The President's Daily Brief - January 28th, 2026: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ordered Protesters Shot & ISIS Rising Again

Episode Date: January 28, 2026

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: New reporting reveals Iran’s supreme leader personally ordered security forces to shoot protesters on sight. But the most revealing detail may not be the order itself—it’s that the information is now leaking from inside the regime, offering a rare glimpse into internal strain at the highest levels of power. Later in the show—Iraq’s intelligence chief warns that ISIS is quietly rebuilding its ranks, with militants regrouping across the border in Syria and positioning themselves to exploit regional instability. Plus—a U.S. official says any effort to disarm Hamas in Gaza would likely include some form of amnesty, as the next phase of the ceasefire agreement begins to take shape. And in today’s Back of the Brief—Washington may be headed for another partial government shutdown, with lawmakers deadlocked and no clear off-ramp in sight amid clashes over immigration enforcement. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Cardiff: Get fast business funding without bank delays—apply in minutes with Cardiff and access up to $500,000 in same‑day funding at https://Cardiff.co/PDB  Nobl Travel: Protect your gear and travel smarter—NOBL’s zipper-free carry-on is up to 58% off at https://NOBLTravel.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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turn your big business idea into... Sign up for your $1 per month trial at Shopify.com slash special offer. It's Wednesday, the 28th of January. We are almost finished with the first month of 2026. Well, how about that? Welcome to the president's daily brief. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. And yes, still on the road. All right, let's get briefed. First up, new reporting reveals Iran's supreme leader personally ordered security forces to shoot protesters on site. But the most revealing part of this story may not be that order itself. I'll have the details. Later in the show, Iraq's spy chief is warning that ISIS is quietly rebuilding its ranks, with militants regrouping across the border in Syria and exploiting regional instability. Plus, a U.S. official says any disarmament of Hamas in Gaza would likely come with some form of amnesty as the next phase of the ceasefire presents, well, several difficult challenges. And in today's back of the brief, Washington may be headed for, get this, another partial

government shutdown, with no clear off-ramp in sight as lawmakers clash over immigration enforcement. Now, you'd think that politicians really would have one job, and that would be to keep the government open. It seems simple if both sides were willing to, I don't know, work together and compromise for the sake of the U.S. taxpayers, who, lest we forget, pay the politicians' salaries and benefits. But first, today's PDB spotlight. New reporting from the New York Times is revealed that the order to crack down on protesters with maximum force in Iran came from the very top, the Supreme Leader himself. But that may not be the most important part of the story. According to the reporting, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali-Khamini issued a direct order earlier

this month to crush nationwide protests by any means necessary. The directive was delivered through the Supreme National Security Council, that's the regime's top security body, and deployed security forces with orders to, quote, shoot to kill. kill and to show no mercy. Hmm. In the days that followed, the regime's security apparatus certainly complied with that order, and as we now know, the death toll surged. Now, on its own, that order is, of course, chilling, but it's neither surprising nor unprecedented. The Islamic Republic in the past has shown a willingness to use extreme violence when it feels threatened. But what makes the reporting from the New York Times

stand out is the sourcing of the information. These details, aren't coming from protesters or opposition figures based overseas or foreign intelligence agencies. The details are coming from Iranian officials who were briefed on the directive itself. In other words, people inside the regime close enough to power to know exactly what was ordered and they're now willing to talk about it. And these aren't the only leaks coming out of the government in Tehran. Two senior officials with Iran's Ministry of Health separately told Time magazine on Sunday that as many as 30,000 people may have been killed in the wake of the orders from Khmanin. The number of dead was so high, they reported that it overwhelmed the state's capacity

to dispose of the bodies. That conflicts with claims, of course, from Iran's National Security Council, which claimed a little over 3,000 deaths. Oh, you only shot and killed 3,000 of them, they say. These kinds of leaks are telling because authoritarian systems tend to survive on secrecy and internal discipline. When officials begin leaking the regime's most sensitive decisions, it often signals a degree of internal mistrust or belief that the leadership's grip may be weakening. And that internal anxiety appears to be shaping Tiferan's next moves. Irvon's leadership is quietly preparing for what it sees as a worst-case scenario. According to new reporting, the government has begun delegating emergency powers designed to keep essential goods flowing

and maintain basic state functions in the event of external strikes or wider conflict. That's a notable shift. Governments don't activate emergency measures, of course, lightly, especially ones tied to continuity planning. This does suggest that Tehran is taking the possibility of military escalation very seriously. It also seems to reflect a regime that feels boxed in, facing internal unrest on one side and external pressure on the other. taken together of the leaks and the emergency preparations

paint a picture of a leadership that feels increasingly vulnerable. As the Iranian regime deals with trouble at home, its allied militias, or its network of proxies across the region, are signaling readiness for action. Iranian-upact groups in Iraq and Yemen are openly threatening new attacks should Tehran come under attack from U.S. forces, which, of course, are now in position in the region. For Iran, proxy forces have always served as both a she,

and a sword, a way to deter adversaries, apply pressure, and project strength without triggering a direct confrontation. When internal stability is shaky, those external levers become, well, even more important. The messaging from these militias suggests Iran wants to remind Washington that any pressure campaign comes with regional consequences. But there's probably an important recent lesson here, and it's one that Tehran and its militias probably shouldn't ignore. During the 12-day-commoded, conflict with Israel, Iran's proxy network proved far less effective than advertised. Hezbollah and Iraqi militias stayed mostly on the sidelines. Strikes from Yemen's Khutis had limited impact and coordinated escalation across multiple fronts

never fully materialized. For a regime that has long relied on its proxies as a cost-effective deterrent, the episode exposed real limits to that strategy. All right, coming up after the break, Iraq's spy chief warns that ISIS is quietly rebuilding its ranks in Syria. And a U.S. officials signals Hamas disarmament in Gaza could come with some form of amnesty. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here with an important message for every small business out there. Now, small businesses face an uphill battle with big banks. You probably know that. We're getting a loan means endless paperwork and delays. For bank rates without the weight, here's what you do. You go to Cardiff. That's right. Go to Cardiff.com.com.

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Iraq's intelligence chief says Islamic State militants are finding room to regroup across the border, exploiting instability as U.S. forces draw down in Iraq. In a sit-down interview with the Washington Post, Iraq's intelligence chief Hamid al-Shatri described what he says is a familiar ISIS play book, using chaos in Syria to gain strength in numbers. He told the paper that the terror group's ranks may have jumped from about 2,000 fighters to as many as 10,000 over the past year. Now, I want to point out that estimate is higher than other assessments, including the

most recent UN Security Council report, which put the number of Islamic State members in Syria and Iraq combined at about 3,000 as of August. But whatever the exact figure, Shatri says the point isn't head counts. how ISIS operates. He argues that the group functions as a single organization across borders, and that even relatively small numbers can regroup, reposition, and strike if conditions allow. Shatri said in the interview, quote, this certainly does pose a danger to Iraq. And those conditions, at least from Baghdad's perspective, are starting to reappear next door. As we've been tracking here on the PDB, Syria is defined by instability.

renewed fighting, fragile political transition, and detention systems breaking under pressure. The exact conditions that ISIS looks to exploit. As recent fighting flared in northeastern Syria, government forces pushed to retake territory long control by Kurdish-led groups. As that pressure built, the system holding ISIS in check began to fray. You may remember our coverage on the PDB of detention facilities holding thousands of ISIS suspects that descended into chaos during a security lapse. allowing militants to slip back into the desert, even if many were later re-arrested.

For Iraqi officials watching this unfold, it's a nightmare scenario, the system loosening just enough for ISIS to rebuild networks and regain freedom of movement. Iraq responded quickly. Thousands of troops and militia fighters were rushed to reinforce its border with Syria, and that reaction wasn't an abstract fear. Iraq remembers what ISIS did when the group had space to move after declaring its self-styled caliphate over a decade ago. Shatri has become Baghdad's so-called point man on Syria, traveling to Damascus three times over the past year for talks with the Syrian president, Ahmed al-Shara. What he's hearing and seeing has sharpened his concerns.

He said some of the militants who joined ISIS over the past year were once aligned with Shara himself, back when he led an al-Qaeda-linked faction. As Shara traded his fatigues for a suit and tie, those fighters, Shatri says, grew disillusioned and peeled away. According to the Iraqi intelligence chief, ISIS absorbed defectors from those extremist factions and also recruited Arab tribesmen in Sunni areas that, until recently, were controlled by Kurdish forces. It's a reminder that the military landscape in Syria remains fractured.

All of this is unfolding as the U.S. continues to step back militarily from Iraq. This month, the last U.S. troops left the Ayan al-Assad air base in western Anbar province, ending a deployment focused on supporting Iraqi forces against ISIS. U.S. forces are now confined to a base in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region and are expected to wrap up that mission by the end of the year. Now, Shatri says it's too early to judge the full impact of the U.S. withdrawal, but acknowledged it could complicate and joined American-Iraqi operations, especially in remote terrain of the country, where Iraqi officials believe roughly 500 ISIS fighters have a foothold. That concern is shared beyond Shatri's office. An official with

Iraq's national security advisory said Syria's foreign minister warned Iraqi leaders last year that ISIS membership in Syria rose to around 5,000 reinforcing fears that the group is rebuilding amid instability next door. That threat is also complicating efforts to rein in armed groups at home. Malicious aligned with Iran argue that the renewed ISIS danger in Syria justifies maintaining their weapons. A spokesman for the Master of Martyrs Battalion, which is a Shia-Iraqi paramilitary group that backed Syria's Bashar al-Assad's regime, said the turmoil in Syria, mutes calls for militias to disarm, saying, quote, the need for the readiness of the resistance is more urgent than ever, end quote. Okay, shifting our focus to Gaza. Now that the remains

of the last Israeli hostage have been recovered, the conversation around Phase 2 of the ceasefire is beginning to take shape. And a U.S. official is now stating that Hamas's disarmament, a critical requirement for a successful ceasefire, may be paired with some form of amnesty. The comment came during a background briefing by an anonymous senior official in President Trump's administration. With all hostages living and deceased now accounted for, the most emotionally charged chapter of the war closed for Israel. And once that happened, the entire focus shifted. From Washington's perspective, this was always the pivot point. That's the context in which the Trump official's remarks landed. According to Reuters, the officials said that the administration believes Hamas is already

moving toward disarmament and made clear that compliance from the terror group will be enforced. Now, if Hamas is actually moving toward disarmament and the anonymous sources comments aren't just optimistic happy talk from the administration, it would mark an enormously significant development in the effort to create a lasting peace for Gaza and Israel. A reporter from Al Jazeera, who attended the briefing, said the Trump official stated that Hamas agreed to disarm and that amnesty for fighters who lay down their weapons is part of the discussion. No details were offered on timing or any legal structure. But raising amnesty publicly signals that talks are moving beyond just ceasefire mechanics and toward Hamas's future. Until now, negotiations have focused on

hostage exchanges, of course, and humanitarian access. Introducing amnesty into the discussion marks a shift toward the harder question that's been looming from the start. What happens to Hamas? That transition won't happen in isolation. Any disarmament and amnesty framework would require coordination among Israel, the U.S. and regional intermediaries, such as Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, and would ultimately depend on whether Hamas actually disarms. Hamas has framed the recent developments as proof of compliance, saying Israel must now meet its commitments, quote, without any deduction or delay. But there's irony to that urgent demand from the terror group. You may remember that the Trump-brokered ceasefire, which was agreed to in October of 2025, required that all deceased hostages be returned

within 72 hours of the deal taking effect. As previously mentioned, the final hostage remains, those of Master Sergeant Rangovili, were returned Monday, more than two months. months later. Still, Hamas' demand intersects directly with Trump's broader framework for Gaza's future. Trump's 20-point plan explicitly links the return of all captives to disarmament. Under the plan, fighters who decommissioned their weapons would be granted amnesty, while those who wish to leave Gaza would be provided safe passage. Aid access and border openings are tied to preventing a re-entrenchment of Hamas' military control. Regional diplomacy around that framework is apparently already underway. Turkey's foreign minister met Hamas officials in Ankara to discuss the second

phase of the ceasefire and humanitarian conditions in Gaza. The minister briefed the delegation on Turkey's engagement across international platforms, including Trump's Board of Peace. All right. Coming up in the back of the brief, another government shutdown. Look at that. May be looming, with lawmakers deadlocked and time running short. It's Groundhog Day in Washington, D.C. We'll have those details. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, PDB listeners know that I'm constantly traveling, right? It seems like I'm always on the road.

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A partial shutdown could begin at 12.01 a.m. Saturday after Senate Democrats signaled that they may block a sweeping spending package unless funding for the Department of Homeland Security the DHS is stripped out and renegotiated separately. The standoff follows the death of Alex Preti, a 37-year-old intensive care nurse, who was killed during an encounter with federal immigration agents in Minneapolis just last Saturday.

The House passed bill worth more than $1.2 trillion, that's with a T, funds the bulk of the federal government through September, including the Departments of Defense, Treasury, State, Health and Human Services, labor, housing, and urban development, transportation and education. But DHS has become the flashpoint. Democrats say they will not provide the votes needed to overcome a filibuster unless DHS funding is pulled from the package and rewritten to impose new constraints on federal immigration enforcement. Those demands include requiring

judicial warrants for immigration arrests, mandating that federal agents identify themselves, compelling DHS cooperation with state and local investigations, and limiting what Democrats describe as the growing, quote, mission creep of federal agencies operating beyond traditional immigration roles. Republicans, backed by the White House, have said they will not carve DHS out of the House-passed package, arguing that doing so would fracture the agreement keeping most of the government funded and virtually guarantees a shutdown while the House remains in recess. For background, the package passed in the House as a combined funding bill with DHS included. If the Senate amends the bill in any way, well, it must be sent back to Congress to the House, which

will not return from recess until Monday after the deadline passes. Well, that leaves little room to maneuver and raises the odds of at least a temporary lapse in funding. Notably, even as Democrats push back, there is unease within their own ranks about triggering another shutdown so soon after the last one that they triggered. Some lawmakers point out that key immigration functions, especially ICE and Border Patrol operations, would continue, largely on interrupted, thanks to funding already provided under last year's GOP Megabill, while other DHS agencies like FEMA and TSA would see their funding dry up. In other words, the pain would be unevenly distributed, falling more heavily on agencies that have nothing

to do with immigration enforcement. If funding expires, non-essential federal employees that affected agencies would be furloughed, while essential workers would continue reporting without pay. The timing is especially fraught. And I don't think I've used the word fraught very often on the PDB. A shutdown would begin during tax season, disrupting IRS operations, shuddering walk-in taxpayer assistance centers, and slowing refund processing, while also impacting air travel oversight, public health programs, and early childhood services like Head Start. But Democrats are betting that outrage over Preddy's death in Minneapolis gives them the

political ground to force new limits on immigration enforcement. never let a tragedy go to waste. Republicans, meanwhile, are hoping that shutdown fatigue won't break Democrats' resolve. You know, the lesson here, perhaps, is never underestimate a politician's willingness to use a government shutdown to score political points. Right now, the Democrats, who've been searching for ways to damage the Trump administration as the midterm elections approach, well, they see the chaos and the tragic shootings in Minneapolis as their best bet.

It sounds mercenary. I mean, we are talking about two deceiters. citizens, but even tragic deaths have a political angle in Washington, D.C. The irony is that damage that the Democrats have spotted is self-inflicted by the Trump administration. By most accounts, they secured the country's borders effectively in short order, after four years of what many folks perceived as essentially open borders under the Biden administration. Now, that could have been a winning message heading into the midterms, but the administration's subsequent handling of immigration enforcement has been poorly managed and poorly messaged. If they lose in the midterms,

this issue will be a significant factor in that laws. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Wednesday, the 28th of January. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at BDB at thefirsttv.com. And remember, you can get an ad-free PDB experience simply by becoming a premium member of the President's Daily Brief. All you got to do is visit PDB Premium. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. If you used Babel, you would. Babel's conversation-based techniques teaches you useful words and phrases to get you speaking

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