than it captured in those first days.

The war has become Europe's largest land conflict since World War II, and in many ways resembles the grinding trench warfare of World War I. Hundreds of thousands have been killed or wounded. Millions of Ukrainians have been displaced and tens of billions of dollars in Western military aid have poured into Kiev. But here's what stands out on this fourth anniversary. For the first time, since the full-scale invasion began, Russia's war machine appears to have stopped growing. According to reporting this week, the number of Russian occupations troops inside Ukraine has plateaued over the past six months, holding steady at just a little over 700,000 personnel, including reserves. That figure has not increased, despite Moscow meeting its

recruitment targets. The reason that's significant is that for much of this war, Russia relied on sheer mass, mobilizing additional troops, feeding manpower into meat grinder assaults, and accepting staggering casualties in exchange for incremental gains. It was a brutal math problem, more bodies for those small territorial gains. But if recruitment is now merely replacing losses, not expanding the force, then the engine of expansion has stalled. A military that can't grow, can't surge, and a military that can't surge struggles to break a hardened front line. And over the past few weeks, we've begun to see signs of that dynamic on the battlefield. Ukraine's air assault forces announced that they've regained control of eight settlements in recent days.

Ukrainian forces say they've cleared Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups from more than 300 square kilometers of territory in that area. These aren't sweeping breakthroughs, to be sure. They don't fundamentally alter the map, but they are important. They suggest that in certain sectors, Russian forces are no longer advancing and in some cases are being pushed back. Zooming out, the broader picture reinforces the point. After seizing large swaths of eastern and southern Ukraine in the early months of the invasion, including securing a land corridor to Crimea, Russia's territorial gains have slowed dramatically. Analysts estimate that since early 2023, Moscow has gained only a small additional percentage of Ukrainian territory. The front lines have largely solidified into entrenched defensive belts and minefields and dueling grounds for drones.

It's a war of attrition. Russia still fields a larger population, deeper manpower reserves, and significant industrial capacity. It's retooled its economy for a war footing. That economy has shown remarkable resilience and continues to produce artillery shells and drones and missiles at high volume. Ukraine, for its part, remains heavily dependent on Western ammunition, air defenses, and financial support, and that support is no longer as politically unified as it once was. Fractures inside the European Union, although along not unsurprising lines, are jeopardizing agreements over further sanctions and financial aid packages, and we'll have more on that in the next segment of

this episode. Now, the numbers after four years are sobering. Europe's security architecture has been rewritten. NATO has expanded, energy markets have been reshaped, sanctions have strained, Russia's economy, but not collapsed it. Ukraine has demonstrated extraordinary resilience, but at immense human cost. And that brings us to the strategic question on this anniversary. If Russia can't grow its forces beyond its current footprint, can it still achieve its objective? If Ukraine can stabilize and, in places reverse, Russian advances, can it sustain that momentum without wholehearted Western support? And as both sides dig in for a fifth year of war, which nation's political will will prevail. Four years ago, the world expected a lightning strike.

What it got instead was this grinding war of endurance. Today, Russia has not achieved its maximum aims. Their goal was never just the Donbass or portions of eastern Ukraine. They wanted the entire country. They still do. But four years on, well, four years on, Ukraine has not been broken. All right, coming up next, Ukraine faces diplomatic headwinds as Hungary blocks key European Union aid and new sanctions on Russia. Well, U.S. envoys head to Geneva for high-stakes talks with Iran under the threat of potential American strikes. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, many of you know me as the host of the president's daily brief, but I'm also a business owner,

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America's Best Network based on Root Metrics, best overall mobile network performance, U.S. second half, 2025. Four new lines and a limit and welcome and auto pay. See Verizon.com for details. Welcome back to the PDB. We just walked through the battlefield realities of the Ukraine conflict. Now, I want to shift the focus to Brussels. We're hungry, has thrown down two vetoes

to block a 90 billion euro-emerger. emergency loan for Kiev and stall the EU's latest sanctions package against Moscow. Once again, Hungary's leader, Victor Orban, is showing his true colors. As we touched on in Monday's PDB, negotiations over the block's 20th sanctions package have been strained because of two EU and NATO members, that would be Hungary and Slovakia. And it's not just a routine objection. The 90 billion euro loan had already been approved by the European Parliament and endorsed by EU leaders at a December summit, where Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban, a long-time ally with

the NATO of Putin, negotiated an opt-out for his country. Now, Budapest has tied both measures to the restoration of Russian oil flows to their country. That dependence is the pressure point. Hungary receives roughly 80 to 90 percent of its crude oil through what's known as the Drusba pipeline. That's a infrastructure pipeline built during the Cold War that still links part of Central Europe to Russian export flows. Hungary and Slovakia have continued to feed Putin's war machine through their reliance on Russian energy. After crude shipments through Dusba were halted in late January due to damage to pipeline infrastructure in Western Ukraine, which Ukrainian officials said was caused by a Russian drone strike, Budapest, accused Kiev of, quote, blackmail, arguing that

the disruption was being used as leverage against Hungary's opposition to further sanctions. Or, over opposition to Orban's desire to appease Putin, now however you want to frame it. The Kremlin-friendly Orban said, quote, once oil shipments resume, normal relations will be restored, end quote. And he wasn't alone. As we've been tracking, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico quickly aligned himself with Budapest and Putin. He too threatened to halt diesel and electricity exports to Ukraine unless oil transit is restored. Earlier this month, Bratislava declared a state of emergency in its oil sector, underscoring how deeply, energy dependence continues to shape policy decisions inside the European Union.

And that is where the confrontation sharpens. Brussels hoped to finalize the sanctions package, which includes a full ban on services for Russian oil tankers, in time for the invasion's anniversary. Instead, EU foreign policy chief Kayakalis acknowledged that agreement was unlikely, citing Hungary's quote, very strong statements. She urged member states not to conflate separate issues, but to, no avail. And the timing here is something to highlight. Keeve signals it needs fresh EU assistance as early as April, particularly after U.S. military and financial aid slowed following President

Trump's re-election. That makes the Hungarian vetoes more impactful. They directly affect Ukraine's near-term funding outlook. And the dispute over energy also continues to unfold on the battlefield. Just hours before the Monday meeting, Ukrainian long-range drone strikes struck a key oil pumping station in Russia's Tunerstan region. That's a critical node in the Druzpa pipeline network located roughly 900 miles inside Russian territory. The facility

gathers crude from western Siberia, the Urals, and the Caspian, before sending it westward toward central Europe, including Hungary and Slovakia. Geolocated footage on social media shows flames and thick black smoke rising from the site. Ukraine's general staff claimed responsibility for the drone strike. Russia's

Defense Ministry responded to Keeves' claim saying it engaged 35 enemy drones over Tunistan but did not comment on the extent of the damage. So, now four years into the war, the battlefield runs also through pipelines, power grids, and the political machinery of the European Union. All right, turning our focus to the Middle East and Iranian nuclear talks, such as they are, Washington is preparing for another round of negotiations, indirect negotiations with Iran in Geneva. But after two rounds that produced no breakthrough, expectations remain low as American aircraft carriers and massive air support are positioned in the Gulf. The latest session, which is set for Thursday, will bring U.S. Special Envoy,

Steve Whitgolf, and senior advisor to President Trump, Jared Kushner, back to the table. But Tehran is again negotiating under mounting pressure. As we've been tracking, Trump has made clear he is, quote, considering limited strikes if the regime still refuses to move. Two carrier strike groups, the USS Abraham Lincoln, already positioned in the Arabian Sea, and the USS Gerald R. Ford, on route, alongside more than 120 aircraft, fighter jets, and refueling tankers are currently part of the leverage that the White House is bringing to the negotiating table. As I've mentioned, some assessments indicate that this is the largest concentration of American air power in the Middle East since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Now, before we even get to the substance of the talks,

You have to understand the setup. Washington is not walking into Geneva hoping for goodwill. It's pairing diplomacy with deterrence. The message is simple. A deal is available, but a delay carries consequence. The first round of indirect talks in Oman was described as constructive. Oh, really? The second held in Geneva was framed by Oman's foreign minister,

who's the mediator in these indirect discussions as a, quote, positive push toward finalizing an agreement. But when you strip away the diplomatic language and the tendency for all diplomats and negotiators to over-egg the pudding, neither session closed the gap on the central disputes. And a key dispute remains in Richmond, well, not to mention that the Iranian regime refuses to discuss their ballistic missile program or their support for their terrorist proxy network throughout the region. Basically, the regime is attempted to limit the talks to a very narrow element of their nuclear program in exchange for what they describe

as full sanctions relief. Iranian president must suit possession. said recent talks have produced, quote, encouraging signals while warning that Tehran is prepared for, quote, any potential scenario. The Islamic Republic's foreign minister, Abbasaraji, has gone further, framing the regime's nuclear program as a matter of national, quote, dignity and pride. He still insists that enrichment is a sovereign right under the non-proliferation treaty and says Iran is willing to fully cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency, really despite denying the UN nuclear watchdog full access

and transparency to its nuclear facilities over the history of its nuclear program but perhaps that just makes me sound churlish what iraqi has not said and what tahrin has consistently refused to entertain is abandoning enrichment altogether and that is the crux of the impasse for Washington preventing iran from ever reaching a nuclear

weapons threshold means addressing enrichment directly Whitkoff said Trump is curious why Tehran has not yet, quote, capitulated and agreed to curb its program. The president's focus appears narrowly centered on stopping Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Administration officials have signaled that zero enrichment from the Mullahs would be the clearest, most durable path to that outcome. Again, no one is addressing the fact that the international community has never had the ability

to fully verify the compliance of the regime in regards to any past agreements. Iraqsheet says Tehran is preparing a draft proposal that would, quote, accommodate both sides' concerns, potentially even exceeding the elements of the 2015 nuclear deal brokered under then-President Barack Obama. How generous of the Mullis and the IRGC. Again, their track record is anything but accommodating or transparent. I know I'm sounding very negative here. Officials in Tehran have also made clear they are resisting efforts to broaden the negotiations to include ballistic missiles or Iran's regional. proxy networks, issues that remain central to Israeli security concerns. And that refusal is important

to point out, because while Trump's priority is the nuclear file, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is pressed for a far broader dismantling of Iran's military capabilities, including its missile arsenal and proxy infrastructure. And that creates a quiet strategic divergence between Washington and Jerusalem over the ultimate scope of any agreement. So let's step back and look at the landscape heading into Geneva. American leverage is increasing, military assets are in place, and the White House is openly signaling that it has alternatives if talks continue to stall. Meanwhile, Tehran's rhetoric remained steady, firm on enrichment and resistant to expanding

the scope of negotiations. The reality is, any deal that leaves the Mullahs and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, in place, and fails to allow for full transparency into the regime's nuclear program and allows the regime to continue building its ballistic missile program while continuing to arm and resource the regional proxies is not a deal worth making. Okay, coming up in today's back of the brief, violence escalates after the death of cartel boss El Mentional, prompting U.S. officials to warn Americans in Puerto Vallata and elsewhere to shelter in place. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take just a moment of your

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In today's back of the brief, the fallout from the killing of cartel boss El Mentiono continues, with American tourists in some of Mexico's most popular vacation destinations, now being told to shelter in place. The U.S. Embassy issued security alerts, covering parts of 18 Mexican states, warning Americans in cities, including Puerto Vallata and Cancun, to remain indoors amid road blockades and cartel violence. Flights in and out of Guadalajara and Puerto Vallata have faced delays and cancellations, while videos circulating online show black smoke rising over highways and burned-out vehicles blocking major intersections.

All of this comes after Mexican special forces tracked down and killed Nemesio Rubin Ocegara Savantes, better known as Elmencho, the leader of the Halisco New Generation Cartel, also known by its acronym CJNG. According to Mexican officials, security forces located him by tracking one of his girlfriends, meaning he had more than one girlfriend? What a cad, to a secluded cabin in the mountains of Topalpa in Halisco State. Special forces and National Guard units closed in on the site over the weekend. When they approached, his bodyguards opened fire, triggering a fierce gun battle.

Eight cartel members were killed in the firefight. El Mancho was captured wounded in nearby woods, but he died while being airlifted to medical treatment. Mexican officials are now confirming that the operation involved coordination with the U.S.-Mexico task force, integrating military, intelligence, and law enforcement personnel. In response to El Mentiono's killing, cartel members, have unleashed retaliatory violence across multiple states. Authorities reported 85 blockades nationwide, 18 in Halisco alone, along with attacks on gas stations, banks, and security forces. Vehicles were set ablaze, schools were canceled, public transportation was suspended as the violence spread across more than 20 Mexican states.

Thousands of Mexican troops have now been deployed to restore order. More than 25 security personnel were killed in the broader operation, along with more than 30 cartel members and at least one civilian. If this pattern feels familiar, it's because, well, it is. As we noted yesterday, previous high-profile arrests and killings of cartel leaders have triggered immediate waves of violence as rival factions and loyalists scramble for control. Elmenschel's death removes one of the most ruthless and powerful drug kingpins in the Western Hemisphere, a man whose organization has trafficked fentanyl and cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamine into the U.S. on an industrial scale. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Tuesday, the 24th of February. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirstTV.com.

And finally, remember to check out our YouTube channel. Some say it's the finest YouTube channel of all. Just search up at President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool.