The President's Daily Brief - July 12th, 2024: Gaza Ceasefire Breakthrough, China Rebukes NATO, & US Hypersonic Missiles In Germany

Episode Date: July 12, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief:     Negotiators in the Middle East are reportedly making substantial progress towards securing a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, with one senior U.S. official saying a deal was "within reach." China is hitting back at NATO after the alliance condemned their economic support of Russia, accusing the U.S. and NATO of sowing seeds of discord across Asia. Russia is threatening to respond after the U.S. reached a deal at the NATO summit to deploy long-range missiles, including ones with hypersonic capabilities, in Germany. In our 'Back of the Brief' segment, China is once again stepping up their harassment of Taiwan in the South China Sea, conducting their largest aerial military incursion into Taiwanese airspace so far this year. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.     Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Go to blackout coffee.com promo code PDB for 20% off your first-time purchase. It's Friday, 12 July. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. In today's spotlight, negotiators in the Middle East are reportedly making substantial progress towards securing a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, with one senior U.S. official saying a deal was, quote, within reach. Okay. Now, we've heard that sort of optimism before over the past nine months, particularly from the U.S. side. So, I guess cautious optimism is the phrase of the day.

Later in the show, China is hitting back at NATO after the alliance condemned their economic support of Russia, accusing the U.S. and NATO of sowing seeds of discord across Asia. Oh. Plus, Russia is threatening to respond after the U.S. reached a deal at the NATO summit to deploy long-range missiles, including ones with hypersonic capabilities in Germany. And in today's back of the brief, China, speaking of sowing seeds of discord across Asia, well, they're once again stepping up their harassment of Taiwan in the South China Sea, conducting their largest aerial military drill so far off the island's coast. But first, today's PDB spotlight. We'll start off today with an update on efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza as negotiators appear to be making substantial progress

in ironing out the details of a truce, and the White House indicates they are, quote, cautiously optimistic, oh, there's that phrase, that a deal will be reached. An unnamed senior U.S. official exclusively told the Washington Post on Wednesday that major inroads have been made between Israel and Hamas, particularly regarding the terms of a proposed exchange of hostages and prisoners, as well. as well as the installation of a temporary governing structure in the enclave. The official said that a ceasefire deal is now finally, quote, within reach. The official noted, however, that they are still in the negotiating phase and a final deal is not necessarily imminent. As we've previously discussed,

the current ceasefire framework is a three-phase proposal that calls for an immediate six-week pause in fighting in the first stage in order to facilitate the release of Israeli hostages and the return of displaced people to their homes in northern Gaza. According to the senior White House official, Israel and Hamas have now ironed out the details of this first stage. Specifically, it will involve the release of 33 Israeli hostages who are still alive, including all remaining female captives, men over the age of 50, and any of those who are injured. Now, keep in mind, because Hamas has not provided any specifics about the current status or health of the remaining hostages, we really don't have a clear understanding as to how

many hostages do remain alive. In exchange, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and partially withdraw their troops from densely populated areas in the Gaza Strip. somewhat surprisingly, if the report is to be believed, both sides have also tentatively agreed on an interim governing structure for Gaza that would leave neither Israel nor Hamas in control of the enclave. This would come into play for the second stage of the ceasefire proposal, which calls for Israel and Hamas to negotiate a permanent end to the conflict. According to the anonymous White House official, both sides are ready to accept an interim governance plan backed by the U.S. and Arab allies that would put a group of about 2,500 supporters of the

Palestinian Authority in charge of administrative affairs in the enclave. He added that the local Palestinians in question have already been vetted by Israeli intelligence. Now, this would mark a significant breakthrough in negotiations, as there is frankly little love lost between the PA and Hamas. And on the Israeli side, Prime Minister Netanyahu had lost. opposed the inclusion of the Palestinian Authority in a post-war governing plan. As we reported last week, however, Netanyahu softened his stance regarding the PA just before sending Israeli negotiators back to the table. Notably, if negotiations in the second stage for a permanent ceasefire take longer than six weeks, the temporary ceasefire would be extended under the proposed

interim government. Additionally, during the second stage, Hamas has reportedly agreed to release the remaining male IDF soldiers being held hostage, while Israel would withdraw their remaining forces from Gaza. If this all goes off without a hitch, a potential third stage outlines plans for a multi-year reconstruction effort in Gaza. As we discussed earlier this week, hopes for a ceasefire were revitalized over the weekend after Hamas reportedly abandoned their demand that Israel commit up front to a complete end to the war. Hamas instead indicated they are content with written guarantees from mediators that Israel will

continue to negotiate a permanent ceasefire deal once the first phase goes into effect. The abrupt turnaround from Hamas caught many off guard, but U.S. officials say that it may have something to do with growing anger among Palestinians in Gaza towards Hamas for, dragging out negotiations for months to the detriment of the local population. Oh, you mean Hamas is not worried about the health and well-being of the local population? That is shocking. A senior U.S. official also told the Post that intelligence indicates Hamas is running low on ammunition and supplies. Whatever the reason, Western officials are hopeful that these negotiations will also help calm tensions along Israel's northern border with Lebanon, where there's

has been increasing concern that a full-scale war could soon break out between Israel and Hezbollah. In a statement on Wednesday, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said the Iranian-backed terror group would immediately stop their attacks on Israel if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza. Nasrullah said, quote, Hamas is negotiating on behalf of the whole axis of resistance. Oh, it's an axis of resistance. Whatever Hamas accepts, everyone accepts and is satisfied with. Well, let's not forget, that axis of resistance was built, funded, and resourced by the Iranian regime. So it's likely that any final plan will also need the Iranian Supreme Leader and the IRGC's tacit approval.

All right, coming up next. China is hitting back at NATO after the alliance condemned their economic support of Russia. Plus, Russia is threatening to respond after the U.S. reached a deal to debil. employ long-range missiles in Germany. We'll have those stories when we come back. Kayak gets my flight, hotel, and rental car right, so I can tune out travel advice that's just plain wrong. Bro, Skycoin, way better than points.

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As we discussed on yesterday's program, all 32 members of NATO signed a statement on Wednesday calling Beijing a, quote, decisive enabler of Russia's war against Ukraine and demanded that they immediately halt shipments of military technology to, Moscow. It was a rare public rebuke of China from NATO. China continues to claim, and with a straight face, neutrality regarding the war in Ukraine. And the NATO's statement is a sign that the West is increasingly losing patience with China's duplicitous diplomacy. China, to say the least, is not pleased. Oh, really? A spokesman from the Chinese Communist Party's foreign ministry hit back on Thursday, accusing NATO of seeking security at the expense of others and so in chaos around

the world. The Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said, quote, NATO hyping up China's responsibility on the Ukraine issue is unreasonable and has sinister motives. China urges NATO to stop interfering in China's internal politics and smearing China's image and not create chaos in the Asia-Pacific after creating turmoil in Europe, end quote. To be fair, you could substitute the mention of NATO with anything else, and the statement from the Chinese foreign ministry would always be that same statement. In other words, stop interfering in China's internal politics, stop smearing China's image, and of course the U.S. and the West have sinister motives.

Oh, she and his regime, well, they don't take kindly to constructive criticism because typically no one ever holds them accountable. China has backed Russia's contention that NATO, expansion fundamentally threatens Russia's security, and it's also growing concerned about strengthening ties between NATO allies and countries in the Indo-Pacific, such as Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea, who all sent delegations to the NATO summit this week in Washington. Still, the irony of the statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry was palpable, given that back in February 2022, just days before Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine, China and Russia agreed to a,

quote, no-limits partnership that many say has enabled Putin's aggression. China is credited with greatly accelerating the rebuilding of Russia's defense industrial complex, filling the gap left by former European trade partners to the tune of some $240 billion in 2023. That support has escalated to include the transfer of computer chips, advanced software, and technological components that have military applications. Now, despite the support, China has attempted to position itself as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia, even proposing a nearly universally rejected peace proposal earlier this year that would grant Russia up major portions of Ukrainian territory. So their recent military activity, along with their unwavering economic support of Moscow, well, that all betrays their claims

of neutrality. Earlier this week, seemingly timed with the NATO summit, Chinese troops arrived in Belarus for an 11-day joint military drill, just five kilometers from the border with Poland. Belarus, a key ally of Russia, hosts nuclear weapons on behalf of Moscow, and conducted tactical nuclear weapons drills with Russia in June. Recent reports also indicate that CCP-linked Chinese companies have begun manufacturing Iranian-style attack drones for Moscow. So, yeah, China is about as neutral when it comes to Putin's war as Putin. All right, staying with our coverage of NATO, an agreement between the U.S. and Germany to

deploy long-range missiles in Germany is drawing both praise and criticism. Proponents say it will bolster European security, while critics fear it mirrors Cold War escalation tactics that once brought the world to the brink. This move comes as Russia vows to counter the deployment, raising the specter of a renewed arms race. No, good. Just what we need to round out the summer, a renewed arms race. The agreement revealed during the NATO summit in Washington this week aims to deploy advanced missile capabilities to Germany by 2026, including SM6, Tomahawk, and developmental hypersonic weapons surpassing the range of current European arsenals. The decision to station these missiles in Germany is a part of NATO's

broader strategy to reinforce its eastern flank, particularly considering the, obviously, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Chancellor Olaf Schultz emphasized the necessity of the decision to ensure deterrence and alliance security. Neil Schmidt, a spokesperson for Schultz's Social Democrats, supported the move as a necessary step to deter Russian aggression. The opposition conservatives, who could be in power by the time the missiles are deployed, also endorsed the plan. However, Schultz's Greens coalition partners criticized the lack of communication about the decision, pointing out a contradiction with a recently negotiated budget deal. The far-right alternative for Germany and the leftist party opposed the deployment, citing concerns about

escalating tensions in a potential arms race. In response to the U.S. and German agreement, Moscow denounced the move as an escalatory provocation, vowing a response. Hmm, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov criticized NATO for intensifying tensions in Europe and inching its military infrastructure closer to Russian borders. Well, you know what intensifies tensions in Europe? Yeah, invading another country. Russian President Putin is now reportedly considering resuming the production of intermediate and shorter-range nuclear-capable missiles as the U.S. deploy similar missiles elsewhere in Europe and Asia.

This marks a significant shift following the 2019, U.S. withdrawal from the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. That was an agreement that previously banned such missiles with ranges between some 310 to 3,420 miles. As a countermeasure to Russia's potential rearmament, NATO Secretary General Jen Stoltenberg also revealed Wednesday that a new U.S. Air Defense Base in northern Poland, designed to detect an intercept ballistic missile attacks as part of a broader NATO missile shield is now mission ready. The base is part of the Aegis Assure system, which includes other sites, including in Romania on U.S. Navy destroyers based in Rota, Spain, and an early warning radar system in Kurdic, Turkey. Stoltenberg emphasized that

these moves are purely for security, stating, quote, as a defensive alliance, missile defense is an essential element for NATO's core task of collective defense. End quote. All right. Coming up, and speaking of increasing tensions, China is once again stepping up their harassment campaign of Taiwan in the South China Sea. I'll have the details in today's back of the brief. I'll be right back.

In today's back of the brief, global tensions continue to escalate as Taiwan's defense ministry identified 66 Chinese military aircraft in the skies around the island on Thursday, marking China's largest aerial encouragement. so far this year. Well, there's still several months left in the year, so they could probably bust that record. Of the 66 aircraft, 56 crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait, entering Taiwan's air defense identification zones. The aircraft presence comes only a day after Beijing reportedly conducted military drills with an aircraft carrier and 36 warplanes in nearby waters. For some context, over the past four years, China has steadily increased

pressure on the democratically governed island, which it views as part of its own territory. The median line, which was drawn by the U.S. in 1954, long served as an unofficial boundary, but the People's Liberation Army, the PLA, has been increasingly ignoring it as they continue to escalate their harassment campaign in the South China Sea. On Thursday, Taiwan's defense ministry released images of some of the planes used in the latest drills, which included a Chinese J-16 fighter and a nuclear-capable H-6 bomber. Additionally, seven Chinese Navy vessels were spotted operating around the island. In response, Taiwan deployed aircraft, naval vessels, and missile systems to monitor and react to the PLA's movements. This incursion coincides with an announcement

that Taiwanese president, Lai Ching-Tai is finalizing plans for his first overseas official trip since his inauguration in May, which could include a U.S. stopover, as confirmed by Taiwan's foreign minister. China considers the Taiwanese president a, quote, dangerous separatist, accusing his administration of pursuing greater independence. Now, the previous record for Chinese military planes around Taiwan was set in May when Beijing sent 62 military aircraft and 27 naval vessels during military exercises launched after Lai took office. However, that record, Well, it has an asterix next to it due to likely steroid use. The escalating rhetoric and military posturing underscore the growing geopolitical tensions in the region,

with both sides stepping up their military readiness and alliances. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Friday, 12 July. If you have any questions or comments or humorous anecdotes, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. The PDB staff loves getting your mail, your emails, your texts, your faxes, or you could hit us up on our beepers. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting pdb premium.com. It's literally that simple and a great value. And remember, if it's Friday, and I'm pretty sure that it is Friday, a new episode of our PDB situation report drops at 10 p.m. this evening on the first TV.

This week, we're talking the NATO-Situ. summit, Chinese spy bases on Cuba, Putin's war, and of course President Biden's brain. New episodes of the Situation Report show up on your doorstep every weekend and can be found on all podcast platforms, as well as our YouTube channel at President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money.

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