The President's Daily Brief - June 19th, 2024: Iran’s Nuclear Countdown, South China Sea Collision, & Putin in Pyongyang

Episode Date: June 19, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: We examine an alarming new report about Iran’s nuclear program, which suggests that the Islamic republic has a much shorter runway to a bomb than previously believed. We’ll turn to the South China Sea, where a recent collision between Chinese and Philippine vessels is escalating tensions between the two nations and testing America’s support for its ally. The latest developments from Vladimir Putin’s trip to Pyongyang amid ongoing North Korean aggression at its border with South Korea. In the Back of the Brief, Russia’s nuclear-powered submarine Kazan is on its way home after several days of military drills off the US coast. Its brief visit to the western hemisphere was capped off by some embarrassing photos showing the vessel has fallen into disrepair. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. We'll start today's show by examining an alarming new report about Iran's nuclear program, which suggests that the Islamic Republic has a much shorter path to a bomb than previously believed. Later, we'll turn to the South China Sea, where a recent collision between Chinese and Philippine vessels is escalating tensions between the two nations and testing America's support for its ally. Plus, we've got the latest from Vladimir-Belphemy, Putin's trip to Pyongyang. And in today's back of the brief, Russia's nuclear-powered submarine

Kazan has left Havana after several days of military drills off the U.S. coast. Its brief visit to the Caribbean was capped off by some embarrassing photos showing the vessel has fallen into disrepair. But first, today's PDB spotlight. We'll kick things off today focused on Iran, as U.S. intelligence agencies issue a warning that the Western assessment of the Islamic regime's nuclear program may be fundamentally flawed. The concern centers around a finding by U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies that Iran has acquired and employed a computer modeling program that can be used for the research and development of nuclear weapons. Unnamed officials called the activity, quote, suspicious and alarming. Yeah, that would do it, noting that such a program could play a critical

role in weaponizing enriched uranium stores and ultimately assembling a bomb. That's according to an exclusive report by Axios. How Iranian scientists are currently using the modeling program, well, that remains unclear at this time, but some officials warn that it could upend longstanding U.S. assessments regarding Iran's nuclear program. Up until this point, the U.S. has said that there was no evidence that Iran was pursuing weaponization, despite the regime's continued enrichment of uranium, which they claim is for civilian purposes. Well, if they claim it, I'm sure it's okay. Richard Goldberg, who served under former President Donald Trump as the director for countering Iranian weapons of mass destruction, told Fox News, quote, for years now, the intelligence community

has assessed Iran is not actively working to build a nuclear weapon, that it might be building out the assembly line for fissile material, but that we had no indication of active weaponization work. If true, this new report would upend that assessment and suggest that Iran has a shorter runway to a bomb than previously reported, end quote. Senior officials from the U.S. and Israel will meet at the White House on Thursday this week to discuss the development, and that's their first meeting regarding Iran's nuclear program since March of 2023. It appears that members of the intelligence community are split on the implications of Iran's activity. Some anonymous officials told laxios that it was a mere, quote, blip on the radar that likely doesn't represent a major shift

in the regime's nuclear doctrine. Another official added that at this time, the official U.S. intelligence assessment on Iran's nuclear ambitions remains unchanged. Other anonymous officials, however, said it suggested that Iran may be actively engaged in weaponization, which would fundamentally contradict the long-time U.S. intelligence consensus that they ended weaponization. work in 2003. As we've discussed regularly on the PDB, Iran has large stores of 60% enriched uranium, putting them very close to the 90% threshold that is considered weapons grade. They've been reportedly speeding up their enrichment in recent months, increasing their supply by at least 20 kilograms since February, bringing their total supply to 142 kilograms. Now not to get too far

to the weeds, but Iranian regime would need roughly 42 kilograms of 90% enriched uranium to build one bomb. Experts have said it would likely take them only a few weeks to convert their existing 60% uranium to the 90% threshold. Still, enrichment capabilities aside, weaponization does take time, but depending on the implications of the latest intelligence, that process could already be underway. Goldberg, Trump's former advisor on Iran's weapons program, explained to Fox News, quote, The administration pegged that to be around 18 months, while the Israelis said a year or less. But if weaponization work is already going on, if the computer modeling is already being perfected, well, that timeline may be far shorter, end quote.

The report comes less than a week after the UN nuclear watchdog warned that Iran is installing additional centrifuges to expand their uranium enrichment capacity, at two underground sites. The International Atomic Energy Agency, the IAEA, also warned that Iran continues to block international oversight of their nuclear facilities. The Iranian regime, for its part, has long claimed that their nuclear program is for civilian purposes in that they have no plans on creating a nuclear bomb. Well, I don't know about you, but if the number one state sponsor of terrorism

and the instigator of much of the instability in the Middle East, says they have no plans to create a nuke. I don't see why you can't take them at their word. But in an ominous sign, officials in Iran have pivoted from their usual nuclear rhetoric in recent months to openly discussing the possibility of changing their nuclear doctrine from civilian to military. It's also worth remembering that the former head of Iran's nuclear agency suggested earlier this year that Iran has all the component parts to immediately build a nuclear device, but that they are currently in a disassembled state. All right.

Coming up after the break, the U.S. is sending a warning to Beijing after a series of confrontations between China and the Philippines and the South China Sea, and Russian President Vladimir Putin touches down in Pyongyang for his summit with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un. I'll have those stories when we come back. Welcome back. Now, for the latest from the South China Sea, where an incident between the United States, China and the Philippines has raised concerns over Beijing's expansionist activity in the region. On Monday, several Filipino Navy personnel were injured, one seriously, after a Chinese vessel

collided with their ship, which was on a resupply mission in the region. The Philippine military said the Chinese ship had engaged in a, quote, intentional high-speed ramming, causing significant damage to the vessel. It was the most serious confrontation between the Philippines and China in recent memory, according to a report from NBC News. news. The scene unfolded in the disputed waters of the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, which lies in the Philippines' 200 nautical mile maritime zone. China has long claimed those waters as their own and have been increasingly harassing the Filipino Navy in recent months to assert their claim. Their activity has the international community on edge, particularly

due to long-standing U.S. security obligations in the region. Under the 1951 mutual Defense Treaty, the U.S. must come to the Philippines defense if they come under attack. Much like the current situation with Taiwan, there is concern that China's harassment campaign in the South China Sea could end up pulling the U.S. into a direct conflict with Beijing. On Tuesday, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell reaffirmed those security commitments, chastising China for their belligerent behavior, saying the communist regime's, quote, dangerous actions threatened regional peace and stability, end quote. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller underscored that the terms of the treaty,

quote, extend to the armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels or aircraft, including those of its coast guard, anywhere in the South China Sea. Unsurprisingly, officials from China put the blame squarely on the Philippines. Well, that is unsurprising, claiming that the vessel ignored repeated warnings and dangerously approached a Chinese vessel, ultimately causing the collision. Experts in the Philippines, however, contend that the incident was a calculated attempt at provoking a military response. A journalist with a local Philippine-Star newspaper told Fox News, quote,

the Chinese are intentionally taunting the Philippines, which Beijing needs to justify an escalation, end quote. The incident comes at a time of increasing tensions in the South China Sea, as the Chinese Communist Party aggressively pressed their territorial claims over nearly the entire region, encroaching upon the waters of the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam. All right, turning our attention to Pyongyang, where Russian President Vladimir Putin has arrived for a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, marking his first visit in nearly 25 years. As we've been reporting, the meeting is meant to tighten relations between the two

regimes and began with both nations promising to assist each other, in avoiding U.S.-led sanctions. Since 2019, both leaders have been working together to pivot from Western economic systems, developing independent trade and payment networks, and particularly in sectors like energy and technology. While Putin is in town, the pair are set to sign several key documents, including the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement, which is meant to create deeper cooperation across multiple sectors. Of course, the leaders are undoubtedly, also discussing further arms exchanges, which has North Korea's neighbors to the South, well, naturally worried.

A spokesperson for South Korea's foreign ministry emphasized that Seoul is urging Moscow to ensure that any collaboration with North Korea does not, quote, proceed in a direction that violates UN Security Council resolutions or undermines peace and stability in the region, end quote, well, too late for that. North Korea stands to gain advanced tack from the deal, which could seriously improve its military strength and its surveillance capabilities. Putin's visit comes as tensions between the North and South are running high after a series of events in the demilitarized zone between the two nations. South Korea reported that North Korean soldiers accidentally crossed the DMZ on Tuesday

while apparently fortifying the border, prompting South Korean forces to fire warning shots. This incident, the second and two weeks, involved about 20 to 30 North Korean troops advancing into what is essentially no-man's land. The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff revealed that since January, North Korea has been intensifying its military presence along the DMZ, laying mines and constructing possible anti-tank barriers, activities that have resulted in multiple North Korean casualties from landmine explosions, though detailed casualty figures were not provided. This surge in aggressive border activities aligns with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's sharp rhetoric against South Korea and has moved away from pursuing peaceful reunification.

And finally, Russian naval exercises in the Caribbean, well, they've come to an end, but not before some embarrassing photos of one of the supposed crown jewels of Russia's naval fleet emerged. I'll have the details in today's back of the brief. Kayak gets my flight, hotel, and rental car right, so I can tune out travel advice that's just plain wrong. Bro, Skycoin, way better than points. Never fly during a Scorpio full moon.

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It's calling your name. Save on the stay. Oh, and free waffles are yours to claim. Book direct at storeshotels.com. In today's back of the brief, as we've highlighted here on the PDB, Russia has been busy over the past week conducting military exercises off the coast of Cuba. Well, this week saw an end-to-the-five-day drills, which involved Russia's stealth nuclear-powered submarine, the Kazan, and several other vessels. Now, the Kazan is considered one of the crown jewels of Russia's fleet. It's part of the Yasun M class of nuclear-powered guided missile subs, known for their advanced technology and capability.

and designed to go toe-to-to-tow, supposedly, with anything that the U.S. can deploy. However, several photos of the submarine that were snapped while it was in Havana Harbor are probably going to cause some embarrassment in the Kremlin and could raise serious questions about just how well Moscow's Navy is being maintained. The images show significant hull damage on the Kazan, including gaping holes where tiles appear to be missing. The tiles have a special coating and are applied to the hulls of submarines and other ships to reduce their acoustic signature and enhance their stealth capabilities.

They're designed to absorb sonar waves and minimize the reflection of these waves back to the source, thus making the vessel more difficult to detect by enemy sonar systems. However, the tiles, well, they don't do much good, when they're not there. Maureen Marcus, a data scientist from the Netherlands, commented on LinkedIn about the submarine's deteriorating condition, suggesting, quote, its soundproofing panels are falling off, meaning the stealth sub is likely very loud underwater and lights up on sonar. Now, before we get too critical of the Russian Navy, it's worth noting that these coatings, these tiles, face significant engineering challenges, needing to adhere in extreme environments where submarine hulls flex and undergo temperature changes. It's a complex material

science issue, not unlike the tiles required on the old NASA space shuttles. Despite the high-tech construction of submarines, maintaining the integrity of these stealth coatings, well, that remains a persistent problem among most navies. H.I. Sutton, a maritime security researcher, reports that the U.S. and Royal Navy also experienced issues with their stealth coatings. The Russian defense ministry, well, they've yet to comment on the situation. Embarrassing photos notwithstanding, the Kazan departed Havana, and although its next destination is unclear, U.S. officials said that it could stop in Venezuela in the coming days. And that, my friends, is the PDB for Wednesday, 19 June.

If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And as always, if you want to listen to the show ad-free, be sure to check out our premium membership at PDB premium.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back this afternoon with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Ryan Reynolds here for MintMobil with a message for everyone paying big wireless way too much.

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