The President's Daily Brief - May 24th, 2024: Hamas Resilience, Putin’s Crackdown Continues, & Marine Base Breach

Episode Date: May 24, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief:   The Biden administration openly criticizes Israel's military strategy in Gaza, asserting that Hamas retains a significant portion of its fighting force. Examination of claims from the UK’s Ministry of Defense that China is providing lethal aid to Russia for its war in Ukraine. Details on the arrest of another senior defense official in Russia for taking bribes, as part of Putin’s ongoing purge. The story of two Jordanian men arrested for attempting to breach the US Marine Corps base at Quantico, with one suspect having crossed the US-Mexico border before being released into the US. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Go to Patriot Gold Group.com or call 1-888-621-3856 for a free investor guide. It's Friday 24 May. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. As Israel's operation in Rafah continues, the Biden administration has begun openly criticizing Israel's military strategy in Gaza. They claim that Hamas has retained a significant portion of its fighting force, indicating that the Israeli defense forces, the IDF, are still far from wiping out the terror group. Now, there's nothing like armchair quarterbacking

one of the most complex counterterrorism and urban combat operations in modern times. I'm sure it's considered very helpful. Later in the show, we'll examine claims from the UK's Ministry of Defense that China is now providing lethal aid to Russia for its war in Ukraine. And if that sounds like a massively problematic sea change

in global dynamics, well, you'd be correct. Plus, Putin's purge of his defense ministry continues with the announcement that another senior defense official has been arrested for taking bribes. Between the senior officers Putin has lost in this war with Ukraine and the senior defense officials dropping like flies to the corruption charges, well, there's a lot of headroom there at the Kremlin's military.

And in today's back of the brief, we'll bring you the story of a pair of Jordanian men who were recently arrested attempting to breach the U.S. Marine Corps base at Quantico. As it turns out, one of the suspects crossed the U.S.-Mexico border before being released into the U.S.,

and I realize that's a statement that won't likely shock anyone other than perhaps Homeland Secretary of Mallorcas, who apparently believes things are looking pretty good down there. But first, today's PDB spotlight. We're more than seven months into the war in Gaza, seven months since Hamas started this conflict by killing 1,200 Israelis in their brutal rampage and taking over 250 hostages.

And the Biden administration is now openly questioning Israel's military strategy and its ability to achieve its stated goal, which would be the total elimination of Hamas. According to officials interviewed by Politico, the IDF's failure to hold parts of Gaza after clearing them has been a significant disaster. As we've been seeing over the past several weeks, IDF forces have been forced to conduct operations in areas of the Palestinian enclave that were cleared months ago, essentially playing whackamol with the terror group, which continues to make use of the tunnel system that runs below Gaza. This guerrilla warfare tactic has been a persistent challenge for Israeli forces, complicating their efforts to maintain control over the enclave. Now, keep in mind, an accurate count of just how many,

Khomez members have been killed since October 7th, well, it remains elusive, similar to the elusive and uncorroborated statistics on the number of Palestinian civilian casualties. In a statement released back in April, the IDF said it had killed about 13,000 Hamas fighters since the start of the war. Hamas officials have said that around 6,000 to 8,000 of their fighters have been killed. Neither side has provided much evidence to support their claims. However, you will US intelligence is painting a fairly grim picture of the IDF's effectiveness. According to estimates, only 30 to 35% of Hamas's fighters have been killed, and about 65% of its tunnels are still intact. Now, there's no indication that the U.S. Intel estimates

are any more accurate than the numbers are being tossed out by either the IDF or Hamas. Without explanation as to how U.S. Intel is coming up with their numbers, it's hard to figure out what the true picture happens to be. For some context, prior to the 7 October attacks, the Al-Kasam Brigades, that's the Hamas' military wing, was estimated to have between 30,000 to 40,000 fighters. That would mean, at the low end, close to 20,000 Hamas terrorists remain active in the Gaza Strip. And those are just the statistics for fighters who were a part of Hamas before 7 October. U.S. intelligence has also estimated that the terror group has been able to recruit thousands of new fighters over the past several months.

This recruitment effort underscores just how resilient the terror group is. The report also highlights the increasing frustration among U.S. officials. Despite repeated warnings from Washington, it appears that Israel has no intention of changing course. A senior intelligence official told Politico, quote, we want to encourage a deeper focus on the connection between the ongoing military operations and ultimately the strategic endgame. Yeah, you could actually probably put that in plain English and it would make a lot more sense. But officials also fear that Israel's stated endgame Hamas's elimination may be all but out of reach, an assessment indicating the likelihood of

extended conflict and ongoing instability in the region. Shocking, of course, that the assessment for the Middle East would be ongoing instability in conflict. It's also difficult here to comprehend what the Biden White House believes will happen if Israel bends to their pressure and essentially backs off from their operations against Hamas. Aside from appeasing their Democrat base, there's little upside, meaning Hamas will remain intact and in charge of Gaza. Iran will ensure that they are resupplied and reconstituted as quickly as possible, and the violence and instability will then continue. It defies logic that the Biden administration may somehow believe that ending the effort against Hamas now will somehow result in a new benign governance structure in Gaza. That doesn't mean that

the IDF can somehow completely destroy Hamas. Nobody with any counterterrorism experience believes that, but they can destroy more of the leadership, mid-level management command structure and infrastructure, including the tunnels, to make them possibly too weak to fend off. a coalition of Arab states and others who could step in to set the table for a new governing authority, whoever that may be. Nobody wants endless conflict, but leaving Hamas in place, well, that's a sure path to endless conflict. All right, coming up next, we'll look at reports from the UK that China is now actively arming the Russian military. Then we'll turn to the Kremlin, where President Putin's purge of his defense ministry continues.

with another high-profile arrest. I'll be right back. Welcome back. Turning our attention to the east, the UK's Defense Secretary triggered international alarms on Wednesday by claiming China is now actively arming Russian forces in Ukraine. Defense Secretary Grant Shaps made the claim

at a security conference in London on Wednesday, saying Beijing had now officially made themselves a participant in Vladimir Putin's war against Ukraine, recently sending combat equipment directly to the Russian army. That's according to a report from the telegraph. Shapp said, quote, an axis of authoritarian states, led by Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, have escalated and fueled conflicts and tensions.

They have increasingly been working together, and today I can reveal that we have evidence that Russia and China are collaborating on combat equipment for use in Ukraine, end quote. His claims were immediately contradicted however, by the Biden administration, who said they were not aware of any such intelligence. Hmm. White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, said he would be speaking to his UK counterpart to ensure, quote, that we have a common operating picture, end quote.

Which is fine, as long as that common operating picture is based on credible and corroborated intelligence and not on how you wish the world was operating or possibly on political considerations, meaning if the UK intel is solid, and look, I've worked with both MI5 and 6 over the years, and I know them to be excellent, then the U.S. administration needs to set aside any concerns over Chinese sensitivities and act accordingly. As we've regularly discussed on the PDB, Western concerns have been mounting over China's ongoing economic support of Moscow, which has allowed Putin to rebuild his military industrial base. Up until this point, however, China has not apparently directly supplied arms to Russia, unlike North Korea and Iran. The allegations

come in the wake of a face-to-face summit last week in Beijing between Russian President Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, where the two leaders pledged to deepen their ties amid the war in Ukraine and exchanged friendship bracelets. As a reminder, back in February 2022, just days before Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine, China and Russia agreed to a quote, no-limits partnership, that sounds racy, that many say has enabled Putin's aggression. China has filled the gap left by former European trade partners, with trade between the two countries between Russia and China reportedly surging by more than 26 percent in 2023, totaling roughly $240 billion.

UK Defense Secretary Shaps pointed to their economic partnership as proof that China and Russia are, quote, covering each other's backs. He said the West needed to wake up to the growing threat posed by the East's burgeoning power block. He noted that Beijing has tried to position themselves as a, quote, moderating influence on Putin. Sorry, I almost broke into laughter there, but said their unwavering economic support of Russia proves otherwise, and, you know, he's not wrong. Leaders in China, meanwhile, continue to claim neutrality regarding Ukraine. Hey, we don't know. We're neither here nor there. Look at us. sitting on the fence, saying they have no plans to get embroiled in the war. Ah, well, I for one,

have no problems putting faith in whatever the CCP says. I mean, have they ever been known to play fast and loose with the truth? Shifting gears slightly, Vladimir Putin's purge of Russia's military ranks continued this week as another general was arrested for allegedly taking bribes. As we've been covering on the PDB, Moscow's senior ranks have seen a flurry of changes in recent weeks, as Putin ramps up efforts to root out alleged corruption and reshuffle the top brass of the Russian military. This week, the deputy head of the Russian army's general staff, became the latest official to find himself swept up in the purge for allegedly taking large-scale bribes totaling 36 million rubles, or that would be nearly $400,000, according to a report from the independent.

Although, as bribes and the Russian general staff go, that amount seems amateurish. The man in question, Lieutenant General Vadim Shemarren, has been in charge of overseeing the military signal corps since 2021, which manages military communications, including confidential battlefield plans. He himself took over the role from an official who was arrested in 2020 for accepting millions of dollars worth of bribes. The scandal is the largest facing Russia's military in years, at least that we know of. Shemarren became the fourth high-ranking defense figure to be arrested over the past month on charges of corruption.

The purge began on April 23rd, with the arrest of Deputy Defense Minister Timor Ivanov, followed by the arrests of the head of personnel at the Russian Defense Ministry, along with the former commander of Russia's 58th Army unit. Kremlin spokesman, Dmiti Peskov, downplayed the arrests, claiming there was no active campaign,

to clear Russia's ranks. He said it was simply part of their routine fight against corruption. Now, to be fair, one could argue that Putin is using corruption as the reason for clearing some unwanted officials, or perhaps officials that are deemed disloyal or untrustworthy in some way, much like China's Xi Jinping has done. After all, corruption within the Kremlin and Russian military isn't new. It just tends to surface and become an issue when it serves Putin's interest. interests. And to that point, a former Kremlin advisor told the Independent that the arrests are part of a large-scale audit by the Putin regime of the country's main communications directorate. He said the probe also aimed to, quote, increase the army's morale and equip the army with the modern communications

equipment and missile and artillery guidance systems, end quote. In the wake of his deputy's arrest, Putin also recently demoted his longtime defense minister, Sergei Shorgu, shifting him to the role of Secretary of Russia's Security Council. He was replaced by Andrei Belosov, a civilian economist, with no prior military experience. His appointment was seen as an attempt to rein in corruption and ensure efficiency in the allocation and spending of military resources amid the war in Ukraine. The purge comes as Russia gains ground in northeastern Ukraine, and officials in Kiev warn that Moscow is gearing up for a major summer offensive. Finally, in today's back of the brief,

an attempted breach of the U.S. Marine Base at Quantico is shining a spotlight on the danger lurking in America's poorest southern border. I know, it's surprising that if you don't have border security controls and you don't know who's entering the country that there's a chance, just a chance, that bad actors will take advantage. I'll be right back. Not loving your AT&T or T Mobile Bill? Yeah, we've been hearing that a lot.

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can save the day like superheroes and sidekicks or auto and home insurance. With USAA, you can bundle your auto and home and save up to 10%. Tap the banner to learn more and get a quote at usaa.com slash bundle. Restrictions apply. In today's back of the brief, two Jordanian nationals who entered the country illegally were recently arrested for attempting to breach a U.S. Marine base in Virginia

in what has been described as a potential dry run for al-Qaeda or ISIS. The incident unfolded on the 3rd of May when the two men drove a, box truck up to the Fuller Road gate of Marine Corps Base Quantico in Virginia. They initially attempted to lie their way onto the base, posing as delivery drivers for the post office, according to a report from the New York Post. As skeptical officials directed the vehicle to a holding area for further vetting, the men reportedly made a break for the base trying to drive through a vehicle barrier before being apprehended. Immigration officials confirmed that the men had entered the country illegally through the U.S. southern border.

One of the men was stopped on his crossing in April, but subsequently released with a notice to appear in court at a later date. Look, not to put too fine a point on it, but the current U.S. administration has disregarded the security of U.S. citizens for the past three years by disregarding the various threats created with a porous border. Reports also indicate one of the men was on the U.S. government's terrorist watch list, oh, though authorities have not confirmed the information or elaborated on their intent. Former Navy SEAL Robert O'Neill told the New York Post that the incident had all the hallmarks of a terrorist dry run, most likely for groups like Al-Qaeda or ISIS. He said they were probably testing the base of security for potential future

attacks. While the breach was alarming enough, the response from officials at the base was, well, particularly bizarre and inadequate, frankly. According to the New York Post, senior leaders at Marine Corps Base Quantico allegedly attempted to hide the incident from their rank and file personnel. Officials waited two weeks before disclosing the breach only after unconfirmed press reports began to emerge, setting off a bit of a firestorm of criticism from the personnel at the base. The incident has also sparked renewed criticism of Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham sent a letter to the DHS earlier this week, demanding to know how these men slipped through the border.

What? Well, I can answer that question. They paid the cartels to get them to the border, and then they walked across. You don't need to have a letter or an investigation or a committee to determine the problem, but you do need competent grownups in positions of responsibility to fix it. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Friday, 24 May. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And to listen to the show ad-free, remember, you can become a premium member of the president's

daily brief by visiting pdb premium.com. I'm Mike Baker. Now I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.