The President's Daily Brief - July 10th, 2026: The Revolutionary Guard Just Took Control Of Iran

Episode Date: July 10, 2026

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: Even as U.S. and Iranian forces continue exchanging strikes, a new power structure is quietly taking shape inside Tehran. We examine who is really running Iran following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—and why the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may now be the country's true center of gravity. We take you inside the Oval Office as new intelligence convinced President Trump to abandon the Iran ceasefire, prompting a return to military action against Tehran. Mexican authorities investigate whether the FBI played a secret role in the dramatic capture of cartel kingpin Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada, raising fresh tensions between Washington and Mexico City. In today's Back of the Brief, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sends NATO leaders home with one of the most unusual summit gifts in recent memory: engraved revolvers—and live ammunition. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Goldbelly: Impress your family and friends - get free shipping and 20% off your first order at https://GOLDBELLY.com with code PDB. Lean: Get 20% off plus free rush shipping when you go to https://TAKELEAN.com and use code PDB Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's Friday, the 10th of July. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, even as strikes between the U.S. and Iran continue, a new power structure is quietly emerging within the Iranian regime. We'll examine who is really calling the shots in Tehran. Later in the show, we're getting new insight into President Trump's decision to abandon the Iran's ceasefire. We'll break down the intelligence that convinced the White House that the regime could no longer be trusted. I'm sorry, was there someone in the White House who thought the regime could be trusted? It's not an epiphany to realize that the brutal, repressive Iranian regime can't be trusted.

Sorry if I'm beating that dead horse. Plus, Mexico was investigating whether the FBI played a secret role in the capture of one of the world's most notorious drug lords. And in today's back of the brief, one of the biggest stories to emerge from the NATO summit wasn't a policy announcement. It was the souvenirs. I'll explain while world leaders are flying home with engraved weapons. But first, today's PDB spotlight. Throughout the war, we suggested that one of the conflict's lasting consequences would be a fundamental shift inside the Islamic Republic, specifically that the death of Ayatollah al-Ihamini would leave the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of the IRGC as the country's true center of gravity.

New reporting from the Financial Times suggests that this prediction is proving correct. Hamidi was buried yesterday in the Holy City of Mashad, his birthplace, bringing an end to a nearly 37-year era in which he served as the central figure in Iran's political system. And it's hard to overstate how much of that system revolved around the deceased leader. Homanie was not just a country's supreme leader. He was the ultimate arbiter between rival factions, the final word on matters of war and diplomacy, and the man who presided over the growth of Iran's proxy network across the Middle East. He oversaw the expansion of the Revolutionary Guard, the IRGC,

and to one of the most powerful institutions in the country, with influence over security, foreign policy, intelligence, and major sectors of the economy. But now, well, obviously he's gone, and his son, Moshabakhamini, inherits the office. but not necessarily the authority that came with it. Not to mention, Moshaba is the clawed reins of Ayatollahs. Nobody has seen him since his installment as the new Supreme Leader. Moshaba has not appeared publicly since he was appointed Supreme Leader back in March, but even before taking power, he was a shadowy figure.

He lacks his father's revolutionary credentials, his decades of experience, and the personal authority that Ali Khomey built over nearly four days. decades at the top of the Islamic Republic. And yes, he's even rumored to be gay, which, and I'm sorry if this comes as a surprise to you, is frowned upon in a very repressive way within the Islamic Republic. regime officials and foreign diplomats insist Mushaba is in control, and they say his absence is due to security concerns. They also say he's recovering from injuries, sustained in the strike that killed his father and several members of his family. But whatever the explanation. The optics are extraordinary. Iran has a new supreme leader at a moment of national

crisis, yet he has not been seen in public for months. Now, in a system like Iran's, power does not simply sit on an organizational chart. It has to be exercised. It has to be demonstrated. And if Mushtaba is unstable or unwilling to rule the way that his father did, well, then other institutions will inevitably fill the space. The most important of those of those of course, is the IRGC. The Financial Times reports that analysts and officials now expect the Revolutionary Guard to play an even larger role in Iran's governing system. That means more influence over security, more influence over foreign policy, more influence over the economy, and more influence over the regime's response to both domestic unrest and pressure from the U.S.

In other words, Mostaba may have the final say on paper in a rubber stamping sort of way, but the IRGC is increasingly becoming the power center that makes the system work. We may already be seeing that dynamic in his first major decision. Last month, Mouhtaba supposedly authorized President Massoud Boschian to sign a memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin negotiations with the U.S. over a broader deal to end the war. But Mouhtaba also reportedly distanced himself from that agreement. In a written statement, he said he opposed the deal, quote, in principle, but allowed it to move forward because it had been approved by Iran's Supreme National Security Council, a body that includes senior military commanders and is chaired by the president. And that in itself is revealing. A strong Supreme Leader can own a controversial decision. A weaker one hedges.

Moshaba allowed the deal to proceed, but he made sure the political responsibility sat elsewhere. And that's exactly the kind of balancing act we should expect from a leader who lacks as father's authority and is dependent on more powerful institutions to govern. It also helps explain why Iran's behavior may become more complicated in the months ahead. There are some within the regime who understand that Iran needs sanctions relief, frozen assets, and some form of economic breathing room. But there are also hardliners who see negotiations with Washington as a betrayal of Ali Khomeini. legacy, especially while U.S. and Iranian forces are still trading military strikes. The RRGC has an interest in regime survival, of course. It has an interest in economic relief, but it also has an interest in preserving its own power, first and foremost, its regional networks,

and its role as the guardian of the revolution. That means that death of Ali Khomeini has not necessarily produced a weaker Iran, it may have produced a more militarized one. For Washington, That's a major strategic shift. The U.S. may no longer be dealing with a system dominated by one aging cleric who could settle disputes from above. It may now be dealing with a regime where the Supreme Leader remains somewhat important, but where the Revolutionary Guard has become the indispensable institution behind him. For decades, analysts described Iran as a theocracy with a powerful military. Today, well, today it may be more accurate to describe it as a military state with a the cleric symbolically positioned at the top.

All right, coming up next, we're looking at the intelligence that convinced President Trump that the Iran ceasefire, or sort of, ceasefire, was over. Plus, Mexico investigates whether the FBI secretly helped capture one of the world's most notorious drug lords, which begs the question, why would they care as long as he was captured? I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here, with a pro tip for everybody out there who loves delicious food. and who doesn't love delicious food?

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prompting, of course, a renewed U.S. military response. Now, we're getting a much clearer picture of what took place inside the Oval Office at the White House that convinced President Trump the agreement, well, such as it was, could no longer be saved. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump was preparing to leave the White House for the NATO summit in Turkey on Monday evening when Secretary of State Mark Arubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegeseth entered the Oval Office with reports of new Iranian attacks. Their message was straightforward. Iran had allegedly fired anti-ship cruise missiles and one-way attack drones at vessels attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz through a southern route. Three ships have been struck

within hours of each other, including a liquefied natural gas tanker from Qatar. As you'll recall, the June MOU was built around several key understandings, but one of the most important was freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. So when Trump was told that Iranian forces had struck three commercial vessels, he reportedly pressed his national security team on a more fundamental question. Did they believe Iran was actually serious about reaching a final agreement? in the end, Trump and his advisors concluded the answer was no. Now, frankly, that is not exactly an epiphany,

given the 47-year track record of bad faith negotiations on the part of the Islamic regime. Regardless, that appears to have been the moment that the ceasefire crossed from a fragile piece of paper to an effectively broken agreement. Within hours, as we've been tracking here on the PDB, the Trump administration began stripping away some of the agreements remaining in incentives. The president revoked Iran's oil-selling license, ordered renewed strikes against Iranian targets in and around the strait, and began publicly discussing a much wider range of military options. By the time Trump arrived at the NATO summit and in Ankara, Turkey, his language

had shifted dramatically. When asked about the future of the ceasefire, Trump said, quote, to me, I think it's over, end quote. He then went even further, saying he no longer wanted to deal with Iran's leadership, calling them, quote, liars, cheats, and sick people. Oh, and also scum. He referred to them as scum. Now, given the leadership had recently slaughtered thousands of their own citizens in an effort to crush popular protests, I honestly can't spot the lie in Trump's characterization. The president was reportedly irate over the latest attacks in the strait, seeing it as a slap in the face after extending an olive branch to the mullahs. The administration had paused negotiations for are weak while Iran held funeral ceremonies for Ayatollah al-Ihamenei. But as Trump said in Akura,

instead of using that time to preserve the agreement, the regime decided to, quote, start shooting rockets at ships, end quote. This breach of trust, if you can call it that, appears to have fundamentally changed the White House's assessment of Iranian intent. If Tehran was still serious about a final deal, then the U.S. could justify keeping this ceasefire alive, even after a provocation. But with the administration concluding Iran was simply using the agreement as cover to reassert control over the strait, the U.S. response shifted almost immediately, from limited retaliation to what a broader effort to further degrade the military capabilities the regime uses to threaten commercial shipping. Iran's subsequent attacks, targeting U.S. military facilities elsewhere in the region, well, they have only reinforced that assessment. As we discussed on yesterday's show, U.S. Central Command disclosed that American forces struck roughly 90 Iranian military targets during the second consecutive day of air strikes on Wednesday.

Those targets included air defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, missile and drone storage sites, naval capabilities, and logistics infrastructure along Iran's southern coastline. Now, I want to stress that it's this fundamental dispute over the strait that remains at the center of the crisis. The MOU promised free passage through Hormuz but left unclear who would control, coordinate, and police the route. That ambiguity now appears to have become one of the ceasefire's fatal weaknesses. U.S. officials say the Navy had been secretly helping commercial ships transit a southern route near Oman's coastline with vessels, often moving at night, turning off automatic identification systems, and staying in contact with the U.S. destroyer. Iran, however, was pushing ships toward a north-year-old. northern route closer to its own coastline and warning that the southern route was unsafe.

On Sunday, ships approaching that southern corridor reportedly received a radio warning from Iranian operators, saying, quote, our missiles and drones are ready to fire at you. Soon after, the attacks began. An Iranian diplomat later argued that the U.S. had violated the agreement by establishing a shipping lane that had not been coordinated with Tehran. But from Washington's perspective, that argument appears to have only reinforced the central problem. Iran was still trying to dictate the terms of passage through a waterway the U.S. insists must remain open to international shipping. And, of course, the economic stakes are enormous. Before the war, roughly 20% of the world's oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Even limited disruptions can send shockwaves through global energy markets and the

broader economy. Now, to be clear, the door to negotiations has not been completely closed. It's somewhat ajar. President Trump has continued to suggest that Iran could still return to the table if its leaders choose to do so, and Gulf allies are encouraging a resumption of negotiations. But after this week's attacks, convincing the White House that the Iranian regime can be trusted, well, that will prove to be extremely difficult, and rightly so. I want to shift south of the U.S. border, where for nearly two years, Washington has insisted that they played no operational role in the capture of one of the world's most powerful drug traffickers. Now, Mexico says it has reason to believe that that may not be true.

On Wednesday, Mexican authorities opened an investigation into whether the FBI secretly helped capture Senaloa cartel co-founder Ishmael El Mayo Zimbada inside Mexico, despite public denials from American officials. Now, you may be thinking, so what, if Mexico is investigating this? After all, this is the same government that says it had no idea how one of the most powerful cartel leaders on earth somehow ended up in U.S. custody. And that's exactly why this matters. Mexico is not just asking whether El Mio was captured, it's asking whether the U.S. carried out part of that operation on Mexican soil without permission and then denied it.

Now, to understand why this has become such a major dispute, we have to go back to what happened in July of 2024. For decades, Zimbada managed to avoid capture while becoming one of the most influential figures in the Sinaloa cartel. Then, in what prosecutors have described as a stunning betrayal, fellow cartel leader, Joaquin Guzman Lopez, the son of El Chapo, allegedly lured him onto a small aircraft under false pretenses before flying him to an airport outside El Paso, Texas. Now, the Mexican government says it was never informed of the operation in advance and has spent the past two years, repeatedly asking Washington for more information about exactly what role, if any, the U.S. played. At the time, U.S. officials insisted they had played no operational role.

Then U.S. Ambassador Ken Salazar repeatedly maintained that it was, quote, not our operation, later adding, quote, it was not our plane, not our pilot, and not our operation, end quote. According to Washington, authorities simply took Zimbada into custody after he arrived on American soil. Oh, look, who's here? But that explanation is now facing renewed scrutiny. The investigation was prompted by a report from a Mexican online news outlet, which published what it said was an FBI statement, claiming that agents had, quote, carried out the arrest and transfer of one of the U.S. government's highest priority fugitives. Mexican prosecutors say that the report, along with the additional evidence that they've recently gathered, suggests the FBI may have orchestrated or at least helped execute, the operation before Zimbada ever left Mexican territory. Then Mexican investigators found another piece of evidence that they weren't expecting.

And this is where then U.S. Ambassador Salazar's denial starts to run into an awkward detail. The very plain, he said was not America's, later ended up in FBI custody, and was loaned to a museum in New Mexico. A new report from the New York Times reveals that a display accompanying the aircraft identifies the mission by the codename Operation Air, Air Kings, and states that an FBI assistant special agent in charge and a supervisory special agent, quote, successfully executed a highly complex, secretive, and daring arrest of two of the world's most wanted fugitives, end quote. Even more damning, museum officials say that the description was provided by the FBI itself. Mexico's Attorney General says that if the new information is confirmed, it could constitute, quote,

a series of violations of Mexican and international law. along with what she described as, quote, a lie told by a U.S. diplomat. Oh, that would be shocking. The timing of all this is something I want to zero in on for a moment. President Trump has repeatedly pressured Mexico to do more to dismantle the cartels, extradite government officials accused of working with criminal organizations, and curb the flow of drugs north. At the same time, Trump has refused to rule out unilateral military action inside Mexican territory to target cartel groups. Mexican president, Claudia Scheinbaum, has firmly rejected that possibility, arguing that any unauthorized American operation inside Mexico would violate the country's sovereignty.

Coming up in the back of the brief, well, you never know what gifts you're going to find in a NATO summit swag bag, right? This year, NATO leaders reportedly went home with engraved revolvers and ammunition. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here, with a word about personal health and weight loss. Now, look, everybody's talking about weight loss injections because the results, frankly, have been so dramatic. They work by lowering blood sugar and reducing appetite. But what if you're looking to lose weight and you're not interested in painful weekly injections, especially when you hear about some of those intense side effects, right? Well,

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dot com. In today's back of the brief, NATO leaders left this week's summit in Turkey with an interesting parting gift. After the alliance wrapped up its two-day summit in Ankara this week, Turkish President Erdogan presented each visiting leader with an engraved revolver along with ammunition as his official parting gift.

Look at that. You get a gun and you get a gun. It was like an Oprah free-for-all, but with weapons. Strange. Well, strange, it was. but it wasn't random. Coinciding with the defense commitments from summit participants, Erdogan used the NATO summit to showcase Turkey's rapidly growing defense industry,

which has become one of the country's most important exports. According to the Geneva-based Small Arms Survey, Turkey ranked as the world's third largest exporter of small arms between 2019 and 2024, behind only the U.S. and Italy, right? Did you see Italy coming in at second? with roughly $3 billion in exports over that period. But the gift wasn't fresh off the export line.

Images released by Lithuania's Office of the President show what appears to be a rare vintage Gumasai, 357 Magnum, a six-shooter, produced by a Turkish state-owned defense manufacturer, MKE, during the 1990s. Each revolver was presented in a wooden case. Oh, that's nice, displaying both the Turkish and NATO flags. This sounds very posh, along with the... the plaque, reading, quote, the first revolver-type handgun produced in our country. That's a little

redundant. You could just say the first revolver handgun produced in our country in both Turkish and English on the display box. But that's where things became a little more complicated. Because while the revolvers make for memorable gifts, I'd like one, they also create an immediate logistical question. How exactly does a head of state fly home with a handgun and live ammunition? Well, they are heads of state, right? So it's not like an average citizen. Anyway, Belgium's prime. And only discovered the problem after landing back home, where authorities found the revolver and ammunition still inside his luggage. The firearm was immediately handed over to Brussels Airport Police for safekeeping.

He'll never see that again. British Prime Minister Kirstarmer, oh, this should be good, was actually the first leader to publicly mention the unusual gift, telling reporters aboard his flight home that he received 500 rounds of ammunition with his. Damn, seriously, 500 rounds? Well done, Erdogan. Polish President Carol Novrodsky, well, his revolver remained at Warsaw Airport awaiting customs clearance. It reflected a rather memorable diplomatic mishap from 2022 in Poland when Poland's police chief accidentally detonated, I kid you not,

an anti-tank grenade launcher inside police headquarters after bringing it home from Ukraine as an official gift. Polish officials insist there's little chance of history repeating itself. Well, that's a good thing. The Dutch government sent its revolver to its embassy in Ankara, where officials plan to permanently disable it. That sounds very Dutch, while Sweden's delegation also left its revolver with embassy staff. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney took a lighter approach, joking that his own diplomatic gift of maple syrup, who could have seen that coming, suddenly seemed, quote, undermatched. Well, here, look, I got you a classic handgun in hundreds of rounds of ammunition.

Oh, I thank you. Here's a pint of maple syrup. So, yeah, Carney's not wrong. It's a bit imbalanced as far as gifts go. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Friday, the 10th of July. If you have any questions or comments, I hope you do, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And of course, I know you've noticed this, but it is Friday.

And you know what that means. Tune in this evening at 10 p.m. on the first TV for our latest episode of the PDB situation report. You won't want to miss this one. You can also catch it on our YouTube channel at President's Daily Brief and, of course, on podcast platforms all over podcast land. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe.

Stay cool.