The President's Daily Brief - February 3rd, 2023. Breaking: Chinese Spy Balloon Traveling Across America

Episode Date: February 3, 2023

It’s February 3rd. You’re listening to the President’s Daily Brief. Your morning intel starts now. ------ A good day to you, ladies and gentlemen. I’ve got four briefs for you this morning that are shaping America — and the world. First, we’re hearing reports of a new shipment of weapons to Ukraine. I’ll tell you why it’s important, and why an increasing number of Americans don’t support it. Second, a critical deadline arrives on Sunday. It has to do with diesel and jet fuel coming out of Russia, and it could impact your pocketbook.  Third, get those maps ready, we’re talking about Cold War II this morning, with updates in Kenya and Australia.  Finally, keep those maps out, because we’re doing a swing through El Salvador, Peru, and Mexico talking about prisons, blueberries, and a scheme to block the sun. Later, we close out the podcast talking about Canada and Groundhog Day. It’s quite a story. ----- Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of the President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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I'm your host and former CIA officer Brian Dean Wright. Your morning intel starts now. A good day to you, ladies and gentlemen. I've got four big briefs for you this morning that are shaping America and the world. First, we're hearing reports of a special shipment of weapons to Ukraine. I'll tell you why it's important and why an increasing number of Americans don't support it. Second, a critical deadline arrives on Sunday. It has to do with diesel and jet fuel,

out of Russia and it could impact your pocketbook. Third, get those maps ready. We are going to talk about the Cold War II this morning with updates in Kenya and Australia. Finally, keep those maps out because we are going to do a swing through El Salvador, Peru, and Mexico talking about prisons, blueberries, and a scheme to block the sun. Later, we close out the podcast talking about Canada and Groundhog Day. It is quite a story. But before we get to that, we got to get started.

with this, and it is a special last-minute addition to the PDB. The Chinese spies are amongst us, and this time they are in a balloon. Yes, I'm talking about the reports of the U.S. military monitoring a Chinese spy balloon that's transiting the northern states of America this morning. It's been seen for a number of days now, and in fact, Joe Biden was briefed on the balloon's existence earlier. The Pentagon apparently offered to shoot it down, but there was some concern about how it could impact folks on the ground. So I'll provide more details on Monday, but my initial read of this

is twofold. So first, we've known about these things for a while, right? The Chinese have floated these above Guam and Hawaii too for frankly years. And in fact, they have these little guidance systems on them. Quite interesting. I'll explain more on Monday. Second, while this is absolutely concerning and maybe worse than it's been in the past, I would actually remind us that the other espionage that Beijing conducts through our corporations, our government, our universities, and our press, well, those things, frankly, are of far greater concern and ultimate impact than these balloons, at least the ones that were flown in the past. Still, it is important, and it will complicate the U.S. Secretary of State's upcoming visit to Beijing next week. By the way,

this reminds me of the Japanese. They actually floated balloon bombs over the Pacific Northwest during World War II, killed a few folks, scared many more. Regardless, I'll keep an eye on this story over the weekend with much more to come on Monday. With that, let's kick off the rest of today's brief, starting with another big aid package heading off to Ukraine this morning. And based on a new poll, many Americans won't be happy about this news. So here's what we know. At some point today, the Biden administration will likely announce another $2.2 billion of military assistance for Ukraine. Now, of that amount, 500 million will be in weapons and equipment pulled directly from the U.S. military. The remaining $1.7 billion will be purchased from military contractors.

Now, in this aid package is a new piece of equipment. It's called the ground-launched small diameter bomb made by the Boeing Corporation. So it's a precision-guided 250-pound bomb that is strapped to a rocket fired by the Himars platform that we've actually already provided to Ukraine. Now, this weapon is important for a couple of reasons. First, it extends the range of Ukraine's attack capabilities. These bombs can actually hit targets up to 94 miles away, which is further than any previous piece of weaponry that we provided. Plus, they're really accurate. They can hit a target within about two feet of its desired endpoint. The second reason that this is important, though, is one we've talked about several times this week.

It's a reflection of the steady if gentle escalation that we keep seeing over these past months. The weaponry keeps getting a little bit more sophisticated, a little more deadly with each delivery. And then we wait to see how Moscow responds. And if they don't, well, we go a little bit further still. And that drip, drip, drip of escalation, well, as I warned, that's a gamble because it relies completely on luck. And to an increasing number of Americans, that lucky gamble just isn't worth it. On Tuesday, a poll was released by the Pew Research Center asking Americans what they thought about the country's continued provision of aid to Ukraine. About 25% of Americans said we're giving

too much. Meanwhile, slightly less, 20% said we need to give even more. Now, 30% said, well, right now that's about right. The rest of us say, oh, I have no idea. The poll, though, is interesting to me in that it's showing an increasing number of people opposed to additional aid. In fact, that number is up 6% since September. Now, I should note that the growing opposition is largely amongst Republicans and Republican-leaning voters. Democrats and Democrat-leaning voters, they tend to want more weapons and more support sent to Kiev. And to me, That's just really interesting. Definitely fascinating to see the parties switch from where they have historically always been regarding foreign wars.

Liberals, of course, generally opposed and conservatives generally in favor. It's a big sea change in the nation's politics. At any rate, I will keep you posted as these weapons get delivered. Speaking of Ukraine and the war in Europe, let's keep our eyes and ears open starting Sunday because we may have a very bumpy ride with diesel and jet fuel prices starting that day. And that's all because European nations and companies are no longer allowed to buy Russian distillates like diesel and jet fuel. Now, you may remember my brief a while back with data showing that Europeans were rushing

to buy, well, Russian distillates before the deadline. Well, starting Sunday, the time is up. So the real question is what comes next, especially for Europe? Well, nobody's quite sure. We've seen increasing shipments of diesel to Europe from China, for instance, plus an increase from the United States too. But actually, for Americans, that's not exactly great news. Analysts say that those increasing exports will likely crimp both the supply and increase

costs here at home, depending, of course, on the overall health of the U.S. economy and the related demand. But to be honest, nobody's quite sure how this will shake out for Europe. the United States. Lots of guessing, but nobody's entirely sure. Meanwhile, we should probably think about asking how this new rule on Sunday will affect Russia, as quite obviously they're losing a key buyer of one of their key industries. Well, Moscow has been working on this for a while now. We've seen an uptick in purchases of diesel, for instance, by the countries of Turkey and Morocco. That's according to Bloomberg News. Now, interestingly, in Turkey, they're actually reselling some of the

that Russian diesel back to Europe, actually labeling it their own. So a bit of a shell game going on here. Finally, for my fellow Americans, this volatility will also likely affect our jet fuel supply and prices. And that's partly because jet fuel inventories were already quite low. Last year, they ended at 34 million barrels, which is the lowest since 1990. That's according to Reuters news. The point, folks, is that in the next three months, you are probably going to see lots of market volatility when it comes to diesel, jet fuel, and I should mention, home heating oil. Energy markets will be trying to juggle this new supply and demand challenge as Sunday's deadline comes to pass in Europe. But not to worry, no matter what happens, I will keep you posted.

For our third brief this morning, we are focusing our ears on Cold War II. That's the series on the fight between China and the United States as it plays out all across the world. Well, we are talking about two very different places related to that war in Australia and in Kenya. But there is one thing that unites those two places. America is trying to build out some military bases in those countries, but China is there too, looming in the distance. So let's start in Australia and grab those maps. I want you to look specifically for the city of Darwin, Australia. It's up north. It's the capital city, actually, of the northern territory, a city that's the gate

way of Australia into Southeast Asia. And its port is increasingly important as the United States and Australia build out military infrastructure to keep an eye on China. But there's just one problem. Back in 2015, the Australian signed a 99-year lease with, yeah, China. Or to be more accurate, they leased it to a company in China that the Australian Prime Minister has said is, quote, connected very directly with the government of the People's Republic of China. In fact, Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has promised a new investigation into that least, which, well, that seems wise. But nevertheless, it highlights a challenge for America as the U.S. Marine Corps is now

trying to expand its footprint in that city. The U.S. Navy, too, is expanding its use of the port for its vessels, as well as for area exercises. So you might be wondering, is it part? possible if the Australians might break that 99-year lease with the Chinese. Well, it is possible, but unlikely, in part because Australia would have to pay back a very serious breakup fees, but also because the country is deeply reliant on Beijing for its economic livelihood. In fact, here's something that you might not know. China is far and away Australia's largest trade partner,

bigger than the next three countries combined, which are Japan, the U.S., and South Korea. In fact, Australia is still suffering economically from when the Chinese slapped $14 billion in trade sanctions against that country because the Aussies said that they would support an inquiry into the Chinese origins of COVID. And for that sin, Beijing cracked down on them hard. So folks, as we think about Cold War II and which side has more friends, it may be that countries like Australia are on America's side, but as they say, it's complicated. And we're going to be seeing a lot more of this kind of stuff as I talk about the issues. China's got their economic claws and a whole bunch of folks.

Pulling them away from Beijing to include, frankly, our own country's businesses, that's going to be a very delicate and a very painful process. With that, let's jet across. the Indian Ocean this morning for another set of Cold War II troubles. This time we are going to land in the country of Kenya. Now, if you happen to have a map on your computer, your phone, or in your mind, I want you to go to the border between Kenya and Somalia. And we're looking for a town called Lamu Old Town, spelled L-A-M-U. It's an absolutely gorgeous little town, having been inhabited for at least 700 years or so, with really interesting architecture and beaches. Now, not for

far from Lamu is Mandibay Airfield. It's a joint operation center for U.S. and Kenyan forces, mostly special forces, aimed at the regional Islamic terror group called Al-Shabaab. And I'll tell you, folks, it is a very tough mission out there. In fact, a couple of years ago, Al-Shabaab killed one soldier and two American contractors at that airfield, who were training Kenyan soldiers to take the fight into the neighboring country of Somalia, where that terror group controls around 25% of that country. Well, in the last few months, the Kenyan government has told the Biden administration that it wants to expand that airfield to include a longer runway for its jets, along with an assortment of buildings. And the cost to do all that would be around $50 million. And it's cost that

the Kenyans want us to pay for. But what if we don't? Well, apparently the Pentagon says is that the Chinese will get involved, either in the construction or as a part of a swap to get some sort of extended rights to the airfield. And I'll tell you, China would be very happy for that opportunity. They've got their one and only foreign base in the nearby country of Djibouti, and they are looking to expand that footprint throughout Africa and beyond. So what will Biden's folks do? At present, I'm hearing that the Biden administration isn't especially interested in ponying up the 50 million bucks for this expansion.

so we shall see who blinks first. Is it us or the Kenyans? Or maybe the Chinese will swoop in at the last possible second. So for what it's worth, and this is my analysis here, we should assume that more countries will do this kind of stuff during Cold War II. Everybody knows that we are in competition with Beijing and they are happy to use this moment in history,

like always, to get more stuff from the Americans. All right? In other words, it's going to be a very expensive fight, my friends. Very, very expensive. With that, let's take a quick break. When we come back, I've got three more critical pieces of news for you. So hang tight and we will be right back. USAA knows dynamic duos can save the day like superheroes and sidekicks or auto and home insurance.

With USAA, you can bundle your auto and home and save up to 10%. Tap the banner to learn more and get a quote at usa.com slash bundle. Restrictions apply. Welcome back to the PDB. I've got three more critical pieces of news for you this morning. First up on Tuesday of this week, the Central American country of El Salvador opened up new prison. It can house 40,000 people. Now, they call it the terrorism confinement center. And it was actually built to help relieve some of the overpopulation and the rest of the country's prison system, which is quite full. In fact, El Salvador has the highest percentage. of incarcerated people in the world.

And part of the reason for that is El Salvador's president, whose last name is Bukhelae, he actually launched a gang crackdown last March. The police and army have arrested more than 62,000 people as a part of that campaign. The government calls those folks suspected gang members and collaborators, while others say that innocent people have been swept up in that crackdown, which, based on my review, is almost certainly true.

But what's also true is that this crackdown is a very complicated thing. So for instance, America's Border Patrol has seen an increase of gang members fleeing El Salvador for the United States, all because of Buckelé's crackdown. Meanwhile, a number of officials in Buckele's administration are credibly accused of working with these gangs, allowing the more senior leaders to escape or be provided protection in exchange for cash. Now finally, during the country's last gang crackdown, the prisons actually became a recruitment centers for the gangs. And that's because if you got swept up, you had to join a prison gang for protection or somebody would shank you. Well, that process in turn fed the current crisis because eventually many of those gang members got out. And so now you've got tens of thousands of additional gang members that you didn't have before. So as ever, things in El Salvador are pretty messy this morning, and that's because this new prison of 40,000 inmates, might seem like a good thing, especially in the short term as crime rates fall, and they are.

But over time, there will be all sorts of unintended consequences to this, including more gang members streaming into the streets of El Salvador and America. That is, if the past is any guide. Next up, we head to Peru for an update on the crisis there. It's a country that we care about because of their very rich deposits of copper and silver and zinc, minerals, of course, that we need for all sorts of things, but most especially for that dirty green energy revolution that lots of folks have decided to embrace. Well, unfortunately, that supply of minerals has come under attack following protests last month. Actually, back in December, come to think of it.

When the then president was thrown out of office, his supporters, mostly far leftists, have been rioting ever since. Well, on Wednesday, the Peruvian Congress decided to hear out one demand made by the protesters, namely to authorize new elections. Well, Congress voted on that idea, and they voted it down, twice, actually. So the debate there continues on when or whether to move forward with a new date for the next general election, and that means we'll likely see increasing protests, which will probably be increasingly violent. And for what it's worth, these protests are having a very nasty effect on the country.

They've lost around 30% of their copper output, but it's not just those minerals that we should care about. Their agricultural industry has suffered, too, a $300 million loss. More importantly, for American consumers, that's going to hit you, because you are going to pay more for blueberries and table grapes and asparagus. And that's because Peru is the world's biggest exporter of blueberries of all things, and they're a major supplier of grapes and asparagus too. But unfortunately, those crops, they're not getting out. And increasingly, amount of all three of those things are rotting in the fields

because roads are blocked, and so two are key ports. And it's for those reasons, my friends, that I'm going to be keeping a very close eye on the latest out of Peru. And that takes us to our last brief of the morning. we're heading to Mexico for this one, and I got to tell you, it's one of the most unusual briefs I have ever given you. Now, to understand it, you have to understand something called solar geoengineering. And that's a very fancy way of saying, you're going to mess with the atmosphere or the stratosphere to block the sun or block some amount of the sunlight from reaching the planet's surface. And it's an idea of being promoted by climate change activists as they look for solutions to the earth heating up, they say. And here's how it works.

Using high altitude balloons or rockets, you shoot certain particles into the stratosphere called sulfur dioxide. And those particles reflect some amount of sunlight back out into space. Well, an American named Luke Isman has been working on this idea, along with mainstream scientists who are actually pretty nervous about doing this. They say it's untested with considerable risks. Nobody quite knows how these particles. particles will interact with other chemicals in the atmosphere and stratosphere.

Plus, studies suggest that it could actually lower rains in some places, maybe even cause a global freeze. Well, none of that frightens Luke Isman. In fact, he raised just shy of a million bucks to float some balloons into the sky with these sulfur dioxide particles, and he was going to do it and charge companies for the pleasure of it. He said that they would be able to claim cooling credits, something like carbon credits to help save them.

planet. And he was going to launch pretty soon from his base in Mexico. But then, on January 13th, Mexico's Ministry of Environment and National Resources issued a cease and desist letter. The project, they said, would be prohibited for moving forward, too risky. Well, as you might imagine, Mr. Isman was quite disappointed with this news, but not to worry, he said. He will be returning to America to relaunch this scheme. He expects to do so by mid-20203. So there you have it, humans messing around once again with Mother Nature, and in this case, the atmosphere. Sounds like a little bit of a plot, some sort of movie, where we all die as frozen popsicles. Anyway, I'll keep watching for updates on this one, because I'm not really a fan of popsicles.

And with that, ladies and gentlemen, we conclude your morning brief. But I've got one more great thing before I let you go. We'll be right back. The unravel tour, us North America with special guests. Get tickets Thursday, May 7th at Olivia Rodrigo.com. Welcome back to the PDB folks. I've got one more thing before I let you go. You know, we talk a lot about countries all around the world,

but we haven't talked much about Canada, have we? And that's a shame. It's a lovely country and lovely people. So let's fix that. And let's talk about the wonderful people of Canada. Yesterday was Groundhog Day. It's a great day, not just in the United States, but also in Canada, where it is a very big deal, apparently in some places.

But instead of using a Groundhog, they actually use a woodchuck, all to determine, of course, if they'll have another six weeks of winter or they'll get that spring that we are all ready for. Well, in Quebec yesterday, the organizers of their Woodchuck event, got a big crowd together for the big day, lots of kids. And then they went to wake up their... Woodchuck, Fred was his name. And I say was his name, because as they tried to wake Fred up, well, unfortunately Fred didn't wake up. He had passed away. Organizers had just assumed he was hibernating. In fact, they checked on him in December. But no, poor Fred had died. Well, as you can

imagine, this was quite troubling for the organizers. They had a crowd, folks, singing, dancing, when Lots of very excited kids. Well, the lead organizer, a man named Bob Blondin, he informed folks that Fred was, well, in Woodchuck heaven. But Bob was a fast-thinking fellow. He grabbed a kid from the audience who was wearing a Woodchuck hat. And he pulled him up on stage and said, all right, kid, here's the deal.

You're my Woodchuck. Are we getting more winter or more spring? And the kid who was apparently confused said, winter, we're getting more winter. You can read more about this absolutely incredible story on the French website, AFP. The article is perfectly entitled Marmot Death over shadows Canada's Groundhog Day. So there you have it. Quebec's contribution to the global forecasting community this year with a kid and a varmint hat. But not Fred. He's in heaven with the other woodchucks who have come before him. And that's actually a real shame, by the way. Humanity is still

plagued with the very long-running question of how much would a woodchuck, if a woodchuck could chuck would? Without poor Fred, I guess we'll never know. It's yet another unsolved mystery. And that, ladies and gentlemen, concludes your morning brief. As always, we close out the show, reminding each other of why we are here, talking about our country and our world. It's the Creed of every good spy and every smart American. It's from John chapter 8, verse 32. And you shall know the truth. And the truth shall make you free. Good day.