The President's Daily Brief - July 8th, 2026: Russia May Soon Order A Massive Mobilization & Trump's F-35 Reversal

Episode Date: July 8, 2026

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: Troubling signs out of Moscow suggest the Kremlin may soon order another military mobilization. We examine why Vladimir Putin may be running out of volunteers, what a new draft could mean for the war in Ukraine, and why such a move could become one of the biggest political gambles of his presidency. President Trump signals he's open to restoring Turkey's access to the F-35 stealth fighter. We break down why Ankara was expelled from the program in the first place, what's changed, and why the proposal is already raising concerns among some of America's allies. A pair of bombings rocks Damascus during French President Emmanuel Macron's historic visit to Syria. We explain what the attacks reveal about the country's fragile post-Assad transition and why ISIS may be trying to derail Syria's return to the international stage. In today's Back of the Brief: The Pentagon appears to be reversing course on a previously canceled troop deployment to Poland, signaling renewed support for NATO's eastern flank amid continued tensions with Russia. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Superpower: Stop guessing about your health—get $20 off Superpower at https://superpower.com/pdb with code PDB. Goldbelly: Impress your family and friends - get free shipping and 20% off your first order at https://GOLDBELLY.com with code PDB. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here we go. Someone's already claiming this is our year. Someone else said that last year too. A round of Jameson, Ginger, and Lime arrives at a table. Smooth enough for kickoff, smooth enough for extra time. New friends pulling up a stool. Debates about whether that was a handball. Cheers rising like a roar around the room.

Because match days are about the shared moments. How did Jameson to your match day lineup? Jameson, it's what you bring. Please enjoy our products responsibly. wondered what dictators do in their spare time? Well, I'm sure you have. Come on. That's what we're exploring in this week's subscriber-exclusive episode of the PDB dictator files. From Kim Jong-il's obsession with Hollywood to Saddam Hussein's career as a novelist, it's a fascinating look at how absolute power turns personal hobbies into matters of state. You can listen by going to PDB premium.com.

Now more on that later, but first, let's get on with the PDB. It's Wednesday. It's Wednesday. Day the 8th of July. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, troubling signs out of Moscow suggest the Kremlin may soon order up another military mobilization, and that is a move that could carry enormous political risks for Vladimir Putin. Later in the show, one of NATO's biggest defense disputes may soon be over as President Trump considers restoring Turkey's access to the F-35. Plus, as Syria tries to convince the world that it's turning the page after Assad, a pair of bombings in Damascus threatens to pull the country right back into chaos. And in today's back of the brief, the Pentagon appears to be reversing course as a U.S. troop deployment to Poland that was previously canceled is suddenly now back on track.

But first, today's PDB spotlight. Vladimir Putin may be preparing to make one of the riskiest political decisions of his president, According to multiple reports from independent Russian media, the Kremlin is actively discussing another large-scale military mobilization as early as this October after elections to Russia's state Duma. No final decision has reportedly been made, but if it happens, it would mark the first nationwide call-up of reservists since September of 2022, and it would signal that Russia's current system for replacing battlefield losses is beginning to break down. That's because for nearly five years, Putin has managed to wage a massive war in Ukraine

while asking remarkably little of the average Russian citizen, particularly those in the major urban centers. Yes, of course, the Russian economy has been transformed by the conflict, and defense spending has soared, and sanctions have re-shaped daily life, and hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded. But for many Russians, living far from the front, life has continued with surprising normalcy. and that wasn't an accident. Since launching his full-scale invasion in 2022, Putin and the Kremlin have worked hard to keep the war at arm's length from much of the population. Rather than ordering another nationwide draft, Moscow has relied on generous enlistment bonuses, high military salaries,

prison recruitment, and volunteers from poorer regions of the country to replenish its ranks. The strategy has allowed Putin to continue the war without forcing millions of Russian families to confront it directly. Now, however, there are growing signs that the strategy may be reaching its limits. Multiple reports indicate that the flow of volunteers has slowed significantly over the past year, despite increasingly generous financial incentives. Independent Russian outlet Medusa, citing sources inside regional governments and Russia's presidential administration, reports that recruiting contract soldiers has become substantially

more difficult, with some military units struggling to meet their monthly quotas. The quality of recruits also appears to be declining. According to those reports, recruiters are relying more heavily on prison inmates, older men, and individuals with significant health problems simply to fill vacancies. Officials are also reportedly advertising support roles like drivers and construction workers only for recruits to sign standard military contracts that could ultimately send them straight to the front. There are also signs that recruitment tactics are becoming more aggressive. Radio Free Europe recently documented allegations from multiple Russian cities that military age men are being detained off the street, taken to

recruitment offices, and pressured into signing contracts for military service. Russian authorities deny those accusations, but the reports suggest the Kremlin is finding it increasingly difficult to persuade enough Russians to volunteer. All of this points to the same conclusion. Russia's manpower pipeline is undergrowing strain. And that is a serious problem for the Kremlin. Russia continues to inch forward in eastern Ukraine, but those gains have come at an extraordinary cost. Western intelligence estimates put Russian casualties well into the hundreds of thousands killed and well over a million total casualties since the invasion began.

At the same time, Ukraine's expanding drone campaign has made the battlefield increasingly lethal, destroying equipment, disrupting logistics, and inflicting losses far behind the front lines. To sustain the war at its current pace, Russia needs a constant stream of replacement troops. If volunteers are no longer enough, the Kremlin may conclude that it has little choice but to compel more Russians into uniform. Now, the timing of these reports is also worth noting. Several sources say any mobilization would likely come only after September state Duma elections. The elections themselves are tightly controlled, and their outcome is rarely in doubt, but delaying a deeply unpopular decision until after the vote, well, that would fit a familiar Kremlin playbook. There are other developments raising eyebrows as well. Last week, Russia unexpectedly announced the temporary closure of several railway border crossings with Finland, Estonia, and Latvia.

The Kremlin offered no explanation. Now, there are several possible reasons for those closures, including broader security concerns, concerns along NATO's frontier. But some analysts have suggested another possibility, preventing a repeat of the mass exodus that followed the 2022 mobilization when hundreds of thousands of Russians rushed to leave the country before draft notices arrived. It's important to stress that there's no evidence that the border closures are directly connected to mobilization plans, but taken alongside the growing rumors coming out of Moscow, they are certainly attracting attention. There's one final development that caught our eye here at the PDB. For years, the Kremlin insisted that Russia was conducting a special military operation in Ukraine. That's how they phrased it. In fact, ordinary

Russians could face criminal prosecution simply for referring to the conflict as a war. This week, however, Kremlin's spokesman, Dmitri Peskov publicly declared that the, quote, special military operation had become, quote, a real war, blaming increased Western support for Ukraine. Now, that may sound like a minor change in wording, but it's much more significant than it seems. Language matters in authoritarian systems, and for years, calling the conflict a war was treated as disloyal, even criminal. Now, one of Putin's closest spokesman is using that term. If the Kremlin is preparing the Russian people for another mobilization, it would first need to prepare them psychologically for the idea that this is no longer a

limited military operation, but a national war requiring greater sacrifice. We'll have to wait and see whether those rumors prove true. But if Putin does order another mobilization this fall, it will be an admission that the strategy he's relied on for years, keeping the war distant from everyday Russians, is no longer sustainable. And while it may provide the Kremlin with more soldiers, it would also bring the costs of the war home to millions of Russian families. And that may be the biggest gamble that Vladimir Putin has taken since he began his invasion. All right, before we go to break, a quick note, Our latest subscriber-exclusive episode of the PDB Dictator Files is out now, and this episode asks an admittedly somewhat odd question, what do dictators do in their spare time?

Well, it turns out some collect movies, some write novels, some rap on state television. But when the leader of an authoritarian regime develops a hobby, it has a funny way of becoming everyone else's business. It's a fascinating look at the private passions of history strongmen and what they tell us about living under the rule of a dictator. You can listen now, along with the rest of the PDB dictator files, by becoming a premium member of the president's daily brief, simply by visiting PDB premium.com. All right, coming up next, President Trump weighs sending F-35s to Turkey,

as terrorists try to plunge Syria back into chaos. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me ask you a question. Have you ever left the doctor's office feeling like you got nothing out of it. Now, you know what I mean? Just standard instructions to eat right and exercise. Oh, thanks for that. Well, that's why I want to tell you about superpower. It's a tremendous app that can help you stay on top of your health. One lab draw tracks over 100 biomarkers. Their app provides detailed information on your heart, liver, thyroid, hormones, metabolism, even your true biological age.

They send a licensed professional to your home or you can visit a nearby lab. Superpower tracks trends over a lifetime and everything lives in one digital place. paired with an actionable protocol of supplements and prescriptions ordered directly through the app. It's a concierge care starting at just $199 and it's HSA and FSA eligible. Unlock your health intelligence today. Make this the year you stop guessing about your health with superpower. For a limited time, our listeners get $20 off to unlock their new health intelligence. Head on over to superpower.com and use code PDB for $20 off your $199 Superpower membership.

And after you sign up, well, don't ask you how you heard about superpower. Do me a favor if you don't mind. Tell them the President's Daily Brief sent you. Visit BetMGM Casino and check out the newest exclusive. The Price is Right Fortune Pick. BetMGM and Game Sense remind you to play responsibly. 19 plus to wager. Ontario only.

Please play responsibly. If you have questions or concerns about your gambling or someone close to you, please contact Connects Ontario at 1-866-531-2600 to speak to an advisor, free of charge. that MGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with Eye Gaming, Ontario. Welcome back to the PDB. Leaders of NATO nations are meeting in Ankara, Turkey, and we now have our first major story from the summit. President Trump has signaled that the U.S. is prepared to restore Turkey's access to the F-35 stealth fighter program, and that's a move that would reserve one of the most significant defense policy decisions of his first term

and could reshape America's relationship with one of NATO's most strategically important allies. Now, speaking alongside Turkish President Erdogan on Tuesday, Trump said the U.S. would lift sanctions imposed on Turkey and would make a decision on allowing Ankara to purchase the fifth-generation fighter. When asked directly whether Turkey would once again be allowed into the F-35 program, Trump replied, quote, it's something we definitely would consider, adding that Turkey has been, quote, much more loyal than other countries that we think, think would be loyal, end quote. Hmm. If approved, it would mark a remarkable turnaround.

After all, it was President Trump who removed Turkey from the F-35 program back in 2019. So, you ask, what changed? Well, to answer that, we have to go back about seven years. Turkey had been one of the original partners in the multinational F-35 program. Turkish companies manufactured hundreds of components for the aircraft, and Ankara had already ordered dozens of the fighters for its own Air Force. But while participating in America's most advanced fighter program, Turkey also made another decision that alarmed Washington. It purchased Russia's S-400 air defense system. It's right, same time that it's buying the F-35, it's buying air defense systems from Russia, and that immediately raised red flags

inside the Pentagon. The concern wasn't simply that a NATO ally had purchased Russian military hardware. It was that this S-400 is designed to detect, track, and analyze advanced aircraft, including stealth fighters like the F-35. American officials worried that if Turkey operated both systems together, Russia could ultimately gain valuable intelligence about the F-35's radar signature, electronic emissions, and stealth characteristics. In other words, one of America's closest allies could help Moscow learn how to detect one of the world's most advanced fighter jets. The White House ultimately concluded that the two systems simply couldn't coexist. Turkey was expelled from the F-35 program, deliveries of aircraft were halted, and in 2020, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Turkey's defense procurement agency under the countering America's adversaries through sanctions act.

And you ask yourself, does that have an acronym? You bet it does. C-A-A-T-S-A. I don't know how you'd pronounce that, Katsa, perhaps. For years, the dispute has remained one of the biggest sources of friction between Washington and Ankara. Now, the Trump administration appears ready to revisit that decision. Vice President J.D. Vance revealed last week that the Pentagon has been reviewing possible ways to satisfy U.S. legal requirements while allowing Turkey back into the program. According to multiple reports, administration officials have explored several options, including transferring Turkey's S-400 systems to a third country,

disabling key components or otherwise ensuring that the Russian systems can no longer collect intelligence on the F-35. None of those options have been finalized and significant legal hurdles do remain. Congress passed legislation after Turkey's purchase of the S-400s that effectively blocks F-35 sales unless the administration certifies that Ankara no longer possesses the Russian system. Lawmakers from both parties are already signaling opposition to any deal that doesn't meet those requirements. There's another complication as well, and that would be Israel. According to Axios, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu recently urged President Trump not to approve the sale, arguing that providing Turkey with F-35s could erode Israel's longstanding qualitative military edge in the region.

Erdogan has become one of Israel's sharpest critics over the past several years, making the issue particularly sensitive in Jerusalem. Still, there are compelling strategic reasons for Washington to repair the relationship. Turkey occupies one of the most important pieces of real estate in NATO. controls access to the Black Sea through the Bosphorus Strait, sits at the crossroads of Europe, the Middle East, and the Caucasus, and hosts critical NATO military infrastructure. As the alliance continues to confront an increasingly aggressive Russia, keeping Turkey firmly anchored within NATO has become an even greater priority.

So, while this story may appear to be about fighter jets, it's really about something much bigger. It's about whether Washington is prepared to put one of the alliance's most contentious disputes behind it in order to strengthen NATO's southern flank. President Trump is clearly signaled that's the direction he'd like to go. Whether Congress and America's other allies agree, well, that's another question entirely. All right. Turning now to Syria, where the nation's post-Assad government may be facing its first major test after a string of bombings ripped through the Capitol. On Tuesday morning, two bombs exploded in central Damascus, just moments after French

President Emmanuel Macron, departed the Four Seasons Hotel, where he'd spent the night during a historic visit to Syria. The blasts wounded at least 18 people and cast a shadow over what was supposed to be a landmark moment for the country's new leadership. McCrone was not injured. His motorcade had already left for the presidential palace when the first bomb detonated. A second explosion followed minutes later, striking near an ambulance that had arrived at the scene, and that's a tactic often used by terrorist groups to target first responders and support. civilians as they rushed to help the wounded from the first explosion. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, but suspicion is already falling on ISIS. The terrorist organization declared earlier

this year that it was entering what it called a, quote, new phase of operations against Syria's new government. While ISIS has been dramatically weakened since losing its self-declared caliphate years ago, it has continued to operate through scattered cells capable of carrying out bombings and assassinations. And here's where the story becomes particularly interesting. Syria's new president, Ahmed al-Shara, is himself a former jihadist. During the country's civil war, he was aligned with al-Qaeda, before ultimately breaking away and leading the rebel coalition that toppled Bashar al-Assad late last year. Since taking power, however, Shirah has worked to reinvent himself, not as the leader of another insurgency, but as the head

of a functioning state. He's promised to protect Syria's religious and ethnic, and minorities, restore government institutions, rebuild the country's shattered economy, and normalize relations with the West. And those efforts have earned him cautious engagement from European governments and several Arab states, eager to see Syria stabilize after more than a decade of brutal civil war. ISIS, however, views that transformation as betrayal. The group has accused Shirav abandoning jihad, cooperating with Western governments and serving foreign interests. In its eyes, Syria's new leadership is no less an enemy than the Assad regime that came before it. And that brings us back to President Macron's visit. This wasn't simply a diplomatic courtesy call.

It marked the first visit to Syria by a sitting European head of state since Assad's government collapsed, and it was intended to showcase Syria's gradual return to the international community. Macron announced that France would deepen security cooperation with Damascus, potentially, including support from French Special Forces in the fight against ISIS. French companies also signed new commercial agreements, while Paris pledged to begin returning roughly 51 million euros in assets confiscated from Rafat al-Assad, the dictator's uncle. In short, France was signaling that it believes Syria is once again open for business.

The bombers appeared determined to send the opposite message. And this wasn't an isolated incident. Just last week, another bomb exploded inside. a crowded cafe in Damascus, killing at least six people and wounding nearly two dozen more. Like Tuesday's attack, no one claimed responsibility, though Syrian officials have likewise pointed toward extremist groups seeking to undermine the country's recovery. Taken together, the attack suggests Syria's new government is entering a difficult new phase. Analyst cautioned that ISIS has nowhere near the strength that it once possessed, and there's

little indication that these bombings threaten Shiraz hold on power, but they cautioned they don't have to. If the goal is to discourage foreign investment, scare away diplomats and convince the outside world that Syria remains unstable, and then attacks like these can have an outsized impact. All right, coming up in the back of the brief, with tensions on NATO's eastern flank still running high, the U.S. appears set to change course and send thousands of troops back to Poland. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here with a pro tip for everybody out there who loves delicious food, and frankly, who doesn't love delicious food. Listen, have you ever heard of a company called Goldbelly? Well, that's what I'm here to tell you about. Goldbelly ships America's most iconic foods from legendary restaurants straight to your door anywhere in the U.S. Seriously, it's that simple. Now, I've ordered all sorts of

of food from Goldbelly. Ribs, pulled pork, McLeon's lobster rolls from Maine, cupcakes. Everything shows up fast, perfectly packed, and absolutely delicious. It really is incredibly simple. Ordering is very easy. I've ordered from Goldbelly to feed folks at barbecues, game nights, poker evenings at the compound. The food's fantastic. Everybody's happy. Bob's your uncle. Come on, what's not to like? Goldbelly ships iconic Chicago deep dish pizza from Lou Malnoughties as an example, or New York cheesecake from juniors, Texas barbecue, meals from chefs like Ina Garten and Jose Andres. So if you're looking for that perfect gift, or maybe you just want to impress your friends and family, with an epic meal the next time you host and who doesn't want to do that?

Well, go to goldbelly.com and get 20% off your first order with promo code PDB. Once again, that's goldbelly.com code PDB for $20 off your first order. This spring, denim gets a softer, lighter update. Introducing Old Navy's drapey denim wide leg, a new fit that moves with you. It's everything you want denim to feel like for summer. Easy, breathable, and effortlessly cool. with a fit that creates natural movement and a wide leg that feels modern, not overwhelming.

Plus, that signature, wait, for this price, moment. Old Navy's drapey denim wide leg. Hey, y'all, it's Kelly Clarkson with Wayfair. Ever order furniture online and wonder, what if? Like, what if it doesn't hold up? That sofa was four days old. You should have ordered from Wayfair. With Wayfair, there's no what if.

Just style you love and quality you can trust. Visit Wayfair.ca.cair, every style, every home. A story we covered when it first broke appears to be reversing course. A U.S. troop deployment to Poland that had recently been canceled is now apparently back on. Poland's defense minister said this week that he received confirmation from U.S. officials that the suspended rotation will resume in the coming weeks. Back in May of this year, elements of the Second Armored Brigade Combat Team, First Cavalry Division, had already deployed to Poland when the Pentagon abruptly pulled the plug on the mission.

The decision caused real concern in Warsaw, of course, where leaders have been pressing Washington to maintain and ideally expand the U.S. military presence on NATO's eastern flank. Now, according to the Polish defense chief, that rotation is being restored. The Pentagon has not yet publicly explained exactly how it plans to fulfill the move or which units will be sent, but the suspended deployment was believed to involve a Fort Hood-based armored brigade, meaning nearly 5,000 soldiers and their families could once again be preparing for a nine-month rotation overseas. This also follows President Trump's recent statement that he wanted to send 5,000 troops back to Poland. Some lawmakers have been pressing the Pentagon

for answers, accusing defense officials of moving too slowly after the earlier drawdown. Congressman Don Bacon, a Republican from Nebraska, said last week that the administration had directed a brigade be sent back to Poland, but that in his words, quote, nothing has happened. Now, Polish officials say something is happening. There are a few ways now that the Pentagon could do this. One option would be to shift some forces from Germany, where the U.S. is still expected to reduce troop numbers by around 5,000. Another possibility is a renewed armored brigade rotation directly into Poland. Longer term, Washington and Warsaw are also discussing a permanent American base in Poland.

Polish officials say they're prepared to spend around $3 billion U.S. dollars to make that happen. though building the facilities needed to host thousands of American troops and their families would likely take years. And that gets to the bigger debate here. For more than a decade, the U.S. Army has relied heavily on rotational deployments along NATO's eastern flank. And that gives Washington flexibility and avoids the cost of permanent basing. But repeated nine-months deployments are also expensive, disruptive for families, and can wear down readiness over time. So this is not just a personnel move. a signal. At a moment when Russia is still grinding through its war in Ukraine and is also increasingly testing NATO responses through hybrid tactics, Poland wants reassurance. NATO's eastern flank wants reinforcement, and Washington appears to be reconsidering just how

much military weight it wants forward deployed in Europe. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Wednesday, the 8th of July. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at BDB at thefirsttv.com. if you're wondering what an ad-free PDB might look like or sound like, well, we can make that happen. Just become a premium member of the PDB by visiting PDB premium.com. It's really that simple. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today, still from the road, with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool. If you want a $3,000 a month payday for life, what would you feel free to do? Maybe take a long weekend, every weekend?

Or try a bunch of new hobbies? Would you feel free to upgrade and listen ad-free? Don't worry, we get it. Every $20 ticket could win you $3,000 a month for life and supports life-saving cancer research at the Princess Margaret. Feel free to buy your payday-for-life ticket today. Raffle number 155-2194. Please play responsibly.