The President's Daily Brief - January 15th, 2025: French Troops to Ukraine? & A Russian Mercenary in Texas

Episode Date: January 15, 2025

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: Ongoing talks between Paris and Kyiv could see French troops deployed to Ukraine, even as the war with Russia continues. NATO announces a new mission to safeguard undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, following incidents raising fears of Russian sabotage and espionage. The latest TikTok drama, as Chinese officials consider a potential deal for Elon Musk to acquire the app's U.S. operations if it can't avoid a ban. And in today’s Back of the Brief, new security concerns at the U.S. border after a Russian mercenary was arrested near Roma, Texas, carrying two passports, a drone, and $4,000 after illegally entering the country. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Hi, Mike Baker here. I'm currently in the Middle East, crossing the deserts of Saudi Arabia and Jordan by Camel during a month-long expedition to raise awareness for the U.K. Special Forces Benevolent Fund. But don't worry, Mike Slater has got you covered on the President's Daily Brief while I spend my time pouring the sand out of my boots. Thanks, Mike. It's Wednesday, 15 January 2025. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Slater filling in for Mike Baker as he is traveling across the desert of Saudi Arabia and Jordan. My podcast is called Politics by Faith, and I host the morning show on Sirius XM Patriots, an honor to be here. Let's get briefed.

Today, we begin with ongoing talks between Paris and Kiev that could see French troops deployed to Ukraine, even as the war with Russia rages on. Later in the show, NATO announces a new mission to safeguard undersea cables in the Baltic sea, following incidents that have raised fears of Russian sabotage and espionage. Plus, the latest TikTok drama, as Chinese officials considering a potential deal for Elon Musk to acquire its U.S. operations if the app can't afford a ban. And today's back at the brief, new security concerns at the U.S. border after a Russian mercenary was arrested near Roma, Texas, carrying two passports, a drone, and $4,000 after illegally entering the United States. It's

coming up at first. Today's PDB spotlight. It appears leaders in Europe are considering taking a bigger role when it comes to the war in Ukraine as President-elect Donald Trump, set to be sworn in office on Monday. Ukrainian president Vladimir Zelensky said he spoke with French president, Emmanuel Macron, on Monday, to discuss the current state of the conflict, including the possibility of deploying French troops inside Ukraine. The Ukrainian leader did not elaborate, whether he was talking about using Western troops in a combat or peacekeeping role, though in recent months French officials have repeatedly hinted at the possibility of deploying a military contingent in non-combat capacities. These capacities include having French troops train Ukrainian soldiers from

inside the country, replace Ukrainian forces guarding the country's borders of Belarus to free up Ukrainian troops for combat, or serve as peacekeepers to enforce a potential ceasefire with Russia. The topic reportedly came up again on Monday, as the pair spoke about the need for Western security guarantees for Kiev if any just peace with Russia is going to be achieved. In a social media post, Zelensky said, quote, as one such guarantee, we discussed the French initiative to deploy military contingency Ukraine. We addressed practical steps for its implementation, potential expansion, and the involvement of other nations in this effort. While the idea of a Western troop deployment inside Ukraine is not a new one, remains highly

controversial. Last February, the French president made a similar suggestion after discussions with other European leaders in Paris, although those talks explicitly centered on deploying troops in a combat capacity. The idea went nowhere at the time, with alarmed NATO officials dismissing it outright. But more recently, President-elect Trump laid out a vision for peace that would involved deploying a European-led coalition of ground troops to secure and support a limited ceasefire with Moscow. Trump has said he wants European allies to shoulder the main financial and military responsibilities for overseeing a halt to Russian hostilities. But even if Western troops were deployed as a part of a peacekeeping mission rather than a formal NATO operation, there's no

shortage of challenges, fears of Russian retaliation, logistical headaches, and divisions within Europe all cast doubt on the feasibility of this united approach. Complicating matters the Kremlin has rejected calls for a limited ceasefire outright and bristle at any suggestion of Ukraine hosting Western troops inside their borders. Last June after McCrone suggested using NATO forces to train Ukrainian soldiers, the Kremlin warmed they'd be a fair game for attack, saying, quote, it doesn't matter whether they're French or not. Far right and far left leaders inside France have also rebuked Macron over the proposals, arguing a deployment would carelessly endanger the lives of French troops and be seen as escalatory by Russia. In the meantime, as the debate

rages over the future of the war, Zelensky is doing his best to keep the Kremlin on the back foot. Ukraine has escalated their attacks deeper inside Russian territory in recent weeks, giving the Kremlin, which has relentlessly bombarded Ukrainian cities, a taste of its own medicine. In their latest operation on Monday evening, Ukrainian forces struck several Russian regions with a major drone and missile attack, damaging at least two factories and forcing schools to close in a major Russian city in the south, according to reports from CNN. Russia reportedly downed more than 200 Ukrainian drones and five U.S. made ballistic missiles during the bombardment, though there was no official comment from the Kremlin. Notably, one of the drones impacted near

an airbase in the Russian city of Engels, which hosts a number of Moscow's nuclear bombers. It's the second time in just the last week that Ukrainian forces have managed to strike critical Russian infrastructure stationed near the city of Engels. According to Forbes, Ukrainian drones flew at least 400 miles on January 8th to strike an oil depot near the airbase. triggering a large fire that burned for six days. The oil depot is a prime target for Kiev, as it reportedly houses some 800,000 tons of fuel used by Russia's long-range strategic bomber fleet.

The operations aim to slow the pace of Russian air attacks on Ukrainian cities as Kiev forces try to make gains in Russia's partially occupied Kursk region. How Trump's return on Monday will impact the conflict? It's anyone's guess. But the president-elect has indicated he plans to meet with both Zelensky and Putin shortly after his inauguration to begin peace talks. Coming up next, NATO launches a mission to protect Baltic-Undersea cables, and TikTok's fate might ultimately hang on a possible deal with Elon Musk.

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sign up for your $1 per month trial at Shopify.com slash special offer. Welcome back to the PDB. Mike Slater, filling in for Mike Baker. Shifting focus to Eastern Europe, where NATO is ramping up efforts to safeguard critical undersea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, unveiling a new initiative dubbed Baltic Century. This coordinated mission is a direct response to a series of, sabotage incidents tied to Russia and China. Secretary General Mark Ruta introduced the initiative on Tuesday following a summit in Helsinki,

where leaders from Finland, Germany, Poland, and other EU members pledged, told perpetrators of sabotage accountable. Ruta, the former Prime Minister of the Netherlands, plans to deploy advanced frigates, maritime patrol aircraft, and naval drones to enhance surveillance and deter malicious activities in the region. Speaking on the urgency of the mission, Ruta stated, Quote, across the alliance, we have seen elements of a campaign to destabilize our societies through cyber attacks, assassination attempts, including possible sabotage of undersea cables in the Baltic Sea.

The importance of these undersea cables cannot be overstated. They carry 95% of global internet traffic and facilitate $10 trillion in daily financial transactions. The enemy knows very well what that would do if they're able to cut as many of these cables as possible. as such they become a key vulnerability in escalating geopolitical tensions. Ruta stated, we will do everything in our power to fight back, reinforcing NATO's firm commitment to defending against attack. The necessity of the Baltic century mission is amplified by recent incidents that Mike Baker is covered here on PDB.

In mid-November, a Chinese flagged ship dragged its anchor over 100 miles along the Baltic seabed, severing cables that connected Sweden to Lithuania and Finland to Germany. Notably, the vessel departed from a Russian port. raising suspicions of coordinated sabotage. The incident mirrored an October attack in 2023, when Finland reported damage to the Baltic connector gas pipeline and undersea cables between Sweden and Estonia, also linked to a Chinese vessel employing similar tactics. Incidents like this evoke long-standing concerns over China's use of maritime sabotage,

a strategy seen in the Taiwan Strait. Just last week, Taiwan launched an investigation into whether a China-linked ship in intentionally damaged a vital undersea cable connecting the island to the global internet, further underscoring the global nature of this threat. Meanwhile, Russia's activities in the Baltic have also intensified. On Christmas Day, a Russian-linked tanker was implicated in damaging power cables beneath Finland and Estonia, dragging its anchor in an act that the EU High Representative labeled part of a, quote, hybrid campaign of Moscow's broader efforts to destabilize Europe.

The tanker is suspected of being part of Moscow's shadow fleet, a network of aging vest. circumventing sanctions to sustain Russian oil exports and fund its war in Ukraine. NATO leaders have raised alarms about the fleet, which poses economic, environmental, and security risks further complicating the Baltic seas strategic landscape. In response, under NATO's Baltic-Centry mission, Germany pledged significant naval resources, while Sweden plans to contribute warships. While operational security prevents disclosure of exact deployment vessels, Ruta assured that NATO's resources would adapt to evolving threats.

with advanced surveillance capabilities in a united front. NATO sending a clear message. Attacks on critical infrastructure will not go unanswered. Turn into China, as TikTok faces the threat of a nationwide ban on 19 January, keep in mind that is a ban from the app stores, Apple and Android. So if someone already has TikTok installed on their phones, they can still use the app and probably for a while. It may get buggy after a while because no updates will be allowed.

but TikTok will still live on in some capacity for a period of time. Alas, the ban on the app stores is 19 January. Beijing is reportedly weighing a surprising contingency plan. Elon Musk acquiring the app's U.S. operations. This development emerges as bite dance, TikTok's Chinese parent company, challenges the looming ban in the U.S. Supreme Court. It did not go well for bite dance. They've been fighting the ban on First Amendment grounds,

but the court's 10 January arguments suggested, may uphold legislation forcing the company to sell or shudder its U.S. operations over national security concerns. That was the question in front of the court. What is the balance between freedom of speech and national security? While Chinese officials remain staunchly opposed to relinquishing TikTok's U.S. arm, of course, because it's giant spyware operation, sources close to the matter indicate that Beijing is weighing its options, including Musk as a potential buyer. If Musk were to acquire TikTok's U.S. operations, the app could be folded into its growing empire, which includes X and the billionaire's AI startup, XAI. This move would grant Musk

access to TikTok's massive 170 million U.S. user base, potentially enhancing advertising revenue and data analytic capabilities. Musk's close ties to President-elect Donald Trump had a layer of intrigue as well. Having contributed over $250 million to Trump's re-election campaign, Musk has become a trusted ally, frequently attending policy discussions at Mara Lago. Also, Musk was tapped to co-lead the Department of Government Efficiency by President Elect Trump, along with Vak Romo-Swamy. Beijing may see Musk's influence as a strategic asset and navigating TikTok's precarious future under a Trump presidency. Trump has indicated that he's maybe not that interested in banning TikTok or enforcing the congressional ban. Complicating matters

further is China's massive share in Biden's, which grants Beijing substantial control over the company's strategic decisions. Chinese export laws also bar the sale of TikTok's proprietary algorithms without government approval, a restriction that Beijing has used to condemn U.S. efforts to force the sale as, quote, economic bullying and a theft of Chinese technology. Analysts from Bloomberg pegged TikTok's U.S. operations at $40 to $50 billion, a staggering sum that even Musk still grappling with debt from his $44 billion acquisition of what was then Twitter, now X in 2022. Even Elon might find this challenging to finance. Musk has opposed banning TikTok in an April post on X, framing the move as a threat of free speech,

therefore suggesting he might be willing to entertain the idea of buying it. Meanwhile, Trump, whose opposing administration has intensified pressure on China with potential tariffs and export controls, has hinted at possible negotiations over TikTok's fate. While calling the app a potential area for reconciliation with Beijing, he has also staffed his administration with known China Hawks, including Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio, suggesting any deal will be fraught with internal complexities. Marco Rubio's confirmation hearing is today in front of the U.S. Senate. We'll see if this issue comes up.

By dance for its part has floated alternative strategies, such as shifting U.S. users to a rebranded platform to sidestep the ban. However, such measures remain speculative and unlikely to satisfy Washington's national security concerns. For now, all eyes are on the Supreme Court's impending decision which could come as soon as Friday and the behind-the-scenes negotiations between Beijing, Musk, and the Trump team. Whether Musk will emerge as an 11th hour wildcard in the battle over TikTok's future in the U.S. remains to be seen. Coming up in the back of the brief, new fears at America's border after a Russian mercenary was arrested in Texas,

carrying multiple passports after illegally entering the United States. More on that when we get back. follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money. Because behind every headline is a bottom line. Whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto's trillion dollar swings, there's a money side to every story. And when you see the money side, you understand what others miss. Get the money side of the story. Subscribe now at Bloomberg.com. Ryan Reynolds here for MintMobil. I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same premium wireless for $15 a month plan that I've been enjoying. It's not just for celebrities, so do like I did and have one of your assistants assistants

to switch you to Mint Mobile today. I'm told it's super easy to do at mintmobile.com slash switch. Up front payment of $45 for three-month plan equivalent to $15 per month required. Intro rate first three months only, then full price plan options available. Taxes and fees extra. See full terms at mintmobile.com. I'm Mike Sider feeling in. for Mike Baker. In today's back of the brief, U.S. Border Patrol agents had a recent run in with a Russian mercenary attempting to illegally cross the U.S. southern border with a drone.

The man, identified as 31-year-old Tamor Pralev, reportedly admitted to authorities that he is a veteran of the Kremlin's infamous Wagner paramilitary group, which has been branded a transnational criminal organization by the U.S. Treasury Department. Border agents encountered him crossing the Rio Grande into Texas with the drone, two passports, and $4,000 in cash. on 4 January, according to a report from Fox News. A criminal complaint shows that Pralyev was questioned about his citizenship during the encounter, claiming he hailed from Kazakhstan. But at a court appearance before a federal judge in McAllen, Texas,

prosecutors revealed that Praleev was in possession of both Russian and Kazakh passports. At his sentencing, the assistant U.S. attorney expressed concerns about community safety should he be released, noting that the Wagner Group has a history of stoking political violence. He ultimately pled guilty to unlawful. awful entry into the United States and was sentenced to time served. He was, however, remanded into federal custody following his sentencing, and his current whereabouts are unclear. But this all raises some concerning questions about what he was planning to do inside the

United States. A report from Radio Free Europe confirmed that just last month, Praleev was honored in Russia for his service in the Wagner Group by an official government veterans' organization founded in 23 on the orders of Vladimir Putin. He received a certification as a combat veteran imposed reporting. photographs with officials from the Veterans Group called the Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation in an event on 12 December. The Wagner Group has earned a sinister reputation as a largely unaccountable proxy of the Russian military, which Putin has wielded with brutal effect in Ukraine

since the war kicked off in February of 2022. Wagner currently has some 50,000 personnel deployed to Ukraine, including roughly 40,000 convicts recruited from Russian prisons. The group founded in 2014 has been sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department for their activity on behalf of Putin regime, which has spanned across the Middle East, Africa, and Venezuela. Worth noting that Mike Pompeo, Trump's former Secretary of State, confirmed that the U.S. military back in 2018 killed up to 300 Wagner members in Syria. So you can imagine they're not very happy with President Trump in the United States. That is the President's Daily Brief for Wednesday, 15 January, to listen to the show ad-free.

You can become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting PDB. premium.com. I'm Mike Slater. It is my honor to be filling in for Mike Baker while he is away crossing the deserts of Saudi Arabia. Thank you for trusting us. Slater Radio is my handle on Twitter and Instagram and we'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay safe. Spread the word. Tocovus is the go-to for premium handcrafted Western boots. Stop by any store location for a warm welcome, a cold drink in hand, and a truly one-of-a-kind shopping. experience. Let our friendly staff help you find your new go-to boots, whether your first pair or your 50th. Finish things off with a complimentary boot brand to make them extra special.

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