The President's Daily Brief - June 20th, 2022. The War in Ukraine Could Go On for Years. A Left-Wing Terrorist Wins Power in Colombia.

Episode Date: June 20, 2022

It’s June 20th. You’re listening to the President’s Daily Brief. Your morning intel starts now. ------ First up, the War in the Ukraine could go on for years. That is the latest assessment from NATO leadership. I’ll explain why that means a very big bill for American taxpayers. As always, I’m keeping an eye out for developing stories. Put these two on your radar. First, a former left-wing terrorist just won the presidency in Colombia. We’re going to discuss how his leadership there could affect gas prices here. Second, China launched a drone ship last week, and the design looks an awful lot like ships from the US Navy. How suspicious. We’ll talk about it.  All up next on the President's Daily Brief. ------ Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of the President's Daily Brief. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's June 20th. You're listening to the President's Daily Brief. I'm your host and former CIA officer Brian Dean Wright. Your morning intel starts now. The brief you're about to hear is in the same spirit of the actual President's Daily Brief, which is a top secret summary of the most critical events in the past 24 hours, all delivered to the president each day by the nation's spy masters. And so, ladies and gentlemen, I am your spy and this is your brief. Here's what we're going to be talking about this morning. First up, the war in Ukraine, could go on for years. That is the latest assessment from NATO leadership. I'm going to explain why that means a very big bill for American taxpayers. And as always, I'm keeping an eye out for

developing stories. Put these two on your radar. First, a former left-wing terrorist just won the presidency in Colombia. We're going to discuss how his leadership there could affect gas prices here. Second, China launched a drone ship last week, and the design looks an awful lot like the ships from the U.S. Navy. How suspicious. We're going to talk about that. All up next on the President's Daily Brief. First up this morning on the PDB, you probably saw the headlines on Saturday. NATO's Secretary General Jan Stolenberg said that the world should get ready for the long haul in Ukraine. We must prepare, he said, for the fact that it could take years to win in Ukraine. So that assessment is a really big deal because it signals to not just Russia, but the rest of the

world that there is no immediate hope for peace, and that instead we should prepare for what's called a war of attrition. So for this brief today, I'm going to explain what that means, this war of attrition, and what it'll likely cost you and your family. Plus, if there's any way for us to avoid this kind of warfare. So let's start first with understanding what exactly we're talking about here, and that is a war of attrition. And it's a military strategy where basically neither side has a distinct advantage. So they both try to just very slowly and methodically wear each other down. In this case, Putin thinks that he can outlast Ukraine with more fighters, better weaponry, and a stronger will to endure. You know, Ukraine's Zelensky thinks that he can do, well, exactly the same. So the question is,

who's right? So there are a lot of different ways to answer that question. So let's just focus on two. Let's look at weaponry and fighters. So let's start with the equipment part first. The very blunt truth here is that Ukraine does not have the ability to buy or produce more weaponry, but you do. Starting from January of this year through June 7th, the United States and all of us taxpayers have contributed more military and financial assistance to Ukraine than all other countries in the world combined. So the exact number is a little bit squishy.

For instance, how much has been pledged versus how much. has been actually delivered, but the total is anywhere between $40 and $60 billion in just six months. So if this war goes on for years, like NATO's chief is promising, and our support matches what we've done to date, well, you as taxpayers could be quite easily spending $100 billion annually in Ukraine. And that's more than we spend on the entire Department of Homeland Security defending America. And it's about seven times more than all of Border Patrol. And just to put a fine point on this, our spending so far in Ukraine is more than all European countries combined, which is curious because it's in their backyard. Now, there are a couple of reasons for this, probably. The biggest one,

in terms of why there's not more weaponry coming from Europe into Ukraine, well, it's because the militaries of Europe are a shell of what you would think them to be. They are poorly trained. They are terribly equipped, all because they've had years of neglect. So they really don't have much equipment to give, or at least none that's particularly great. So the point is, in this war of attrition, it's going to be you, the American taxpayer, who are going to be the ones helping the Ukrainians grind on to match Russia. So one quick final note on this weaponry issue, and that is training.

So we can send Ukraine all the weaponry that they want or that we want, or that we want, but that doesn't mean that they can be trained quickly on it or taught how to maintain it. And in a war of attrition, that's a really big deal. You need smart personnel to both operate it and tend to it and take care of it continuously. And that actually brings up the second challenge of this war of attrition. And that is, who can outlast the other in terms of manpower? Is it Ukraine or Russia? Well, there's a lot of debate on this right now, but in just the past two weeks, Ukraine is losing a lot more of its fighters as compared to the Russians. And to the point, President Zelensky is said that his country is losing anywhere between 200 and 500 fighters a day.

One of his government officials actually said that that number was closer to a thousand a day. So that means that even with the most conservative estimates here, we're talking about 6,000 dead Ukrainians every month or 72,000 dead a year. So meanwhile, on the Russian side, it is true that Moscow took very heavy losses at the beginning of the war, probably 10 to 20,000, maybe more, we're not real sure. But they have paired those losses back and they're actually fighting a war that they're more accustomed to now, unfortunately. And that means fewer losses. So the translation of all of that is that most observers see that Russia has a slight edge on this issue of manpower in no small part because if push ever came to shove, they have a lot more men back

home that they could ultimately draft if they absolutely had to. But let's take a step back for a second, because if Ukraine starts to run out of professional soldiers before Russia does, well, who steps in? I mean, where will those additional fighters come from when Zelensky looks around and says, help? Because remember, Europe's military is a shell of what it used to be. So I think you can probably see where this is going to go. America could be compelled to step in with our soldiers, with our war fighters. At least that's clearly the risk of a war of attrition that the West decides that it just can't lose.

All right, let's summarize this brief so far. Here's what we know. In this Ukraine-Russia war of attrition, the only way that Kiev stands a chance at surviving is that you, American taxpayer, are going to foot the financial bill for their weaponry and their training. Plus, as I briefed you on previously,

you are also going to have to prop up the entire Ukrainian government. You're going to have to pay salaries and pensions of government workers who've lost their jobs. Or you're going to have to send in diesel and seed and fertilizer all to the farmers because obviously their economy is wrecked. And all of that support, the all-in amount, is going to be about $100 billion annually, give or take, for years. But as we provide all that cash and all that weaponry, at some point Ukraine may run out of fighters.

probably before Russia does, although that's not a guarantee at this point. Still, if that does happen, Europe won't have the soldiers to step in, but we will. And we'll have our pride and hundreds of billions of dollars invested too. And you can all see where the risk of this could go. So what do we do about this? What would you do? Well, my counsel to you, if you were in the White House this morning, is to remind you of the word spoken by President Zelensky himself.

This war ends by diplomacy, not in a war of attrition years from now, with God only knows how many millions dead from either the war itself or the global starvation that we have talked about so much here on the PDB. And yet, Russia is not interested in going to the negotiating table, and that's because they think that they can win this war of attrition. So our challenge is to figure out what pushes, Putin to ask for peace, to sue for peace, as they say. Well, I have an idea. It's risky and it is very unconventional, but it comes from the wisdom of President Jack Kennedy and an old military

strategist named Sun Su. But before I share it, here's what we're going to do. I want you to email me with your ideas. Again, the challenge here is, how do we get Russia to the negotiating table when they think they can win? In other words, they don't have any motivation to come talk. And I'm going to read some of your responses on Friday. And then I'm going to give you my idea. So the email address, as always, is PDB at thefirsttv.com. Again, that's P as in presidents, D as in daily, and B as in brief at thefirsttv.com. So stay tuned on this one.

We're going to have a lot of fun with it. Coming up, a closer look at what's on my radar. As always, I'm watching a few other stories this morning. and put these two on your radar. First, the country of Columbia, and South America has a new president this morning, and after this brief, he's going to probably make you a bit nervous. But before I tell you why, let's talk about why you should care. So did you know that the U.S. sends about $450 million in aid to Columbia each year?

And that comes in the form of military assistance and economic aid and some anti-narcotics programs related to cocaine. Plus, trade between our countries is actually pretty sizable. our companies and factories send about $22 billion worth of goods and services every year to Columbia, while they send us about $18 billion worth of stuff back. Now, we all probably know about Colombian coffee. That actually makes up about $1.2 billion a year. But of much greater importance is oil.

And that accounts for around $9 billion of trade. And that oil is really important, generally and right now, especially as we all know. because if we were to lose that supply, it could push up our prices even higher for gas and diesel. And unfortunately this morning, that's something that we now have to worry about, all because this new president is a devout proponent of stopping climate change. So the man's name is Gustavo Petro. And what's incredible about him is he is a former member of what's called the M19 terrorist organization. And he actually spent time in prison for it back in the 1980s.

In fact, a month after authorities locked in mind, His terror group actually attacked a government building, and he slaughtered about 100 people, including 11 Supreme Court magistrates. Well, he and his terror movement were pardoned an peace deal, and then that started his political journey that has now ended in the presidency. Petro has said that he is a big fan of Bernie Sanders, and like Bernie, he has promised a bunch of free things to a bunch of people. So, for instance, he's promised free universal college.

And he's also said that he's going to seize private pensions. and then he's going to take all that money and force everyone into a state-run retirement system. Now, of all the concerns that one might have, it's his promise to ban all new oil projects and cancel all fracking that's getting him a lot of attention both here and in Columbia. Now, he's said that he will leave existing production alone for now. But he has made absolutely clear that he wants to replace his oil and gas industry with tourism. He thinks that he can get another 10 million tourists a year, and that'll make up for all the oil and gas industry jobs. We shall see.

For what it's worth, President Elect Petro has said that his terror days have been absolutely misunderstood, and that while he still considers himself to be a revolutionary, he was really just expressing his passion for true democracy. So all of this gives a lot of people some flashbacks to the very early days of the country next door, and that's Venezuela. All as that country turned from a capitalist society to a socialist one under a man named Hugo Chavez. So as you can imagine, I'll be keeping an eye on this and update you accordingly because the very last thing that our economy needs right now is another oil shock. Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is California's number one entertainment destination for today's superstars. Catch the Jonas Brothers return to the Yamava theater stage on April 30th, the powerful vocals of Demi Lovato on May 17th,

and the signature Southern Country Rock of Eric Church on July 19th. Tickets on sale now at Yamava Theater.com, only at Yamava Resort and Casino, celebrating its 40th anniversary. UN must be 21 to enter. Last up this morning, we're getting our first look at a drone ship out of China that can actually sail without a crew and will almost certainly be used for anti-submarine and intelligence purposes. But before we dive into what we know, let's refresh our memories for why we care.

So as I briefed you all on previously, China is making very aggressive moves in the South Pacific to sign deals with island nations to either build or use their ports. And that's all in an attempt to expand their naval capabilities and to exert control over the region. And then eventually get their military assets ever closer to Hawaii. A drone ship would obviously be very helpful for them to have deployed at one of those Pacific ports. And obviously that would not be good for us. So keeping all of that in mind, let's talk about this Chinese drone ship. So we don't know a lot.

Obviously, the Chinese government is keeping a tight lid on things, but it successfully completed initial C trials about a week ago. In other words, it could drive itself without crashing or sinking and was able to return to port all on its own. So based on that modest success, it'll likely move forward with some additional testing in the months to come, and hopefully we're going to get better eyes on it. Now, longer term, if this ship moves forward, it could conduct intelligence operations, it could hunt for submarines, or it could even fire missiles or be part of a sea-based missile defense

system. Now, this ship is actually an attempt by China to catch up with us, with our U.S. Navy, and our drone ships, which are called the Sea Hunter and the Seahawk. Now, Sea Hunter launched back in 2016, and a couple of years later, it actually and incredibly sailed autonomously, completely by itself, no crew, from San Diego to Pearl Harbor and back. That's a round trip of more than 5,200 miles. Pretty incredible. One last thing. The Chinese drone ship looks remarkably like the sea hunter. Now, some observers are calling at a cheap knockoff, but still, it wouldn't surprise you all to learn that China stole or copied our technology,

because as I previously briefed you on, Beijing is relentless in trying to grab our most prized technology through either hacking or spies. Regardless, I will be keeping an eye out for developments, and I will keep you posted. And that, ladies and gentlemen, concludes your morning brief. Do remember, shoot me some emails this week as you think of how or if we can get Russia to the negotiating table. I am earnestly looking forward to your notes. And as always, we close out the show, reminding each other of why we are here talking about

our country and our world. It's the creed of every good spy and every smart American. It's from John chapter 8, verse 32. And you shall know the truth. And the truth shall make you free. Good day. Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money.

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