The President's Daily Brief - March 1st, 2024: Nuclear Thresholds, Hezbollah’s Green Light, & the Texas Inferno

Episode Date: March 1, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: A leaked Russian military document raises alarm bells, revealing a surprisingly low threshold for triggering a nuclear response. Tensions in the Middle East escalate as Iran authorizes Hezbollah to intensify its operations along Israel's northern frontier. Amidst a deadlock in Congress over foreign aid, the Pentagon is contemplating a fresh strategy to supply Ukraine with crucial weaponry and munitions. In today's Back of the Brief, we tackle the severe wildfires blazing through the Texas panhandle, causing widespread destruction. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money, whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto's trillion dollar swings. There's a money side to every story. Get the money side of the story. Subscribe now at Bloomberg.com. It's Friday, the 1st of March. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. Up first, a startling revelation. A leaked Russian military document unveils a concerning threshold for initiating a nuclear strike. The criteria detailed in the document indicate that Russia's actual benchmark for nuclear warfare is significantly lower than previously disclosed to the public. And spoiler alert, that's not a good thing. Later in the program, a report says Iran has given the green light to Lebanese terror organization Hezbollah to escalate its attacks along Israel's northern border, deepening concerns that a conflict

between Israel and the Iran-sponsored Lebanese organization could be imminent. Plus, the Pentagon is reportedly considering a new plan to send arms and ammunition to Ukraine despite the congressional logjam over foreign aid. And finally, in today's back of the brief, I'll bring you the latest on the massive wildfires that are cutting a devastating path through the Texas panhandle. But first up, the PDB spotlight. Leaked documents obtained by the Financial Times are giving us a rare glimpse into the nuclear doctrine of the Russian Federation, specifically, the documents outline the hypothetical scenarios in which the nation would be willing to launch a nuclear strike on their enemies, and that threshold might be far lower than Russia has ever publicly

acknowledged. Now, let me preface this by saying that the documents that were leaked to the Financial Times consist of 29 secret Russian military files drawn up between 2008. 8 and 2014, so they date back 10 years and more. The important consideration here when reviewing them is, of course, do they still remain relevant to current Russian military doctrine? According to the documents, Russia's threshold for a nuclear strike would be a combination of factors where losses suffered by Russian forces would, quote, irrevocably lead to their failure to stop major enemy aggression and create a critical situation for the state security of Russia. end quote. These potential conditions include the destruction of 20% of Russia's strategic ballistic

missile submarines, 30% of its nuclear-powered attack submarines, three or more cruisers, three airfields, a simultaneous hit on main and reserve coastal command centers, or if Putin is just having a bad day. It's worth noting that one of these thresholds has already been met, as Russia has lost nearly a third of its Black Sea fleet vessels through its two-year war with Ukraine. Another interesting note about the documents is that they show that despite the growing ties between Beijing and Moscow, Russia doesn't appear to trust their neighbor in the Far East. Well, I mean, that revelation is going to put a strain on the romance between Putin and China's Xi. I mean, any meaningful relationship honestly should be built on trust. Training materials

indicate that Russia's eastern military district conducted exercises that envisioned a hypothetical attack by China. As the Foreign Times notes, Moscow may fear that Beijing could take advantage of its military focus towards the West and launch an attack across the border to gain territory in Russia's far east. The documents also strongly contradict public statements made by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who said last year that there were only two possible thresholds for using nuclear weapons one, a retaliatory strike against another nuclear power that struck first, and if, quote, the very existence of Russia as a state comes under threat even if conventional weapons are used. The Kremlin has offered a comment on the leaked documents.

On Wednesday, Putin's spokesperson told the Financial Times, quote, the main thing is that the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons is absolutely transparent and is spelled out in the doctrine. As for the documents mentioned, we strongly doubt their author. authenticity." Now, what makes this revelation timely and actually more disturbing are comments made this week by President Putin. During his annual State of the Nation address on Thursday, the Russian President threatened

to use nuclear weapons against NATO countries if they send forces to help defend Ukraine from a Russian victory. Putin said in his speech that Western nations, quote, must understand that we also have weapons that can hit targets on their territory and warned of tragic. consequences if NATO forces were ever deployed to Ukraine. Given Putin's comments, it does make you wonder if the documents outlining the parameters for launching nukes were purposely leaked as a further warning shot to NATO. All right, coming up after the break, Iran gives its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah the green light to launch more attacks on Israel's northern frontier. And sources say the

Pentagon is weighing a new plan to bypass Congress and ship more weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. I'll be right back. Welcome back. Turning now to the Middle East. While the obvious focus has been on the conflict between Hamas and Israel, tensions remain high between Israel and Hezbollah. Earlier this week, Israeli warplanes struck Lebanon's Beka Valley, killing at least two Hezbollah members in its deepest attack into Lebanese territory since hostilities erupted with

the Iran-backed group last October. Hasbullah responded by firing 60 rockets at an Israeli army headquarters in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Now, for months, there's been a growing fear that the fighting between Israel and the Lebanese terror group could turn into open conflict. To date, Hezbollah and their Iranian paymasters have appeared reluctant, somewhat, to escalate beyond the tit-for-tat we've been seeing. However, that might be on the verge of changing. According or report in the Arabic post, Iran has now given Hezbollah the green light to escalate its attacks along Israel's northern border. The report cites high-level Iranian and Lebanese sources. The go-aheat reportedly came on Monday during an emergency meeting between Iran's Quds Force chief, Esmail Kani,

and Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. The Islamic Republic has reportedly set conditions for Hezbollah, ordering it to launch a large-scale attack on Israel, only after it, quote, had become certain of Israel's intention to carry out an invasion of the southern Gaza city of Rafa. As per the report, Tehran gave the go-ahead amid fears that after the Israeli defense forces completes an invasion of Rafa, southern Lebanon will be next. According to a source within Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, interviewed by the Arabic post, Nasrallah told the Iranian commander that an attack by Israel is likely to be imminent, and, will possibly come in the month of Ramadan or alongside Israel's invasion of the city of Rafa.

Nassu'llah went on to ask Connie to give him complete freedom in how he responds to any such attack. Now, there was no reporting on what Hezbollah's attack might look like. While Iran appears to be giving the go-ahead to its main proxy in Lebanon, its other proxies across the region, especially in Iraq and Syria, appear intent on remaining quiet, at least for the time being, at least as far as strikes against U.S. troops are concerned. There have been only two minor attacks in Syria since February 2nd, where the United States launched retaliatory attacks on targets in Syria and Iraq. Before then, the U.S. military was subjected to at least 170 attacks

against American troops in four months. If nothing else, the lull in the attacks should serve as further evidence that the Islamic Republic maintains a considerable amount of control over its price. All right, I want to turn now to Washington, where the Pentagon is reportedly weighing a new plan to get weapons and ammunition into the hands of the Ukrainian military. As we've been discussing, the Pentagon officially ran out of funds for Ukraine back in mid-January, and since then, the White House has had no luck in getting new funding from Congress, so it looks like the administration is now looking for creative solutions. According to defense officials, the Pentagon

is looking to tap its last remaining source, and that's around $4 billion in what's called the presidential drawdown authority funds, and those are still available for Ukraine. These drawdown funds allow the Pentagon to pull arms and equipment directly from its own stockpiles to send to Kyiv. Now, this might be a reasonable short-term solution, but there's one major risk here. There's no guarantee that the donated material sent to Ukraine would be replenished by Congress, and that could end up compromising U.S. military readiness in the event that the U.S. has to go to war. Another alternative is that the Defense Department could find money internally to cover the drawdown,

which actually is not unprecedented. For example, last year, the Pentagon found it had overestimated the amount of funding for ammunition, missiles, and other equipment that it's sent to Ukraine by $6.2 billion due to an accounting error. That's a $6.2 billion accounting error. Now that allowed the DOD to continue sending aid to Ukraine for a longer period of time than had initially been anticipated. No matter what the White House decides to do, there's ultimately going to be a risk involved, but that might be a risk that the White House is willing to take, especially considering reports from the battlefields of Ukraine. By all accounts, shortages of ammo and equipment are starting to become acute.

All right, coming up in today's back of the brief, I'll have the latest on those massive wildfires that are currently cutting a path of destruction through the Texas Panhandle. I'll be right back. In today's back of the brief, I want to bring some attention to the Smokehouse Creek wildfire that's currently raging in the Texas Panhandle. As of this morning, firefighters are still struggling to slow the spread of the blaze, which has become the largest wildfire in Texas history. According to the Texas A&M Forest Service, the fire has consumed well over one million acres of prairie land,

and the fires have also spread now into neighboring Oklahoma. The Texas fires have destroyed dozens of homes, businesses, and ranches in the Lone Star State, leaving a path of destruction larger than the size of the state of Rhode Island. Right now, the worst of the fires are burning north of Amarillo, and that's a city of over 200,000 people. The fires have even forced the Pantex plant, that's a nuclear weapons facility northeast of Amarillo, to temporarily cease operations this week and to evacuate non-essential workers. Plant workers have constructed a fire barrier to protect the plant's facilities. Tragically, the wildfires have now claimed at least one life. According to officials, 83-year-old Joyce Blankenship, a former substitute teacher from Hutchinson County,

was found dead in her destroyed house. Now, thankfully, the loss of life has been minimal so far, and that's in part because the area is sparsely populated. However, the Panhandle is home to about 86% of the state's cattle industry. According to reports, the Blaze has already taken a major toll on livestock in the area. Videos from the wildfire circulating on social media show cattle fleeing across fields and highways just trying to escape the flames. And needless to say, this fire is going to have a major impact on the same.

state's ranchers. As of right now, there's no word on what initially caused the blaze, and officials are still investigating, but dry conditions and winds have contributed to the speed and extent of the fires. And finally, before we wrap up, just a reminder that it's now been over six months since the devastating fires on Maui in and around historic Lahaina that killed 100 people and left thousands homeless. The communities there continue to work to recover with many still struggling to rebuild. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Friday, the 1st of March. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com.

I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Not loving your AT&T or T Mobile Bill? Yeah, we've been hearing that a lot. Good news. Bring your AT&T or T Mobile Bill to Verizon. and we'll give you a better deal.

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