The President's Daily Brief - January 2nd, 2025: Putin's Economic Crisis & Migrant Gangs Escalate Attacks Ahead Of Trump's Return

Episode Date: January 2, 2025

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief:     First, we'll have a preview of the domestic challenges facing Russian strongman Vladimir Putin in 2025, namely Russia’s floundering economy, which is teetering on the brink as the Kremlin continues to pour resources into their war on Ukraine. Later in the show, we’ll unpack Chinese President Xi Jinping’s annual New Year's address, in which he attempted to shore up confidence regarding Beijing’s struggling economy, while warning that no one can stop China's "reunification" with Taiwan.  Plus, an update on the violent Tren de Aragua gang, as the group escalates attacks on U.S. border crossings in Texas in an effort to embed more members in the US before President-elect Donald Trump takes office. In our 'Back of the Brief' segment, Israeli spies who infiltrated deep into Hezbollah’s terror network over the past year reveal some intimate details regarding the group’s former leaders, including a top commander's plans to marry his four mistresses. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.     YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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It's Thursday. The 2nd of January. 2025, in case you were curious about the year. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. Kicking off 2025, we'll have a preview of the domestic challenges that are facing Russian President Vladimir Putin, namely Russia's economy, which some would say is somewhat on the edge, on the brink, as the Kremlin continues to pour resources into its war on Ukraine. Later in the show, we'll unpack Chinese President Xi Jinping's annual New Year's address. Did you catch that one? In which he attempted to show up confidence regarding Beijing's struggling economy, while warning that no one can stop China's,

quote, reunification with Taiwan. Plus, an update on the violent Trenda Raqwa gang, the TDA gang, as the group escalates attacks on U.S. border crossings in Texas, in an effort to embed more members in the U.S. before President-elect Trump takes office. And in today's back of the brief, Israeli spies who infiltrated deep into Hezbollah's terror network over the past year revealed some intimate details regarding the group's former leaders, including a top commander's plans to marry his four mistresses, not one, not two, but four mistresses. But first, today's PDB spotlight. 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for Vladimir Putin, but not just because of what's happening

on the ground in Ukraine. While much of the focus has been on the battlefields, Putin is facing an equally critical fight, and that would be keeping his nation's economy afloat. Now, I'm not an economist, you may have guessed that since listening to the PDB, but I had my team here at the President's Daily Brief, pull some data for me, and the number is, well, they frankly don't lie. Russia's economy is showing some serious cracks, and they're tied directly to the ongoing conflict. If things spiral further, it won't just hurt Russia's finances. It could threaten Putin's hold on power itself. First, inflation in Russia is soaring. Prices for everyday essentials, things like eggs, fish, fruits, and vegetables are climbing fast. Inflation is running at 9.5% this year,

which means that Russians are paying nearly 10% more for goods and services than that, than they did a year ago. And to fight this, Russia's central bank has set its interest rate at a rather staggering 21%. Now, for context, that's the highest level in years. A high interest rate makes it more expensive, of course, to borrow money for things like homes or businesses, slowing down the economy even more. Now, let's talk about manufacturing and services, the backbone really, of any economy. These sectors are still growing, but just barely. We know this from something called the purchasing managers index or the PMI. Now, this is a survey that measures how businesses and industries like factories and retail are doing. A score above 50, well, that means growth,

while below 50 signals contraction. Russia's manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.8 this past month, and that's barely above growth, and it's a drop from the previous month. In simpler terms, companies are producing less because costs are going up and demand is softening. It's like I'm teaching an economy class here. I guess that would be an economics class. I'm certainly not teaching an English class, apparently. And even that, anemic amount of growth is fragile and heavily tied to the country's war spending. Factories that produce military equipment, ammunition, and other defense-related goods

are operating at full capacity, driving up overall manufacturing output. But if that slows for any reason, well, Russia's economy will be in serious trouble. The services sector, which includes things like restaurants and tourism, is also struggling. Really? Really, they're not getting as many tourists in Russia as they used to? It's PMI fell to 51.2, meaning growth is slowing down there as well. Russians are tightening their belts, and businesses are feeling the pinch. And then there's the labor market. Now, at first glance, it looks strong.

Unemployment is a record low of 2.3%. But here's the problem. That low number isn't because the economy is thriving. It's because so many workers have been pulled into the defense industry or the military to support the war effort. High-paying jobs in these sectors are making it hard for other industries to find and keep workers. Construction, agriculture, and even tech companies are struggling to compete for employees. Labor shortages like this are a red flag. They mean businesses can't grow, and it puts a drag on the entire economy. And let's not forget the impact of international sanctions. While these haven't completely collapsed Russia's economy, thanks to their friends in China and Iran and North Korea,

they are slowing down critical areas like the military industrial sector and technology. They haven't crushed Russian livelihoods yet, but they're blocking innovation and progress that will hurt down the road. So here's why all this spells trouble for Putin. It turns out that war, well, it's pretty expensive. In 2024, the Kremlin's spending on the war with Ukraine reached a record 16.3 trillion rubles, that's around $148 billion, U.S. dollars, more than 8% of the country's GDP, and 41% of its total budget. It's draining Russia's resources and forcing the government into a classic dilemma, often referred to as guns or butter, a choice between military spending and funding for civilian needs. In Putin's case, the priority is clear. Defense spending is taking precedence, leaving, well,

little room to address other critical areas of the economy. A weak economy means lower public support for Putin's policies, both at home and abroad. And combine that with sanctions and labor shortages and Putin's ability to sustain the Ukraine war, well, or any long-term conflict, becomes, quite frankly, a lot harder. In short, the cracks in Russia's economy. are growing, and they're directly tied to its war in Ukraine. Well, let's say Putin's war in Ukraine. How long he can paper over these cracks? Well, that remains an open question.

All right. Coming up next, we'll have a breakdown of Chinese President Xi Jinping's annual New Year's address, which included a veiled threat regarding Taiwan. Plus, the violent TDA gang is escalating attacks on U.S. border crossings in Texas in an effort to embed more members in the U.S. before President-elect Trump takes office in January. I'll have those stories when we come back.

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Turning to China, President Xi Jinping delivered his annual New Year's address on Tuesday, which he used to show up confidence around China's struggling economy. Look at this. It's all about the economy this morning, while warning that no one can stop China's reunification with Taiwan. Hmm. Xi Jinping finds himself in a precarious position as 2025 begins, particularly with the return of Trump to the global stage, who's promised to hit China with aggressive tariffs once his second term gets underway. The prospect of a new trade war threatens to compound China's longstanding economic woes, including a ballooning debt, slow wage growth, and high youth unemployment. That's according to our report from the Financial Times. China's economy, which is the second largest in the the world behind the U.S., also continues to face broad deflationary pressures, as well as generally low business confidence and sagging consumer demand. This economic storm has driven skepticism among international investors about whether leaders in Beijing can turn the situation around

anytime soon. In his address, she claimed that the nation's economy is on, quote, an upward trajectory, oh, but also gave a rare acknowledgement of the strains it's placed on as citizens. With consumer confidence at a low, she vowed to make economic growth his, quote, top priority. China just missed their growth target of 5% over the past year, if you can believe, their books, with GDP coming in at 4.8%. China has struggled to maintain healthy economic growth since lifting their zero COVID policy back in 2023, which had driven their GDP down to just 3% in 2022. Not to mention the Chinese regime's failure to provide any transparency around the origins of COVID, but that's another story. Still, Xi appealed to his citizens to stay optimistic, saying, quote,

we can prevail with our hard work, as always we grow in the wind and rain, and we get stronger through hard times, end quote. She plans to pour even more resources into high-tech manufacturing to help drive growth, focusing state investments on electric vehicles, batteries, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence. He added that China's extensive international ties, particularly their economic partnership with Russia, will also help offset their domestic stagnation. As our listeners are likely aware, back in February of 2022, just days before Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine, China and Russia agreed to a no-limits partnership. Well, how convenient was that? While that relationship has bolstered trade between the two eastern powers and, frankly, has kept Putin's war machine operating,

it comes with its own set of drawbacks. In response, the Biden administration, remember him? Well, they've sought to restrict China's access to computer chips, clamped down on Chinese investment into the U.S. and target Chinese companies with economic sanctions. With President-elect Trump gearing up for a further crackdown on Chinese economic interests, tensions between the U.S. and the Chinese Communist Party, the CCP, will likely only increase. Which brings us to the issue of Taiwan. China has significantly escalated their harassment of the island democracy over the past year, conducting regular military drills in the waters of the South China Sea. China claims the democratically governed Taiwan as its own and is not ruled out using military force

to retake the island, if Taiwan's leadership, backed by the U.S., continues to resist what they call reunification. She used his New Year's address to issue a fresh warning to the CCP's global adversaries, saying, quote, the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are one family. No one can sever our family bonds, and no one can stop the historical trend of national reunification, end quote. Well, he did not expand on his plans. We can, like, further expect military escalations in the region as 2025 gets underway. All right. Shifting to the U.S. The violent trend to Aragua gang are escalating efforts to breach the U.S. border in El Paso, Texas, issuing alarming new threats targeting security personnel as they attempt to expand their criminal

campaign across the nation. Oh, the TDA is threatening U.S. law enforcement. And that's interesting. According to a Texas law enforcement memo obtained by the New York Post, the gang members armed with knives, tire irons, and broken bottles are vowing to attack Texas National Guard soldiers stationed at the border. Well, good luck with that, TDA gang members. It's reportedly part of a push to embed more members in the U.S. before President-elect Trump takes office. The memo reveals that just last week 20 gang members attempted to force their way through

a border gate in El Paso and warns of plans for additional assaults. I'm not a member of the Texas National Guard, nor am I a border security expert, but I think there's an answer to this that might work. An anonymous informant reportedly tipped off Texas authorities, cautioning that these violent break-ins, quote, would continue every night. The informant further warned, quote, they intend to cause harm, noting the gang members are likely to exploit moments when border guards are left without federal agents to assist them.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott has taken an aggressive stance against TDA, declaring it a foreign terrorist organization and imposing mandatory 10-year minimum sentences for smugglers associated with the gang. While not officially labeled as a terrorist organization, the Department of Homeland Security labeled the TDA a transnational criminal organization in July. A retired Homeland Security agent described the surge in violence as a reaction to the incoming administration stating, quote, you're saying that violence at the border because they know that it's going to change, meaning the situation at the border. But the gang's operations extend far beyond the U.S. border. Fox News reports that the TDA gang has now spread to at least 19 states, with

recent arrests shedding light on the scope of its reach. In New York, police recently raided gang hideouts in Brooklyn and the Bronx, arresting nearly two dozen individuals. Now, as we've discussed here on the PDB, the gang made national headlines last year in Aurora, Colorado, by overwhelming an apartment complex and engaging in assaults, human trafficking, and sex abuse. In December, authorities detained 14 individuals tied to a violent residence invasion in the area. Meanwhile, in Tennessee, Interpol apprehended a high-ranking TDA member linked to human trafficking and terrorism in November. Additionally, the brother of the migrant who murdered Augusta University student Lake in Riley last February

was known to have ties to TDA. compounding the situation, the TDA's operations increasingly involve partnerships with Mexican cartels, who are aiding in the smuggling of weapons, drugs, and people, while advancing an anti-American ideology. As a retired Homeland Security agent puts it, quote, they hate the United States just like terrorists do, end quote. Now, lawmakers, such as Texas Representative Troy Nells, attribute the surge in illegal crossings to the Biden administration's border policies. I didn't even know they had border policies, citing the rollback of numerous Trump-era restrictions. Representative Nell stated, quote, the sad reality is the Biden administration knows that violent criminals are coming into our country,

they just don't care, end quote. At the El Paso border crossing, the challenge for federal and state authorities is clear, act swiftly and decisively to contain TDA's spread or risk further entrenchment of this transnational menace. All right. the back of the brief. Israel's deep infiltration into Hezbollah's terror network over the past year reveals some intimate details regarding the group's former leaders, including a top commander's plans to marry his four mistresses. More on that when we come back. How many discounts does USA auto insurance offer? Too many to say here. Multi-vehicle discount. Safe driver discount. New vehicle

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It's Cambria amazing. All right. Bring a date, your team, or even your mom. Book direct at choiceotails.com. See you on the roof. In today's back of the brief, Israel's meticulous infiltration of Hezbollah's top ranks has unveiled startling details

about the personal activities of its commanders, including the deceased Fuad Shooker, who was under such intense surveillance, even his plan to marry his four mistresses, was uncovered. That's some actionable intelligence. A New York Times investigation published this week detailed how deeply Israeli operatives

penetrated into Hezbollah's intersankdom, planting listening devices in bunkers and hideouts. This unprecedented access not only allowed Israel to track leadership movements with surgical precision, but also facilitated a series of deadly targeted strikes, demonstrating the sophistication of Israel's intelligence capabilities. Shokker, the senior commander of the Iranian-backed terror group, was long sought by Israel and the U.S. for his role in a 1983 Marine barracks. bombing that killed 241 American service members. He was among the most heavily monitored Hezbollah leaders. In addition to his operational activities, Israeli agencies tracked nearly every aspect of his personal life, including his, well, his intimate relationships. At one point,

he arranged for Hezbollah's top cleric to perform marriage ceremonies over the phone for his four mistresses. Well, isn't that romantic? Shuker apparently felt uneasy about his affairs and turned to the group's highest religious authority for help. As a reminder, Shukh's involvement in a deadly rocket attack on the Golan Heights in July, which killed 12 civilians, including children, provoked a rare and high-profile strike by Israel on Beirut days later, which ultimately resulted in his death. But Shukh's demise was just one chapter in a broader campaign.

As previously reported on the PDB, Mossad operatives managed to permeate every level of Hezbollah's terrorist organization, leveraging human sources and advanced surveillance to uncover hideouts and track leadership movements. These efforts culminated in September with the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Khashbullah for three decades. Despite warnings from his commanders to relocate, Nasrallah underestimated Israeli's intelligence reach and chose to remain in his fortified Beirut-Lebanon bunker. Israeli F-15 fighter jets unleashed thousands of pounds of explosives on the bunker, eliminating Nisrala and an Iranian general.

The revelations about the extent of Israeli infiltration capturing both operational secrets and personal vulnerabilities paint a picture of a, well, frankly, relentless intelligence apparatus determined to preempt threats and maintain their regional stability. All right. That, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Thursday to January. If you have any questions for me that you'd like to address on the air, reach out to me, please at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And of course, as you may already know by now, to listen to the show ad-free, well, it is simple. Become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting

PDB premium.com. It really is that simple. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin and an update on that terrorist incident in New Orleans that shattered the peace and revelry on New Year's Eve. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.