The President's Daily Brief - July 6th, 2026: U.S. Intel: Russia Preparing To Attack NATO Nation & Iran's Missing Leader

Episode Date: July 6, 2026

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: U.S. intelligence is warning that Russia may be preparing a military provocation inside Poland in an effort to test NATO's resolve. We break down the reported threat, what it could look like, and why officials in Washington and Warsaw are taking it seriously. Iran held a massive funeral for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but his successor, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, was notably absent. We examine what happened—and what it could mean for Iran's leadership transition. China is widening its pressure campaign against Taiwan, deploying coast guard vessels to waters east of the island in a move that expands Beijing's political and maritime presence. In today's Back of the Brief, authorities identify a Ukrainian woman as the prime suspect in a bombing in Monaco that reportedly targeted one of Ukraine's wealthiest businessmen and his family. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief ZBiotics: Go to https://zbiotics.com/PDBand use PDB at checkout for 15% off any ZBiotics probiotics. Acre Gold: Turn your pocket change into physical 24-karat gold and enter to win a limited-edition Hot Wheels gold bar at https://GetAcreGold.com/PDB Superpower: Stop guessing about your health—get $20 off Superpower at https://superpower.com/pdb with code PDB. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's Monday, the 6th of July. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. And for all you listeners in the U.S., I hope you had an excellent 250th birthday. And for England, well, I think the sting of losing the colonies was diminished somewhat by an outstanding World Cup victory yesterday over a terrific Mexico team to reach the quarterfinals. Well done. All right, let's get briefed. First up, a troubling new warning from U.S. intelligence. Russia may be preparing to provoke a direct confrontation with NATO by carrying out an attack on Polish territory. We'll have the details. Later in the show, the funeral for Ayatollah Ali Khomeini drew thousands of mourners and members of his family, but not the man who succeeded him as Iran's supreme leader. He's actually the clawed reins of Ayatollahs.

And I hope that classic movie reference is understood, at least by some. Plus, China is expanding its pressure campaign against Taiwan, sending Coast Guard ships to waters east of the island in a move that broadens Beijing's military presence. And in today's back of the brief, authorities have named a Ukrainian woman as the prime suspect in a bombing that shook Monaco and reportedly targeted one of Ukraine's wealthiest businessmen. Now, what are the odds that she was recruited by Russia's FSB? I don't know. Perhaps I'm just speculating. But first, today's PDB spotlight. According to multiple reports published late last week, the U.S. has reportedly warned Poland

that Russia may be preparing an armed provocation against NATO territory, a limited attack designed not to conquer territory, but to test the resolve of the alliance. Now, it's important to note that the White House has not publicly confirmed the intelligence assessments, but Polish leaders aren't dismissing them. Prime Minister Donald Tusk acknowledged the reports, saying Poland is preparing for, quote, various scenarios and warning that the coming months could prove critical. Meanwhile, Polish foreign minister Radoslav Sikorskyy delivered an unusually blunt message directed at Vladimir Putin. He said, quote, we know what you're planning. Don't do it, end quote. So what exactly are officials worried about? Well, according to reports, U.S. intelligence has

warned Warsaw that Moscow may be considering a limited military provocation on Polish soil sometime in the coming months. The goal wouldn't be to launch a conventional invasion of a NATO country. Russia doesn't have the forces available for that, while its military remains heavily committed in Ukraine. Instead, officials believe that the Kremlin could be looking for something much smaller and, well, much more ambiguous. One scenario, reportedly under consideration, is a drone strike against critical Polish infrastructure, perhaps in an electrical substation or power facility. Another involves a simulated air attack using decoy drones and spoof radar signals or missiles intended to force Poland to activate its air defense network without necessarily causing any

major damage. Perhaps the most concerning possibility is a small cross-border incursion by Russian or Belarusian troops launched either from Belarus or from Russia's heavily militarized Kalinandrad enclave. According to the reporting, Moscow could then claim the incident was of an accident, a GPS malfunction, a navigation error, or even a search and rescue mission involving an aircraft that supposedly strayed across the border. Honestly, they would say, we have no idea how our troops ended up in your territory. In other words, the operation would be supposedly designed to give Russia plausible deniability. And that raises an obvious question. Why would Moscow bother with such a limited operation?

Because it's really not about Poland. It's about NATO. The Kremlin's objective, reportedly, wouldn't be to seize Polish territory or begin a conventional war with the alliance. Instead, it would be to create an incident so ambiguous that NATO members begin arguing over whether Article 5, the Alliance's collective defense clause, actually applies. Remember, Article 5 states that an armed attack against one NATO, NATO member is considered an attack against all. It's only been invoked once in the alliance's history

following the September 11th terrorist attacks. But hybrid warfare complicates that equation. If a handful of unidentified drones strike a power station, if several armed men briefly crossed the border before withdrawing, if Russia immediately blames Ukraine or claims the incident was accidental, well, does that constitute an armed attack? Does NATO respond militarily? Or, does it spend days and days debating exactly what happened while Russia watches for any signs of division within the alliance? From Moscow's perspective, that uncertainty may be the point. A divided alliance is a weaker alliance, and if Russia can expose disagreements over when or whether NATO is willing to defend one of its own members, it could undermine the alliance's credibility without

ever firing the opening shots of a traditional war. There's another reason why Poland makes an a tragic of target. Since Russia's full-scale invasion began in 2022, Poland has become one of Ukraine's most important lifelines. Much of the Western military aid flowing into Ukraine passes through Polish territory. It's also one of NATO's strongest supporters of Kiev and has undertaken one of the largest military modernization programs anywhere in Europe. A crisis inside Poland could therefore accomplish two objectives at once. Test NATO's political cohesion while also disrupting, or at least complicating, the flow of military support into Ukraine. Over the past several years, European governments have accused Russia of steadily expanding its campaign of hybrid warfare across

the continent. That's included cyber attacks, GPS jamming, sabotage plots, suspected arson attacks, espionage operations, drone incursions, and efforts to map critical civilian and military infrastructure. Now, none of those actions individually triggered a military response, but together they've formed a sustained campaign aimed at probing Europe's vulnerabilities while staying below the threshold of open warfare. This latest intelligence warning suggests that Western officials believe Moscow may now be considering taking that strategy one step further.

Of course, none of this means that such an operation is inevitable. intelligence warnings are designed to prepare governments for possible scenarios not to predict the future with certainty. And Polish officials have been careful to emphasize that while they take the threat seriously, they're not urging the public to panic. So the greatest danger to NATO today may not be a massive armored assault across Eastern Europe. It may be a carefully calibrated incident, small enough to create confusion, but serious enough to force the alliance into answering the question that Putin may be a carefully calibrated incident, small enough to create confusion, but serious enough to force the alliance into answering the question that Putin may be hoping to answer. Will NATO stand together? All right, coming up next, Iran holds a funeral for Ayatollah al-Hamini, but his successor is nowhere to be

seen. And China opens a new front in its pressure campaign against Taiwan by sending Coast Guard ships east of the island. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, if you're like me, you and you enjoy. enjoy the occasional night out, right? But not the morning after. That's why I want to tell you about a game-changing product, Zbiotics pre-alcohol. It's the world's first genetically engineered probiotic, invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings. And here's the science behind it. When you drink alcohol, the alcohol converts into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's the buildup of this by-product, not just dehydration, that ruins your next day. Pre-alcohol produces an enzyme to break that by-product down.

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Welcome back to the PDB. Even as Iran attempts to demonstrate stability and strength and resilience after months of war, one unanswered question continues to hang over the Islamic Republic. Where is its new Supreme Leader? That's the question being asked this week as the Islamic Republic stages massive funeral ceremonies for slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamini. Now, reporting from Reuters details how tens of thousands of mortars continue to pour into the Iranian capital, and regime authorities say millions more are expected to join funeral processions over the coming days.

But for all the carefully choreographed images of unity, one of the most important people in the country never appeared or has yet to appear. State television showed three of Khomeini's sons, Mustafa, Meism, and Masud, praying beside five coffins displayed inside Tehran's Imam Khomeini Grand Mosala. You may remember their father and four other family members were all killed in the February 28th air strike that kicked off the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Missing from the ceremony, of course, was Moshabah Khomeini, the man who was selected to take his father's position as Iran's new supreme leader. Now, by itself, an absent appearance at a funeral might not seem particularly remarkable. But this isn't just any family member. This is the man now leading the Islamic Republic. And despite assuming power months ago, Iran has still not released a

single public photograph or video showing him. Reuters, citing people close to Mushtab's inner circle, reports that he suffered severe facial injuries along with significant damage to one or both legs during the same strike that killed his father and family members. Iranian officials have neither confirmed nor denied those reports. So, you ask, why does all of this matter? Well, because these ceremonies aren't simply about honoring Iran's long-time supreme leader. They also represent the Islamic Republic's first major opportunity to demonstrate that its leadership transition is under control, following one of the most significant crises in the regime's history. The ceremonies come just weeks after a four-month conflict that left Iran's theocratic regime, backed by the Islamic Revolutionary

Guard Corps, the IRGC, still in power, despite suffering one of the most significant blows in the Islamic Republic's history. Now, Tehran appears determined to project stability and resilience as it navigates its first leadership transition in more than three decades, which is why Mostab's continued absence stands out. Meanwhile, the multi-day funeral is underway. After lying in state for senior Iranian officials and foreign dignitaries, Ayatollah Khomeini's coffin was moved outdoors over the weekend. IRGC soldiers, seminary students, and civilians filed past the coffin, carrying Iranian flags, and banners, promising revenge against the U.S. and Israel. Iranian authorities planned a stage a week of mass funeral processions, mobilizing millions of mourners

before taking Khomeini's remains to several Shiai holy sites in neighboring Iraq. The funeral has also temporarily put diplomacy on hold. As we discussed last week on the PDB, President Trump confirmed that indirect peace negotiations with Iran have been suspended while the country completes the state funeral ceremonies. For now, Tehran is trying to show both its own people and the outside world that the Islamic Republic remains stable, despite the death of its longtime leader. But until Mostab al-Khamenei appears publicly, well, his continued public absence is likely to continue intense speculation about Iran's transition of power. All right, I want to turn now to Taiwan. We're

where China is once again increasing its pressure campaign against the self-governed island by expanding Coast Guard patrols off its eastern coast, as Beijing pushes its territorial claims beyond Taiwan's coastline into the surrounding seas. Now, if I told you another pair of Chinese Coast Guard ships was operating near Taiwan, that may not sound especially alarming. After all, Beijing has made these kinds of deployments increasingly routine, almost near daily. But Beijing isn't simply sending more Coast Guard ships to its usual patrol around the western part of the island. The latest actions mark another step in China's long-term effort to normalize its presence east of Taiwan

and to reinforce its claim that it controls not only the island itself, but the surrounding seas as well. China's Coast Guard announced Saturday that it had begun what it called, quote, law enforcement patrols in the Western Pacific, declaring that it would continue to strengthen law enforcement patrols, and waters under China's jurisdiction, while, quote, firmly safeguarding China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, end quote. By Sunday, Taiwanese officials said two Chinese Coast Guard ships were operating between roughly 80 and 140 miles off Taiwan's eastern coastline. Now, Chinese Coast Guard ships have operated there in the past, that's true, particularly during major military exercises. What's different this time is the stated mission.

Rather than supporting military drills, Beijing is conducting a standalone law enforcement operation, one that Taiwanese officials say is backed by explicit declarations that China claims jurisdiction over those waters. And that's where China's Coast Guard has become one of Beijing's most effective tools. Unlike the People's Liberation Army Navy and their Greyhold Naval Warships, the Coast Guard vessels allow China to pressure its neighbors while stopping short of outright military confrontation. Their large, heavily armed ships increasingly complement the PLA Navy's capabilities, giving Beijing another way to advance its territorial ambitions without firing a shot.

We've watched that playbook unfold across the South China Sea, where Chinese Coast Guard vessels have spent years, swarming disputed waters, ramming foreign ships, and blasting crews with high-powered water cannons. Now, Beijing appears to be reinforcing and extending that same strategy east of Taiwan. The waters east of Taiwan include one of the world's busiest commercial shipping corridors, and would almost certainly become a critical theater if China ever attempted to blockade or invade the island. Patrols like these allow Beijing to rehearse the kind of maritime operations that could one day support a blockade while stopping short of deploying the PLA's Navy. Taipei, for its part, is not accepting this new reality. Taiwan responded by dispatching its own

Coast Guard vessels to shadow the Chinese ships while rejecting Beijing's legal claims outright. Taiwan's Coast Guard administration vowed to, quote, take all necessary measures to force Chinese government vessels out of what it considers its national waters. Taiwan's mainland affairs council, likewise, argued China has, quote, no jurisdiction or related rights in the area, and therefore possesses. no authority to conduct law enforcement operations. Well, that dispute also extends well beyond Taiwan itself. The waters in question lie outside Taiwan's territorial sea but fall within maritime zones where Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines all assert overlapping rights to economic activity.

And that's a legal reality that Beijing increasingly argues it inherited through its claim of sovereignty over Taiwan. All right, and coming up in the back of the brief, Interpol has identified the prime suspect in a bombing that targeted it a wealthy Ukrainian businessman and his family in Monaco. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, let me ask you a question. When was the last time you dropped $10, $20 or $30 on essentially meaningless items? Well, probably several times a week, right?

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was a carefully planned assassination attempt. Nearly two weeks after a remote-controlled bomb exploded outside a luxury. apartment building in Monaco, authorities now believe the attacker disguised herself as a man before fleeing across multiple European countries. Now, investigators believe they know who they're looking for. Interpol has issued what's known as a red notice for 39-year-old Ukrainian national Anastasia Berzovska, alerting police agencies around the world to locate and provisionally arrest her while Moscow seeks her extradition. Although Monaco has not officially identified the victims, French and Ukrainian media report that the intended target was a Ukrainian-born businessman Vadim

Yolamalev, who is now a Cypriot citizen along with his partner and their 13-year-old son. Authorities say the family had been targeted as they returned home from dinner on the 29th of June when an explosive device detonated from a distance using a remote control tore through the lobby of their upscale apartment building near the Monaco-France border. The blast and flying glass seriously injured all three victims. Detectives initially believed that they were looking for a heavily built man, wearing a dark, long-sleeved shirt like colored shorts and a black bucket hat. But after reviewing additional CCTV footage from previous days and interviewing witnesses,

investigators say they realized the suspect was actually a woman who had deliberately disguised herself as a man before allegedly carrying out the attack. Authorities believe Berzovska last known residence was in Germany. According to Monaco's deputy public prosecutor, she then allegedly fled through France and into Italy in a rental vehicle in the hours after the bombing.

Forensic specialists in France continue analyzing remnants of the explosive device as investigators worked to determine who planned the attack, why one of Ukraine's wealthiest businessmen and his family were allegedly targeted and whether Berezovska acted alone or on behalf of others.

Well, here's a pro tip. she was acting on behalf of others. The bombing has rattled Monaco, a country better known for luxury yachts and casinos and billionaire residents, than for targeted acts of violence. Monaco's Prince Albert II condemned the attack as, quote, an odious act,

saying all public services had been mobilized to ensure security and aid in the investigation. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Monday, the 6th of July. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB, at thefirstTV.com. And if you happen to be Jonesen for an ad-free PDB,

well, we can make that happen. Just become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool.