The President's Daily Brief - January 20th, 2023. Russia Claims to Have Arrested an American Spy.

Episode Date: January 20, 2023

It’s January 20th. You’re listening to the President’s Daily Brief. Your morning intel starts now. ------ A good day to you, ladies and gentlemen. I’ve got four briefs for you this morning that are shaping America — and the world. First, we’ve got some spies to talk about. One that was in Ukraine, and another just arrested in Russia. I’ve got details on both. Second, we’re off to Africa this morning to Timbuktu. And I mean the actual city of Timbuktu, located in the African country of Mali. The Russians are there, up to some sort of funny business. We’ll talk about it. Third, an update on America’s border wars. But this one has nothing to do with illegal drugs or illegal migrants. No, this one has to do with illegal eggs. Finally, a listener question about the Joe Biden Intel Scandal. Some experts are saying that Mr. Biden could have declassified some of those Top Secret documents sitting in his garage and library. I’ll explain why the answer to that is no, he did not have that authority. Later, we close out the podcast with the announcement of a new segment. I’m calling it — Bryan is Wrong. And I think you’ll like it — even if my ego doesn’t. ----- Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of the President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is California's number one entertainment destination for today's superstars. Catch the Jonas Brothers return to the Yamava Theater stage on April 30th. The powerful vocals of Demi Lovato on May 17th and the signature Southern Country Rock of Eric Church on July 19th. Tickets on sale now at Yamavat Theater.com. Only at Yamava Resort and Casino, celebrating its 40th anniversary. You in? Must be 21 to enter. It's January 20th. You're listening to the President's Daily Brief.

I'm your host and former CIA officer Brian Dean Wright. Your morning intel starts now. Good day to you, ladies and gentlemen. I've got four briefs for you this morning that are shaping America and the world. First, we've got some spies to talk about, one that was in Ukraine, and the other just arrested in Russia. I've got details on both. Second, we're off to Africa this morning to Timbuktu.

And I mean the actual city of Timbuktu. located in the African country of Mali. The Russians are there up to some sort of funny business. We'll talk about that. Third, an update on America's border wars. But this one has nothing to do with illegal drugs or illegal migrants. No, no. This one has to do with illegal eggs.

Finally, a listener question about the Joe Biden intel scandal. Some experts are saying that Mr. Biden could have declassified some of those top secret documents sitting in his garage and library. I'll explain why the answer to that is no, he did not have that authority. Later, we close out the podcast with the announcement of a new segment. I'm calling it, Brian is wrong. I think you're going to like it, even if my ego doesn't. But before we get to that, we got to get started with this.

It's a tale of two spies, my friends. We kick off the PDB this morning with two important stories coming out of Russia and Ukraine, both focused on war and espionage. So let's talk first about Ukraine, where CIA director William Burns was in Kiev one week ago in a top secret visit. But based on local and U.S. press reporting, we now know that Director Burns shared with Ukrainian president

Vladimir Zelenskyy, three key things. First, he offered up the CIA's assessment of what the Russians will likely do over the next six months. No official readout of what that was, but based on the very personal delivery of this assessment, it was a very sensitive thing and very important. Second, Director Burns also shared how Ukraine, along with America and our Western partners, should respond to these Russian military plans and then to hit back to take the offensive.

And as a part of that conversation about taking the offensive, they talked about providing Ukraine with more advanced aggressive weaponry, especially tanks, including the German Leopard 2 tank, and less likely, the American M1 Abrams tank. So as a part of that possible set of offensive operations against the Russians, they also apparently discussed the possibility of taking back Crimea. So as PDB listeners know, that is the southern peninsula of Ukraine that jets into the Black Sea. Now, it used to belong to the Soviet Union, and then they gave it to Ukraine in 1954. But then, Moscow took it back by military force in 2014.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said both then and now, the giving away Crimea was a terrible mistake. So that's why he took it back. At any rate, the third and final thing shared by CIA Director Burns, at least according to Ukrainian press and the Washington Post, is that while the U.S. will continue to provide billions in aid, at least in the short term, things are less likely in the medium to long term.

And that's because this war in Ukraine has firmly become a war of attrition, a war where nobody wins for years until one country just finally breaks or gives up. Well, Western powers are growing nervous about that. They're nervous that Ukraine might not hold out. They're also nervous that the American people and some members of Congress might not hold out either. And there's one other piece of anxiety here. here, Western powers are depleting their own weaponry to the point that they're sacrificing their own militaries and readiness. As just one example, yesterday in Denmark, the defense

ministry there announced that it would send some artillery systems to Ukraine, but that in doing so, it would delay Denmark's build out of their own military. And so, folks, if you add up those three messages. That first, the CIA knows what Russia will probably do over the next six months. And that second, the West and Ukraine have got to find ways to take the offensive like taking back Crimea. And that third, there's some anxiety that Western governments and people might not be able to hold out in this war of attrition. Well, add up those three messages and it certainly increases the likelihood of major escalation in Ukraine very soon. More on that in a second. All right, so that is part one of this spy story, the CIA director secretly going to Kiev.

So here's part two of this spy versus spy story. Less than one week after the CIA director took that secret trip to Ukraine with those three messages, the Russians announced just yesterday that they had arrested a U.S. citizen for espionage. Details are very limited here. But the statement released by Moscow's Internal Security Service last night, Well, it's quite something, and here it is. Quote, the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation has opened a criminal case against a U.S. citizen

on the grounds of a crime under Article 276 of the Criminal Code, espionage. The American is suspected of collecting intelligence on biological topics related against the security of the Russian Federation. The U.S. State Department, for their part, is saying that they don't know what this means, that they are completely unaware of who this. might be, and they have nothing else to offer. The Russians, by the way, have added nothing else as of this morning either. Interesting. So those are the facts out of Ukraine and Russia this morning. Let me now offer my analysis. I'm going to give you three key takeaways. First, I think what

you're seeing, folks, is the setup for a much more dangerous phase of this war. And that's because so far there's been great reluctance by the West to escalate this conflict with Russia. And that's why they've been taking these sort of baby steps of the past 11 months, just escalating bit by bit to test Russia's reactions. Well, Moscow hasn't really reacted. No major cyber attacks in America, but no major sabotage operations against European cities either. Well, a little bit here and there, but nothing major. And so as anxiety is growing about this unending war of attrition, where our sanctions are hurting but not crushing Moscow, where our stocks of weapons are being degraded to the point that it's affecting our military readiness. Well, the U.S. and Europe are

looking for something or someone to break in this war, namely Putin and soon, which takes me to my second key takeaway. Let's talk about Crimea. This is a piece of real estate that both sides want and neither will stop until they get it. So from Russia's perspective, Crimea is historically theirs. Plus, it's got important agricultural and strategic value. In fact, it's home to Russia's Black Sea Naval Fleet, which is based in the Crimean city of Sevastopol. And it's why Moscow actually built a $3.4 billion bridge connecting Crimea to mainland Russia. In other words, folks, the battle for Crimea is going to get very ugly, very fast if it happens. Third and final key takeaway here, I want you to watch for what's inside of these future weapons packages that the West gives to Ukraine.

If we start to see some advanced offensive weaponry like tanks, especially those German leopard two tanks, well, that's a sign that things are going to get, well, spicy in very short order. Ah, one last thing. What are we to make of this case of the American citizen arrested for biological espionage? Well, as of this morning, I don't have the answer, but I'm digging into it. And I'll just say that the timing here is very curious. Less than one week after CIA Director Burns delivers a very sensitive message in Kiev, one that was not delivered, say, over a secure phone or secure diplomatic cable,

but in person, he went to Kiev in person. And then suddenly, a possible CIA agent gets arrested in Moscow. That's very interesting, very curious timing. at any rate, I'll keep you posting. All right, let's leave Europe this morning and fly south for the next brief. And you might want to get out your maps for this one because we are going to Timbuktu. Now, for most of us, that means some isolated place, maybe out in the mountains or the middle of nowhere. But Timbuktu is actually a city, a very isolated city, and the very isolated country of Mali in Western Africa.

And that is where the Russians have just delivered a critical number of. of fighter planes and helicopters to the Malian government, further pushing out the French and other Western forces who have been there for decades. Now, before we get into this fight in Mali between the Russians and the West, let's actually take a second to talk about this very unique country and why we should care. First, so this landlocked country in Africa is really two countries. In the north, it's largely made up of the Saharan Desert, filled with, oh man, caves and rocky crags and just endless miles of sand dunes. Now there aren't many people who live there except for a nomadic people called the Tauriks. Now some people called them the blue men of

the desert because of the indigo that dyes their turbans and often stains their skin blue. Centuries ago they had their own faith, but over time they were conquered or influenced by Islam and they become a mostly Muslim people. Well unfortunately some have drifted towards radical Islam, joining al-Qaeda as they battle for the central and southern part of Mali, trying to take cities like Timbuktu and Gao. Now, if these Islamic rebels were able to do that, they would push into the second half or part of Mali where the central government is located, actually in the capital city of Bamako. Now, this part of Mali, the central and southern, is just totally different. It's lush and tropical. It's got the Niger River. It's tremendous

this hydroelectric potential, which actually reminds me. That reference to resources like hydro, it's also part of why there's so much fighting and honestly, why we should care. So years ago, there was a discovery of gold in Mali, a massively huge rich vein of it. And it's led to Mali being one of the world's major suppliers of gold. Plus, the U.S. Geological Service has identified considerable deposits of uranium, oil, and gas. but none of that gets tapped into unless and until there's peace. Unfortunately, there has not been much of that, sadly.

Lots of fighting between the north and south, but also between members of the southern areas, especially between the military and civilian leadership, lots of coup d'etas and such. So the French have long been the kingmaker in Mali. They were the former colonial power over that country for a long, long time. But that's changed over the past couple of years. The military now runs that country, and they have decided to embrace the Russians instead,

in part because the French condemned the military's takeover of the country, so they just said, forget you, we're going with Moscow. And that takes us to today's update. The French media outlet AFP is reporting from the ground in Mali that the Russians delivered at least eight planes and two helicopters at a ceremony yesterday, attended by the Russian ambassador and the head of that country, Colonel Assimi Goita. No, Mali and officials are refusing to say if those numbers of weaponry are correct, or even if there's additional ammunition that's being supplied with this stuff,

nor would they comment on the role of Russia's Wagner Group, which is a paramilitary organization backed by Russia that operates all around the world to include probably and almost certainly in Mali. So, folks, that is the data and facts this morning. why I'm bringing this to you. First, who doesn't like to talk about Timbuktu, the nomads in the Saharan desert? Just cool. But second, and more importantly, it's a reminder that Russia has friends all around the world. Now, some of those friends are powerful, like China, India, and Saudi Arabia. But some of those friends aren't powerful, like Molly, but they either have

resources that are helpful, say gold or oil, or they have votes in international organizations. organizations like the United Nations, and those votes can help block efforts that punish Russia. And finally, depending on how this war in Mali goes between the North and the South, this could have spillover effects, with Al-Qaeda radicals fleeing into Western Africa or the country of Algeria to the north. And Algeria is really important right now. They're playing a major role in providing natural gas to Europe, replacing much of the fuel that Russia used to supply. So who knows what the Russians are really up to in Mali or how this war there might play out. But no matter what, I'll keep you posted and maybe send you a dispatch from 10 buck too.

With that, ladies and gentlemen, let's take a quick break. When we come back, I've got two more critical pieces of news for you. So hang tight and we will be right back. Welcome back to the PDB. two more critical pieces of news for you this morning. First, we've got a new crisis on the southern border, but no, no, it does not involve illegal drugs or illegal migrants. This time it is illegal eggs. That's right, eggs. Eggs are being smuggled across the border. But that's not going to come as a surprise to you, is it? Because back on November 14th, I briefed you all on how

avian flu was wrecking havoc on chickens, especially those layers. Well, here we are in January. You probably have been reading about or seeing headlines talking about the egg crisis. Prices are up 60% from this time last year. Demand up too. Well, with those market forces at work, it's probably not a surprise to any of us that some enterprising smugglers are trying to get some of those precious eggs across our southern border illegally, naturally. The Department of Agriculture announced earlier this week that seizures at the border of eggs

between October 1st and December 31st rose 108%. So let's just take a look at the numbers to understand why. In Tijuana, Mexico, you can buy a dozen eggs for around $2.50. Across the border in San Diego, you're looking at $6 to $8 a dozen. In Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, a dozen eggs will cost you around $3. But across the border in El Paso, Texas, you are back up to $6 a dozen. And that means some smugglers obviously want in on this very lucrative egg trade. Unfortunately, though, that is absolutely illegal and potentially dangerous.

Commercial shipments of unlawful eggs can lead to a fine of upwards of $10,000. Individuals caught without declaring their eggs can be fined $300. So there you have it. Let's see if the cartels actually muscle in on this trade. Or, you know, maybe they're going to end up being too chicken. okay, that was a terrible joke. I'm sorry. I'll just let myself out. Finally, this morning, we've got an update to the Biden intel scandal. A listener named Chip in Anchorage, Alaska, wrote in saying that he had heard from our good friend Bill O'Reilly, that contrary to what I

and others are saying, Mr. Biden actually had the ability to declassify top secret documents, including those in his home and office. Now, Chip noted that, Mr. O'Reilly spoke of Executive Order 13526. That executive order is one that former President Barack Obama issued back in 2009. And in it, the order allows for both the President and the Vice President to classify and declassify information, which would seem to suggest that what I said was wrong. Again, I said that Biden did not have the ability to declassify those top secret documents when he was vice president. So who's right, Bill O'Reilly or me? Well, I don't know exactly what Mr.

O'Reilly said, but I was right. Okay, here's why. It is true that the executive order allows a president and vice president to classify material, but only the president can declassify all or virtually all material. That's based on the Supreme Court case back 1988 called U.S. Navy versus Egan. Now, what this Barack Obama executive order does allow is the vice president to declassify stuff, but only the stuff that he or she classified. So let me just give you an example. Let's say that I am vice president, God forbid, and I have a conversation and I type up some notes. And I realize that those notes include classified material. So I mark those notes as classified. At that point, I have to follow a very strict protocols for how to store it.

But then, let's say, I want to declassify it at some point, the memo that I as vice president classified. Well, as the originator of the document who classified it in the first place, Obama's executive order allows me as vice president to declassify my own document. Okay, but that is not what we're dealing with when it comes to Joe Biden's intel scandal. First, Mr. Biden said that he was surprised that those documents were in his old office and in the garage next to the Corvette and probably the weed whacker. Second, when he and his team did discover these documents, they went into crisis mode. And as they say, they contacted

the National Archives and the Department of Justice and quickly got those documents back to them for secure keeping. Meaning that, Mr. Biden didn't declassified them. Obviously, they were still top secret and being held unlawfully. That's why they and the lawyers hurriedly gave them back. And that's why neither Mr. Biden nor his team has yet made the claim that any of those documents were declassified. And that's because he didn't have the authority to. He didn't originate or create those documents. They almost certainly came from the CIA or NSA. There's actually some press reporting conferring. that that is true. So, Chip, I hope that that makes sense, but just let me summarize this for you.

Vice presidents have the authority to declassify information that they classified in the first place. The executive order by Barack Obama allows for that. But vice presidents cannot declassify, let's say, a CIA document or an NSA document. The only executive branch person that can do that without consulting the originators of the secrets like the CIA or NSA, is the president of the United States. That authority to declassify without consulting anyone, well, that was confirmed in that 1988 Supreme Court ruling. And if you hear some creative attorney trying to tell you otherwise,

well, all I can say is that they are full of it, at least as of now. Now, maybe the Supreme Court will rule differently someday. One last thing, Chip, I am not saying that Mr. Bill O'Reilly was wrong. I didn't listen to what he said. Plus, I don't want him mad at me. He likes to call people pinheads, and I prefer to stay on his good side. And with that, ladies and gentlemen, we conclude your morning brief. But I've got one more thing before I let you go.

So we will be right back. Welcome back to the PDB, folks. I've got one more thing before I let you go. So when Chip and Anchorage wrote in, it got me thinking. One of the reasons that I love you all so much as my PDB family is that you all write in, and some of you absolutely love to disagree with me. And I love that. In fact, it's how the actual president's daily brief is supposed to work, too.

The intelligence community offers what it knows to the president, and they say, hey, we've got low, medium, or high degrees of confidence in what we're saying. But they never, or should never, say, Mr. President, we know for 100% percent. certain that we are right. That's just not how intelligence works. There are always gaps of knowledge. And that's how this PDB podcast works too.

I bring you facts and data best as I know them and I give you my counsel accordingly. But that doesn't always mean that I'm right. Never mind that my last name is right. And so I realized that I need a new segment. And so I'm proud to say

that we are going to start a once a month show here on the PDB. and it is going to be totally dedicated to you, disagreeing with me. Any issue, any of the counsel or opinion that I've offered, disagree with it from domestic affairs to issues around the world. So here's what I'd ask. Take this weekend and think it over. And when you have something you want to disagree with me on and why,

well, put it together. On Monday, email me. Make the subject line, Brian is wrong. and then make your case. Look, and you don't need to do a ton of research or anything. Just make a logical reason case for why you disagree. And I'll go through all those disagreements. Choose as many as I can and then present them to you all.

So the goal of this is to kick up some good, healthy debate, especially amongst you and your friends and family. But maybe me too. Maybe it'll help me see something that I didn't or appreciate a perspective that normally I would. All right, so email me at my personal website. That's Brian Dean Wright.com. That's Brian with a Y and write with the W.

Fill out that submission box on my website and away you go. Or email me at the email address that I've long shared with you, and that is, of course, PDB at thefirstTV.com. And just remember that subject line, Brian is wrong. and then let's see if I am and I'll bring you the first episode next Friday and to that ladies and gentlemen concludes your morning brief as always we close out the show reminding each other of why we are here talking about our country and our world it's the creed of every good spy and every smart American it's from John chapter 8 first 32 and you shall know the truth and the truth shall shall

make you free. Good day. How many discounts does USAA auto insurance offer? Too many to say here. Multi-vehicle discount, safe driver discount, new vehicle discount, storage discount, legacy how many discounts will you stack up? Tap the banner or visit usa.com slash auto discounts. Restrictions apply.