The President's Daily Brief - March 5th, 2025: Food, Cars & Tech: Here's What You'll Pay More For Under The New Tariffs & The Unlikely Iran Deal Broker

Episode Date: March 5, 2025

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: New tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China just went into effect—so what does that mean for your wallet? We’ll break down where you can expect to pay more as the effects start hitting. A major curveball in Middle Eastern relations—reports say the U.S. could turn to Russia to help broker a new Iranian nuclear deal. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is committing $100 billion to expand chip production in the U.S. It’s a huge investment with major implications for both the economy and national security. And in today’s Back of the Brief—as protests flare up again on college campuses nationwide, Donald Trump is threatening to cut federal funding for any school that allows illegal demonstrations. We’ll break down what he said and what it could mean. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President’s Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. New tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China just went into effect. So, you ask yourself, what does that mean for your wallet? And how long might they be in effect? Well, we'll take a look at what the tariffs could mean when it comes to the prices you pay for stuff.

And that's not the sort of sentence that you would, get from some pipe-smoking highbrow economist. Later in the show, a major curveball in Middle Eastern relations reports say that the U.S. could turn to Russia to help broker a new Iranian nuclear deal. Rumor has it that Russian delegations have made multiple visits to Iran during the past year and a half. Plus, the chip company, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, is committing $100 billion, and that's with a B, dollars to expand chip production in the U.S. Now, it's a huge investment, obviously, with big implications, not just for the economy, but also for national security.

And in today's back of the brief, as protests flare up again on college campuses nationwide, President Trump is threatening to cut federal funding for any school that allows illegal demonstrations. We'll examine what he said and what it could mean. But first, today's PDB spotlight. The latest trade battle is officially underway. With new tariffs in place against Canada, Mexico, and China, President Trump is taking a hardline stance on trade. But beyond the geopolitical maneuvering, these tariffs, well, they do have real consequences for American consumers. From groceries to electronics to cars, prices are set to rise, potentially reshaping household budgets across the country.

Of course, the big question is, are the tariffs temporary? And if so, Well, how temporary? Given the pace of change and activity coming out of the White House, don't be surprised if the tariffs are gone by the end of the week. As a reminder, on Tuesday, President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on most imports from Mexico and Canada, with Canadian energy imports subject to a 10% tax. He also doubled duties on Chinese goods to 20%. The U.S. now is the largest importer of foreign goods, with those targeted countries, making up America's top three global suppliers, meaning that nearly 2.2 trillion, that's with a T,

in annual trade, could be impacted, and that's according to an analysis from Reuters. Economists are already warning that the trade measures will likely spike the price of an array of consumer goods, putting significant strain on Americans that have already been battered by years of rising inflation. Supporters of the tariffs argue it's a necessary move to protect American industries and to counter unfair trade practices. But it's important to understand the costs, including potential price hikes and retaliatory measures from trade partners. Now that economic retaliation came swiftly from Canada and China,

with Canada slapping an immediate 25% tariff on nearly $30 billion worth of American goods, with more to come by months' end. China imposed a new 15% tariff on U.S. exports of chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton, while adding a 10% levy on U.S. sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products. Mexico is also expected to follow with retaliatory tariffs, though officials said those measures would not be announced until Sunday. So, what does all this mean for the American consumer? With more than 40% of all U.S. imports coming from Mexico, Canada, and China, some economists have estimated that Trump's tariffs could cost the average U.S. household some $830 a year. They say the first place where these tariffs will be felt will likely

be at the gas pump as the U.S. relies on Mexico and Canada for critical energy exports, such as crude oil, petroleum, and gas and coal. Consumers in the Northeast could see gas prices jump by as much as $0.40 per gallon within the next one to three weeks, while the Midwest and Great Lakes regions could see an increase of 5 to 25 cents per gallon. That's according to economists who spoke with CBS News. The tariffs will also likely be felt in short order at the grocery store, as the sector already runs on thin profit margins. The U.S. imported more than $45 billion worth of agricultural products from Mexico and $40 billion from Canada just in 2023 alone, including fruit and vegetables, beef, pork, grains, potatoes, canola oil, and alcohol products. In fact, Axios reports that a stunning, 63% of vegetable imports

and 81% of beer imports, uh-oh, came from Mexico in 2023, meaning, well, you may want to stock up your pantry in mini-fridge sooner rather than later. You thought that pandemic-era hunt for toilet paper was bad. Just wait till you can't find beer. In addition to groceries, a large portion of Common household items like machinery, furniture, footwear, clothing, and textiles come from China, so expect price hikes in those areas as well. If businesses pass along half or more of the financial burden of the tariffs to consumers, prices on groceries and household items could increase by an average of roughly 1.6%, varying widely, of course, depending on the product.

It's according to an analysis by the Atlanta Federal Reserve. price impacts on other sectors, such as electronics and automobiles, will not likely be felt for several months, but the increases could be eye-watering. Automobiles are particularly vulnerable, given their complex supply chains. Car parts often cross U.S. borders six to eight times during assembly, meaning they could be taxed multiple times. Industry analysts say the average vehicle price could rise by as much as $12,000 for some models, an increase that threatens to crash consumer sales for domestic manufacturers. Then there's consumer electronics, such as laptops and tablets and gaming consoles and smartphones, which are almost exclusively imported from abroad, with roughly 41% coming from China.

Economists expect large price increases across this sector, though estimates vary widely at this time. All that said, how much costs rise will depend on whether businesses absorb some of the additional burden or adjust their supply chains before passing the expenses on to consumers. Whether Trump's trade gamble will pay off long term is really anyone's guess. But for now, consumers would be wise to brace for higher prices and stock up on beer. All right, coming up next, reports say the U.S. may turn to Russia to broker a new Iranian nuclear deal, plus a $100 billion investment in U.S. chip production. Why, it's not just about the economy, but also national security.

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The revelation, first reported by Bloomberg, follows a series of visits by Russian officials to Iran during the Israel-Khamas war, in which Iran, of course, launched multiple ballistic missile attacks against Jerusalem. Now, the timing of this initiative is notable. Iran's foreign minister has just resigned, and Iran's president has downplayed any active discussions with the U.S. Meanwhile, Russia, long a key partner of the Iranian regime, deepened its strategic ties with the Islamic Republic from backing the former Assad regime in Syria to acquiring Iranian drones for use in its war against Ukraine. But by stepping into the role of nuclear, deal broker, Moscow appears to be maneuvering itself into an even more complex position on the

global stage. This development comes as tensions between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy continue to escalate, culminating in a temporary suspension of all-American military aid to Ukraine just on Monday. That decision has prompted speculation among analysts about a broader geopolitical recalibration, one in which Washington's backing for Ukraine takes a back to seat while Russia plays a role in steering Iran toward renewed nuclear negotiations. It wouldn't be the first time that Moscow benefited from such a dynamic. During the Obama administration, Russia's involvement was critical to securing the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. At the time, the Kremlin capitalized on Washington's focus on Iran, only to turn around and, of course,

launched its invasion of Ukraine in 2014. The question now is whether history is repeating itself or whether the Trump administration is attempting something altogether different. Unlike past negotiations, Trump's approach appears to be broader in scope. His administration is prioritizing strategic competition with China and exploring whether it could align, at least temporarily, with Russia on key issues. Yet, skepticism remains. Would Washington benefit from such an arrangement, or would it simply give Moscow more leverage? One major uncertainty is whether Trefran is even willing to engage in new talks.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamini has long-harbored deep distrust of Washington, particularly after Trump's first term saw the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and imposed the maximum pressure sanction strategy. That's a policy that Trump has since reinstated now in his second term. From the Iranian regime's perspective, Russian brokered talks could be less about diplomas, and more about extracting concessions while maintaining its nuclear program as a bargaining chip. If Washington sees de-escalation with both Iran and Russia as a means of pivoting its foreign policy focus away from the Middle East and Europe, it may view a potential deal as a strategic win.

Such a shift would mark a stark contrast from Trump's first term, which saw heightened tensions, of course, with the Iranian regime. At the same time, Russia may be angling for its own advantage, and when I say may, of course, I mean they are, using the diplomatic maneuver to negotiate a more favorable ceasefire in Ukraine. By presenting itself as an intermediary in nuclear talks, Moscow could be signaling a willingness to engage in a grand bargain of sorts, one that tempers hostilities in Ukraine while securing gains for them elsewhere. Speaking of Russia, I wanted to follow up on a story that we brought you yesterday. The Pentagon is pushing back against claims that it has halted offensive cyber operations against Russia. They're saying, uh-uh, we didn't do

that. Defense Secretary Pete Higseth has not issued any orders to cancel or delay cyber operations targeting Russian assets according to a senior defense official. The official emphasized that no stand-down directive has been given and that U.S. cyber operations remain active. Cybersecurity experts had warned that any pause in offensive operations would be a strategic gift to Moscow, potentially weakening U.S. leverage in both cyber and conventional military engagements. But for now, the Pentagon insists that there has been no shift in policy. We'll keep an eye on that. Okay, turning stateside. In a shift that could redefine the global semiconductor industry, President Trump announced that the Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing company, known as TSM,

will commit a $100 billion investment to expand U.S. chip production. The investment follows an already pledged $65 billion commitment that spanned 2020 to 2024. This new round of funding will bankroll the construction of three additional semiconductor fabrication plants, two advanced packaging facilities, and a cutting-edge research and development center in Phoenix, Arizona. Trump, flanked by TSM's CEO at the White House on Monday, heralded the deal. Ooh, he heralded it. You don't hear that word very often, but it's a good.

good word. Anyway, I digress. The president heralded the deal as proof of America's economic dominance and self-reliance, calling it a, quote, tremendous move by the most powerful company in the world. Trump predicts the expansion will generate up to 25,000 high-paying jobs, solidifying the U.S. as a major player in semiconductor manufacturing, not to mention thousands, tens of thousands, of construction jobs over the next four years. The latest investment builds on TSM's growing presence in the U.S., which kicked off with its initial Arizona fabrication plan announcement back in 2020. Since then, the company has constructed three plants at the site with mass production commencing in late 2024. The newly planned R&D Center is expected to propel the development of next-generation

semiconductor nodes, which are chips crucial to tech giants like Apple, and NVIDIA. Government incentives have played a role in luring TSM's stateside. The Biden administration awarded the company's Arizona subsidiary a $6.6.6 billion CHIPS Act grant in 2024, helping to finance the facilities. But Trump made clear that this latest investment, this $100 billion investment, would move forward without any additional government subsidies. Instead, TSM is expected to allocate roughly 40 billion in capital expenditures for 2025, directing a significant chunk toward U.S. operations. The move is more than just an economic windfall. It's a strategic recalibration with national security implications. Semiconductors are the backbone, of course, of modern technology,

powering everything from artificial intelligence to defense systems. By shifting more of its most advanced production away from Taiwan, TSM is bolstering America's supply chain resilience, and reducing reliance on a region at growing risk of conflict with China. Taiwan currently produces about 90% of the world's most advanced chips, with TSM alone responsible for the bulk of that output. U.S. officials have long warned that any disruption, whether through military conflict, economic pressures, or trade restrictions, could cripple key industries and defense capabilities.

Bringing more of that production onshore, they argue, is an insurance policy against geopolitical instability, and they're not wrong. Still, the transition won't be painless. Producing semiconductors in the U.S. is, as you might suspect, significantly more expensive than in Taiwan. Much of the labor at TSM's existing fabrication plants has come from Taiwanese workers, and the company has already charged American customers higher prices in order to offset costs. However, if the company follows through on its commitments, This investment will mark one of the most consequential shifts in high-tech manufacturing in decades. All right, coming up next.

As campus protests flare up again, President Trump is threatening to cut federal funding for any school that allows illegal demonstrations. The details coming up. I'll be right back. Kayak gets my flight, hotel, and rental car right, so I can tune out travel advice that's just plain wrong. Bro, Skycoin. Way better than points. Never fly during a Scorpio full moon. Just tell the manager you'll sue. Instant room upgrade. Stop taking bad travel advice.

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Your life deserves music. Your music. reserves Bose. Find your perfect product at bows.com. In today's back of the brief, American universities that failed to crack down on anti-Semitism and curtail violent protests could soon face the wrath of the federal government and see their federal funding dry up. On Tuesday, President Trump vowed to strip federal funding for any college or university that allows what he called, quote, illegal protests to run rampant on their campuses. The president also threatened to essentially revoke visas and deport foreign students involved in violent demonstrations.

That's according to a report from the Guardian. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said, quote, all federal funding will stop, and he put that in capitals, for any college, school, or university that allows illegal protests. Agitators will be imprisoned or permanently sent back to the country from which they came. American students will be permanently expelled or depending on the crime arrested. The president added, quote, no masks, and that again was all in caps. Thank you for your attention to this matter, end quote. Well, that's a polite way to end a text.

Trump's comments came just one day after multiple federal agencies announced that they would be reviewing more than $50 million in government contracts and grants with Columbia University over there, quote, ongoing in action in the face of relentless harassment of Jewish students. Pro-Israel groups have long been calling on the federal government to do more, to protect Jewish students from rampant anti-Semitism after pro-Palestinian protests spread across dozens of college campuses just last spring. As we recently discussed on the PDB, protests once again erupted at Columbia University in New York City last week, with masked students taking over a building at Columbia's Barnard College for several hours. During their occupation, students reportedly assaulted a school employee who tried to leave the building, sending them to the hospital. The group, which hid their identities behind headscarves and masks, well, that's very brave,

was led by members of Columbia's chapter of students for justice in Palestine. They declared, quote, long live the student in defada on their social media account. After the Trump administration launched their review of Columbia's grants on Monday, the school hastily issued a statement promising to work with the White House to ensure all their students feel safe on campus. Officials at Columbia said they are, quote, fully committed to not losing federal funding. No, that's not what they said. They said, quote, fully committed to combating anti-Semitism and all forms of discrimination. And we are resolute that calling for promoting a glorifying violence or terror has no place at our university. End quote. And that, my friends,

is the president's daily brief for Wednesday, 5 March. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirstTV.com. And of course, as you've no doubt heard already from friends and family, to listen to the show ad free, well, it's simple. Become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.

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