The President's Daily Brief - February 6th, 2023. The Balloon.

Episode Date: February 6, 2023

It’s February 6th. You’re listening to the President’s Daily Brief. Your morning intel starts now. ------ A good day to you, ladies and gentlemen. I’ve got a Special Brief for you this morning. We are going to discuss the Chinese spy balloon saga that has unfolded over the past 10 days or so. And to be clear, it’s not just one balloon over the United States. We have reports this morning out of the South American country of Colombia that they too had one of these Chinese spy balloons pass over the top of their nation.  So this morning we’re going to talk about all that, but not in a way you’ve probably heard so far on TV or the radio. I’m going to present this news to you in the way that it happened so that we can all agree on the facts in a chronological way, and then debate what those facts mean. ----- Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of the President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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I'm your host and former CIA officer Brian Dean Wright. Your morning intel starts now. Hey, good day to you, ladies and gentlemen. I've got a special brief for you this morning. We are going to discuss the Chinese spy balloon saga that has unfolded over the past 10 days or so. And to be clear, it's not just one balloon over the United States. We have reports out this morning from the South American country of Columbia that they too had one of these Chinese spy balloons.

pass over the top of their nation. So this morning, we are going to talk about all of that, but not in a way you've probably heard so far on TV or the radio. I'm going to present this news to you in the way that it happened so that we can all agree on the facts in a chronological way and then debate what those facts mean. So first, we'll start with what we might call the discovery phase of this saga. That's, of course, when the U.S. military realized that the balloon was over Alaska. that was back on January 28th. And then we'll talk about the initial response to that discovery. I'll share with you the three most likely options given to Joe Biden and his team.

And then you all can decide whether or not they made the right call. Finally, we'll wrap up with perhaps the most important part of this story that, honestly, nobody's really talking about it. And that is the strategy for our next steps. And it is so important, folks, because, well, everybody's watching now. you are watching, China is watching, and the world is watching, specifically at how we respond to China's provocation. As I'll share with you as we pivot to my analysis and opinion, shooting that balloon down, folks, well, that can't be the end of it, shouldn't be, and I'll explain why. So with that, let's get to it. Phase one of this saga began with the discovery a little

over a week ago on January 28th. That's when the U.S. military spotted a Chinese spy balloon started to cross into the state of Alaska. That's according to the Pentagon and open source press. Now, it is true that the Chinese government said then and now that the balloon was simply a scientific research vessel that was blown off course. Well, I can tell you that with high confidence, that story is an absolute lie. My sources have confirmed that the U.S. Pentagon is saying the same thing this morning. The lies out of Beijing continue. And the reason, folks, that I can tell you this with high confidence

is because we've seen a version of this spy balloon before. In fact, as I mentioned last week, we've seen them float these things near Hawaii and Guam in recent years. Now, some press outlets and the Biden White House are saying that these balloons have been over the United States many times in the past, specifically over the continental United States, namely over Texas and Florida.

in other words, it's not just Hawaii in Guam. Plus, they say it happened under the Trump administration, too. So don't throw too many arrows at the Biden folks. All right, for what it's worth, that assessment that it was shared by Trump or happened under Trump's wash, right? Well, he's contesting that. So too, do his intelligence staff. And look, we can dive into that debate later this week.

But for argument's sake, let's just say that it's true that Biden and his folks are being honest about it. Well, even still, there are very important differences between this event with a balloon traversing from Idaho to South Carolina to those other events in years gone by. And the most important difference is the capability of the spy balloon, differences that the Pentagon knew about as early as last Monday, January 30th. So let's talk about those differences. In years gone by, the versions of these balloons that we've seen lacked what I'll call sort of advanced guidance systems. Basically, they didn't have the ability to loiter in the air in one spot because they drifted with the wind. But these latest balloons had pretty good propulsion systems, meaning that China had the ability to both move and guide the balloon into new locations irrespective of the wind,

and then loiter above these spots for an extended period of time. So in other words, it was a step closer to the functionality of a drone. Plus, it was better than a satellite in some ways, or to be more accurate, it gave China different benefits. So generally speaking, spy satellites don't have an ability to stop and loiter over an area. They're in a fixed orbit and they keep moving. But these latest balloons can move. Then they can get to a spot and loiter and then move again. And this latest balloon over the United States did exactly that.

It's according to people with whom I've spoken over the weekend, plus lots of press reporting. But more importantly, folks, that's what the Pentagon understood one week ago by January 30th. The Pentagon understood that this was a different kind of threat, which takes us to the next phase of our facts, exploring the initial response to this new threat. Now, to do this right, I want you to imagine that you're the president, right? And I'm going to give you three options for how to respond to this new kind of threat. Well, first, you can shoot it down. and we could have done that as early as last week, given that it was loitering from Alaska

and then started to move over Canada into northern Idaho and Montana. Now, the Biden White House claims that they were authorizing the Pentagon to do just that, but the military chiefs were too worried about damage on the ground, especially hurting civilians. But from folks that I've spoken with,

that is not and was not a credible fear. The area from Alaska through northern Idaho and Montana is sparsely populated, and thus the likelihood of harm was astronomically low. But still, that was option one, shoot it down. Which takes us to option two. Let it float for a couple of days, maybe until Thursday or Friday of last week, and then shoot it down. Okay, well, why would we do that? Well, let's remind ourselves that the Pentagon knew that this was a new type of Chinese technology.

And so by watching it, and perhaps work, working with my old colleagues in the military and intelligence community, we could both learn more about China's new gear and learn which targets that they were most interested in. There's value in knowing that. It tells us their gaps of knowledge. Plus, there's another potential bonus with option two. We might be able to design a covert operation where we feed the Chinese communication system on that balloon, some garbage data. In other words, we either scramble communications back to Beijing or we upload. false information. But the risk of this second option, you know, letting it float a while and then

shoot it down, is that you necessarily have to give China some time to fly their spy device over U.S. territory. So, yeah, we lose something to Beijing as we try to get a gain. And that again, we might not gain anything at all, largely because covert operations do fail, especially when we put them together quickly, as we would have in this case. All right, well, that takes us then to the third option. Let it float all the way across America and then into the Atlantic Ocean where you shoot it down there. Now, it is true that this third option gives our military and intelligence communities a pretty good chance to collect the most information about this new Chinese balloon and potentially create a really interesting covert operation. But as you can imagine,

this option also creates a very grave risk. In other words, we also end up allowing China to learn a lot more information than frankly we'd otherwise like. And there's also another problem with this third option. It tells China that will let them float a device across America and do nothing about it. And that's quite helpful for Beijing to know. Because the next time they do this, and I suspect they will, maybe they don't just put some sort of advanced camera to take images on that balloon, right? Maybe the next time they strap on something called an electromagnetic pulse or EMP bomb.

We'll discuss that further in another brief. The point, folks, is that if you were in the White House last Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday, going through the discovery and sort of response phases with the Pentagon, you would be wrestling with these three options and the pros and cons of each. I'll let you decide which one is best at the time and why. But as you're thinking about what you would choose, your calculus would have changed last Wednesday. because that's when the public learned of this spy balloon of the country,

with pictures and videos bouncing around the internet. And so very quickly, it became obvious to the American people and the world that the Chinese had a very big spy balloon floating over our country. So now you have to rethink things. And that's because before it was a secret, but not anymore. Now, as of last Wednesday, there's a new cost to letting that balloon fly over America. and that cost is we look weak and China looks strong. And based on my Cold War II briefs,

which is this idea that America and China are locked in a global battle for supremacy, well, letting an enemy spy balloon float across your country unbothered, well, that's kind of a problem, because the optics are absolutely horrible, even if you had a very good operational or intelligence reason to let that thing float on through. Well, for better or worse, it appears that to Joe, Biden and his team were willing to bear the cost of option number three.

They just let it sail across America. Now, to be clear, I don't know why they chose that option. Maybe it was, as I said, because they wanted to learn more about this new balloon and perhaps counter it with some sort of covert operation. Although, then again, maybe I'm giving them too much credit. Maybe Biden and the Pentagon just shrugged it off for other reasons. But regardless, I am digging into this. But it doesn't matter, ultimately, because we are now living with Biden's

choice. The balloon was shot down over the weekend, over the Atlantic Ocean, all right, and the U.S. Navy is retrieving the debris as I speak. All right, folks. So let's imagine we are now back in the White House waiting for these reports on all that debris. What's our strategy for our next steps? In other words, do you do anything in response to China's operation over U.S. oil? And if so, should it be equal to what they did? Or should we escalate a bit to prove a point? And whatever we do, should that be public or private? Now, what's the benefit to having a public versus private response? Well, for this phase of the saga, and to answer those questions,

I'm going to pivot from facts and data to analysis and opinion, all based on my lifetime of working national security. But before I do, let's take a quick break. And when we come back, we will talk about why I think that this part of the balloon saga is now the most important part of the whole story. We'll be right back. Welcome back to the PDB. We are talking this morning about the Chinese spy balloon,

both the discovery and the initial response from last week. And now we're going to pivot to what's, frankly, the most important part of this moment on history. It's our strategy for what comes next. So what should we do? What do you think? Anything? And if we launch an operation and response,

should it be equal to what they do? did or should we escalate a touch to just prove a point? And whatever we do, should it be public or private? Because there is a big difference with very different goals. Let me now pivot from facts and data to my analysis and opinion. So if a president does nothing in this scenario, or if his or her response is non-public, then to the world, it appears that America is weak. All right? Shooting down a spy balloon after it accomplished its mission, that looks weak. And we would then look very weak at the very important moment in world history in which we find ourselves. It's a moment where we need to be perceived as strong. That's because we're slowly putting together a new generation of allies

to fight back against Beijing as part of what I and others call Cold War II. And it's not just our allies that we need to be thinking about here. I mean, imagine being in Beijing this morning. I mean, you're thinking to yourself, wow, we just stood up to America. We flew a spy balloon over their country and they did nothing. And from that, we learned something very important. America is weak and in decline. I mean, folks, China just probed America's defenses and we did nothing about it until it was all over. That is very valuable knowledge for China's leadership and military,

especially as we talk about a potential war in Taiwan over the next few years. And that is why, in my strongest of opinions, based on a lifetime of work in national security, that it is vital that Mr. Biden and his team respond to China in a very public way. And it needs to be at least as provocative as what they did. All right. Well, so what could our responses look like? I actually think that there are a lot of good ones. But here's one that I would consider.

we could send unarmed surveillance drones of the concentration camps of Xinjiang China. As PDB listeners know, that is where Beijing has locked up tens of thousands of ethnic Uyghur people. And those people are forced to work in factories and farms that make everything from clothes to solar panels, even Christmas decorations. So we ought to deploy those surveillance drones and capture video of those concentration camps. And then you take that video and you broadcast it to the world. world. And the goal here is very simple. You remind people of how evil China is. You remind people that the world must stop the Communist Party in Beijing by any and all means necessary. You make that moral case by letting the video speak for itself. Then you pick up the phone to President Xi of China

and you make it very clear that every time he pulls one of these stunts, whether it be with a balloon or otherwise, we will respond in kind and publicly. So the message there is that America plays to win. So you want to play? All right, that's fine. Game on and good luck. And then we start calling other key allies, plus countries sitting on the fence. And we tell them that decisions have to be made sooner or later.

And we ask them, well, whose side are you going to be on? And to be clear, we do this and we say this, not because we're trying to be bullies or moralizers or escalatory without cause. Instead, it's because we can use this moment for moral clarity. That and because our friends, like in Columbia, they need to know that we're strong. And I'll tell you, folks, that is the lesson that I have learned over and over again in my many years in national security. People out there in the world need to know that you're strong and you don't bluff. And you know, that's not exactly a new lesson, is it? humanity has known this for thousands of years, but in my view, it's perhaps best captured by a man

named Machiavelli in his book entitled The Prince. In fact, you might know one more famous lines from that book. It is better, he said, to be feared than loved if you cannot be both. Well, this morning let us as always endeavor to be both feared and loved. But if we cannot, and we cannot with Beijing, let's be fearful. feared. Right? Let's swing that sword of righteousness and just causes and lead the world. Because that's what we did with the Soviets and Nazi Germany. And we won. And that is what we have to do again with the communists in Beijing, because the stakes folks are the same. They are an evil regime. And we need to put that message in the starkest of terms for all. And with that,

ladies and gentlemen, we conclude your morning brief. But I've got one more thing before I let you go. We'll be right back. Welcome back to the PDB folks. I've got one more thing before I let you go. So today we talked about what I would advise the White House you all to do in terms of next steps with the Chinese balloon saga. But what I didn't speak about and what we should talk about is how Joe Biden will likely respond based on who we know him to be. Now, I can't predict what exactly he will do, but I think that we should ask when it comes to issues with Beijing, can we trust the man sitting in the Oval Office to do the right thing,

to defend and protect America? And let me offer you three data points as you consider your answer to that question. And to be very clear, this is my opinion and analysis. First, back in 2020, the U.S. intelligence community assessed that China wanted Joe Biden to win in his race against then-president Donald Trump. And they assessed that because Biden was more predictable, they said, as compared to Trump. Okay, second piece of data you should consider. At a campaign event in Iowa back in 2019, Mr. Biden said of China, quote, they're not bad folks, folks, end quote. Well, okay.

he was referring to the Communist Party of China. So that tells you something. And then finally, consider this. Last week, we got confirmation that the Hunter Biden laptop is unquestionably real. And that's because Hunter's legal team is now suing the owner of the computer repair shop where Hunter left it. And the legal team is saying, yes, it is Hunter Biden's laptop. And that the repair shop owner unlawfully took it and shared it. Well, putting aside the legal argument, we can now.

say with 100% certainty that the laptop is real. And that's on that laptop. We know folks that there are repeated examples of Hunter promising to give his father Joe a cut of his foreign business deals, ranging from Ukraine to China. And to be clear, these are business deals that to this day, Joe Biden claims not only did he not profit from those deals, but he doesn't even know about them. In fact, he still insists that he has never talked to Hunter, not once about any of those business deals. And yet, on the laptop and in open press, we have pictures of Joe and Hunter and assorted foreign business partners at golf courses and restaurants. So you put all of those things together, my friends. Ask yourselves the question.

Do we have someone in the Oval Office this morning who will defend America against all enemies foreign and dimensions? or will he defend America against just some of those enemies, foreign and domestic, just not the ones who've given him and his family secret cash? So folks, I'll tell you, for me, that's the other real existential crisis of this moment. It's not just how China or the world sees us. It's about the loyalties of the man in the White House. Will he defend us or will he weaken us? and if you're honest, you can't tell me with high confidence that he'll defend America. There's just too much evidence that raises too much doubt. To me, that's the gravity of this moment.

That's the gravity of having a man in the White House who has been credibly accused of being compromised by not just any foreign power, but the greatest threat to America that she has ever faced. It's a sobering moment, my friends. And that's why, to me, it is so much bigger. than a simple spy balloon from China. And that, ladies and gentlemen, concludes your morning brief. As always, we close out the show,

reminding each other of why we are here, talking about our country and our world. It's the creed of every good spy and every smart American. It's from John, Chapter 8, verse 32. And you shall know the truth. And the truth shall make you free. Good day.