The President's Daily Brief - June 16th, 2022. Joe Biden Lies About the Causes of High Gas Prices. China Uses Smartphones to Punish Protestors.

Episode Date: June 16, 2022

It’s June 16th. You’re listening to the President’s Daily Brief. Your morning intel starts now. ------ First up, Joe Biden said yesterday that oil and gas prices are up because oil companies aren’t doing their part, they’re not being patriotic. Which is pretty bold for him to say. We’re going to talk about why he said it, and whether he’s right. As always, I’m keeping an eye out for developing stories. Put these two on your radar. First, China is cracking down on protestors using a cell phone technology that’s being used in New York State too. We’re going to talk about that. Second, if you’ve had COVID before, there’s a remarkable study out that says your natural immunity lasts longer than someone who’s been vaccinated. We’ll dive into those details.  ------ Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of the President's Daily Brief. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's June 16th. You're listening to the President's Daily Brief. I'm your host and former CIA Officer Brian Dean Wright. Your morning intel starts now. The brief you're about to hear is in the same spirit of the actual President's Daily Brief, which is a top secret summary of the most critical events in the past 24 hours, all delivered to the President each day by the nation's spymasters. And so, ladies and gentlemen, I am your spy and this is your brief. Here's what we're going to be talking about this morning. First up, Joe Biden said yesterday that oil and gas prices are up because oil companies aren't doing their part. They're not being patriotic, which is pretty bold for him to say.

So we're going to talk about why he said it and whether he's right. As always, I'm keeping an eye out for developing stories, put these two on your radar. First, China is cracking down on protesters using a cell phone technology that's being used in New York State as well. We're going to talk about that. Second, if you've had COVID before, there's a remarkable study out that says that your natural immunity actually lasts longer than someone who's been vaccinated. We'll dive into those details. All up next on the President's Daily Brief.

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dive into whether or not he's right. And if you were president, how we might think about smart energy policies and a time of record inflation. So let's get started. First, Joe Biden said that oil companies are making record profits, and they're not spending any of it on either new drilling or expanded production. And instead, these companies are just giving that profit back to shareholders. Biden also made a second accusation that oil refineries, those are the folks that take the oil and turn it into gas and diesel and such, well, they're just sitting on spare capacity. And that's because they're trying to jack up prices so they can make more money. So let's unpack all those accusations.

But before we do, let's pause and reflect on something that's pretty incredible. Joe Biden, along with Kamala Harris and the Democrat Party, they have spent years saying that the oil and gas industry needs to be put out of business because of climate change. So it's remarkable that these very same people are now demanding that the oil and gas industry increase production, increase drilling, increase refining, all for more carbon-polluting energy. What's more, and I want you to listen to this, White House spokesperson Karin Jean-Pierre said yesterday that refiners have a quote-unquote patriotic duty to increase gas and diesel supplies. Well, that suggests that they're being unpatriotic now by not doing more, which again,

just very incredible based on who's saying it. But nevertheless, let's get back to the fact-checking. First, are oil and gas companies making record profits? Yes, they absolutely are. But why? Well, part of the answer is our COVID response that lasted two years. And then the other part is the invasion of Ukraine. So let's quickly summarize that first bit. COVID lockdowns meant that there was a massive crash in demand. And in response, oil and gas companies laid a whole bunch of people off. And they also closed refineries. Well, now that the lockdowns are off and demand is back, it's taking time to rehire those furloughed people and even more time to rehab all those dormant refineries,

if they rehab them at all. And that's because those refineries are really expensive to operate, and their profit margins are historically pretty small. Second, the Russian invasion, let's talk about that. We all know absolutely that that is affecting oil and gas prices. And that's because fundamentally we have less supply from Russia, the same demand globally, more or less, and all that means higher prices. And so that's part of the reason why oil and gas companies worldwide are making big bucks right now. But be clear here, they're not setting the price, but they are absolutely profiting from it. And it's important to remember here that even as we acknowledge the influence of the war in Ukraine, oil and gas prices were skyrocketing well before Russia's

invasion. So this isn't just a Putin price hike, even though Joe Biden really likes to claim that it is. So look, the point here is that oil and gas companies are absolutely making big money. That's true. And it's also true that they're not spending a whole bunch of that profit on exploring new oil wells or expanding pipelines. But then again, why would they? As I briefed you on just moments ago, as well as on Monday, we all know that their industry is going to be killed off, or so, so says Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and all the other folks who believe that climate change is real, and it's going to kill the planet unless we kill the oil and gas industry. So naturally, these companies are not going to invest heavily in building out their future businesses

when DC tells them there is no future in their business. Okay. Let's move on to Joe Biden's second accusation, and that is that refineries could be doing more, but aren't. In other words, there's lots of spare capacity. to make more diesel and more gas, but refiners are purposely not doing so, all in order to jack up prices and make more money. Well, here's what the data show. U.S. refineries on the East Coast

are running at a 98.3% capacity. On the Gulf Coast, you guys are at 96.5% capacity. And on the West Coast, it's still high at 94% capacity. In other words, refineries are firing on all cylinders. Joe Biden is just flat out wrong to say that refineries are sitting on their hands. The data just doesn't support him. More to the point, some refineries, they're actually delaying maintenance just so that they can keep pumping out more product. Here's an example. The oil and gas company Valero, they just canceled a planned 30-day maintenance shutdown at their Memphis

refinery, all so that they could continue to meet demand. Now, the other big piece here, and it's something that I briefed you all on Monday. America no longer has the refining capacity that it once had. In the 1980s, we had over 250 refineries. And today, that number is 124. All right, let's recap this brief. Yes, it's absolutely true that the oil and gas industry is making hand over fist of money right now. But it's not because they're jacking up prices like Joe Biden is basically alleging. It's because the market is bonkers, and it's all because of supply and demand issues. We've got tight supply because of COVID hangovers, basically, and the war in Ukraine. Plus, there's been this jump in demand because we're all out enjoying our lives now, because the COVID lockdowns are over.

Now, this second accusation by Joe Biden, that refineries aren't operating at peak capacity, well, it's just absurd. The data make clear that that is just not true. So all of this begs the question, what exactly is going on here? Why is the president lashing out like this? Well, I suspect that one likely reason is as follows, although you are welcome to disagree. I think it's because Joe Biden has a midterm election coming up and his approval numbers are in the toilet. A recent poll shows that he's got support of only 38% of America. An additional polling for his party actually shows that they're in the dumps too. In fact, if the election were held today, Republicans would win in a landslide. So naturally, Joe Biden needs a boogeyman. And, you know, look, let's be fair.

Every politician does this exact same thing when things get bad. But still, we have a country to run, and we have an economy to save. So if you were the president this morning, and we could have a thoughtful conversation about America's energy policy, here's what I'd say. Whatever your view on climate change might be, the fact of the matter is the technology to run our economy on renewable energy isn't ready. I spoke with you on Monday about that. So for now, what you need to tell the American people and the oil and gas industry is that we have to make fossil fuels work. So drill, explore, build those refineries if we can. Because we are probably talking about a couple of decades before renewable alternatives are ready at a scale to take over, if that's the

smartest thing to do at the time. Now, that doesn't mean that we shouldn't build renewable energy plants or encourage research and development into things like solar energy. I mean, one of the most incredible power generators that we know of is the sun. And if the right technology comes along and we can scale it, then great. Because I'll be honest with you, it would be nice not to have to deal with smog or exhaust, or to worry about polluting water if we drill too close to an aquifer, or we have a spill in the ocean. But we're just not there. So let's stop with the attacks on the oil and gas industry. Let's work with those companies to produce more here in America, safely and cleanly, because we have an economy that's diving into a recession. And we owe it to the American

people to be honest and to get this right. Coming up, a closer look at what's on my radar. As always, I'm watching a few other stories this morning. Put these two on your radar. First, maybe having a smartphone is a really dumb idea. And that just might be the key takeaway from this next brief. You see, if you're in China right now and you want to get on a bus or an airplane or even just leave your house, you have to upload your COVID vaccination status and the last time that you were tested. Once you do that, and if you followed all the rules, you get a green light, literally. Your phone lights up with a green light and what's called a QR code.

It's sort of like an airplane boarding pass, lots of black dots and lines. But if you've skipped a vaccine dose or your latest COVID test is a few weeks old, well, you get a red light. And that means no buses or taxis, no restaurants or movie theaters. You are locked in. your home until you get that additional dose or a new test. Now, put aside whether you think that's a good idea or a bad idea in terms of managing COVID. Because the story here is how that tool, that power, is being abused. You see, a few weeks back, there was a bank in rural China that

basically went bust, about $1.5 billion lost. And if you had an account, your money was gone. Well, not surprisingly, some account holders got really angry, and they went to the bank to get what they could or just to protest. But when they did or when they tried, their phones went from green to red. Now, they had had the vaccine, and they had been tested frequently. So they should have been fine, but clearly the Chinese government switched their phones from green to red, and that prevented these many people from going to the bank. So obviously the Chinese government was watching them closely and dictating where they could go and what they could do, all using this COVID app on their smartphone.

Well, I think that you can probably see the problem here. These passes were only supposed to ensure COVID compliance. But now these smartphones have been turned into life passes. In other words, if you do something that the government doesn't like or you might do something, they're just going to shut off your ability to live on a whim. Now, obviously that should be of great concern because that sort of power and that sort of system is going to be very tempting for any government

that wants to better control its people. And in fact, in this country, we have a very similar COVID-like pass system. In New York State, for instance, they have what's called the Excelsior app, and it lets you find and store your proof of vaccination on your phone. And if New York's records match yours, you get a green light, a QR code, which again is sort of like a digital boarding pass for an airplane. And once you get that green light, you can go out wherever you want. And people, businesses can scan your QR code to make sure that you're in compliance.

Well, that's a very scary thing if the governor of New York or the president of the United States wants to flip a switch, you know, shut off that QR code for some reason other than COVID compliance. not because they should, but because they can. So the point is that this technology is worth watching very closely. And I defer to you if we should even allow it on our phones at all, no matter the reason. Because if your ability to enjoy life, to even have a life, if all that can be controlled by the flip of a cell phone switch, well, that's a really frightening development. That is the end of liberty. So this is a story that I will be keeping a very close eye on.

Finally, if you've had COVID before, I've got an important study for you that says your natural immunity actually lasts longer than someone who's been vaccinated. That's one of the key findings that was published in the New England Journal of Medicine yesterday. Researchers from the country of Qatar studied just over 100,000 people who were infected with the Ammocrine variant last winter. These scientists were looking at different combinations of people. to see who did best and who did worse under various circumstances. So, for instance, what if you were fully or partially vaccinated, but you'd never been infected before? How did you do with Omicron? Or what if you were previously infected, but you didn't get the jabs? Or finally, what if you'd been previously infected and you got at least one or two shots?

In other words, these researchers were trying to figure out which combination was the most effective in terms of avoiding symptomatic infection or hospitalization and death. So let's talk good news. Regardless of vaccination status or prior infection, rates of hospitalization and death from COVID from this variant were very low. And that's exactly what we would expect, because that's what the data has long told us to be true. I've shared that with you all on the PDB in the past. But still, they've found some stuff that's really interesting.

For instance, the least effective option was being fully vaccinated without a previous infection. In other words, immunity from vaccination collapsed within weeks to months after injection. Now, better yet was to have a previous infection, or in other words, natural immunity, with no shots or no vaccine. Now, that showed about a 50% protection and that that natural immunity stayed at that nice level for well over a year from your infection. So, all told, natural immunity is real, and it's pretty durable. Finally, the researchers did find that the strongest degree of protection seemed to be a previous

infection plus some number of shots. But again, to re-emphasize, the rates of hospitalization and death with Omicron were very low, regardless of vaccination status or prior infection. And again, that's exactly what we would expect. COVID is a serious virus, but it is very much manageable for the vast majority of people who contract it. Now, as always, your risk might be unique, and you should always talk to your own doctor about what's best for you. Because obviously, Brian and the PDB are not the last word here. But the data, both this study and combined with other data that I provided you in the past,

well, it reminds us that we should all have a choice when it comes to getting vaccinated. Because as always, it's our body, it's our risk, and it's our choice. And that, ladies and gentlemen, concludes your morning brief. As always, we close out the show reminding each other of why we are here, talking about our country and our world. It's the creed of every good spy and every smart American. It's from John chapter 8, verse 32. And you shall know the truth.

And the truth shall make you free. Good day. Thank you.