The President's Daily Brief - July 10th, 2024: Ukraine-Poland Pact, Modi in Moscow, & South Korea's Nuclear Debate

Episode Date: July 10, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief:   As NATO leaders convene in Washington, Ukraine has secured a pivotal deal with Poland. The pact will bolster military ties and crucially, may grant Poland the authority to shoot down Russian missiles and drones within Ukraine’s airspace. India’s Prime Minister Modi is in Moscow today, meeting with President Putin to strengthen ties between their nations. Plus, we might be on the brink of a new nuclear arms race, as a prominent South Korean politician is calling for her country to arm itself with nuclear weapons. And finally, if Barcelona is on your summer vacation list, you might want to think twice. Locals have taken to soaking tourists with water guns as a form of protest. We’ll explain why in the Back of the Brief. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] ☕ Blackout Coffee: https://www.blackoutcoffee.com/PDB Code: PDB Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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It's Wednesday, 10 July. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker. your eyes and ears on the world's stage. Let's get briefed. In today's spotlight, as NATO leaders convene in Washington, Ukraine has secured a pivotal deal with Poland. Now, the pact will bolster military ties and crucially may grant Poland the authority to shoot down Russian missiles and drones within Ukraine's airspace. Later in the show, India's Prime Minister Modi is in Moscow today, meeting with President Putin to strengthen ties between their nations. Look, between India, China, North Korea, and Iran,

Putin has managed to cobble together all the economic support he needs to basically defeat the current sanctions on Russia. Plus, on another cheery note, we might be on the brink of a new nuclear arms race as a prominent South Korean politician is calling for her country to arm itself with nuclear weapons. And finally, if Barcelona is on your summer vacation list, well, you might want to think twice. Tourists in Barcelona are getting soaked, literally. Locals have taken to attacking visitors to the famous city with water guns as a form of protest. We'll explain why in the back of the brief.

But first, today's PDB spotlight. We'll kick things off today with the latest on Ukraine, as Poland signs a major. major new security deal with Kyiv that could greatly expand their role in the conflict. Amid the NATO summit in Washington, D.C. this week, Ukrainian President Zelensky announced Monday that he signed a bilateral security agreement with Poland that aims to strengthen their military ties, ensuring the continued flow of military aid through Polish territory and boosting efforts to train and arm Ukrainian forces. Now, while Kiev has signed 20 bilateral security deals with allies since the outbreak of the war, the deal with Poland is rather unprecedented,

as according to our report by Politico. And here's why. It includes a provision that will allow Poland to shoot down Russian missiles and drones in Ukraine's airspace that are fired in the direction of Poland. It's a prospect that could greatly aid Ukraine amid the Kremlin's relentless aerial bombardment of their cities. In a joint statement, Zeletsky and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said, quote, only together can Ukraine and Poland be free and strong. This is the sole way we can defend ourselves against Russian terror and protect our freedom and independence, end quote. As part of the agreement, Poland will also formalize the creation and training of a new volunteer military unit dubbed the Ukrainian Legion, which will be trained in Poland, and equipped by Poland

and other European partners. Additionally, Warsaw agreed to send several more military aid packages to Kiev this year. Unlike the other bilateral security agreements that Kiev has signed with Europe, many of which are regarded as essentially symbolic shows of support, the agreement with Poland, well, it's got some real teeth. In remarks on Monday, Polish Prime Minister Tusk said, quote, we treat every word in this agreement as mutual commitments, not empty promises. We know very well that this war, if it ended badly, would end badly not only for Ukraine, but also for Poland, for all of the Europe and the entire Western world. Poland has been a stalwart ally of Ukraine ever since Putin's invasion in February 22.

To date, they've provided 44 military aid packages worth roughly $4 billion. Another unique provision of the agreement is that Poland will work to encourage Ukrainian citizens to return to Ukraine for service in the military, as Kiev, frankly is in desperate need of additional recruits. Currently, it's estimated that more than one million Ukrainian refugees live in Poland. Finally, leaders in Warsaw will strongly consider sending Keeves several MiG-29 fighter jets so long as Sid doesn't undermine Poland's own security. Tusk explained, quote, I said very clearly we will help because your security is our security,

but we will not do anything that will weaken our immediate security, end quote. In exchange, Zelenskyy pledged to, work to accelerate internal reforms needed for NATO membership to contribute to modernizing the Polish military and to share battlefield intelligence directly with Warsaw. Now, it's anybody's guess how Putin will react to Poland shooting down Russian missiles and drones, but we suspect that he will not be pleased, not that anyone should care whether Putin is pleased or not, but it's fair to assume that we can expect another round of threats and saber-rattling from the Kremlin at the very least.

Poland seems to be sending a clear message here that they will not allow Putin to simply roll over Ukraine and potentially begin threatening their own territory and that of their neighbors in Eastern Europe. All right, coming up next, a high-stakes meeting between India's Prime Minister Modi and Russian President Putin is sparking fresh concerns about the deepening alliance

between India and Russia. Between Xi Jinping, Kim Jong-un, Iran's supreme leader and his toadies at the IRGC and now Modi, well, Putin's put together quite the posse. And later, in response to North Korea's escalating aggression, a rising chorus of South Koreans is now urging their nation to arm itself with nuclear weapons. We'll have those stories when we come back. Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money. Whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto's trillion dollar swings. There's a money side to every story. Get the money side of the story. Subscribe now at Bloomberg.com.

Welcome back to the PDB. I want to shift our focus just slightly to Russia, which is pursuing tighter relations with their allies in the east as Ukraine strengthens their ties with NATO allies in Europe. Indian Prime Minister Modi traveled to Moscow on Monday to meet with Russian President Putin the same day as NATO leaders began arriving in Washington, D.C., for a critical summit. I'm sure the timing is completely coincidental. This is Modi's first foreign trip since taking office for a third term in June, which should tell you just how important India's relationship with Russia is, particularly when it comes to India's national defense. Moscow is a key supplier of military weapons to India, and they also collaborate on energy

and science technology, with Russia helping India build several nuclear power plants over the past few years. With regards to their meeting, Russia is seeking to further boost trade with India to help prop up their wartime economy in the face of Western sanctions. Modi, however, is treading carefully and attempting to strike a diplomatic balance as India also maintains strong ties with the U.S. and Western Nations. It's not easy walking that fine line. Western nations expressed dismay over the meeting, particularly given its timing with this week's NATO summit. A spokesman for the U.S. U.S. State Department urged Modi to raise the issue of Ukraine's territorial integrity to Putin, yeah, that'll happen, and added that senior U.S. officials were making their displeasure known

to their counterparts in New Delhi. Well, that should do it. But officials in India have downplayed the timing as pure coincidence, saying the meeting was a scheduling priority, given the deepening ties between India and Russia. And I mean, who even knew there was a NATO summit going on this week? Such a coincidence. But it also comes just a day after a Russian airstrike killed at least 41 people in Ukraine, including patients at a children's hospital in Kiev. In light of the bombing, photos of Modi's arrival in Moscow quickly went viral as the leader hugged Putin and called him, quote, My Dearest Friend. Is he? Is he really your dearest friend? It could be diplomatic hyperbole. The warm embrace was too much for Ukrainian President Zelensky to stomach. He issued a fiery rebuke

on Monday evening saying, quote, it is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world's largest democracy hugged the world's most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day. Modi reportedly voiced his support for a peace deal with Ukraine and offered India's assistance, but he's not expected to aggressively push Putin on the issue. That's putting it mildly. But that's hardly a surprise, again, given their expanding economic ties. Now, for some context, India has been buying billions of dollars of discounted oil from Moscow since Putin's invasion of Ukraine, helping Russia bypass Western sanctions on their oil exports. Russian oil exports to India rose tenfold in 2022 and doubled again last year. Of course,

well, not to get all messy, but you could ask if any of that Russian oil being refined in India ends up making its way to Europe or the U.S. Hmm. But I digress. India has been playing a role similar to China, providing economic support for the Putin regime, allowing him to continue waging his war on Ukraine. Now, India has justified their economic support for Russia as in keeping with their traditionally stable and friendly ties with Moscow, while also noting that they rely heavily on imported oil to cover their energy needs. But India also has an eye on their longtime rival China. Analysts say that as China continues to move closer to Russia, India is eager to make sure that their regional influence is not displaced.

All right, moving on to the Korean Peninsula, where discussions of a dramatic change in South Korea's nuclear policy are beginning to gain traction. One of the nation's leading politicians is now calling for South Korea to arm itself with nuclear weapons. This bold proposal comes amidst increasing tensions with North Korea and highlights a growing shift from South Korea's historic policy of nonproliferation. Now, South Korea is bound by a nonproliferation treaty that it signed in 1975, which prohibited the development of nuclear weapons, but allowed them to conduct peaceful nuclear research. However, North Korea's persistent efforts to develop its nuclear arsenal, despite international condemnation, is leading Seoul to reconsider its stance.

Nakh Jong-won, a politician touted as a front-runner to lead the Conservative People Power Party, took to Facebook this week, arguing that South Korea must prepare to develop nuclear weapons in very short order. She wrote, quote, countries with the power to suppress external threats have survived, and called for the abandonment of the long-standing non-proliferation policy. Na's proposal hinges on what she calls, quote, international sanity, with cooperation between South Korea and the U.S. Naa's request for nuclear armament comes at a time of heightened tensions with North Korea, of course,

which signed a security treaty with Russia back in June when Putin and Kim Jong-un had a play date in Pyongyang. The treaty promised mutual assistance if either was attacked, deepening their alliance between the two nations and drawing alarm in Seoul. Additionally, North Korea has launched advanced missiles near South Korea and increased construction along the demilitarized zone, leading to a number of border incidents. The idea isn't just gaining traction in Seoul's halls of power. It's also becoming more popular with the South Korean people. A poll conducted by the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification in June found that 66% of citizens now believe the country should develop and deploy its own nuclear deterrent,

up from just over 60% last year. This sentiment is echoed in media with the Korea time, one of the most influential papers in South Korea, urging exploration of nuclear options. However, the nuclear proposal faces opposition domestically. Many argue that the U.S.-S., South Korea alliance suffices for deterrence and they warn of regional nuclear proliferation risks. Others suggest a referendum to settle the issue, though officials caution against oversimplifying such a complex decision. Yeah, let's have a referendum. All right, coming up. Growing tests in Barcelona, have locals taking aim at tourists with water guns. We'll have the details

in today's back of the brief. I'll be right back. USAA knows dynamic duos can save the day, like superheroes and sidekicks or auto and home insurance. With USAA, you can bundle your auto and home and save up to 10%. Tap the banner to learn more and get a quote at usa.com slash bundle. Restrictions apply. As the Krispy Chicken sandwich from 7-Eleven, people always call me loud. And I'm a Like, yeah, I know. I'm crispy. Did you expect me to whisper? If you want quiet, go eat some soup and reflect.

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Only at 711. Valley 362326, participating stores only while supplies lastly out for full terms. In today's back of the brief, a warning to tourists heading for Barcelona. of this summer. Well, bring a change of clothes if you plan on dining outdoors. A determined crowd of thousands of locals in the popular tourist destination, armed with water pistols, have been staging a protest against over tourism. They've doused unsuspecting tourists, enjoying meals on restaurant, patios, and cafes, and chanted, tourists go home. Well, that's not very welcoming. Local authorities estimated the protests had 2,800 participants, but organizers

claimed up to 20,000 people from 170 organizations took part. And that's a lot of water guns. The protest was organized by a group called the Neighborhood Assembly for Tourism Degrowth. Degrowth. I didn't know that was a word. A coalition of over 100 local organizations. The assembly is a response to growing frustration with the impact of tourism on the city, which includes a rise in the cost of living and the uneven distribution of revenue due to the millions of visitors staying overnight in the Barcelona region.

The protesters have presented 13 measures to curb tourism to local officials. Well, I think using the water guns and shouting at them is probably helpful in curbing tourism. They're calling for restrictions on accommodations, fewer cruise terminals, and an end to publicly funded tourism advertisements. In response to the protests, the Barcelona mayor pledged to end short-term apartment rentals for tourists by 2028 and to reserve 10,000 residents. units for locals, a move that aims to make housing more affordable for long-term residents. He even went as far as raising the daily tourist tax to $4.30 per visitor beginning in October. However, the mayor's stance has also drawn criticism, especially for permitting high-profile events

like the Louis Vuitton fashion show, ooh, that sounds posh, and the upcoming America's Cup sailing competition. How swanky is that? The protest in Barcelona reflects a broader trend of discontent seen in other Spanish regions, such as the Canary Islands, where locals cite rising housing costs and environmental damage. According to UN tourism, Spain was the second most visited country in the world last year. Now, no word on how they intend to replace those tourism dollars. Look, Barcelona is a great city, but if you're thinking about a vacation destination, you typically don't choose a place where locals are hostile and accost tourists as they visit and spend their money. Getting yelled at by a crowd of angry Spaniards armed with water guns, well, that's not on

my bucket list. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Wednesday, 10 July. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. To listen to the show ad-free, well, become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting pdb premium.com. And remember, the PDB is available on all podcast platforms, as well as our YouTube channel at President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Not loving your AT&T or T Mobile Bill? Yeah, we've been hearing that a lot. Good news. Bring your AT&T or T Mobile Bill to Verizon and we'll give you a better deal.

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