The President's Daily Brief - January 9th, 2025: World Reacts To Trump's Threats Of Expansion & Russia's Troop Losses Fuel Fears Of Population Collapse

Episode Date: January 9, 2025

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief:     We’ll begin with an update on President-elect Donald Trump’s bombshell press conference on Tuesday, as world leaders react to his threats of American expansion through economic coercion and, potentially, military force. Later in the show, Russia’s troop losses in Ukraine just passed another grizzly milestone, as experts warn that Russia faces a “demographic timebomb” that could lead to a devastating population collapse. Plus, Iran, catastrophically weakened by their proxy war on Israel, is reportedly rushing to recoup 25 million barrels of oil from China before Donald Trump returns to office and tightens sanctions on their energy exports. In our 'Back of the Brief' segment, the Israeli military said on Wednesday that IDF forces have recovered the body of a hostage taken from Israel during the 7 October attacks, as well as another set of remains that may belong to the man’s captive son. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.     YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Second Half 2025. All rights reserved. It must provide a recent consumer mobile bill in the name of the person who gave me the deal. additional terms, conditions, and restrictions apply. It's Thursday, 9 January. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right. Let's get briefed. Today, an update on President-elect Donald Trump's headline-grabbing press conference

from Tuesday as world leaders react to his suggestions of American expansion through economic coercion and potentially military force. Later in the show, Russia's troop. losses in Ukraine just passed another grim milestone, as experts warned, that Russia faces a, quote, demographic time bomb that could lead to a devastating population collapse. Well, thanks, Vladimir Putin. Plus, Iran, seriously weakened by their proxy war on Israel, is reportedly rushing to recoup 25 million barrels of oil from China before Donald Trump returns to office and tighten sanctions on their energy exports. And in today's back of the brief, news out of Gaza, where Israeli forces have just

recovered the body of a hostage held in the enclave, as well as evidence that raises questions about the state of another related captive. But first, today's PDB spotlight. We'll begin with the global fallout over President-elect Donald Trump's threats to carve out a new sphere of influence for America by seizing or otherwise acquiring overseas territories, including from NATO allies. As we discussed on yesterday's BDB, Trump gave one of his trademark headline-grabbing press conferences on Tuesday, where he outlined a second-term foreign policy agenda rooted not in global alliances and free trade, but in economic coercion and potentially unilateral U.S. military action. The President-elect spoke of his intention to acquire Greenland, the Panama Canal, and even Canada,

arguing that they're vital to securing America's economic and security interests from the threat of Chinese and Russian expansion. Now, regarding Canada, Trump ruled out, seizing the country through military force, well, that's good, but said the U.S. could likely annex Canada by applying economic pressure through steep tariffs on their exports, as roughly seven, 95% of Canadian exports go directly to the U.S., Trump said extreme tariffs would leave our northern neighbors with little choice, but to join America as the 51st state to avoid financial ruin.

Well, as you might imagine, world leaders are doing what they always do regarding Trump. Well, at first they're taking his comments literally, and then they're heading for the fainting couch. Canada's foreign minister fired back that they would, quote, never back to the government. down in the face of threats and said Trump's comments show a, quote, complete lack of understanding of what makes Canada a strong country, a? Okay, I added a hoser. Outgoing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau kept his message simpler, saying, quote, there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States. Trudeau added, there also isn't a snowballs chance in hell that I can

resurrect my reputation with the Canadian people. Okay, fair enough. I made up that last quote. Now, when it comes to Canada, most analysts, and even aides to Trump, say the president-elects discussions of it becoming the 51st state are mostly bluster, meant as a negotiating tactic to gain leverage over leaders in Ottawa before trade talks begin in his second term. As we've discussed on the PDB, Trump has threatened Canada with 25 percent tariffs on all imports over the flow of of migrants and drugs over the northern border, as well as what he argues, are trade imbalances. Regarding Greenland and the Panama Canal, however, Trump's intentions are less clear. At his Tuesday press conference, he said both are vital to America's economic and national security,

and he did not rule out the use of military force to take control. Greenland, which is still technically a part of Denmark, sits on vast deposits of rare earth minerals, oil and gas. and is also positioned near crucial global trade and military routes. China has been expanding their presence in the region in pursuit of Greenland's natural resources, and Russia has been building up their military presence in the Arctic. Now, Trump said he would impose tariffs on Denmark if they refused his offer to sell Greenland to the U.S. Following his remarks, Greenland's prime minister said, quote, let me repeat it, Greenland belongs to the Greenlanders.

Didn't know that was a term. Our future and fight for independence is our business, end quote. The Prime Minister of Denmark, a NATO ally, of course, also chimed in saying Greenland was not for sale. Greenland's leader met with the Danish king in Copenhagen on Wednesday in the wake of Trump's threats to discuss their path forward. While Greenland has long been a part of Denmark, they govern their own domestic affairs and they aim for eventual independence. Denmark's foreign minister said Wednesday that Greenland may push for independence in the near future, but added, quote, hardly with an ambition to become a federal state in the United States, end quote. He conceded, however, and this is interesting, that U.S. security concerns

over the expanding presence of Russia and China in the region are legitimate and pledged to cooperate on ways to deter the threat. Meanwhile, leaders in Panama also pushed back on Trump, saying their ownership with the Panama Canal was non-negotiable, full stop. As a reminder, Panama has controlled the American Bilt Canal for decades after President Carter gave it to Panama back in 1979, and that the U.S. then ended its joint partnership in controlling the Strategic Waterway in 1999. Trump also used the press conference to outline other ideas, including renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America. He also demanded that NATO members massively ramp up defense spending to 5% of GDP, which is more than double their current targets. Finally, Trump declared that the PDB, and this is interesting as well,

should become required listening for all humans by January of 26. European leaders largely dismissed his remarks, well, except for that last one, as completely unrealistic, though analysts said it's likely just a another negotiating tactic intended to show Europe he's serious about having U.S. allies take a more active role in their collective defense. While it's impossible to predict how all these issues will shake out, well, it is safe to say that politics in 2025 will not be dull. All right, coming up after the break, Russia's troop losses in Ukraine just passed another milestone. And Iran scrambles to recover billions of dollars worth of stranded.

oil before Trump returns to the White House. I'll have those stories when we come back. How many discounts does USAA auto insurance offer? Too many to say here. Multi-vehicle discount. Safe driver discount. New vehicle discount. Storage discount. Legacy. How many discounts will you stack up?

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where Russian troop losses have surged past 800,000 since the conflict began, as daily casualty figures reach staggering new heights that threatened to grind Putin's war machine to a halt. According to Ukraine's armed forces, these immense losses, encompassing both killed and wounded, reflect the relentless pace of Ukrainian counter-offensives and the Russian military's strategy of recklessly throwing unprepared troops onto the front lines in a desperate bid to gain territory. Since Russia's invasion began, nearly four years ago. Its forces have endured record-breaking casualty figures, with nearly 2,000 soldiers lost daily in recent weeks. This marks a sharp increase from earlier in the

conflict when daily losses ranged between 1,000 and 1,500 troops. The pace of Russia's monthly losses began rising from September of 2023 onward, reaching their peak on 19 December, 2004, the deadliest single day for Russian troops since the war began with 2,200 casualties. The commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces revealed that more than half of Russia's total losses occurred in 2024 alone. Notably, Keeves' figures were corroborated Tuesday by the British Defense Intelligence on X. Russia will likely continue to experience increasing manpower losses as fighting escalates in Kyrrhusk following Ukraine's long. of a new offensive in the southern area of the region over this past weekend.

Now, the scale of these losses is unprecedented. To put it into perspective, Russia's casualties in this conflict have now surpassed the total military casualties suffered by the United Kingdom during World War II, which was roughly 750,000. Beyond the immediate battlefield consequences, the human cost is exasperating Russia's demographic crisis. According to the Kiev Independent, experts warned that the heavy toll could accelerate a population decline already driven by falling birth rates. Russia's fertility rate has plummeted to roughly one and a half births per woman, and that's far below the two-birth needed for population stability.

Current projections suggest that Russia's population now at approximately 144 million could have by the end of the century. Despite Kremlin-led efforts to reverse this demographic spiral, such as programs to encourage more fooling around and higher birth rates, results have been negligible. The war itself only compounds the issue, of course, draining Russia of its working-age population while fostering a climate of uncertainty and instability. While Ukraine has been more guarded about its own losses,

officials in Kiev disclosed in late 2024 that, approximately 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed with another additional 370,000 injured. Of those injured, roughly half have reportedly returned to service. Western analysts caution that these figures likely understate the true toll, which may be in the hundreds of thousands. Additionally, the UN estimates that 12,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed with 25,000 more injured since the war began. As the conflict grinds on, speculation is mounted over whether President-elect Donald Trump can broker a ceasefire. But until then, Russia's spiraling casualties threaten its ability to sustain the grinding conflict. By the way, make sure to tune into this weekend's PDB Situation Report.

You can find that on the first TV and, of course, on our YouTube channel at President's Daily Brief and all podcast platforms. Our guests include the always insightful George Barros, the Russia team leader at the Institute for the Study of War. We'll be discussing the impact of Putin's war on the Russian population and the Russian economy. All right, shifting to Iran. The Islamic regime is racing against the clock to retrieve 25 million barrels of oil, that's worth roughly $1.7 billion U.S. dollars, stranded in Chinese ports since 2018, due to U.S. sanctions. This comes as President-elect Donald Trump, prepares to reimpose harsh sanctions on the Iranian regime upon taking office. The oil shipments initially sent to China under waivers granted during

the Trump administration in 2018 allowed Iran's national oil company to store crude in Chinese facilities while seeking buyers. However, when Trump revoked the waivers in early 2019, the oil was left in limbo, unable to clear customs or reach its intended markets. This predicament underscores the precarious nature of Tehran's oil trade under sanctions, even as China remains its largest oil buyer, purchasing nearly 90% of Iran's exports at significant discounts. Beijing, however, has consistently maintained that its energy cooperation with Iran is perfectly legitimate. Of course it is, and COVID didn't escape from the Wuhan last. It's all good. Now, most Iranian oil sold to China is redocmented as non-Iranian while on route,

relying on a web of shadow tankers to obscure its origins. The current stockpile, however, is explicitly documented as Iranian, complicating its sale or transport. The oil is currently stored in Chinese facilities operated by PDA Energy and the China General Plastics Corporation. These operators are demanding over $450 million in accumulated storage fees. Iran, desperate to reclaim the trapped resource, has entered negotiations with the Chinese operators to resolve the impasse, but it won't be simple. According to an Iranian source familiar with the matter, to retrieve the oil, Iran must undertake a complex process involving reloading it into tankers,

conducting ship-to-ship transfers at sea, and red documenting. it to disguise its origin before it can be marketed anew. Yes, I did use the word anew. Iran's foreign minister visited Beijing in December to address the issue and reportedly made some incremental progress. Yet the details of these negotiations remain murky, and the scale of the obstacles suggest any resolution will be hard won. Iran is attempting to leverage its broader relationship with China, its ally and trading partner, of course, to free the stranded oil. founding the Iranian regime's urgency as Trump's upcoming inauguration. During Trump's first term, his administration imposed some of the most punishing sanctions in Iran's history, crippling its

oil-dependent economy. According to Reuters, analysts anticipate a similar hardline approach from Trump's incoming administration. The stranded oil underscores the challenges Iran faces in maintaining its trade despite U.S. sanctions, even with China's cooperation. It also emphasizes Beijing, cautious approach, balancing its economic ties with Tehran against the risks of directly provoking Washington. Okay. Coming up in today's back of the brief, news out of Gaza, where Israeli forces have just recovered the body of a hostage held in the enclave, as well as evidence that raises questions about

the state of another related captive. I'll be right back. Tocovus is the go-to for premium handcrafted Western boots. Stop by any store location for a warm welcome, a cold drink in hand, and a truly one-of-a-kind shopping experience. Let our friendly staff help you find your new go-to boots, whether your first pair or your 50th. Finish things off with a complimentary boot brand to make them extra special.

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Get the money side of the story. Subscribe now at Bloomberg.com. In today's back of the brief, the Israeli military said on Wednesday that ID of forces have recovered the body of a hostage taken from Israel during the 7 October attacks, as well as another set of remains that may belong to the man's captive son. The deceased hostage was identified as Yosef Zayadni, a man in his 50s from an Arab-Bedouin city in southern Israel, who had been taken hostage along with three of his grown children during Hawass's brutal assault. Now, two of his children, both in their late teens, were released in November of

23 during the limited truce between Israel and Hamas. But Yosef, along with his 22-year-old son Hamza, remained in captivity. Yosef's body was recovered from an underground tunnel in the area of Rafa in southern Gaza alongside the bodies of his captors. While officials with the Israeli military said they're still investigating the circumstances of his death, they uncovered information about his son Hamza that, quote, raised serious concerns for his life. The army is now reportedly running tests to determine whether another set of remains recovered from this site belonged to Yosef's 22-year-old son.

The discovery is adding pressure on leaders in Jerusalem to finalize an elusive ceasefire deal with the terror group after more than a year of fighting. The families of hostages chastised Israeli officials for failing to secure a deal last year with a representative of the hostages' families' forum, saying a negotiated ceasefire, quote, comes far too late for Yosef, who was taken alive

and should have returned the same way, end quote. They added, quote, every day in captivity poses an immediate mortal danger to the hostages, end quote. According to our report from the New York Post, both men were believed to still be alive. Yosef's name even appeared on a list issued by Hamas on Sunday of 34 Israeli hosts.

hostages still held in Gaza who could be released in the first stage of a ceasefire agreement. Now, as we noted earlier this week, however, that list was months old, the same one provided by Israel to mediators back in July. As a reminder, Israeli officials say there are 96 hostages remaining in Gaza, though they say at least 30 are thought to be deceased. Now, Hamas, reportedly, doesn't even know where all the hostages are located. Other reporting surfacing this week paints a more negative outlook, stating that some estimates now indicate that perhaps only 20 of the remaining hostages are still alive. The reality is that because Hamas has failed to provide any details, nobody really knows how many hostages remain alive. U.S. Secretary of State

Anthony Blinken said Wednesday that mediators were, quote, very close to securing a ceasefire deal that would begin with the release of roughly 34 hostages. He said the agreement, is all but inevitable, but cautioned it may not be finalized until after Donald Trump returns to office. Now, it's worth noting the Biden administration, including Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, has repeatedly issued optimistic statements about the state of various past ceasefire negotiations, only to be proven wrong repeatedly. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Thursday, 9 January. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirstTV.com.

And to listen to the show, ad-free, should you be so inclined, become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting PDB Premium.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool. Hi, this is Alex Goldmark from NPR's Planet Money.

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