The President's Daily Brief - January 16th, 2026: Why President Trump Changed His Mind On Striking Iran & Ukraine Faces Manpower Strain

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Starting point is 00:00:27 It's Friday the 16th of January. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, after days of escalating rhetoric, U.S.-Iran tensions on the surface anyway appear to be easing. At least that's how the White House is playing it. And now we're learning about one potentially contributing factor. President Trump's closest Gulf allies are quietly urging his him not to strike Iran, warning that the fallout could be severe. Of course, that's while the U.S. is moving a carrier group into the region. I'll have the details. Later in the show, Ukraine's new defense minister offers a stark assessment of his nation's war effort, revealing widespread

Starting point is 00:01:27 desertions and millions avoiding the draft as Russia continues to press its offensive. Plus, President Trump is threatening to invoke the Insurrection Act and deploy federal troops to Minneapolis to try to end persistent protests over federal immigration enforcement. And in today's back of the brief, Europe sends troops to Greenland as Denmark moves to strengthen NATO's presence on the island, and President Trump continues to push his agenda for an acquisition. But first, today's PDB spotlight. After days of escalating rhetoric, there's been a noticeable shift in tone, and today we're learning why. President Trump's the parrot reversal wasn't driven by a sudden breakthrough with Chakran, and certainly not by

Starting point is 00:02:12 taking Iranian regime comments about stopping the killing at face value. It was reportedly driven by conversations with key regional allies, intense behind-the-scenes lobbying from America's closest Gulf allies, countries that fear they'd absorb the immediate blowback of a U.S. strike. According to multiple officials, close to Arab governments, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman led what one source described as, quote, a long, frantic diplomatic last-minute effort to convince President Trump to give Iran a chance to show good intention. Now, suggesting that Iran be given the chance to show good intention is, of course, absurd, or laughable, or disconnected from reality, however you might want to phrase it.

Starting point is 00:02:55 But regardless, the Saudis and Qataris and Omanis reportedly made that suggestion. Turkey and Egypt joined in as well, all warning that a strike on Iran would, unleash consequences in the region that nobody would be able to contain. Ah, yes. Well, much better just to contain the killings to the protesters in Iran so the regime can get back to rebuilding their terrorist proxies and missile program. Hmm, but I guess that makes me sound churlish. In short, their message to Washington was that any attack on Iran would not necessarily stay confined to Iran. Golf leaders warned of direct retaliation against U.S. bases across the region, many of which sit on their territory. They raised alarms about disruption to shipping lanes, especially through the

Starting point is 00:03:39 strait of Hormuz, and they cautioned that energy markets, already fragile, would respond fast and violently. And of course, the protesters who have been killed, protesters who are risking their lives and those that have been arrested, I'm sure they're all worried about the energy markets. Many of these governments have no sympathy for Tehran, so this wasn't necessarily about saving the Iranian regime. It was about shielding themselves from the chaos that they believe would follow its fall. That pressure campaign appears to have worked, at least for now, or at least that's how the White House is messaging it. In the middle of this diplomatic scramble, quiet communication opened, reportedly, between Washington and Tehran. Some of it may have been facilitated by intermediaries

Starting point is 00:04:21 like Oman or Russia. Oh, good, get Russia involved in peace talks, because you know how good that goes. Through those channels, Iranian officials reportedly offered assurances that executions of protesters would not take place. Ah, and that the death toll from the crackdown was lower than what had been reported outside the country. Well, if they say so, I mean, when could you not trust the number one sponsor of state terrorism? Shortly afterward, President Trump publicly echoed those claims. Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump said he had been told the killing in Iran was stopping and that there were no plans for executions. He did not identify the source of that information, but the signal was clear. The White House was creating space

Starting point is 00:05:02 for talks. Markets took notice. Global oil prices fell, easing fears that a U.S. strike or Iranian retaliation could choke off supply routes in the Gulf. But as of right now, it would be a mistake, I think, to read this as a full stand-down. Even as rhetoric cooled, the military picture remained tense. The U.S. withdrew personnel and aircraft from its major airbase in Qatar, a move that often precedes conflict. A U.S. aircraft carrier strike group, by the way, has begun moving toward the region. And Washington announced a new round of sanctions targeting senior Iranian officials tied to the crackdown, including security and revolutionary guard figures. One U.S. official speaking to the Financial Times, who was familiar with the discussions, said that military options are still on the table. A sentiment echoed directly by President Trump himself.

Starting point is 00:05:54 The current pause in hostile rhetoric is being framed as conditional. And if Iran backslides, what are the odds of that? the White House is moving assets into position to make good on any threats. At least, that's the impression the White House appears to be giving off. The official told F.T., quote, Trump is ready to pull the trigger and claim the de-escalation, a bluff, end quote. And the region is already adjusting to the new reality. Turkey has begun talks to deepen defense cooperation with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

Starting point is 00:06:25 Gulf states are reassessing their own security postures, even with tensions cooling. There's little confidence that the crisis, is truly over. And yes, the question continues to hang over this crisis. When the White House said that help is on its way, exactly what help are we talking about? And when? All right, coming up next, Ukraine faces a manpower crunch as Russia advances. And President Trump threatens to deploy troops to Minneapolis under the Insurrection Act. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, let me ask you a question. When was the last time you woke up feeling rested? I mean truly rested, right? Look, if you're,

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Starting point is 00:08:31 Joy and blokes, get your edge back. Welcome back to the PDB. The war in Ukraine is lurching into its fourth year, and the strain is showing far from the front lines. The country's new defense minister in Ukraine says the military has recorded widespread desertions and estimates that millions of Ukrainians have evaded the draft. Speaking before Parliament, Ukraine's defense minister, Mikhailo Fedorov, didn't try to sugarcoat what's happening. He didn't frame the situation as a future risk or a hypothetical concern. He talked about it as a problem already baked into how the war is being fought.

Starting point is 00:09:10 Fedorov told lawmakers that Ukraine's forces aren't just under pressure from Russia. They're straining under their own weight, bogged down by bureaucracy, a Soviet-style command culture, and repeated breakdowns in delivering equipment where it needs to go along the 600-mile front line. Those conditions, he argues, are eroding morale and cohesion across the army. forces. And when Fedorov put numbers on it, the scale of the manpower problem, well, it snaps into focus. He told Parliament the military has recorded about 200,000 desertions so far and estimates that roughly 2 million Ukrainians have avoided conscription since Russia launched its full-scale

Starting point is 00:09:48 2022 invasion. That matters because it points to a growing mismatch between the scale of a war and Ukraine's ability to keep enough people in uniform to fight it. Now, Federov's remarks came just weeks after he was appointed by Ukrainian President Zelensky as part of a government reshuffle. Zelensky said the changes were designed to sharpen Ukraine's focus on security and defense development and diplomacy as Washington intensifies efforts to explore whether a negotiated peace settlement with Moscow is even possible. But before taking over the defense portfolio, Federov was best known for leading Ukraine's digital transformation efforts. He's widely credited with accelerating the military's adoption of drone technology and rolling out electronic government platforms that have become essential

Starting point is 00:10:35 during the war. His appointment was widely read as a signal that Kiev wants to modernize its armed forces, even as the manpower base shows signs of serious strain. Beyond personnel, the Fedorov flagged the financial pressure facing Ukraine's defense ministry. He said the country is staring at a funding shortfall of about $7 billion U.S. dollars. It's a reminder that sustaining the war effort remains heavily dependent on Western support. Some of that gap, he said, is expected to be taken care of by Europe. European Commission President Erslavandilandiland said this week that most of a new EU loan program would be directed towards supporting Ukraine's military and economy over the next two years. At the same time, Fedorov pointed to rapid growth in Ukraine's domestic defense industry

Starting point is 00:11:21 as a partial counterweight to these pressures. At the start of the war, he said Ukraine had just seven private drone companies and two firms producing electronic warfare systems. Today, well, that landscape looks very different with nearly 500 drone manufacturers and about 200 electronic warfare companies operating across the country. Still, I want to point out that the scale of desertions, the mass draft evasions, and mounting funding pressures underscore the central challenge facing Ukraine's leadership. Shifting to the U.S. After more than than a week of violent protests and a deadly confrontation involving an ice officer in the city of Minneapolis, President Trump is threatening to invoke the Insurrection Act to potentially deploy

Starting point is 00:12:09 troops to restore order to the city. Tensions in Minneapolis escalated again on Wednesday after an ice agent shot and wounded a man during an altercation, which the Department of Homeland Security, DHS, says began as an enforcement stop that spiraled out of control. Federal agents stopped a Venezuelan National, who was in the country illegally. The driver fled the stop, crashed into a parked car, and fled on foot. When an officer caught up to the illegal immigrant, two additional individuals jumped into the confrontation and attacked the officer. DHS says the officer was struck with a snow shovel and a broom handle. DHS said in a statement, quote, fearing for his life and safety as he was being ambushed by three individuals, the officer fired a defensive shot to defend his life.

Starting point is 00:12:55 The illegal immigrant was struck in the leg and remains in the hospital with a non-life-threatening injury. That shooting landed in the city already on edge following the 7th of January fatal encounter involving Renee Good, which has, of course, fueled protests and confrontations between demonstrators and federal agents carrying out immigration arrests. Homeland Security Secretary Kristy Noam said the ICE agent involved in that incident was struck by Good's vehicle, and that Good used her SUV as a weapon during the encounter. prompting Ross to fire after he sustained injuries. For the White House, this was a failure of local leadership. Trump laid the blame squarely on Minnesota Democrats,

Starting point is 00:13:36 accusing them of allowing unrest to spiral while federal officers have come under attack. In a post on truth social, Trump warned that he was prepared to act unilaterally if state and city leaders do not restore order. He wrote, quote, if the corrupt politicians in Minnesota don't obey the law and stop the professional agitators and insurrectionists from attacking the Patriots of ICE, I will institute the Insurrection Act, adding that such a move would, quote, put an end to the travesty. Now, if the Insurrection Act sounds familiar, it's because Trump has raised it before. Since returning to the White House, he's repeatedly floated invoking the rarely used 1807 law,

Starting point is 00:14:16 which allows the president to deploy the military domestically or federalize the National Guard over a governor's objection. You may remember he raised it on his first day back in office, tying it to the crisis at the southern border, and again in October of this past year, amid rampant crime in Chicago and Portland. Now, presidents have invoked the act more than two dozen times, most recently being in 1992, when President George H.W. Bush deployed troops to Los Angeles following the Rodney King riots. But the Minnesota Attorney General said he would challenge any deployment of troops in court, as the situation on the ground in Minneapolis remains volatile. Violent demonstrations have become a near-daily occurrence since goods' death.

Starting point is 00:15:00 Federal agents conducting arrests have been confronted by residents, demanding that they leave neighborhoods, sometimes blocking vehicles, and surrounding officers as enforcement operations continue. And following Wednesday's shooting, ICE agents have endured being pelted by rocks and being showered by fireworks as the crowds grow more hostile. So from the administration's perspective, Trump's choice of potentially invoking the Insurrection Act is being framed as order versus chaos.

Starting point is 00:15:29 As protests continue and federal enforcement operations expand, Trump's latest threat to send troops into the streets could trigger a constitutional clash between the White House and Minnesota's Democratic leadership, as the administration aims to protect federal agents. All right. Coming up in today's back of the brief, Europe is sending troops to Greenland, as Denmark accelerates plans for a stronger NATO footprint, responding to growing strategic interest from Washington. We'll have those details.

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Starting point is 00:17:34 Shop Ultima on Amazon or in store at Target and Whole Foods Market. This is Euphoria Calvin Klein, the new Elixir Collection, featuring three perfume-intense scents, inspired by a unique orchid accord, paired with vanilla, each with its own distinct attitude, each with its own universe, bold elixir, sensual, woody, addictive. magnetic elixir, sweet and romantic like a lingering touch. Solar elixir, a radiant expression of joy, ultra-concentrated for amplified impact and lasting power. Find your euphoria. Discover the euphoria elixir collection by Calvin Klein. In today's back of the brief, European countries are initiating limited military deployments to Greenland, as allied efforts to cool tensions with Washington over the Arctic Island appear to have stalled.

Starting point is 00:18:22 The move comes after a meeting between U.S. and European officials at the White House, on Wednesday, led by Secretary of State Mark Arubio and Vice President J.D. Vance, those discussions failed to ease concerns over President Trump's renewed push to acquire the Arctic territory. The impasse prompted European NATO members to pivot to bolstering the territory's defenses, sort of. An action analysts say is designed to demonstrate they can rapidly deploy military assets to the region if necessary. That's according to our report from Reuters. Now, it's important to be clear about what this is and what this is not. The planned European military buildup remains very limited in scale, at least for now, and appears focused on reconnaissance and coordination and

Starting point is 00:19:05 signaling rather than deterrence through force. Officials added that the modest deployment will also help Denmark prepare for upcoming military exercises. Specifically, Germany is deploying a 13-person reconnaissance team, which first traveled to Copenhagen before continuing on to Greenland alongside Danish personnel. Late Wednesday, a Danish Air Force aircraft landed in Greenland's capital, with uniformed military personnel disembarking at the airport. Other European contributions are smaller. Sweden is sending three officers, Norway, two, and Britain is sending one officer

Starting point is 00:19:40 to join the reconnaissance group. The Netherlands will also send a single naval officer, while Finland plans to deploy two military liaison officers. France's role stands out slightly more. Reuters reports Paris ascending around 15 mountain specialists, with French President Emmanuel Macron saying they could later be reinforced by land, air, and naval assets if necessary. Macron framed the move in explicitly political terms, saying France and the EU must be, quote, unyielding in upholding territorial sovereignty. While the number of troops remain small for now,

Starting point is 00:20:15 obviously, leaders in Denmark stressed they intend to move forward with plans for a, quote, larger and more permanent NATO presence on the strategic Arctic island in the near future. Regional analysts told Reuters the deployment sends two distinct messages to the Trump administration. One is to show that if the U.S. acts militarily, Europe is ready to defend Greenland. The other is to show Washington that Europe is taking Trump's concerns over security and surveillance in the Arctic, seriously. As we've been tracking on the PDB, Greenland, a largely self-governing territory under Danish control, has taken on growing strategic importance as Arctic shipping lanes expand and competition intensifies over its rich deposits of critical minerals. While the U.S. already maintains a military presence

Starting point is 00:20:59 on Greenland, European leaders have become increasingly alarmed by rhetoric suggesting Greenland's status could be subject to negotiation. The White House, meanwhile, continues to say that President Trump has not ruled out any options regarding securing the Arctic Island. Trump views acquiring Greenland as a national security priority, citing the need to deter adversaries in the region like Russia and China. Now, where things go from here? Well, that's anyone's guess. But President Trump has given no indication that he plans to shift his view on the matter. After Wednesday's talks failed, Trump reiterated that he does not believe that Denmark and European NATO allies can be relied upon to protect Greenland from potential occupation by Russia or China. And that, my friends, is the president's

Starting point is 00:21:47 daily brief for Friday the 16th of January. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirstTV.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the BDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Ryan Reynolds here for MintMobil. I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same premium wireless for $15 a month plan that I've been enjoying. It's not just for celebrities, so do like I did and have one of your assistance assistance switch you to mint mobile today. I'm told it's super easy to do at mintmobile.com slash switch. Up front payment of $45 for three-month plan equivalent to $15 per month required. Intro rate first three months only, then full price plan options available. Taxes and fees extra.

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The President's Daily Brief - January 16th, 2026: Why President Trump Changed His Mind On Striking Iran & Ukraine Faces Manpower Strain

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