The President's Daily Brief - January 26th, 2024: Iraq Exit, Iranian Terror Alert, & Gaza Genocide Decision

Episode Date: January 26, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: We dive into the pivotal talks between Washington and Baghdad about the potential final withdrawal of US forces from Iraq. We cover the aftermath of the devastating twin bombing in Iran, which claimed 80 lives, and reveal how the US had forewarned Iran. We discuss CIA Chief William Burns’ mission to the Middle East, aiming to forge a ceasefire and hostage release agreement between Hamas and Israel. In today’s Back of the Brief, the International Court of Justice's upcoming decision on allegations against Israel of genocide in Gaza, detailing what outcomes might emerge from the court. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This podcast is sponsored by Blackout Coffee. Get your morning started right with a tasty cup of American-made Blackout Coffee, family-owned, premium coffee, fresh-roasted, and shipped out within 48 hours of roasting. Go to blackout coffee.com, promo code PDB for 20% off your first purchase. It's Friday, 26th January. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed.

First up, after months of attacks on U.S. troops and facilities in Iraq, Washington and Baghdad are preparing for talks that could see a final withdrawal of U.S. forces from that country. We'll examine those developments and analyze their implications for the region. Later in the program, we'll bring you the latest on the twin bombing in Iran that killed 80 people earlier this month. Newly released intelligence indicates that the U.S. warned Iran about the impending attack. Plus, CIA Director William Burns is heading to the Middle East to negotiate a deal between Hamas and Israel. The agreement aims for the release of all remaining hostages and an extended

pause of hostilities. Finally, in today's back of the brief, the International Court of Justice is getting ready to announce its decision related to South Africa's charge that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. I'll explain what you should expect from the International Court. But first up, the PDB spotlight. As we've been discussing here on the PDB, the conflict between Hamas and Israel has had far-reaching consequences, one of which is the heightened risk to U.S. troops stationed in the Middle East. These forces, particularly those in Iraq, have found themselves increasingly targeted by Iranian-backed militias. The situation has resulted in almost daily rocket and drone attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq

and neighboring Syria. Since mid-October, there have been around 150 attacks attributed to these militias. In a stark escalation just this week, Iraqi militias launched 17 ballistic missiles and rockets at the Al-Assad Air Base housing U.S. forces. The United States responded with a retaliatory airstrike that was promptly condemned by Iraqi officials. Well, it looks like the Iraqi government is now considering an end to the U.S. presence and cooperation. Recent reports indicate that the United States in Iraq have agreed to commence discussions concerning the U.S.-led military coalition's future in Iraq. The goal is to establish a phased withdrawal schedule and ultimately bring an end to the coalition's

presence in the country. In a statement on Thursday, Iraq's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that Baghdad aims to, quote, formulate a specific and clear timetable that specifies the duration of the presence of international coalition advisors in Iraq and to initiate the gradual and deliberate reduction of its advisors on Iraqi soil. The U.S. is indicating that they're on board with the concept. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has acknowledged the upcoming discussions and said its focus will be on transitioning to what he's calling a, quote, sustainable, bilateral security partnership between the two nations. Well, that would be nice because right now,

with U.S. forces under regular attack from Iran sponsored militias based inside Iraq, the partnership is neither sustainable nor secure. While the U.S. military footprint in Iraq is not as large as it once was, obviously, with most combat forces having departed in 2011, a contingent returned in 2014 to assist in the defeat of ISIS. Currently, around 2,500 American troops are stationed in Iraq, mainly around Baghdad. These troops, albeit in smaller numbers, have played a critical role. They support the Iraqi government encountering terrorism with a particular focus on the persistent threat of ISIS, which continues to operate through insurgency tactics and sleeper cells despite losing significant territory.

Additionally, the presence of U.S. troops serves a diplomatic function, signaling America's commitment to Iraq's stability, and this is crucial, not least as part of the strategy to counter Iranian influence, which is particularly pronounced within Iraq's Shiite majority. As discussions about troop withdrawal commence, the question is, will this mark the end of the U.S. military presence in Iraq? Now, while the number of U.S. and coalition troops in Iraq currently may seem insignificant, certainly compared to the height of the West support and involvement in country, their presence has had an impact on the ability of ISIS to reconstitute itself, and it does play a role in somewhat

limiting Iran's influence in Iraq. The Sudanese government has had to incorporate Iran-sponsored militias into the country's security apparatus and government. The Prime Minister has in the past publicly criticized the presence of coalition forces, while at the same time, reportedly, assuring the U.S. privately that he supports their continued presence and involvement in Iraq. It appears that now, though, Sudan is of one mind, that it's time for the forces to go. Look, you don't have to be Inspector Glouso to look at the current situation and come to the conclusion that the Iranian regime is working behind the scenes to remove U.S. and coalition forces from Iraq. Creating turmoil inside the country by having their proxy militias consistently launch

attacks on the U.S. and coalition troops is by design, knowing that at some point the U.S. would need to respond, which would create further tension and instability leading to increasing public and governmental dissatisfaction with the troops' presence. Iran's goal here is to remove the U.S. and increase their own influence and leverage within Iraq. All right. After After the break, new reports indicate that the U.S. provided a secret warning to Iran about the terror attack earlier this month. That resulted in over 80 deaths from suicide bombings in the southeastern city of Kermon in Iran. Then later, America's top spy, William Burns, is headed to the Middle East in the hopes of brokering a major deal between Hamas and Israel. Those

stories are coming up next. Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money. Because behind every headline is a bottom line. Whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto's trillion dollar swings, there's a money side to every story. And when you see the money side, you understand what others miss. Get the money side of the story. Subscribe now at Bloomberg.com. Welcome back. We're learning that the U.S. attempted to warn leaders in Tehran about a potential threat from the Islamic State ahead of an ISIS-suistic

bombing that killed over 80 Iranians earlier this month. Our friends at the Wall Street Journal exclusively reported on Thursday that unidentified U.S. intelligence officials backchanneled with Iran ahead of the deadly bombings warning of an impending attack planned by ISIS militants. Specifically, the U.S. had acquired intelligence that the ISIS affiliate in Afghanistan, ISIS K, was behind the plot. American officials said their warning included specific information about the location and rough timing of the attack, information that Iranian leaders could have potentially used to prevent the tragic bombings. A U.S. intelligence official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told the Wall Street Journal, quote, prior to the ISIS terrorist attack on

January 3rd, in Kermon Iran, the U.S. government provided Iran with a private warning that there was a terrorist threat within Iranian borders. The U.S. government followed a longstanding duty to warn policy that has been implemented across administrations to warn governments against potential lethal threats. We provide these warnings in part because we do not want to see innocent lives lost in terror attacks, end quote. U.S. officials said that despite the heads up, Iranian officials did not acknowledge the warning. They expressed confusion as to why officials in Iran were unable to stop the attack, given the actionable intelligence the U.S. provided. Iranian officials have yet to comment on this revelation.

The action by U.S. intelligence officials is notable, given Iran's belligerent and provocative behavior in the region. Despite the fact that ISIS took responsibility for the suicide bombing, Iranian officials have continued to suggest that Israel and the U.S. played a role. At a funeral in Kermon for the victims of the attacks, a senior member of the IRGC bizarrely claimed that ISIS, quote, act as mercenaries on behalf of the U.S. and Israel. On January 15, Iran launched a ballistic missile strike on locations in Iraq and Syria in what they described as a dual revenge strike aimed at both Israel and ISIS.

Iran also continues to wreak havoc on the region through their proxy groups, be it the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, or Qatay-Hazbullah in Iraq. Despite escalating U.S. military strikes on these groups, there is little reason to believe that they will stop anytime soon. Now, if the reporting is accurate and the U.S. did provide actionable intelligence to the Iranian regime that included location and general timing of the impending attacks, the regime's decision to ignore their assistance essentially signed the death certificates for the dozens of Iranians killed in the blasts. It's possible that the regime and IRGC ignored the intelligence because it was coming from

the great Satan or believed it to be some type of disinformation campaign. Regardless, it shows an amazing lack of concern for their own citizens. All right, I want to shift our focus to the Israel-Hamas conflict and the latest attempts to broker a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas that would free the remaining hostages held by the militants. In the coming days, President Biden will reportedly send CIA director William Burns to join the negotiations and help the two sides reach an agreement. As we discussed recently on the PDB, the Israeli proposal would see the release of approximately

130 hostages currently held in Gaza in exchange for a ceasefire lasting up to two months. If successfully negotiated, the ceasefire would be the longest pause in fighting in Gaza since the deadly 7 October attacks by Hamas on Israel. CIA Director Burns will reportedly travel to Europe to negotiate with David Barnier, the director of the Mossad, Abbas Kamal, the director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate, and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Laden. and Abdul Rahman Altani, according to a report from the Washington Post. The initial proposal revealed on Monday was mediated by Qatar and Egypt. The two countries have served as the primary go-between for Israel and Hamas to conduct negotiations since the conflict broke out. Israel's proposal

calls for the phased release of the more than 130 hostages still held by Hamas in exchange were a ceasefire lasting up to 60 days. In exchange, Israel would release a number of Palestinian prisoners. The initial phase of the hostage release would prioritize women, men over 60, and those in critical condition or with severe health problems. Subsequent phases would see the release of hostages not affiliated with the Israeli defense forces, followed by Israeli soldiers and the bodies of hostages who died in captivity. The Israeli proposal also calls for senior men who were members of Hamas to leave Gaza. However, officials privy to the negotiations say Hamas will never agree to such a request. According to these officials, Hamas is reportedly also wary of agreeing

a 60-day pause in fighting and is instead seeking a permanent ceasefire. Netanyahu has maintained his hardline stance against a permanent end of the fighting, saying Israel will continue their operations in Gaza until the threat of Hamas is eradicated. Samir Farag, a former Egyptian general and defense official, told the Washington Post that both parties have shown a keen interest in negotiating a ceasefire and said the fact that Burns would meet with its intelligence counterparts from Egypt and Qatar shows that the discussions have advanced to the serious phase of negotiations. Farag said, quote, everybody wants peace, the Palestinians, Hamas, and the Israelis. But everybody wants to win in the negotiations. We are trying to reach a middle ground, end quote. Okay, not to be a stickler for facts, but if Hamas wanted peace, they wouldn't have started this war by slaughtering over a thousand Israelis and taking 250 hostages on 7 October. And if Hamas wanted peace, they wouldn't have stolen and misappropriated billions of four and eight dollars over almost two decades, building a vast network of tunnels, stockpiling weapons, and working with Iran to pursue their stated goal of destroying Israel.

I don't know. Maybe I'm just being churlish. All right. The International Court of Justice is expected to hand down its decision related to South Africa's charge that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza today. I'll explain what you should and shouldn't expect from today's ruling in today's back of the brief. I'll be right back. In today's back of the brief, the International Court of Justice, the ICJ, is expected to announce its decision regarding provisional measures against Israel, today. This interim verdict comes in response to South Africa's allegations that Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinian people in Gaza. As of right now, the Palestinian death toll in Israel's offensive in Gaza has surpassed 26,000. That's according to the Hamasran Ministry of Health. According to

reports, the death toll in Gaza has fallen by about half over the past month. Now, as for the case itself, legal experts are highlighting one particular element, and that's intent. For the deaths of civilians to be classified as genocide, they must be perpetrated, quote, with intent to destroy the group in question. Assuming that judges are not influenced by the internal politics of their home countries, and what's the likelihood of that happening, this element of intent will be central to their deliberations. With that in mind, Israel recently declassified over 30 secret orders from its government and military leaders in a last-minute effort to avert a ruling against them. These documents are intended to counter the accusations of genocide, illustrating efforts by Israel

to minimize civilian casualties in Gaza. Among these declassified items are records of cabinet discussions led by Prime Minister Netanyahu. In late October, for example, he directed the delivery of aid, fuel and water to Gaza, and proposed the involvement of external actors to establish field hospitals for Gazans. Additionally, the possibility of positioning a hospital ship off Gaza's coast was explored. Now, were the disclosures enough to sway the ICJ? Well, we should know that sometime today. So what can we expect from the ruling? Well, as we've mentioned here before on the BDB, the court will not address the central issue of whether Israel's actions constitute genocide. Instead, the focus will be on whether the ICJ will impose emergency or provisional measures in Gaza. The more extensive genocide case

will continue to be deliberated, and that's a process that could extend three to four to five years. The emergency measures under consideration could include various demands on Israel. While South Africa has urged the court to call for a ceasefire, the ICJ may opt for more moderate measures, such as facilitating greater aid access to Gaza. And as always, it's a very important. It's a It's worth noting that the ICJ has no mechanism with which to enforce its rulings. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Friday, 26th January. Be sure to tune in to today's afternoon bulletin where I'll bring the latest on the ongoing standoff between the state of Texas and U.S. federal authorities.

If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the BDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.