The President's Daily Brief - July 1st, 2026: What Happens If China Attacks Taiwan?

Episode Date: July 1, 2026

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: Could China actually invade Taiwan? Mike Baker examines the military, political, and geographic realities behind one of the world's most dangerous flashpoints. We explore the enormous challenges Beijing would face in launching an amphibious invasion—from crossing the Taiwan Strait and securing beachheads to sustaining a prolonged military campaign under the threat of U.S. intervention. Finally, we assess the conditions that could trigger a conflict, the warning signs intelligence agencies would be watching for, and whether an invasion is truly China's most likely path to reunification. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President's Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Goldbelly: Celebrate America’s 250th with iconic foods delivered—get free shipping and 20% off your first order at https://GOLDBELLY.com with code PDB. HomeServe: Protect your home systems from expensive repairs with https://HomeServe.com/dailybrief and get 50% off your first year of coverage. Acre Gold: Turn your pocket change into physical 24-karat gold and enter to win a limited-edition Hot Wheels gold bar at https://GetAcreGold.com/PDB Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Before we get started, a quick reminder that the latest episode of our premium series, the PDB dictator files, is out now. This week, we'll explore why so many dictators throughout history have become obsessed with immortality. Become a premium member of the president's Daily Brief to access to special content and an ad-free PDB experience. Just visit PDB Premium.com. It's Wednesday, the 1st of July. Oh, halfway through the year.

Time flies when you're dealing with... multiple global conflicts and crises. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. And today, we're continuing our series of special intelligence briefings, taking a brief step back from the daily headlines for the next couple of days to examine some of the biggest national security and geopolitical questions facing the world. It's a brief respite from the minute-to-minute daily headlines. Today, we're turning our focus to what many consider to be the next major global flashpoints. point, Taiwan, and we're asking the question, well, will China actually invade Taiwan?

It's a question that resurfaces whenever tensions flare in the Taiwan Strait, and they flare on an almost continuous basis these days. After Chinese military exercises across the island, well, after following major arms sales from the U.S., after visits by American lawmakers, or whenever Beijing issues another warning that reunification can't be delayed forever. In recent years, those concerns have only intensified. China's military has grown dramatically in size and capabilities. Chinese aircraft and naval vessels now operate around Taiwan with increasing frequency. PLA naval vessels are now on almost constant deployment around the island. Meanwhile, American military planners have repeatedly warned that Beijing may be accelerating preparations for a future conflict.

But before we can answer whether China could successfully invade Taiwan, we should first revisit how the island became separated from mainland China in the first place. To understand why Taiwan remains one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the world today, we have to go back more than 75 years, back to the aftermath of World War II. At the time, China was emerging from years, a brutal conflict against Imperial Japan. But even as that war ended, another struggle was entering its final phase, a civil war between two competing visions for China's future. On one side stood Mao Zedong and the Chinese Communist Party. On the other stood Chenkajek and his nationalist government, known as the Kuomintang.

The fighting had begun years earlier, paused during the Japanese invasion, and then resumed with full force after World War II. And by 1949, it was clear which side was winning. Mao's communist forces swept across the mainland, capturing city after city and steadily destroying the nationalist's ability to resist. Facing defeat, Chiang and roughly two million soldiers, government officials, and supporters fled across the Taiwan straight to the island of Taiwan. On October 1st, 1949, Mao declared the founding of the People's Republic of China in Beijing. But the nationalists didn't surrender. Instead, they established their government in Taiwan, where they continued. continued operating under the name Republic of China.

For years, both governments claimed to be the legitimate rulers of all China. Beijing insisted Taiwan was a rebellious province that would eventually be reunified. Taiwan maintained that it remained the rightful Chinese government and that the communists were the illegitimate regime. What might have happened next is impossible to know, but the Cold War quickly changed the equation. The U.S. viewed communist China as a strategic threat and eventually, became Taiwan's primary security partner. American military support helped ensure that Mao never attempted a large-scale invasion of the island. Several crises erupted in the Taiwan Strait during the 50s,

but none escalated into a full-scale invasion. Over time, the political realities evolved. Most countries eventually recognized Beijing as the government of China, including the U.S. in 1979. Taiwan gradually transformed from an authoritarian state into one of Asia's most vibrant democracies. And today, it governs itself, elects its own leaders, maintains its own military, and functions in nearly every respect as an independent country. But Beijing has never changed its fundamental position. The Chinese Communist Party, the CCP, still considers Taiwan part of China. Chinese leaders have repeatedly stated that reunification is inevitable.

And current Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, has made clear that he views reunification as an essential component of what he calls the, quote, great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Which brings us to the central question of today's briefing. If Beijing ever decided that the time had come to force reunification, how would it actually do it? But first, a quick reminder, we just released the third episode of our newest premium content series, the PDB dictator files. Now, this week, we explore one of history's strangest recurring obsession

of dictators, the quest for immortality. From ancient Chinese emperors searching for magical elixirs to Vladimir Putin's reported interest in cutting-edge longevity research to Dr. Evil's big-boy spaceship in cryogenic chamber, will examine why so many dictators become obsessed with cheating death. You can check that out now at PDB Premium.com. All right, coming up after the break, we'll examine why Taiwan may be one of the most difficult invasion targets on Earth, and why a war. that appears straightforward on a map, at least, could quickly become a nightmare for Beijing.

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straightforward military problem. After all, Taiwan sits just across the Taiwan. straight from mainland China. At its narrowest point, the distance is roughly 80 miles. China possesses the world's largest navy by number of ships, a massive missile force, and an army numbering in the millions. On paper, the balance of power would appear to favor Beijing. But maps can be deceiving. Because while Taiwan may seem close to China, it's also one of the most difficult military objectives on Earth. For decades, military planners have studied what a cross-strait invasion might look like, and the conclusion has been remarkably consistent. Even if China ultimately succeeded, the operation would be among the most complex and dangerous military undertakings in modern history.

The first challenge is the Taiwan Strait itself. Moving an invasion force across open water is one of the most difficult operations in warfare. Troops, armored vehicles, artillery, fuel, ammunition, food, and medical supplies all have to be transported across a body of water while under threat from enemy aircraft, missiles, naval vessels, drones, and submarines. Unlike an army advancing across land, an amphibious force is exposed from the moment that it leaves port until the moment it reaches shore. And reaching shore is only the beginning. Taiwan's geography strongly favors the defender. Much of the island's eastern coastline consists of steep cliffs and rugged terrain that are largely unsuited for amphibious landings. The western side of the island,

offers more potential landing areas, but those beaches have been studied for decades and would almost certainly be among the most heavily defended locations in the country. Even if Chinese forces managed to establish a foothold, they would then face Taiwan's mountainous interior. Nearly two-thirds of the island is covered by mountains, and that creates natural defensive barriers, of course, that would complicate any movement inland. Major cities such as Taipei, Tai Chiang, and Kaohsiung, could become sprawling urban battlefields, where defenders would enjoy significant advantages. Then there's the question of scale. Many comparisons have been made between a potential invasion of Taiwan and the D-Day landings in Normandy during World War II. The comparison,

of course, isn't perfect, but it illustrates the magnitude of the challenge. Any serious attempt to seize Taiwan would likely require hundreds of thousands of troops, thousands of vehicles, and a logistical operation on a scale not seen since the Second World War. And unlike the Allied landings and Normandy, Chinese forces would be operating under the constant threat of modern precision weapons. Taiwan has spent decades preparing for exactly this scenario. The island's military has anti-ship missiles, air defense systems, naval mines, and coastal defenses designed to make any amphibious assault as costly as possible. The goal is not necessarily to defeat China outright, but to make an invasion so difficult and so expensive and so costly that Beijing decides the risk is not worth

the reward. Of course, Taiwan would not necessarily be fighting alone. And one of the biggest uncertainties surrounding any invasion scenario is the role of the U.S. Washington maintains a policy known as strategic ambiguity, deliberately avoiding a clear statement about whether American forces would directly intervene in any conflict. And that uncertainty is intended to deter both the Chinese invasion and a Taiwanese declaration of formal independence. But from Beijing's perspective, the possibility of American intervention can't be ignored. Any invasion plan would have to account not only for Taiwan's military, but potentially for American naval forces, submarines, aircraft, cyber capabilities, and perhaps even support from regional allies, particularly Japan and

the Philippines. What begins as an invasion of Taiwan could rapidly become a much larger regional conflict. And that's why many analysts believe the greatest misconception about Taiwan is the idea that China simply needs to move troops across the strait and plant a flag in Taipei. The reality is far more complicated. All right, when we come back, we'll answer the question at the heart of today's briefing. If Beijing decided the time had come to force reunification, what would a Chinese campaign against Taiwan actually look like? More on that when we come back.

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Savings are compared to reneural price, void in Florida. Welcome back to the president's Daily Brief. So far today, we've explored how the Taiwan issue began and why a full-scale invasion of the island would be one of the most difficult military operations attempted in modern history. Which brings us to the question at the heart of today's briefing. If Beijing ultimately decided that peaceful reunification was no longer, longer possible, how might it actually try to bring Taiwan under its control? The answer is that a Chinese campaign against Taiwan would almost certainly begin long before the first troops stepped onto a beach. In fact, the opening phase might not look like a war at all. It would look a lot like

what's already happening. China would likely intensify efforts already underway today. Cyber espionage, influence operations, disinformation campaigns, economic pressure, and intelligence gathering. The objective would be to better understand Taiwan's military, identify vulnerabilities, shape public opinion, and create confusion about Beijing's intentions. Then, if a decision were made to use force, many analysts believe the first shots would be fired in cyberspace. Chinese cyber units would likely attempt to disrupt communications networks, government systems, financial institutions, transportation infrastructure, and military command and control networks. The goal would be to create confusion and slow Taiwan's ability to coordinate a response.

At the same time, Beijing would almost certainly launch a sophisticated information campaign designed to spread panic, undermine public confidence, and convince Taiwanese citizens that resistance was futile. Only then would the military phase begin. The world could wake up to reports of large-scale missile strikes targeting air bases, radar installations, and naval facilities, ammunition depots, and command-sense. centers across Taiwan. China's massive arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles has been built in large part with this scenario in mind. The objective would be to blind Taiwan's defenses, destroy aircraft on the

ground, disrupt communications, and establish air and maritime superiority before any invasion force left the mainland. At the same time, Chinese naval forces would likely move to isolate the island. And this is where things become particularly interesting, because a full-scale amphibious invasion may not be Beijing's first choice. Many military analysts believe China would attempt a blockade instead. Taiwan is an island nation heavily dependent on imported energy, food, and raw materials. A sustained blockade could place enormous economic pressure on Taipei without requiring Chinese troops to fight their way through heavily defended beaches and urban centers. Chinese warships, submarines, aircraft, and missile forces could attempt to restrict commercial shipping and create uncertain

about whether vessels could safely reach Taiwanese ports. Beijing might even pursue a more limited version of this strategy, sometimes described as a quarantine. Rather than formally declaring a blockade, China could announce inspections of vessels entering Taiwanese waters or establish exclusion zones around portions of the island. Such measures would create a difficult dilemma for Taiwan and its partners. Does the U.S. intervene immediately? Does commercial shipping comply? At what point does economic coercion become an act of war. These gray zone scenarios are attractive to China because they potentially allow Beijing to exert tremendous pressure while reducing the immediate risks associated with a massive amphibious assault. Of course, there is also the possibility that

Chinese leaders conclude that only a decisive military victory can achieve their objectives. In that scenario, after missile strikes and efforts to establish control of the air and sea, China would begin and moving troops across the Taiwan Strait. This would be the moment that military planners have spent decades studying. Thousands of vessels could be involved, including naval ships, of course, civilian ferries, transport vessels, amphibious assault ships. Airborne forces might attempt to seize key infrastructure. Special operations units could target government facilities and military headquarters.

Amphibious forces would push toward selected landing areas along Taiwan's western coast. But as we discussed earlier, getting ashore would be only the beginning. The real challenge, of course, would come afterward. Taiwan's military spent decades preparing for a scenario in which Chinese forces successfully established beachheads. Urban warfare in cities like Taipei could become extraordinarily costly. Supply lines across the strait would remain vulnerable. Every day the conflict continued would increase opportunities for outside intervention and would complicate Beijing's efforts to maintain momentum. And that brings us to perhaps the most important variable in any Taiwan scenario.

And that would be the U.S. No discussion of a potential conflict over Taiwan is complete without considering Washington's role. For decades, American policy has been deliberately ambiguous. The U.S. has never provided an ironclad security guarantee to Taiwan, but it's also never ruled out military intervention. Whether that approach would hold during an actual crisis is impossible to know. What we do know is that American military planners, Chinese military planners, and Taiwan's leaders all spent enormous amounts of time thinking about the same question. If a conflict begins, how quickly could outside powers respond, and how would their involvement change the balance of the fight?

Those questions remain unanswered because they've never been tested. And that's ultimately where today's discussion leads us. People often ask whether China will invade Taiwan. It's a reasonable question, of course, but it may not be the most useful, one. A better question is whether Chinese leaders believe they can successfully achieve their objectives at an acceptable cost. An invasion could succeed. A blockade could succeed. A coercive campaign might succeed, but every option carries enormous risks, not just for Taiwan, but for China. A failed invasion would be catastrophic for the Chinese Communist Party. A prolonged war could devastate global trade,

disrupts supply chains and draw major powers into a direct confrontation. Even a successful campaign would leave Beijing facing the enormous challenge of governing a population that doesn't want to be governed from the mainland. While nobody can say with certainty whether a conflict will occur, understanding how such a conflict might unfold helps explain why the Taiwan Strait remains one of the most consequential and potentially dangerous flashpoints on the planet. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Wednesday the 1st of July. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And if you love the PDB, and really, how could you not?

But would love an ad-free experience, well, that is eminently doable. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting PDB Premium.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe. Stay cool.