The President's Daily Brief - May 20th, 2022. US And NATO Sending New Missiles to Ukraine. Monkeypox Outbreak?

Episode Date: May 20, 2022

It’s May 20th. You’re listening to the President’s Daily Brief. I’m your host and former CIA Officer Bryan Dean Wright. Your morning intel starts now. First up, there’s a big development in Ukraine this morning. And it has to do with new missiles that can sink Russian ships. We’re going to discuss this weaponry and how it could lead to a major escalation. And as always, I’m keeping an eye out for developing stories. Put these two on your radar. First, we’ve got a new viral outbreak. This time, it’s Monkey Pox — a distant cousin of Chicken Pox. I’m going to share the latest, including a big order of vaccines that the government just placed. Second, there might be a new explanation for why COVID cases and hospitalizations are going up in vaccinated people. I’ll share a possible connection to obesity. All up next on the President’s Daily Brief. ------ Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of the President's Daily Brief. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's May 20th. You're listening to the President's Daily Brief. I'm your host and former CIA Officer Brian Dean Wright. Your morning intel starts now. The brief you're about to hear is in the same spirit of the actual President's Daily Brief, which is a top secret summary of the most critical events in the past 24 hours, all delivered to the President each day by the nation's spymasters. And so, ladies and gentlemen, I am your spy and this is your brief. Here's what we're going to be talking about this morning. First up, there is a big development in Ukraine this morning. And it has to do with new missiles that can sink Russian ships.

We're going to discuss what this weaponry is and how it could lead to a major escalation. And as always, I'm keeping an eye out for developing stories. Put these two on your radar. First, we've got a new viral outbreak. This time it's monkey pox, a distant cousin of chicken pox. I'm going to share the latest, including a big order of vaccines that the government just placed. Second, there might be a new explanation for why COVID cases and hospitalizations are going up in vaccinated people. all share a possible connection to obesity.

All up next on the President's Daily Brief. Your first piece of intel, there was a lot of news out yesterday about Ukraine, a $40 billion aid package that was approved by the Senate and a separate $100 million package that was authorized by the president. But there was another piece of Ukraine news that most people didn't hear about, and they should have, because it dramatically increases the chances of war between Russia and the United States. Let me explain.

The United States and its European partners are an advantage. advanced talks this morning to send Ukraine two powerful missiles. One is called the harpoon and the other is the naval strike missile. You can probably guess what these missiles do based on their names, their anti-ship missiles. And they are some of the most lethal available to any military on the planet. So American and European sources are really reluctant to talk about this story and for very good reason. If these missiles work as designed, Russia's naval fleet in the Black Sea could be sunk and that would absolutely lead to serious retaliation by Putin and his warhawks in Moscow. Now, you all know exactly why these missiles are being considered,

because it's directly connected to the brief that I gave you yesterday on wheat. So let's do a quick recap. Ukraine has a wheat harvest coming up starting in mid-June. That's just a few weeks away. To get that crop to market, Ukraine needs to have its ports operational. But as you know, nothing is moving out of those ports because the Russian Navy is parked right outside. about 20 ships and around six or so submarines. And that is why Kiev wants those deadly missiles to fight back, to sink the Russian Navy.

So of the two missiles being considered, the most likely to be sent is the Naval Strike missile, or NSM. The White House likes this particular option because it's got four really good elements to it. First, a nice range, about 150 miles. Second, it's pretty easy to train on. It takes about 14 days or so. Third, it can be launched from the Ukrainian coastline versus a ship which the Ukrainians don't have. And finally, NATO allies have a bunch of these NSMs in stock, actually.

Norway in particular has a bunch. The harpoon missiles, on the other hand, are less ideal. There are a number of reasons for that. But the bottom line is that either of these missiles, regardless of which is sent, they're both very lethal. And when you combine those missiles with the operational and tactical intelligence that America provides to Ukraine, in other words, the exact location of every Russian ship, well, you can count on some of those boats finding a home at the bottom of the sea. And if that gives you some pause, well, you are in good company.

European nations like Norway who could otherwise very quickly donate these NSM missiles, well, they're really afraid that once their involvement goes public, they're going to be targeted by Russia, probably a cyber attack, but frankly, who knows at this point? They will be targeted regardless. So that means that no nation, wants to go first to be that lead donor, nor does anybody in Europe want to be the only one

who participates in giving over either the missiles or the launch platforms that they require. In other words, if these missiles end up in Ukraine, it has to be an all-in proposition. Everybody shares the risk. So let's talk about if you were in the White House this morning, how should you be thinking about this decision? Well, fundamentally, you have three competing goals.

First, you're trying to keep America out of our country, World War III. No direct conflict between the Russians and the Americans, please. Second, you're trying to give the Ukrainians a sort of Goldilocks mix of weaponry. In other words, armament that's not too powerful, but at the same time, very deadly. And third, you've got to get those porch running. You've got to get that wheat into the global marketplace. Because without it, a whole lot of folks are probably going to starve all around the world. Now, I have some ideas of what we might do, all to avoid the risk of sending those anti-ship missiles. And I shared one long-shot approach with you all yesterday, but it was pretty much focused on diplomacy. But I want to challenge you this morning.

I want you to take the weekend and imagine that you are in the Oval Office and that it is you that has to make this call. And it is you that has to live with the consequences. So think on it. Share this challenge with a friend or a loved one. I want you to debate it because we're going to talk about the options that you come up with next week. Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is California's number one entertainment destination for today's superstars. Catch the Jonas Brothers return to the Yamava Theater stage

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It's a distant cousin to chicken pox and smallpox. And it's spreading in places where it really shouldn't be, far from its native home in central and western Africa. And we've got cases in the UK, in Portugal, Spain, and here we go, the United States. But just one case so far, a man in Boston. So there's some good news and some bad news with this story and a whole lot that we don't know. So let's start with the good news. This particular strain of the virus is pretty benign. It causes some of the usual flu-like symptoms that you might imagine, like fever and body aches and those kinds of things. And also there's the classic blisters that you see with chickenpox. And while it does kill a small number of people, less than 1% of sufferers, for the vast majority of monkeypox positive patients, you're going to recover just fine. It's two weeks to maybe one month, and it's pretty miserable, but most of the most of the most of the most of the most of the positive patients, you're going to recover just fine. It's going to recover just fine. It's pretty miserable. It's pretty miserable. It's a lot. It's pretty miserable. It's people recover. Okay, so let's get to the bad news. This thing is spreading in a way that it just shouldn't be. The vast majority of current sufferers have never traveled to central or western Africa, which is almost always the case when it's discovered outside of the African continent. And virtually none of the people know each other. They have absolutely no idea where they got it.

In other words, we have community spread, which is really weird in this case, because normally this virus is really hard to spread. Data show that if you have monkeypox, you pass it on to zero to one other person at most. And that suggests that this particular strain, although not deadly, has mutated to become more transmissible. So that means that there are almost certainly more cases out there, probably being confused with herpes or chickenpox. And that leads us to the mystery of this outbreak. So far, the people infected seem to be mostly gay and bisexual men. But that's odd because monkeypox isn't a disease that's a disease that's.

known to be spread via intimate contact. Now, we know that it can be spread when two people are in close proximity to each other for an extended period of time, so perhaps that's why. Regardless, doctors are really stumped about what's happening. There's a big meeting on Monday with infectious disease specialists, and they're going to sit down and talk and coordinate efforts. But there's one thing you probably didn't know about this story that I think is interesting. One of the men in the UK who has monkeypox was on an international flight recently and may have been

symptomatic. Health officials are contacting those who sat three rows ahead and three rows behind him, and that includes six Americans. As of this morning, they're all being monitored and will be for a number of more days, probably 14, which is the longest known incubation period before the virus activates. I should note that there are no real treatments for this, but there's a possibility that antivirals might help, but we don't have any trials on humans, just in animals and petri dishes. Also, there is a vaccine, both for monkeypox and smallpox, which offer fairly good protection. And on Wednesday, our government ordered millions of doses of that vaccine. That's going to run us about $120 million and we should have those doses at some point next year. The bottom line is that at present,

there's really no reason to panic. But it's definitely something that we should be watching, and I certainly will be and will, of course, keep you posted. How many discounts does USA Auto Insurance offer? Too many to say here. Multi-vehicle discount. Safety. driver discount, new vehicle discount, storage discount, legacy. How many discounts will you stack up? Tap the banner or visit usaa.com slash auto discounts. Restrictions apply. Kayak gets my flight, hotel, and rental car right, so I can tune out travel advice that's

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Kayak, got that right. I've got one other odd health update for you. It appears that obesity may weaken the effectiveness of COVID vaccines, specifically in people who have never been infected before. So let me say that differently. Let's say that you so far have dodged the bullet of getting COVID, but you've been vaccinated because you're in the high-risk category of being obese. Well, this latest study out of Turkey says that the vaccine isn't

as effective for you as compared to others who have been previously infected. So there's a lot of scientists trying to unpack what this small study means and results are preliminary, but there's some discussion about whether this might explain why states like Vermont, where most people have never been infected, but they are vaccinated, why those states are experiencing a surge in the past couple of weeks of both cases and hospitalizations. Now, more to come on this possible connection between obesity and vaccine efficacy and previous exposure, But I think that the key takeaway here is that as always, these sorts of studies are a really important reminder that we have a lot to learn about the novel virus that is COVID and our very novel

vaccine. And that, ladies and gentlemen, concludes your morning brief. One note of cheer that I'd like to pass along before I let you go and we speak again on Monday. Yesterday's brief about wheat, well, it set a record for us. We had the most listeners that we've ever had. So again, to all the new folks joining us, welcome to the PDB. Make sure that you subscribe on your favorite platform like Apple and Iheart and Spotify. And for my old timers, who've been with me since the very beginning, I so appreciate you. You are earnestly like my family. And with that, we close out our show reminding each other of why we are here, talking about our country and our world. It's the creed of every good spy and every smart American. It's from John chapter 8, verse 32.

and you shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free. Good day. Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money, whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto's trillion dollar swings. There's a money side to every story. Get the money side of the story. Subscribe now at Bloomberg.com.