The President's Daily Brief - January 31st, 2024: Axis Exposed, Ukrainian Military Shuffle, & Russia’s Redirected Rubles

Episode Date: January 31, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: We take a deep dive into the "Axis of Resistance", the network of Iranian proxies fueling the turmoil in the Middle East. We cover the latest developments in Syria where Israeli forces have conducted airstrikes against Iranian advisors, along with a tactical incursion in the West Bank. We explore the escalating internal tensions within the Ukrainian government, amid widespread speculation that President Vladimir Zelensky is considering the ousting of his chief military officer. In the Back of the Brief, we report on the European Union's impending financial maneuver that could redirect billions from the Russian central bank's assets to aid Ukraine. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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It's Wednesday, 31 January. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. First up, as the world awaits a likely U.S. military response for the attack in Jordan that killed three service members, I want to shine a spotlight on the so-called axis of resistance, and that's the alliance of Iranian proxies responsible for the current chaos in the Middle East. Later in the program, Israel eliminates Iranian advisors in an airstrike in Syria and conducts a strategic raid in the West Bank. Plus, tensions rise among the senior ranks of the Ukrainian government amidst rumors that President Zelensky may soon dismiss his chief military officer.

And finally, in today's back of the brief, the European Union appears on the verge of dealing a major financial blow to Russia, potentially transferring billion. in frozen Russian central bank assets to Ukraine. But first up, the PDB spotlight. We're still awaiting a response from the Biden administration for the deaths of three American service members killed in Jordan this weekend by a drone attack launched by an Iranian proxy group. President Biden informed reporters yesterday that he has decided upon a course of action,

adding that he holds Iran responsible for supplying the weapons that were used in the attack. Now, the president did not, as you might imagine, give any details on how the U.S. would respond, but he did reiterate his intention to avoid expanding the conflict in the Middle East. Now, that's almost a daily statement from the White House, and that's fine. No one should want to expand any conflict. But if you actually want to stop the conflict, then you need to engage in something that resembles deterrence. And that, given the ongoing attacks and provocations from Iranian proxies, is where the White House has fallen short.

Now, we've spoken a lot on this podcast about Iran and its proxies around the region, an alliance of militant organizations which Tehran has dubbed the Axis of Resistance. This group is behind most of the chaos that we currently see in the Middle East. So, I want to take a closer look at this axis of resistance. To start, it's worth noting that this alliance didn't just spring up overnight. The term axis of resistance dates to around. around 2010, but Iran has been cultivating this network for decades, with the Kuds Force, the elite clandestine wing of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, training and arming these

organizations to threaten its enemies and increase its influence in the Middle East. What makes this alliance unique is its composition of Muslim groups that don't align strictly along sectarian lines. Despite frequent conflicts between Sunni and Shiite groups, the axis of resistance unites in its animosity towards Israel and opposition to Western influence in the Middle East, rather than along particular sectarian doctrine. Basically, opposition to Iran's enemies and willingness to accept Tehran's guidance and aid are the only requirements for membership in this Evil League of Evil, that and of course the monthly dues that cover refreshments served at the regular club poker nights. I want to go through some of the major players in this

Alliance. Mind you, this is not an exhaustive list. It's just the key players. Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, is arguably the most prominent and influential member of the Axis of Resistance, engaging in increasing attacks on Israeli targets at the Lebanese-Israeli border almost daily. The group was founded by Iran's Revolutionary Guard in 1982. It was initially a militia that was raised in response to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, but it eventually evolved. into a political and military organization. Hezbollah has essentially become the model for other Tehran-backed groups across the region. Next, we've got the Islamic resistance in Iraq.

This is an umbrella group of Shiite Muslim militias that are closely linked with Iran's Revolutionary Guard. They initially emerged after the 2003 U.S. invasion and grew with an influence after playing a role in battling the Islamic State, which had taken territory across Iraq. and Syria. The United States has designated the Islamic resistance as a terrorist organization, yet many of its factions operate with the Iraqi government's authority and even receive state salaries. Kataib Hezbollah is the militia widely believed to be behind the Jordan attack that killed the three U.S. soldiers and wounded dozens. All right, then there are the Houthis, a group that

controls a large swath of Western Yemen. Iran is believed to have begun quietly support supporting the Houthis in the early to mid-2000s. That support turned overt when the Yemeni Civil War broke out in 2014, and the group became Iran's proxy against the Saudi-backed Yemeni government. The final group that I want to spotlight is Hamas, which Iran began supporting back in the 1990s. Iran's assistance to Hamas has included financial, political, and military support, particularly in the form of arms supplies and training. Now, Iran has built this axis over the years, with the stated objectives of becoming the regional leader, driving the U.S. out of the Middle East, and of course, destroying Israel. The axis serves as a blanket of deniability when their proxies attack targets, essentially giving the Iranian regime the ability to say they had nothing to do with anything.

All right, coming up after the break, Israel conducts targeted airstrikes against Iranian advisors in Syria. And tensions are reportedly rising within Ukraine's leadership as speculation intensifies over President Zelensky's potential dismissal of his top general. I'll be right back. This episode is brought to you by Ultima Replenisher. Health is all about balance, like a salad with fries. So why not have balance in your hydration? With six essential electrolytes and no junk, Ultima provides balanced hydration you can enjoy every day. That means no sugar, calories, or carbs.

and it's not loaded with sodium. Just delicious plant-based flavors you'll actually look forward to drinking. Shop Ultima on Amazon or in store at Target and Whole Foods Market. Welcome back. Turning our attention to the latest military actions by Israel, Syrian state media reported on Monday that an Israeli air strike south of the capital of Damascus

killed, quote, a number of Iranian advisors. Iran's Tasnium News Agency appeared to confirm the action in a subsequent report that acknowledged an Israeli strike on an Iranian advisory center in the area. Now, those initial reports were thrown into question when Iran's ambassador to Syria denied any Iranian casualties and said no advisory center in the region had been targeted. An Israeli military spokesperson declined to comment on the situation. Syrian state media also retracted part of their report later in the day, instead saying

an Israeli air strike had, quote, resulted in the martyrdom and wounding of a number of civilians but that no Iranians were killed. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights tried to provide some clarity regarding the strike, saying their investigation found that seven people were killed in the Israeli strike, including two members of Iran-backed Hezbollah, as well as the bodyguard of an Iranian officer. Reports, however, remain inconsistent and hard to verify.

A source in Iran's regional alliance reportedly told Reuters that the strike had hit the IRC's operational headquarters in the region, while the Jerusalem Post, citing Arab media, said the airstrikes may have destroyed the Kud's force branch of the IRGC in the area. Okay, no clarity here. Without a definitive statement from officials in Israel, Tehran or Damascus, it will be difficult to ultimately determine who was killed and what was targeted. In an unrelated action, Israeli forces carried out an undercover operation, killing three

Palestinian militants in a hospital in the West Bank. Israeli commandos, disguised as hospital workers and Muslim women, raided the hospital on Tuesday. Israeli military officials said the men were using the Janine Hospital facility to hide, and that one was planning to carry out an imminent attack. The operation was reportedly a joint mission with the army, Shinbet Security Service, and border police. Officials identified one man as Muhammad Wali Jalamna, a Hamas fighter who was allegedly planning an attack inspired by. the 7-October massacre. The other militants were identified as two brothers who were part of the Islamic jihad's Janine Brigade in the Volatile West Bank. The Palestinian Health Ministry, which is,

of course, run by Hamas, confirmed the deaths and condemn the operation, saying, quote, the occupation is committing a new massacre inside hospitals. Israeli officials, however, said the men were using the hospital as shelter in, quote, another example of the cynical use of civilian areas in hospitals as shelters and human shields by terrorist organizations. Israel's military chief said, quote, we do not want to turn hospitals into battlefields, with patients on the right and doctors and nurses on the left and terrorists in the middle. But we are even more determined not to allow hospitals in Gaza, Judea and Samaria, Lebanon, above ground are in tunnel shafts and tunnels under hospitals to become a place that is a cover for terrorism, end quote. Okay, turning our attention to

Ukraine. Long-simmering discord between leaders in Kiev is boiling to the surface as rumors began to swirl Monday that Ukrainian President Zelensky plans to fire his top military commander. The reports first emerged on Monday that General Valerie Zilluzni, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces, had been dismissed after months of infighting with Zelensky. After rampant speculation, a spokesperson for Zelensky denied that any dismissal had taken place. On Tuesday, however, a report in the Financial Times shed light on the situation, alleging that Zelensky had indeed informed Zilluzni on Monday that he would be removed from his position leading the Ukrainian military.

Four people familiar with the discussions told the Financial Times that Zelensky offered Zeluzni a new role as a defense advisor, but that Zeluzzi reportedly refused. Zelensky is reported to have made it clear that Zeluzzi would be dismissed regardless of whether or not he accepted the new position. The sources added that due to the leaks on Monday and subsequent media maelstrom that followed, his dismissal would likely not be officially announced for some time. The tension between the two had been building for months. As we've previously discussed on the PDB, the pair have had an increasingly public falling out and reportedly rarely speak to

each other. Insiders say that Zelensky sees Zalusini as a potential political rival, given his popularity throughout Ukraine. Now, if the reports are true, Zalusinie's ousting will likely cause an uproar within a country already fractured by the ongoing war with Russia. A Ukrainian military historian commented that, quote, this will have a very, very negative impact on the morale of the army, though he added that he felt the rumors were a, quote, fabrication. Zalusin is a widely respected figure in Ukraine, with some polls showing his popularity with Ukrainian citizens. at the same level or higher than Zelensky. Observers say that Zelensky is threatened by this popularity

and is eager to remove anyone from his path that could challenge his leadership in the future. In December, Zilluzni lambasted Zelensky's decision to fire all of Ukraine's regional military recruitment heads in August in an alleged crackdown on government corruption. Zeluzni has also consistently rebuffed the rosy picture of Ukraine's war effort that Zelensky has championed publicly. He drew Zelensky's ire in early November when he said the war had reached a stalemate.

Now, given the contradictory reports and statements within Ukraine regarding Zillusini, we likely won't have any clarity on this situation, at least for the short term. All right, the European Union is on the verge of taking new steps to damage Russian finances, redirecting billions and frozen Russian assets to Ukrainian reconstruction. I'll have more on that in today's back of the brief. I'll be right back. In today's back of the brief, the European Union is taking new steps to punish Russia financially, while at the same time lending a helping hand to the financially strapped nation of Ukraine.

According to EU officials, the bloc has reached an agreement that essentially confiscates the profits from hundreds of billions of dollars in frozen Russian assets and transfers them to the Ukrainian government. The tentative agreement still needs formal approval from EU member states, but is seen as a first step toward using some of the 200 billion euros, and that's about $216 billion, U.S. dollars, if my math is correct, in Russian central bank assets in the EU to help Ukraine rebuild from the destruction caused by the Russian invasion. According to EU officials, the move could generate an estimated 15 to 17 billion euros

over four years. Now, this agreement wouldn't touch the frozen assets themselves, just the interest in profits that they've been accruing. That's because, simply confiscating that money could spook international markets, as countries may no longer see their money as safe in the European banking system. The proposal would only target future profits and would not apply retroactively. If approved, the agreement would have to move through a long and legally challenging debate about how to actually use the Russian state assets. However, they would likely be airmarked for things like the reconstruction of infrastructure rather than Ukrainian defense spending. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Wednesday, 31 January. If you have any

questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Bloomberg follows the money, whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto's trillion-dollar swings. There's a money side to every story. Get the money side of the story. Subscribe now at Bloomberg.com.