The President's Daily Brief - January 22nd, 2024: Tehran Tit-For-Tat, Israel Falls Short, & Ukraine’s Oil Offensive

Episode Date: January 22, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: We examine the latest series of confrontations between U.S. forces and Iranian proxies, including the weekend's violent exchanges and the White House's development of a comprehensive strategy against Houthi militants. Over 100 days into the Israel-Hamas conflict, we analyze why U.S. intelligence believes Israeli actions are falling short of their goal to significantly weaken Hamas. A discussion on the U.S.-led peace initiative, supported by several Arab countries, which seeks to resolve the Israel-Hamas war. In our segment, 'Back of the Brief,' we explore Ukraine's latest tactics in its ongoing conflict with Russia, with a particular focus on strikes targeting Russian oil facilities. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This podcast is sponsored by Blackout Coffee. It's the best way to start your day. A hot cup of American-made Blackout Coffee, family-owned, premium coffee, fresh-roasted and shipped out within 48 hours of roasting. Go to blackout coffee.com, promo code PDB, for 20% off your first purchase. It's Monday, January 22nd. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage.

Let's get briefed. First up, the tit-for-tat between U.S. forces and Iranian proxies continued over the weekend. I'll give you the details on the latest attacks and new reports that the White House is preparing a long-term strategy against Houthi militants. Later on in the program, over 100 days into the Israel-Hamas war, U.S. intelligence is suggesting that Israel's efforts to dismantle Hamas are not meeting expectations. Plus, we'll discuss an emerging peace proposal plan, led by the U.S. and backed by key Arab nations, designed to bring this conflict to an end.

And finally, in today's back of the brief, Ukraine is trying its hand at a new strategy in its struggle against Russia, launching numerous attacks on the nation's oil production capacity. But first up, the PDB spotlight. The back and forth between the United States and Iran's proxies across the Middle East continued over the weekend. We'll start in Iraq, where U.S. personnel were injured during an attack on the Al-Assad Air Base on Saturday. The base, a stronghold for American forces in Western Iraq, was hit by ballistic missiles and rockets at 6.30 p.m. Baghdad time. According to U.S. Central Command, the airbase's defense systems intercepted most of the incoming missiles, but some

did impact the base. In the aftermath of the attack, several U.S. troops have reportedly suffered traumatic brain injuries and are currently undergoing evaluation. The incident also resulted in injuries to at least one Iraqi service member. Now, the Islamic resistance in Iraq, a group of Iranian-backed militants who have publicly opposed the conflict between Israel and Hamas, has taken responsibility for the attack in a press release. Since the Israel-Hamas conflict, flared up in October, U.S. forces in the Middle East have been targeted at least 141 times, 58 times in Iraq and 83 times in Syria, primarily by Iran-backed militants wielding a combination of rockets and one-way attack drones. The missile strike at the Al-Assad Air Base occurred just

hours after U.S. Central Command announced a series of strikes on Houthi assets in Yemen. On the preceding Friday and Saturday, U.S. forces carried out air strikes against at least four Houthi anti-ship missiles in the Gulf of Aden, which were poised for launch and deemed a threat to commercial and U.S. Navy vessels. These most recent strikes represent the fifth round of such U.S. actions against the Houthis in the past week, targeting missile launchers ready to initiate attacks. Now, if it hasn't already become clear to you, these strikes have done little, if nothing, to deter the Houthi terrorists from continuing their attacks on maritime commerce in the Red Sea, and it looks like the Biden administration is preparing for a more long-term campaign against the group. According to reports in the Washington Post, the Biden administration is busy crafting plans for what's being called a, quote, sustained military campaign targeting the Houthis.

High-level discussions took place on Wednesday with senior officials deliberating this long-term strategy. Speaking anonymously to the post, administration officials outlined their approach. Their goal is to weaken the Uti's military capability significantly, thereby reducing their ability to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The long-term aim is to weaken. establish a deterrent strong enough to convince shipping companies to resume their normal operations through these strategic waterways. Now, as part of this strategic shift, a senior U.S. official stated, quote, we are clear-eyed about who the Houthis are and their worldview, so we're not sure that they're going to stop immediately, but we are certainly trying to degrade and destroy

their capabilities. End quote. Oh, well, apparently, the administration officials may not be as clear-eyed on who was actually responsible for the current chaos and instability. The Houthis are an Iranian proxy. They're doing the bidding of the Iranian regime and the IRGC. And by drawing the U.S. into a more complex and longer-term engagement with their proxy, the Iranian regime is getting what they want. More instability, more success in drawing the U.S. into a conflict without suffering any direct consequences. consequence. Look, engaging in a more involved conflict with the Houthis is simply putting a band-aid on a sucking chest wound. It doesn't address the root cause of the problem. The only way to promote long-term stability in the Middle East is to convince the Iranian regime that it's in their

best interests to alter their behavior. All right, after the break, we'll update you on the latest developments in the Israel-Hamas conflict. U.S. intelligence, as reported, that Israel is significantly underperforming in this campaign to neutralize Hamas. This assessment stands in stark contrast to the claims made by the Israeli defense forces. I'll also give you the details of a new peace initiative spearheaded by the U.S. and supported by several Arab allies aimed at bringing the conflict to an end. I'll be right back. Wireless can feel like a world of traps, but not with visible.

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Limited time offer subject to change. See Visible.com for plan features and network management details. Welcome back. We're over 100 days into the Israel-Hamas war, and serious questions are being raised about just how effective Israeli forces have been in achieving their stated goal, the destruction of Hamas. A classified U.S. intelligence estimate first disclosed by the Wall Street Journal suggests that Israeli forces have neutralized only 20 to 30 percent of Hamas's fighters. This figure falls significantly short of Israel's objective to completely short of Israel's objective to

completely dismantled the group, highlighting Hamas' persistence even as parts of the Gaza Strip faced devastation. U.S. intelligence also indicates that Hamas retains sufficient armaments to sustain its assault on Israeli targets for an extended period. Hamas has reportedly revised its military strategy, executing ambushes against IDF units before withdrawing back into its tunnels. These claims emerge amidst the IDF's assertion that roughly 9,000 Hamas combatants have been eliminated since the conflict's commencement, with about 1,000 fatalities occurring during the massacre on 7 October. The United States estimates the strength of Hamas at 25,000 to 30,000 members, and that's a more modest count compared to Israel's assessment, which suggests the number could exceed 30,000. In addition to those killed, Israel estimates that up to 16,000 Hamas fighters have been incapacitated, with half of them unable to return to combat.

The U.S. figures on that are far less optimistic, frankly. The report estimates that between 10,500 and 11,700 have been injured in the fighting, many of whom are potentially still combat capable. The report makes one more interesting note. According to U.S. military doctrine, conventional forces experiencing a 25 to 30 percent casualty rate among their combatants would be deemed combat ineffective. However, Hamas, of course, operates as an unconventional force, entrenched in a densely populated urban landscape and bolstered by an extensive network of tunnels that they spent

a great deal of supposed aid money building. These tunnels facilitate the movement of militants and the execution of assaults, complicating efforts to measure combat effectiveness by conventional standards. So despite absorbing enough casualties to make a conventional army ineffective, Hamas still has fight left in it. Now, efforts are underway at this time to bring the conflict to a conclusion, and we're learning details about a new plan being pushed by the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar. The Wall Street Journal reveals that this multi-phase plan is designed to cease hostilities within 90 days, initiate a release of the remaining hostages, and pave the way for broader regional normalization for Israel, as well as the discussion of a Palestinian state. So, let's go through this latest proposal, phase by phase.

In the first phase, Hamas would release all civilian hostages. At the same time, Israel would reciprocate by freeing numerous Palestinian security detainees, withdrawing from Gaza's urban centers, easing movement within the territory, halting drone surveillance, and amplifying humanitarian aid. In the second phase, there would be an exchange involving female IDF soldiers and the remains of Israelis for additional Palestinian prisoners. The third and final phase would see Israel pulling back to the Gaza border, with Hamas releasing the last of the hostages, including soldiers and others its deemed combatants. According to Egyptian sources who spoke to the Wall Street Journal, the stage would then be set for discussions on a long-term ceasefire, the normalization of

relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, among other nations, and talks to establish a Palestinian state. Israeli authorities, for their part, are reportedly advocating for a shorter two-week ceasefire, side-stepping conversations about a long-term truce. Negotiations are scheduled to commence shortly in Cairo. One critical note, the Wall Street Journal's report doesn't specify what would happen to Hamas under this agreement, and that, frankly, is the key to any long-term peace. If Hamas remains in control of Gaza, all the death on both sides will be essentially for naught. Hamas, as an extension of a Iran is focused on the destruction of Israel. If left in control, they will continue on this path, and there will be no lasting peace. And for the citizens of Gaza, under the continued rule of Hamas,

there will be no opportunity for meaningful good governance, economic development, or, frankly, a brighter future. Look over the past almost 20 years as the ruling force in Gaza, Hamas has shown where its interests lie, and those are not with the betterment of the people of Gaza. The future of the Palestinian people and the security and future of Israel depend on removing Hamas from any position of authority or control. Coming up in tonight's back of the brief, we explore Ukraine's strategic pivot in its ongoing conflict with Russia, and with a series of targeted strikes, Ukraine is taking aim at Russia's oil production capabilities. And also, we'll take a quick look at the changing political

landscape in the U.S. I'll be right back. In today's back of the brief, as the winter grinds on in Ukraine, the nation is adopting a new tactic in its war against Russia, striking directly at Putin's critical infrastructure, particularly its oil refining industry. The latest attack came on Friday when a Ukrainian drone targeted an oil storage facility in Western Russia. Reports indicate that despite local air defenses jamming the drone, it did successfully deploy. its payload, engulfing four oil reservoirs with a collected volume of 1.6 million gallons in flames. The facility is located in Clancy, a city located about 40 miles from the Ukrainian border. Ukrainian authorities didn't officially acknowledge the attack, but did publicly celebrate the results.

Yeah, we don't know anything about it, but, uh, haza. Russian officials have acknowledged that drone assaults by Ukraine are becoming more frequent, including a recent episode where Moscow's air defense systems reportedly intercepted a drone aimed at the nation's capital. Additionally, the defense ministry announced the downing of another drone near the St. Petersburg Oil Terminal located a considerable distance from Ukraine's border. Russia has also attributed a deadly attack in the border region of Belgarod to Ukrainian forces, and that resulted in 22 fatalities. These attacks serve, multiple purposes. First of all, they create logistical hurdles for Russian military operations

within Ukraine, disrupting the supply of fuel necessary to maintain armored vehicles and equipment in the unforgiving winter. But there's also a psychological element to Ukraine's efforts to strike inside Russia. These attacks are meant to be a reminder to average Russian citizens that there's still a war going on, despite the Russian government and state-owned media attempt. to shield its citizens from the war's immediate effects. Again, the last thing Putin wants is a restless public, particularly in the key urban centers. The Russian leadership went through that experience

during their occupation of Afghanistan, when mothers in Moscow and elsewhere, upset over the war and its toll on families, became an important and vocal protest bloc. And finally, on the U.S. political scene, the Republican primary is now a two-person race, former President Trump versus South Carolina Governor and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis once seen as a formidable challenge to Trump announced yesterday

that he suspended his campaign. DeSantis acknowledged that he did not have a logical path through the general election, and he endorsed Trump just days before the New Hampshire primary. DeSantis had been polling last in New Hampshire. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief from money. Monday, 22 January. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirstTV.com. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.