The President's Daily Brief - May 2nd, 2024: Russia’s Arms Race, Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions, & Illegal Migration Migrates

Episode Date: May 2, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief:   With new Western arms shipments headed to Ukraine, Russia is responding by boosting its own weapons production. We'll assess the current state of the Russian arms industry after two years of conflict.   Growing concerns mount as Iran may be closer than ever to acquiring a nuclear weapon, with the regime ramping up its provocative rhetoric.   We explore reports that U.S. border patrol agents are now questioning Chinese TikTok employees about their ties to the Communist Party as they enter the United States.   In today’s Back of the Brief, we look at how Texas’s intensified border enforcement is causing the U.S. migrant crisis to spread beyond the Lone Star State into neighboring regions.   To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com.   Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.   Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. With tens of billions of dollars in new weapons now heading to Ukraine, Russia is countering by wrapping up its own weapons production, which I suppose could be the very definition of an arms race. We'll examine the state of the Russian arms industry after two years of conflict in Ukraine. Coming up later in the show, growing concerns as Iran may be closer than ever to acquiring a nuclear weapon.

well, I am just all sorts of good news today, with the regime ramping up its provocative rhetoric. Plus, we'll explore reports that U.S. Border Patrol agents are questioning Chinese TikTok employees about their links to the Communist Party as they enter the United States, because, of course, if they have links to the Chinese Communist Party, they'll definitely let the customs agent know. And in today's back of the brief, as Texas intensifies its border enforcement, the U.S. migrant crisis is expanding beyond the lone star state. And put another way, Texas has made efforts to secure their border, so the cartels, the coyotes, and others involved in human trafficking,

have looked for other routes outside of Texas. Apparently, I guess, that's how border security works. I'll reveal the emerging hotspots in neighboring states. But first, today's PDB spotlight. With billions of dollars in new Western weapons headed to your country, Ukraine, some of the systems that Kiev was most desperate for are already beginning to make their presence known. On early Tuesday morning, a wave of approximately a dozen long-range attack-em's ballistic missiles pounded Russian air bases and air defense systems across Crimea. Most of the targets that

were hit were out of range of Ukrainian forces just weeks ago prior to the passage of the foreign aid bill. Ukraine's focus on Crimea may be an effort to soften up air defenses on the opposition. occupied peninsula in anticipation of the arrival of F-16s. According to a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force, the aircraft are expected to arrive in Ukraine in the coming weeks. While Russia still maintains an advantage on the battlefield, the arrival of Western weapons will pose a significant threat to Moscow's forces as deliveries ramp up in the coming weeks and months. In response, Russian defense minister Sergei Shogu announced that the nation will be forced to ramp up its own arms production. In a statement posted to telegram,

Shoygu said, quote, To maintain the required pace of the offensive, it is necessary to increase the volume and quality of weapons and military equipment supplied to the troops, primarily weapons, end quote. But two years into the war, has the Russian war industry been able to keep up with demand and the attrition on the battlefield?

And the answer is somewhat. I'll give you two examples. Tank and artillery production, both of which remain key to a potential Russian victory. According to a study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Russian military has been able to boost the output of key weapons systems like tanks, artillery, and munitions. For example, Russia claims that last year it was able to produce over 1,500 tanks, that's about 125 per month, while only losing, they say, between 600 and 874 tanks.

Now, if you're keeping score, and if the Russian claims are accurate, that's roughly a net tank gain of 700 to 800 over the past year. While that bodes well for Moscow's ability to overcome battlefield attrition, it comes with a caveat. First off, the number 1,500 is what Russia claims. Now, I'm not saying that Putin might play fast and loose with claims. Oh, wait, yes, I am. In addition, a significant portion of these new tanks weren't new at all.

Rather, they were refurbished from older models. This refurbishment included older Soviet-era tanks like the T-62 and the T-55, which have been updated now with new technology, including modern optics and radios and additional armor, particularly metal cages designed to defend against drone attacks. The story is similar for artillery. While Russia has been able to increase the output, it continues to rely on its extensive Cold War era stockpiles,

even resorting to cannibalizing older artillery systems to maintain their operational frontline hardware. So while Russia has been able to feed its war machine in Ukraine in terms of quantity, the quality of the weapons it's deploying doesn't necessarily match what's arriving from the West. Now, while that might give hope to supporters of Ukraine, it does draw to mind a quote that's often attributed to Joseph Stalin. And he reportedly said quantity has a quality. all its own. That's Stalin.

What a word smith. Coming up next, we examine the escalating concerns over Iran potentially nearing nuclear capability, amid increasingly hostile rhetoric, might I add. Plus, we explore reports

of U.S. Border Patrol agents asking Chinese TikTok employees about their Communist Party ties upon entry into the United States. I'm sure someone somewhere will find that offensive and possibly complained. I'll be right,

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Start comparing hundreds of sites with kayak and get your trip right. Kayak, got that right. Welcome back. The international community. is growing increasingly concerned about Iran's nuclear program, particularly as Iranian regime leaders hinted a major shift in their nuclear policy. Rafael Grossi, the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog, will travel to Iran next week for a nuclear energy conference hosted by the Islamic regime, oh, that's nice, where he'll meet with the head of Iran's civilian nuclear program,

according to a report from the Associated Press. Now, while officials with the the International Atomic Energy Agency or the IAEA have not publicly elaborated on Grossy's schedule, the conference comes at a time of very strange relations between Iran and the UN. Back in September, less than a month before the 7-October attacks on Israel, Iran expelled several senior UN nuclear inspectors from their country in what the IA called an, quote, unprecedented move. While UN monitoring is still being conducted in Iran, well, monitoring, of sorts, IAEA surveillance cameras have reportedly faced significant disruptions, raising

questions about just what Iranian scientists are up to at their nuclear sites. Geez, what could they be up to? How are we ever going to figure that one out? And as we've regularly covered on the PDB, Iranian officials have also been increasingly threatening to pursue nuclear weapons as the war in Gaza drags on. But the head of Iran's civilian nuclear program put a positive spin on the turmoil and remarks on Wednesday. day, saying, quote, I am sure that the ambiguities will be resolved and we can strengthen our relations with the agency, end quote. Well, not to be cynical, but I give the chances of that happening roughly somewhere between none and zero. The Iranian regime has spent decades resisting

efforts to fully monitor and evaluate their nuclear program. They have refused access or monitoring of key facilities. They've lied and they've obfuscated, all while continuing their efforts to develop their nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities as they move closer to breakout. Intelligence indicates that Iran now has ample stores of 60% enriched uranium, putting them alarmingly close to the 90% threshold that is considered weapons grade. A report by the IAEA in March concluded that Iran has enough near-weapons-grade uranium to build at least two nuclear weapons in a relatively short amount of time. Disturbingly, officials in Iran have also pivoted from their usual nuclear rhetoric, which

tends to be full of denials regarding their pursuit of atomic weapons to openly discussing now the possibility of changing its nuclear doctrine from civilian to military. Some senior leaders within the IRGC have even stated that Iran may act to develop a nuclear weapon in light of perceived threats from Israel and Western powers. according to her report from the non-profit Jewish News Syndicate. Just last month, for example, a brigadier general in the IRGC said the regime would move forward with plans to produce a bomb if they feel threatened by Israel. Several days later, a senior member of Iran's national security committee said,

quote, if approval is given by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Harmony, it will be a week until the first nuclear test, end quote. Earlier that month, state media in Iran claimed the regime had the technologically. to produce a nuclear warhead and would consider using it against Israel if the conflict persists. Now, mind you, the Iranian-sponsored Hamas started the conflict. It's worth noting, however, that these statements from the Iranian regime are often followed by denials from Iran's foreign ministry. While the statements are often contradictory, it appears that the regime is deliberately trying to normalize the idea of a nuclear Iran within their own borders and abroad.

All right, on that cheery note, I want to turn our attention back stateside, where U.S. Border Patrol agents have reportedly been questioning employees of TikTok to root out potential Chinese Communist Party spies, because there is no better way to root out a Chinese Communist Party spy than to straight up ask them if they're a spy. Spies barely just can't resist being truthful. As we've regularly discussed on the PDB, TikTok, owned by Chinese-based bite dance, has long been in the crosshairs of U.S. lawmakers over concerns that the app's data is being harvested by the CCP in China. According to an exclusive report from Forbes, more than 30 bike dance and TikTok employees have been pulled aside at U.S. airports and questioned in recent months by officers

with U.S. Customs and Border Protection regarding their ties to the CCP. The employees in question regularly traveled between the U.S. and China, raising concerns among officials about possible espionage or infiltration. Anonymous sources told Forbes that the Customs and Border Patrol agents probe the employee's social and professional networks within China, their education background, and their political connections. They also wanted to know what kind of access bite dance and TikTok have regarding data on American users of the platform. Additionally, the agents inquired about the location of TikTok's data centers in the U.S., as well as information regarding Project Texas. That's an initiative TikTok presented to U.S. regulators in 2020 to supposedly

isolate and protect U.S. user data. As we've previously covered on the PDB, reports indicate that data continues to be shared outside of the isolated network despite TikTok's promises. A spokesperson for the CBP told Business Insider, quote, CBP is tasked with protecting our nation's borders, as well as enforcing numerous laws at our nation's ports of entry. All international travelers attempting to enter the United States, including all U.S. citizens, are subject to examination. End quote. Now, TikTok has not yet commented on the report. And it's worth remembering the reach of the app with the United States is amazing. Some 170 million Americans reportedly use the app. And under Chinese cybersecurity laws,

the company is required to share all-user data with the CCP upon request. The revelation comes as Congress recently passed a law that would either force a sale of TikTok or otherwise ban its use within the U.S. The legislation, which was tied to foreign aid packages for Israel and Ukraine, gives bite dance up to a year to sell the app. Now, if they can't find a willing buyer in that time, the app would be banned from American app stores, At which point, tens of millions of tweens, teens, and 20-somethings will put down their phones, go outside, and engage in physical activity and human interaction.

Nah, just kidding. They'll just move on to the next app. Up next, in today's back of the brief, as Texas steps up at border enforcement, the U.S. migrant crisis spreads to neighboring states. We'll look at the latest popular locations along the border for those looking to enter the U.S. I'll be right back. In today's back of the brief, Texas Governor Greg Abbott's Operation Lone Star continues to bear fruit three years after it launched. With the Texas border now flooded with extra law enforcement, national guard troops, and barriers, it looks like illegal migrants are beginning to shift their crossing patterns over to the western part of this country.

Now, to understand what's going on, it's important to get a lay of the land. America's border with Mexico is divided into a total of nine, sectors. Five of those sectors are located in Texas, with the El Paso sector being shared by both Texas and New Mexico. The remaining four sectors are split between Arizona and California. Historically, the five sectors in Texas have always recorded more migrant encounters than the other four sectors. However, in recent months, that trend has begun to change. So far in 2024, each month has seen more encounters in the non-Texas sectors, for example, according to Customs of Border Protection Statistics, the month of March saw around 137,000 crossings at the southern border.

Of those, around 54,000 took place along the Texas border, while over 83,000 occurred in the other states. So, the migrants, looking to cross into the U.S., have clearly begun to shift away from the more heavily fortified Texas border. The sectors that have seen the largest increases are the San Diego sector in California and the Tucson sector in Arizona. Both states, may I point out, have Democratic governors and far more lax border enforcement policies. In this fiscal year, San Diego has seen a 70% increase, while Tucson has experienced a 134% surge. As you probably suspect, the surge in both California and Arizona is taking its toll on the local communities there. The Department of Homeland Security recently released millions of dollars to help San Diego deal with its surge.

but local officials are skeptical that the money will do any good considering the policies that are in place. San Diego supervisor Jim Desmond said to the funding, quote, the recent allocation of $19 million in federal dollars will not solve the crisis, as the money will not be used to protect the border, but only allow for more concierge service to get migrants to their destinations across the United States, end quote. Now, that might actually be one of the most sensible and honest, comments we've heard in recent times from a government official. So to summarize, why the shift in locations being used by cartels and others involved in human trafficking? Well, Texas tightened

security on their border, and now there's a decrease in border crossings in Texas. Oh, such a surprise. Make it more difficult to cross the border illegally and folks look for an easier spot. That's rocket science. And because the federal government has basically failed in their responsibility to ensure national and public security through a secure border process, and because California and Arizona state leaders aren't inclined to follow Governor Abbott's lead and improve security on their own, Arizona and California sectors, congratulations, are now the new preferred locations for human trafficking and those looking to cross into the U.S. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Thursday, the 2nd of May. If you have any questions or comments,

reach out to me at PDB at thefirstTV.com. And to listen to the show ad-free, remember, become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting pdbpremium.com. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.