The President's Daily Brief - January 28th, 2025: Is Russia’s Economy Cracking? & Hamas Hostage Tragedy

Episode Date: January 28, 2025

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: A fresh blow for President Vladimir Putin as the European Union extends sanctions against Russia, raising questions about cracks in the nation’s economy. Tragic news from the Middle East as Hamas announces the deaths of 8 hostages set for release under the ongoing ceasefire agreement. Reports indicate President Donald Trump is exploring an asylum deal with El Salvador that could allow the U.S. to deport migrants there—even if they’re not Salvadoran. And in today’s Back of the Brief: The President signs an Executive Order reinstating service members discharged for refusing the COVID-19 vaccine, fulfilling a key campaign promise. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ryan Reynolds here for MintMobil. I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same premium wireless for $15 a month plan that I've been enjoying. It's not just for celebrities, so do like I did and have one of your assistants assistants to switch you to MintMobile today. I'm told it's super easy to do at mintmobile.com slash switch. Up front payment of $45 for three-month plan equivalent to $15 per month required. Intro rate first three months only, then full price plan options available,

taxes and fees extra, default terms at Mintmobile.com. It's Tuesday, 28 January. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. Today, we're starting in Moscow and some bad news for President Vladimir Putin as the European Union extends its sanctions against Russia, raising fresh questions about the cracks that appear to be forming in Russia's economy. Later in the show, we'll return to the Middle East, where Hamas has announced that eight of the remaining 26 hostages set to be released as part of the ongoing ceasefire are dead. Plus, President Trump is reportedly considering an asylum deal with El Salvador, allowing the U.S. to deport migrants there, even if they're not Salvadorans. And finally, in today's back of the brief, the president fulfills a campaign promise with a new executive order,

reinstating service members discharged for resched for a campaign promise. refusing the COVID-19 vaccine. But first, today's BDB spotlight. European leaders are putting the financial screws to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, who is reportedly growing increasingly concerned over the fragile state of Russia's wartime economy. The European Union voted Monday to renew its wide-ranging sanctions on Russia over the war in Ukraine, keeping existing sector-based bans on trade with Moscow intact, while also ensuring that more than $200 billion worth of seized Kremlin assets remain frozen. While most of the EU's 27 member countries were on board with the sanctions renewal, there were concerns that they could lapse before the January 31st renewal deadline

over protests by Hungary, according to a report from Reuters. As a reminder, under EU regulations, all 27 member countries must unanimously vote to renew these restrictions every six months. But Hungarian leaders have been seeking assurances regarding their energy security ever since the war in Ukraine broke out, and by broke out, I mean when Vladimir Putin's military invaded, and were blocking the latest sanctions renewal talks in an attempt to leverage energy concessions from Ukraine. Specifically, Hungary wanted EU leadership to persuade Ukraine to resume gas transits from Russia to Europe, claiming that EU sanctions on Russia

had caused some $20 billion in financial damage to the Hungarian economy. Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban, who, by the way, maintains a close relationship with Putin, had also requested that the EU consult with the Trump administration on the sanctions before moving forward, arguing it was time for a sanctions-free relationship between Europe and Russia.

But President Trump, who has himself threatened the Putin regime with fresh sanctions over the war in Ukraine, did not back the Hungarian position, leaving Orban with little room to maneuver. Still, EU leadership offered an olive branch to Hungary, issuing a statement on Monday, pledging to continue conversations on moving oil through Ukraine. The statement, which was reviewed by Reuters, said the EU's executive body was ready to involve Hungary and Slovakia in the process. and came after Ukrainian President Zelensky said that he was willing to sign a contract to move gas from Azerbaijan to Europe

using Ukraine's existing pipeline infrastructure. The official pledge from the EU was enough to move the needle with Hungary, allowing the sanctions renewal to proceed. Kajakales, the EU's foreign policy chief, underscored the importance of maintaining maximum economic pressure on Russia stating, quote, this will continue to deprive Moscow of revenues to finance its war.

Russia needs to pay for the damage that they are causing, end quote. Indeed, it's hard to overstate the economic decline that the war in Ukraine has caused in Russia. The Putin regime is currently grappling with persistently high inflation, labor shortages, and interest rates that are sitting at an historic high of 21%. Their manufacturing and services sectors are also struggling to stay afloat, as costs skyrocket and consumer demand softens due to the soaring inflation, which was measured, frankly, at 9.5% last year. The sanctions from Europe and the U.S. have further strained Moscow's finances, isolating them from critical foreign markets. Russian exports to the U.S., for example,

dropped from $29.6 billion in 2021 to just $2.9 billion in 2024. Moscow is now hemorrhaging cash, just to keep their war effort going, spending a record 16.3 trillion rubles, or around $148 billion, on the war effort in 2024. Now, that's a staggering figure, representing more than 8% of Russia's GDP and 41% of its total budget. According to Kremlin's sources that spoke to Reuters, these metrics have Putin feeling anxious about the Russian economy's long-term prospects. And angered Putin, reportedly scolded senior economic officials and Russian business leaders during a meeting in December over declines in private investment. Well, he certainly wouldn't want to have to blame his own wartime adventurism, but business leaders themselves are growing frustrated with the Putin regime

over high interest rates. According to the sources, there is now a growing band of Russian elites who are pushing for Putin to seek and negotiate its settlement to the war to alleviate their economic troubles. Now, we should note that the Kremlin has tried to paint a rosy picture of the Russian economy, of course they have, citing robust exports of oil, gas, and minerals despite Western sanctions, as well as increases in their budget revenues as compared to 2023. But international economists have questioned the Kremlin's numbers, saying the real story, including true GDP growth, and inflation rates is likely being suppressed by the Kremlin's propaganda machine, to support their narrative that the Russian economy is stable. Well, I for one, am shocked that

Putin might be fudging the numbers. He seems like, I don't know, such a transparent, honest sort of despot. Now, what this means for potential peace negotiations is, of course, anyone's guess, but the financial walls do appear to be closing in on Putin. President Trump has said arrangements are currently underway to set up a meeting with Putin, though a timetable remains unclear. All right. Coming up after the break, Hamas announces the tragic deaths of eight hostages set to be released. And President Trump eyes an asylum deal with El Salvador that could send non-Salvador and migrants there. I'll be right back. Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money. Because behind every headline is a bottom line. Whether it's the funds fueling AI,

or crypto's trillion dollar swings, there's a money side to every story. And when you see the money side, you understand what others miss. Get the money side of the story. Subscribe now at Bloomberg.com. Welcome back to the PDB. Hamas has for the first time confirmed that eight of the 26 Israeli hostages set for release under the first phase of the ongoing ceasefire agreement, well, are deceased. According to a spokesperson for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Hamas's disclosure aligns with Israeli intelligence assessments. Under the first phase of the ceasefire, scheduled to conclude in early March, Hamas is to release 33 Israeli hostages, while Israel will free nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. Subsequent ceasefire negotiations are

expected to address the release of remaining hostages and establish broader conditions, for a lasting peace contingent on the withdrawal, of course, of IDEF forces from Gaza. As we've been tracking on the PDB, the truce remains tenuous and has already been tested. Over the weekend, Israel postponed the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza, accusing Hamas of violating the agreement by withholding the release of a high-priority female civilian hostage. Mediation efforts, led by Qatar, resolve that standoff, resulting in the release of the woman and two other hostages by Friday, with three additional captives freed on Saturday.

As of now, thousands of displaced Palestinians are returning to northern Gaza via the Nezorim corridor. However, among those held still captive is Kaffir Bebas, a two-year-old, kidnapped just shy of turning nine months old during Hamas' 7 October 23 attacks. His case has captured international attention, while all other child hostages were released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners during a one-week ceasefire in November 2023, the Biba's family never emerged from Gaza. Hamas said in a statement that the toddler, along with his mother and five-year-old brother,

perished in an Israeli air strike. Despite the report from Hamas, Israelis hold out hope for the family's safe return. As the ceasefire unfolds, another contentious issue emerged. President Trump's proposal to relocate Gaza's displaced population and estimated one and a half million people to Egypt and Jordan. As we covered on Monday's PDB, Trump described the plan as a potential temporary or long-term solution to address Gaza's humanitarian crisis, stating, quote, we just clean out that whole thing, end quote. Now, Trump claims he's pressed both Jordan's king and Egypt's president to accommodate large numbers of Palestinian refugees, a move that, he frames as essential given over 90% of decimation to Gaza's housing infrastructure. However, Trump's plan faces resistance, well, as you might expect.

Egypt and Jordan worried that Israel would never allow the Palestinians to return to Gaza if they're made to leave. Currently, Jordan houses more than 2 million Palestinian refugees. Meanwhile, Egypt remains skeptical about the security implications of transferring Palestinians to the Sinai Peninsula, which borders Gaza, as a risk of expanding the conflict. Despite the resistance, Trump, however, has leverage over Jordan. The debt-strapped U.S. ally relies heavily on American foreign aid. Jordan received over $1.6 billion in 2023, much of it for security forces and budget support. As we recently reported on the PDB, the State Department froze all foreign aid worldwide, leaving just military assistance to Israel and Egypt untouched.

This action could potentially be bargaining leverage to pressure Jordan into compliance to accept Palestinian refugees in return for U.S. aid. Trump's proposal has also drawn significant international and domestic backlash. Germany, along with other EU nations, rejected the idea, asserting that Gaza's population, quote, must not be expelled. European Arab leaders emphasized the enduring, stability in Gaza stems from the lack of viable political resolution. Well, there's a statement of the obvious. Even Trump's allies appear divided. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham dismissed the

relocation plan as impractical, urging continued dialogue with Middle Eastern leaders to identify feasible alternatives. As the ceasefire progresses and debates over Gaza's future intensify, the stakes for regional stability, well, remain high. Both the success of the hostage exchanges and the broader resolution of Gaza's political crisis are pivotal to securing a durable resolution to the decades-long conflict, if one actually exists. Okay, turning to U.S. domestic issues, the Trump administration is reportedly negotiating a safe third-country agreement with the government of El Salvador. The agreement would reroute asylum seekers to the Central American nation as part of President Trump's promised crackdown on illegal

immigration. According to sources, familiar with the discussions, the policy would enable U.S. immigration officials to deport migrants, regardless of their country of origin, to El Salvador, where they would be required to seek asylum instead of in the United States. This marks a revival of Trump's earlier effort to broker a similar deal during his first term with Guatemala, an initiative that ultimately collapsed and was rescinded under then-President Biden. Now, this research plan underscores Trump's determined stance on restricting immigration and fortifying borders security through aggressive measures. Central to the success of this initiative is the cooperation of the Salvadoran president, Naib Bucale, a leader whose hardline anti-gang measures, including mass

incarceration campaigns targeting criminal groups like MS-13, earned him both widespread acclaim and scrutiny. The sources confirmed Trump and Buckele discussed bolstering cooperating. on immigration enforcement and tackling transnational criminal networks during a recent phone call. Among their focal points was Venezuela's Trenzroagua gang or the TDA. The gang captured national headlines last year, becoming notorious for its extortion, smuggling, and violence. The group has been a growing concern for the Trump administration, which has sought to designate TDA as a terrorist organization.

As we previously reported on the PDB, Trump's directive, To begin the designation process came just hours after his inauguration, signaling his intent to escalate efforts to dismantle the gang's U.S. web of operations. Secretary of State Marker Rubio, who has pledged to prioritize curbing mass migration, is slated to visit El Salvador in early February as part of a broader Latin American tour aimed at solidifying the agreement and other immigration initiatives. Rubio's visit, set to begin later this week, underscores the importance of Buckelé's government as a strategic ally in Trump's immigration agenda.

These efforts are part of a larger Trump administration strategy to tighten U.S. borders through a combination of physical and policy barriers. The administration has already reinstated the, quote, remain-in-mexico policy, which requires asylum claimants to remain outside the U.S. while their cases are reviewed, expanded border agents' authority to conduct rapid deportations, and deployed military planes to facilitate migraine removals. Notably, active duty troops have been sent to construct additional barriers along the border, and Trump's emergency declaration has unlocked substantial resources to bolster enforcement capabilities.

If implemented, the safe third-country agreement would add another layer to Trump's immigration overhaul, effectively externalizing asylum responsibilities to partner nations. Yet the plan is not without hurdles, including potential legal challenges and diplomatic resistance. Whether this initiative will actually withstand scrutiny at home and abroad, well, that remains uncertain. But for now, the Trump administration appears to be standing firm in its push to reshape the U.S. immigration landscape. All right, coming up in the back of the brief, the president signs an executive order to reinstate service members discharged for a refute. using the COVID-19 vaccine, fulfilling a key campaign promise. I'll be right back.

Looking for a protein shake that tastes as good as it performs? Meet Rockin' Protein' Max. Packed with 50 grams of fuel, it'll help you keep up when your day won't slow down. And because it's always creamy and never chalky, every sip tastes great. Even better, it's lactose-free and has zero added sugar. It's not every day you find a protein shake you actually want to finish. Catch Rock and Protein in the dairy cooler at a store near you. Rock and Protein and Shamrock Farms are registered trademarks of Shamrock Foods Company.

Choice hotels get you more of what you value. Here's a little tune to help you remember. Same drive, different day. Don't you wish you were getting away? Pack your bags and come on through. Texas, Ohio, Alaska, we're up there too. Comfort Inn. It's calling your name.

Save on the stay. Oh. And free waffles are yours to do. claim, well, I hope you like my little song, book direct at Soyshillotails.com. In today's back of the brief, we've got some good news for American service members who were given the boot from the military for refusing to take the COVID-19 vaccine. Under an executive order signed by President Trump on Monday, all American troops dismissed by the Pentagon over the vaccine will be immediately reinstated with full back pay and benefits. The order also requires that those impacted by the vaccine mandate are restored to their prior rank. That's according to a report from Fox News.

The action makes good on a key campaign promise from Trump, who had long vowed to rehire the axed service members and offer them an apology on behalf of the government, arguing that they had been, quote, unjustly expelled. Defense Secretary, the newly confirmed Defense Secretary Pete Hagseth, made the same pledge during his recent confirmation. hearing, saying that he stood by Trump's promise. For context, the U.S. Armed Forces instituted a vaccine mandate for all military personnel in August of 2021 under the orders of then-President Joe Biden. While the vast majority of active duty service members received the vaccine, some 8,400 troops were forced out of the military for refusing to take the shot. The mandate was dropped in January 2003, 23, but those who previously refused were not reinstated. Instead, the Biden administration told those impacted by the mandate to reapply for service. Oh, that's nice. Though only 43 of the more

than 8,000 affected troops elected to return to service under President Biden's leadership. The issue turned into a major headache for the Biden administration and became a rallying point for Republicans fed up with government overreach linked to the pandemic. Last year, More than 200 active and retired service members signed an open letter, demanding that the Biden administration hold U.S. military leaders accountable for the vaccine mandate, arguing that it caused irreparable harm to service members and their families. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Tuesday, 28 January. Now, if you'd like to listen to the show ad-free, well, that's a simple thing to do. just become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com.

I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool.