The President's Daily Brief - March 25th, 2026: Why Reopening Hormuz Won’t Be Easy & Gulf States Inch Toward War With Iran

Episode Date: March 25, 2026

In this episode of The President’s Daily Brief: First up—the Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down, with hundreds of oil tankers sitting idle as tensions with Iran disrupt one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes. Reopening the strait may prove far more difficult than Washington suggests, with military, logistical, and strategic challenges complicating any effort to restore flow. Later in the show—Gulf nations are now weighing direct military action against Iran as repeated attacks raise the risk of a broader regional war. Plus—Israel signals a potential expansion of its campaign against Hezbollah, announcing plans to take control of parts of southern Lebanon. And in today’s Back of the Brief—the Taliban releases a U.S. citizen after more than a year in detention, marking a rare moment of cooperation between Washington and the group. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Pocket Hose-Ballistic: Text PDB to 64000 to get a FREE pocket pivot and their 10-pattern sprayer with the purchase of ANY size Copper Head hose. Message and data rates may apply. QUO: Make this the season where no opportunity slips away. Try QUO for free PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months when you go to https://Quo.com/PDB Superpower: Stop guessing about your health—get $20 off Superpower at https://superpower.com/pdb with code PDB. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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taxes and fees extra, default terms at Mintmobile.com. It's Wednesday, the 25th of March. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. And yes, still on the road. All right, let's get briefed. First up, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down with hundreds of tankers sitting idle.

And reopening it may be far more difficult than Washington is letting on. I'll explain the challenges behind getting tanker traffic moving again in the straight. Later in the show, Gulf nations weigh direct military action against Iran, as repeated attacks push the region closer to a widening conflict. Plus, Israel announces plans to take control of parts of southern Lebanon, suggesting a broader push against Hezbollah is underway. And in today's back of the brief, the Taliban, remember them, releases a U.S. citizen after more than a year in captivity in a rare moment of cooperation with Washington. But first, today's PDB spotlight.

Hundreds of oil tankers are now sitting idle on either side of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery, of course, with the global energy market that has effectively been choked off as the conflict with Iran continues. As the New York Times reported this week, nearly 500 vessels are currently stalled, waiting for some reassurance that it's safe to move again. As we've been reporting, oil prices are. are surging, prices at the fuel pumps are rising, markets are rattled, and President Trump

has vowed to reopen the strait, quote, one way or another. But here's the reality. Reopening the strait of Hormuz is far more complicated than it may sound. Let's start with the geography. I mean, after all, who doesn't love a good geography lesson? At its narrowest point, the straight is only 21 miles wide. At its widest stretch, it's approximately 60 miles wide. But the shipping lanes, as one inbound and one outbound are both only two miles wide. Those narrow lanes funnel massive oil tankers into predictable paths that run uncomfortably close to Iran's coastline. And that coastline is in flat desert. It's rugged, elevated terrain dotted with islands that give Iranian forces clear lines of sight and ideal positions for launching attacks. It's a confined,

highly controlled environment that heavily favors the defender. In practical terms, during a conflict, such as what we have now. The strait more closely resembles a maritime kill zone than a free-flowing shipping route. And Iran doesn't need overwhelming force to take advantage of that. It just needs enough capability to make the waterway dangerous. Anti-ship missiles, drones, fast attack boats, and, importantly, sea mines all play a role.

Many of these systems are mobile, easily concealed, and difficult to eliminate entirely, even after sustained U.S. and Israeli strikes. You're not really eliminating the threat, you're almost chasing it. And the reality is, success isn't about stopping most attacks, it's about stopping all of them. Without that, these shipping and insurance industries will continue to avoid the risk.

You can degrade Iran's capabilities. You can strike at launch sites. You can patrol the waters with advanced warships and aircraft overhead. But if even one drone gets through, one missile finds its target or one mine detonates beneath a tanker, well, the entire equation resets. Shipping halts, insurance rates spike, and confidence, what little there is, will disappear overnight. That's why mines in particular are such a game changer.

You don't even need to confirm that they're in the water. The mere possibility is enough to force a response. Clearing mines is slow, dangerous work that can take weeks, featuring specialized ships, constant air cover, and sailors operating in some of the most exposed conditions. And those mine clearing teams, well, they become targets themselves. So what would it actually take to reopen the strait? At a minimum, a large-scale military operation. Naval escorts to shepherd commercial tankers through the choke point.

Mine sweepers, glaring lanes ahead of them. Aircraft overhead to intercept drones and strike missile positions along the coast. All of it coordinated, sustained, and resource-intensive. Even then, there's a bottleneck problem. Before the conflict, roughly 80 oil and gas tankers were moving through the straight each day. Escort operations don't scale easily to that level. You're moving ships in convoys a handful of a time along predetermined, cleared routes. That creates a backlog, hundreds of ships waiting, limited capacity to move them, and a system that struggles to catch up.

And here's the part that often gets overlooked. It's not just a military decision. Because at the end of the day, it's not the Pentagon that decides when shipping resumed. it's the insurance and shipping market. Ship owners and insurers have to believe the risk is low enough to justify sending vessels back into the strait, and as long as Iran retains the ability to take that one shot, that confidence will be fragile at best. Even reopening the strait doesn't fully solve the problem.

Iran has already demonstrated that it can strike vessels not just inside the chokepoint, but in the broader Gulf and into the Gulf of Oman. That means ships may require protection well-beyond. the narrow passage itself, stretching U.S. and allied resources even further. And every step taken to secure the waterway carries its own risks. Escort missions could lead to direct confrontations. Strikes on Iranian positions could escalate the conflict. Even limited ground operations, seizing key islands, for example, could widen the war in ways that Washington may not intend. So yes, the U.S. can reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It has the capability, and it has the assets.

but restoring normal traffic? Well, that's a different question entirely. All right, coming up next, Gulf states edge closer to joining the fight against Iran, while Israel signals a major expansion of its campaign in southern Lebanon. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. This episode is brought to you by Pocket Hose, the world's number one expandable hose. Now, if you know anything about hoses, and hopefully you do,

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Get the money side of the story. Subscribe now at Bloomberg.com. Welcome back to the PDB. As the war with Iran nears the fourth week mark, we're starting to see the posture across the Gulf begin to change. U.S. allies that were trying to stay on the sidelines find themselves leaning toward, entering the fight. As we've been tracking, Gulf states had initially tried to stay out of this conflict, but sustained Iranian missile and drone attacks on U.S. and regional assets, such as oil infrastructure or refineries and even areas of major population centers like Riyadh, well, that makes that stance

increasingly untenable. So, at a certain point, these attacks from the regime stop being something that Gulf states can just absorb, and that's exactly where Saudi Arabia now finds itself. The kingdom, which had initially refused to allow its territory or airspace to be used for strikes on Iran, is now quietly reversed course, agreeing to let American forces operate out of King Fad airbase. Now, that's a significant shift. Saudi Arabia's foreign minister made that clear, warning that, quote, patience with Iranian attacks is not unlimited, end quote. At the same time, this isn't just happening on the military side. The United Arab Emirates, UAE, now finds itself opening an economic front, in this war. Authorities in the UAE have begun shutting down Iranian-linked institutions, including the Iranian Hospital and Iranian Club, while signaling that they could freeze billions of dollars in regime assets. UAE officials say the measures are targeting networks tied to the IRGC,

with the monarchy stating that, quote, certain institutions directly linked to the Iranian regime will be closed under targeted measures. Now, it's worth pausing on that for a second. The UAE has long been a financial hub for Iranian businesses. Cutting off that relationship impacts Iran's ability to access foreign currency and global trade. This move comes after the UAE has had to fend off more than 2,000 Iranian attacks since the war began. But I want to point out that the pressure on Gulf states isn't just coming from what Iran has already done, it's coming from what the regime may be signaling that it could do next. As I previously mentioned, Tehran has begun asserting that it wants a role in controlling the Strait of Hormuz. As our regular listeners are aware, Iran has effectively

halted traffic by targeting commercial vessels while allowing select ships through. Now, the regime has floated the idea of charging tolls to use the strait, effectively turning the critical waterway into a long-term economic lever. And for Gulf monarchies, well, that's a red line, because even partial control over Hormuz would give Iran enormous influence over global energy flows, something that Saudi Arabia and its neighbors are very unlikely to allow. So it's against that backdrop. The conversations are beginning to shift in a more consequential way. Over the past week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been in direct contact with President Trump,

reportedly pushing him to continue the assault on Iran and potentially expand the effort. MBS argues that the current U.S. Israel campaign presents what he described as a, quote, historic opportunity to remake the Middle East by eliminating the regime. That's according to the New York Times, citing people briefed by U.S. officials. Sources familiar with these discussions state that the Saudi Crown Prince has urged Washington to target Iran's energy infrastructure. Supposedly, MBS has even floated the possibility that Washington deployed ground troops to seize key assets. At the same time, Gulf states are still weighing the risks of joining the fight. Directly entering the war would turn them into open combatants against a regional rival, exposing critical infrastructure and population centers to even more retaliation.

There's also the concern that if Trump were to scale back the conflict, Gulf states could be left dealing with a more aggressive Iran on their own if they were to enter the fight, possibly sparking a long-term war if the regime were to remain largely intact. I want to turn now to southern Lebanon, where we're starting to get a better understanding of Israel's plans on the ground, as they point to a more permanent shift in how Jerusalem intends to eliminate Hezbollah along its northern frontier. Israeli defense minister, Israel Katz, said the IDF is now preparing to expand the territory that it controls in southern Lebanon, and it's doing so with a very specific line in mind. That would be the Latani River. Now, we've talked about this specific geographic marker before. The river, at its closest point, sits only a few miles from Israel's northern border, and at its farthest stretches about 20 miles into Lebanese territory.

For years, the Latani has effectively served as a buffer between Israel and Hezbollah. Now, Katz is signaling that Israel is preparing to hold everything south of the Latani, not as a temporary measure, but as part of a longer-term security posture. He said, quote, hundreds of thousands of residents of southern Lebanon who were evacuated will not return south of the Latani River until the security of northern Israel is assured, end quote. So that's a clear, if not the clearest indication, that Israel is no longer just trying to push Hezbollah back from the border, but to prevent Iran's strongest proxy from reestablishing itself in the area altogether. On the ground, we've been tracking Israeli forces already shaping

that reality. Katz says the military has bombed at least five-bbed. bridges along the Latani routes, he says, Chasbalah uses to move weapons and reinforcements into the fight. The moves by the IDF aim at cutting off Chesbalah's ability to flow its terrorist forces into southern Lebanon and reconstitute along Israel's northern edge. And of course, this didn't begin with the current operation. As I've mentioned, following the last ceasefire in late 2024, Israeli forces had established five outposts inside southern Lebanon near the border. What's happening now, on that footprint, expanding beyond those limited positions and moving towards something that looks much closer to sustained territorial control. Inside Jerusalem's government, there is pressure

to go even further. The hardline Israeli finance minister has called for the Latani River to become not just Israel's new security buffer, but rather its northern boundary, saying, quote, the current campaign in Lebanon must end with a fundamental change, end quote. And that reflects the broader view inside parts of the Israeli leadership that this moment isn't just about responding to Hezbollah attacks, but redrawing the map permanently. That idea is somewhat visible and how the current Israeli military push in southern Lebanon is actually being carried out. The operation began earlier this month after Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel in solidarity with Iran, following the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Tehran. Since then, Israeli forces have pushed into Lebanon, carrying out

extensive air strikes across the country, including in Beirut, targeting Hezbollah commanders, fighters, and infrastructure tied to the terror group's operations. At the same time, Katz says the IDF is systematically targeting border villages using what he described as the, quote, Rafe model. That's a reference to IDF operations in Gaza, where entire areas were cleared and turned to rubble to deny Hamas the ability to reuse those positions. All right, coming up next in the back of the brief, The Taliban releases a detained American after more than a year in custody. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here.

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released an American citizen after more than a year in detention. But, as is often the case in situations like this, the story is a bit more complicated than it first appears. Dennis Coyle, a 64-year-old American academic, had been held by the Taliban since January of 2025, reportedly pulled from his home in Kabul and kept without formal charges, much of that time, and near- solitary conditions. This week, Taliban officials announced his release, describing it as a pardon tied to the Eid holiday and granted at the request of his family. The U.S. government confirmed Coyle's release, crediting a combination of diplomatic efforts and persistent advocacy from his family. Behind the scenes, intermediaries, including Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, helped facilitate the negotiations.

An important reminder that with no formal diplomatic relationship between Washington and the Taliban, these kind of talks have to happen indirectly, often quietly, and over-extended periods of time. Secretary of State Marker Rubio called the release a positive step, but he, also made clear that this isn't the end of the story. Other Americans are still being held by the Taliban, and U.S. officials continue to accuse the group of what they describe as, quote, hostage diplomacy, detaining foreign nationals as leverage in negotiations. That framing is important, because while the Taliban is presenting this as a goodwill gesture tied to a religious holiday, Washington sees a broader pattern, one that mirrors tactics used by other adversaries,

including Iran and Russia. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Wednesday, the 25th of March. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And please don't forget to check out our YouTube channel. Just wander on over to YouTube or mosey on over to YouTube, whichever you prefer, and search up at President's Daily Brief. Some people, most of them related to me, say it's the finest YouTube channel they've ever seen. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB.

afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool.