The President's Daily Brief - January 23rd, 2026: Inside the White House Plan to Topple Cuba’s Communist Government & Sanctions Enforcement Escalates

Episode Date: January 23, 2026

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: First up—a new report offers an inside look at the White House’s efforts to engineer regime change in Cuba, as U.S. officials—emboldened by events in Venezuela—search for Cuban power brokers willing to cut a deal and bring an end to Communist rule. Later in the show—President Trump meets with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy in Davos, with Kyiv saying security guarantees are settled, but the most critical issue of all—territory—remains unresolved. Plus—the war against Russia’s shadow fleet is expanding, as France’s navy intercepts an oil tanker in the Mediterranean linked to Moscow’s covert sanctions-busting network. And in today’s Back of the Brief—a sobering case out of Iran, where a young soldier has been sentenced to death for refusing orders to fire on protesters during nationwide unrest. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief BRUNT Workwear: Get $10 Off at BRUNT with code PDB at https://www.bruntworkwear.com/PDB#Bruntpod CBDistillery: Visit https://CBDistillery.comand use promo code PDB for 25% off your entire order! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Second Half 2025. All rights reserved. It must provide a recent consumer mobile bill in the name of the person, and give me the deal, additional terms, conditions, and restrictions apply. It's Friday, the 23rd of January. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, a new report is giving us an inside look

at the White House's efforts to engineer regime change in Cuba, with U.S. officials emboldened by events in Venezuela and actively hunting for Cuban power brokers willing to cut a deal. Later in the show, President, and Trump meets with Ukrainian President Zelensky in Davos, with Kiev, saying security guarantees are settled. But the most critical issue of all, and that would be territory, well, that issue remains unresolved. Plus, the war against Russia's shadow fleet is expanding, as France's Navy, and yes, they do have one, and it's quite good, actually, intercepts an oil tanker in the Mediterranean

linked to Moscow's covert sanctions-busting network. And in today's back of the brief, we turn again to Iran, where a young Iranian soldier has been sentenced to death for refusing orders to fire on protesters during the nationwide anti-regime demonstrations. But first, today's PDB spotlight. A new report says the White House is actively seeking to overthrow Cuba's communist government, potentially by the end of the year. And look at that. What's old is new again. According to reporting from the Wall Street Journal, the Trump administration believes Cuba's regime is more fragile than at any point in the past seven decades. U.S. intelligence assessments describe an economy on the brink, chronic shortages of food and medicine, rolling blackouts, and a growing sense of desperation across the island. And maybe, perhaps most

critically, Havana has now lost its most important lifeline. That would be subsidized oil from Venezuela, following, of course, the U.S.-backed operation earlier this month that removed to President Nicholas Maduro from office. And administration officials see what happened in Caracas, not just as a one-off success, but as a blueprint for Cuba. According to officials familiar with the planning,

the strategy is not a traditional invasion or a Cold War-style coup. Instead, Washington is applying intense pressure on the regime while quietly searching for Cuban government insiders who might be willing to cut a deal once it becomes clear that the current system can

survive. President Trump himself has publicly amplified that message, warning Havana that there will be no more oil or money and urging Cuban leaders to make a deal before it's too late. Now, to understand why U.S. officials think this might work, you have to look back at how the Venezuelan operation unfolded. New reporting from the Guardian reveals that the Maduro capture was preceded by months of secret back-channel discussions with senior figures inside the Venezuelan regime. Most notably, Delci Rodriguez, the then-vice president and now the country's acting president. According to multiple sources, Rodriguez and her brother, the propaganda minister, quietly assured U.S. officials that they would cooperate once Maduro was gone.

These regime figures did not agree to overthrow Maduro themselves. Instead, they signaled that they would help manage the aftermath, keeping the state functioning, avoiding civil war, and preventing Venezuela from collapsing into chaos. That assurance helped persuade even hardliners inside the Trump administration that working with regime insiders was preferable to potentially unleashing a failed state on America's doorstep. The result was a targeted operation that removed the leader while leaving much of the system intact. Venezuela did not descend into mass violence.

Oil talks resumed. Deportation flights continued. Political prisoner negotiations began. From Washington's perspective, it was a transactional success. Now, reportedly, that same logic is being applied to Cuba. Administration officials believe the island's dependence on Venezuelan oil has left it uniquely vulnerable. Economists warn Cuba could run out of fuel within weeks, bringing transportation, electricity, and basic services to a halt. At the same time, Washington is targeting Cuba's overseas medical missions, its most important source of hard currency,

while signaling openness to humanitarian assistance through channels like the Catholic Church. The message to Havana is unmistakable. Pressure will increase, but an off-ramp does exist if the right people are willing to take it. This all sounds good in theory, but this is where the strategy runs into its biggest problem. Cuba is not Venezuela, and for that, I grant myself the PDB statement of the obvious award. The Cuban communist system has been entrenched for nearly 70 years. It's a single-party state with no legal political opposition, no competitive elections, and an omnipresent security apparatus designed explicitly to prevent elite defections.

Civil society is thin. Protest movements are quickly crushed. Human rights groups estimate more than 1,000 political prisoners are behind bars. Venezuela, by contrast, had an organized opposition. a history of elections, frequent mass protests, and competing power centers inside the regime. There were insiders who could plausibly imagine surviving a post-Moduro world. In Cuba, that calculus is far less obvious. Even former U.S. officials familiar with Havana warned that there may be no Cuban equivalent

to a Delci Rodriguez, no senior figure willing or able to step forward once pressure peaks. The Cuban regime has survived decades of U.S. embargoes and covert action and isolation. It's shown a remarkable ability to repress dissent while keeping its inner circle loyal. And that raises uncomfortable questions for Washington. What happens if no insiders make a deal? What does collapse look like on an island 90 miles from Florida? And how does the U.S. manage the humanitarian and migration consequences if the present leadership is removed, but stability doesn't follow.

For President Trump, toppling Cuba's communist government would be a defining achievement, finishing what John F. Kennedy failed to do and cementing a legacy across the hemisphere. The apparent thinking in the White House, after Maduro's removal, is that regime change doesn't have to mean regime collapse. They view Venezuela as a sort of proof of concept. but Cuba, well, Cuba may be the ultimate test of that concept. All right, coming up next, President Trump meets with Ukrainian President Zelensky in Davos, as the territorial question remains unresolved,

while France moves to intercept the Russian-linked oil tanker signaling an expanding crackdown on Moscow's shadow fleet. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, I've spent years working in difficult and challenging environment. right long hours certainly tough terrain and no room for gear that can't keep up and that's why I trust brunt workwear I'm talking about brunt it's spelled B-R-U-N-T just like you would imagine as an example brunt's marron boots are rugged they're waterproof and they're comfortable right out of the box and that's important because there's there's no need for a break-in period and brunt builds more

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is Hatterday. Pettaday. Bring it on. Welcome back to the BDB. Ukrainian President Zelensky arrived at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, seeking progress, and on at least one front, he got it.

During closed-door talks with President Trump on Thursday, the terms of U.S. security guarantees were reportedly finalized and are now ready to be signed, well, signed between the U.S. and Ukraine. Moscow is still noticeably absent from any meaningful ceasefire or peace talks.

But the impasse, as always, does remain the territorial dispute in eastern Ukraine. What stands out this time after a meeting between the two leaders is that this wasn't just another round of diplomatic pleasantries, apparently. There was, reportedly, actual follow-through. The security guarantees which Ukraine had been pushing for, and that Washington has been considering for months, are now complete, again, according to initial reporting. For Kiev, that is a meaningful shift. It locks an American commitment that goes beyond statements of support

and starts to put in place the structure for how Ukraine's security will be backed in any post-war environment. For now, though, the details of the guarantees remain private. But there was also movement on the economic front. Zelensky said a deal on post-war recovery is now close to being finalized, an important part of Ukraine's effort to push back against an earlier U.S. peace framework that officials in Kiev felt was far too favorable to Moscow. Now, I want to stress that the finer details of the reconstruction package are still being ironed out, but the message from Ukrainian officials was clear.

The pieces are coming together, even if they're not all locked in yet. Zelensky described Thursday's meeting on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum as constructive. One senior Ukrainian official went further, calling it, quote, one of the best meetings they've had. Trump echoed that tone telling reporters, that is meeting with Zelensky was good, but the effort to secure a ceasefire is an ongoing process. And when asked what message he had for Russian President Putin,

Trump kept it blunt, saying, quote, the war has to end. In the wake of Thursday's sit-down, the focus now shifts to what comes next. Zelensky described upcoming talks scheduled for today and Saturday in Abu Dhabi as a positive step. As they'll mark the first time,

negotiators from Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. will meet in a trilateral format since the latest U.S.-led peace talks began. From Washington's perspective, just getting all three sides into the same room, is, well, progress. Early Thursday, special envoy Steve Whitkoff reinforced that point, telling an audience in Davos that talks were moving forward after brief meetings with Ukrainian and Russian officials. Whitkoff said, quote, if both sides want to solve this, we're going to get it solved, end quote. Well, okay, not exactly a statement of rocket science, but there you go. Weikoff later traveled to Moscow Thursday night, alongside Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner,

for talks with Putin on a potential settlement. From there, the negotiators flew to Abu Dhabi. Still, all this movement doesn't change the reality that Russia remains the least flexible actor in the room. Moscow continues to demand that Ukraine relinquish part of the Eastern Denezk region, including territory that Russia doesn't currently occupy. So with Russia's position unchanged on territory, Zelensky turned his attention in Davos to a different audience, singling out Europe for their weak response to Moscow's ongoing aggression. In his address, he criticized European leaders for what he described as a misguided reluctance to use hard power against Russia, remarks that came shortly after his meeting with Trump. From Zelensky's point of view, Europe's caution has come at a massive cost.

While European leaders often frame themselves as carrying the burden of supporting Ukraine, as Washington recalibrates its role, Zelensky argued that the European Union's hesitation has undermined Europe's credibility. He said, quote, if Europe is not seen as a global force, if its actions do not scare bad actors, Europe will always be reacting, end quote. But before leaving Davos, Zelensky returned to the issue that still defines limits of any peace agreement, and that, of course, again, is territory. He said the dispute over eastern Ukraine remains the final unresolved question, and that the Abu Dhabi talks will focus on narrowing those gaps, saying, quote, we are in the last mile, the Russians have to be ready for compromises, end quote. Well, not to sound cynical, but Putin has yet to show any interest in compromise during,

during his four-year war on Ukraine. It's a fine diplomatic exercise. Don't get me wrong that the U.S. and Ukraine are agreeing to a variety of post-seas-fire agreements. But the only player that can pull the Russian soldiers off the battlefield is Putin. And to date, well, he doesn't seem to be looking for an off-ramp. Okay, shifting gears. France's Navy is stepping up pressure on Russia's shadow fleet,

intercepting an oil tanker on Thursday after British intelligence, identified the vessel as part of Moscow's effort to keep sanctioned oil flowing to bankroll its war on Ukraine. French maritime officials say the tanker named the Grinch, seriously, a shadow fleet tanker named the Grinch, immediately raised suspicions due to its departure origin. The intelligence revealed that the vessel departed from Murmansk in northwestern Russia and was believed to be operating under false flag, which of course is a familiar tactic for vessels tied to the shadow fleet. French naval forces moved in Thursday and escorted the ship to a harbor where it could be inspected more closely.

Now, as PDB listeners know, oil exports remain the backbone of Russia's wartime economy. Even under crippling sanctions, the Kremlin has found ways to keep oil moving, using that revenue to fund operations in Ukraine while shielding the domestic economy from further inflation and currency instability. Basically, as long as those shipments get through, Moscow stays afloat. And this is where the shadow fleet comes in. As we've discussed here on the PDB, Russia relies on a sprawling network of aging tankers, now estimated at more than 400 by some accounts, all owned by opaque companies, registered at non-sanctioning countries, and flying foreign flags to obscure the source of the oil. It's a system the Kremlin designed to evade scrutiny and slip past enforcement, and has become a central target for Western governments. France and its European partners have make clear that they are no longer willing to look the other way. They've pledged to tighten enforcement and make it easier to legally board and inspect suspected vessels. Intercepting the Grinch fits squarely into that strategy, showing France intends to follow through on his

promise. French President Emmanuel Macron framed the operation as part of a broader effort to uphold international law and enforce sanctions that have real teeth. In a social media post addressing the interception, Macron said, France is determined to ensure sanctions are effectively enforced, adding that the shadow fleet plays a direct role in financing Russia's war of aggression. And French military officials told the Associated Press that the operation was conducted jointly with the U.K., which gathered and shared the intelligence that made the interception possible. Speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the operational details, the officials said

the tanker was operating under a false flag from the Comoros, that's an archipelago. go off of East Africa and was crewed by Indian nationals. The interception took place in the Western Mediterranean off the southern Spanish coast, a reminder that this isn't confined to distant shipping lanes, but rather playing out in some of Europe's most heavily trafficked waters. And this wasn't France's first move against the Shadow Fleet. Last September, you may remember that French naval forces boarded another tanker linked to the same sanctions evasion network, and that was off of Russia's Atlantic Coast. That vessel, you may remember, you may remember that French, departed from a Russian oil terminal near St. Petersburg and cycled through multiple names,

including the Pushpa and the Borokai, while sailing under the flag of Benin. Of course, Russian President Putin condemned that boarding as an act of piracy, accusing Macron of ordering the operation solely to distract from domestic political pressures in France. But French authorities didn't back down to Putin's rhetoric. Judicial officials say the tanker's captain is scheduled to stand trial in February over allegations that the crew refused to cooperate during inspection. Okay, coming up in today's back of the brief, Iran sentences one of its own soldiers to death for refusing to shoot Iranian protesters.

How the Mullas and the Revolutionary Card Corps continue to cling to power is one of life's great mysteries. Oh, wait, it's actually not a mystery. They happen to have the guns. We'll have the details. Hey, Mike Baker here. Well, you know this. It's 2026, right? We started the new year already. And I suppose, like a lot of folks, I did make some New Year's resolutions. And one of the most important ones I made was to get better sleep every night, right? You know, this sleep is basically the foundation for the rest of your day, right? With a good night's rest, well, you have more energy, you handle stress better, you think more clearly, come on, what's not the like? And to help make it a reality, well, I turn to CBD gummies and products from CB distillery. They're sleep gummies, as an example, have a combination of CBD and melatonin, and they really do the trick.

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Tap the banner or visit usaa.com slash auto discounts. Restrictions apply. Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money, whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto's trillion-dollar swings. There's a money side to every story. Get the money side of the story. Subscribe now at Bloomberg.com. In today's back of the brief, an Iranian soldier has been sentenced to death after refusing orders to fire on protesters, offering a rare window into how the regime is enforcing obedience inside its own ranks.

The young soldier, identified as Javid Khalis, by the Iran Human Rights Society, was first arrested after declining to participate in the killing of his federal countrymen during the ongoing nationwide protests, calling for an end to Iran's regime. Witnesses described the soldiers' actions as a rare show of humanity in an otherwise chaotic and violent climate. But sources say he was quickly detained by the Iranian military, transferred to a prison in Isfahan, and sentenced following what human rights groups describe as an accelerated opaque judicial process. No surprises here, but Iranian authorities have not publicly detailed the charges or provided evidence from the trial. But activists say the case fits a broader judicial pattern unfolding behind. the curtain. One marked by rapid sentencing, limited access to legal counsel, and harsh penalties designed to send a message, not just to protesters, but to soldiers and police still being

ordered into the streets. That message is becoming increasingly explicit. As we've been tracking on the PDB, the regime is leaning heavily on force to crush dissent, deploying units linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, and according to opposition-linked sources, bringing in foreign proxy fighters to reinforce security forces in major cities. Officials with the Iran Human Rights Society warned of a new wave of, quote, judicial massacre, saying the young soldier's death sentence, quote, comes at a time when judiciary officials have openly spoken of summary trials and the swift execution of death sentences against those arrested in the protests, end quote.

Now, leaders in Iran aren't being shy about their tactics regarding the young soldier. a spokesperson for the judiciary in Iran put out a broad statement, emphasizing that cases involving dissidents must be resolved as quickly as possible, according to a report from Fox News. Human rights groups warn this is simply a more formal way of signaling plans for rapid executions with little transparency or access to due process. Since this latest wave of protests began in late December, human rights groups estimate more than 20,000 people have been detained, with arrests. accelerating as the regime tightens control and cuts off information. Iran remains under a near-total

internet blackout, complicating verification, but not preventing reports of severe abuse, including torture and death and custody, from making their way out to the West. The Human Rights Activist News Agency now reports more than 4,500 confirmed deaths, with thousands more still under investigation, and U.S. officials warn, the true toll could be significantly higher. perhaps as high as 18 to 20,000. Against that backdrop, the young soldier's refusal carries particular weight. It signals that cracks may be appearing within the machinery of repression that the regime relies on. And that's likely why the regime's response to the soldier is so severe. By sentencing a soldier to death for refusing to fire on civilians, Tehran is drawing a hard line,

making clear that disobedience will be treated as a capital offense. As an aside, it's going on two weeks now, since the White House mentioned that help is on its way. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Friday the 23rd of January. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And as you probably noticed this morning, well, you got up and you said to yourself, it's Friday. Ah, well, Friday, of course, is the happiest day of the week for many folks, and not because it's the end of the work week, but because it's the end of the work week, but because every Friday evening, we launch another episode of our extended weekend show,

the PDB Situation Report, and that, for millions of faithful PDB listeners, is cause for celebration. You can catch it at 10 p.m. every Friday evening at the first TV, as well as on our YouTube channel, just go to YouTube and search for at President's Daily Brief, and, of course, podcast platforms all over podcast land. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool. Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel

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