The President's Daily Brief - May 7th, 2024: Ceasefire Confusion, Putin’s Power, & Drone Dynamics

Episode Date: May 7, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief:   The IDF has begun operations in Rafah just hours after Hamas announced would accept a deal to halt the seven-month-long war with Israel in Gaza—something Israeli officials dismissed as a ceasefire ploy. Vladimir Putin begins his fifth term as President of Russia, leveraging the war in Ukraine to solidify his authority. We take a look into how drone warfare is reshaping the modern battlefield and why America is struggling to adapt to this critical technology for national security. In our Back of the Brief segment, we discuss the fallout from anti-Israel protests on college campuses, including Columbia University's cancellation of its commencement ceremony. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.   Email: [e-mail]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Come on. Get up to 40% off at shopbeam.com slash PDB and use the code PDB. It's Tuesday, 7 May. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. We'll start things off to date with the latest from the conflict in Gaza as the IDF begins targeted operations in Rafah. Now, the offensive began just hours after Hamas announced that they would accept a deal to halt the seven-month-long war with Israel in Gaza, a war, of course,

which Hamas started. That announcement followed an earlier statement that they would walk away from the negotiating table. Israeli officials have dismissed Hamas's acceptance of a deal as a ceasefire ploy. Now, essentially what happened, to be brief, was Hamas outplayed Israel, pretending to walk away from the negotiations, and then waiting for Israel to step into their operations in Rafah, and then suddenly announcing that they would accept the ceasefire deal proposed by Egypt and Qatar. Once again, despite being a terrorist organization and being responsible for all the current carnage, Hamas appears to win the public relations battle that's being waged on the international stage. Later in the show, we'll move on to Moscow, where Vladimir Putin has officially been sworn in for another six-year term.

It's another one as president of the Russian Federation. It is amazing to me that he was able to pull off a victory. I mean, what with all the political competition during the recent election. With almost a quarter century at the helm, we'll look into how Putin, Putin has used the war in Ukraine to solidify his authority and transform Russia's landscape. Plus, we'll explore how drone warfare is reshaping the modern battlefield and why America is struggling to adapt to this technology that's critical to the national security. Finally, in today's back of the brief, we'll have the latest fallout from anti-Israel protests

on college campuses, with Columbia University being the late. latest to cancel its commencement ceremony. Now, parents and actual students who are not engaged in Hamas cosplay can thank non-student activists and pro-Hamas outside groups for ruining what otherwise would be a memorable and cherished event. But first, today's PDB spotlight. I want to begin with the chaotic ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, which come as Israel begins targeted strikes on the final Hamas stronghold of Rafa. Hamas triggered a whirlwind of confusion, after they seemingly agreed to a ceasefire deal on Monday just hours before Israel was set to begin targeted strikes in the southern Gaza city of Rafa,

where the remaining remnants of the militant group are hiding out. Less than 24 hours before their unilateral announcement, Hamas had indicated that they were walking away from the negotiating table, only, of course, to change their time. tune Monday morning. Now, the whiplash-inducing negotiations left many questioning Hamas's motives and whether it was a serious attempt at a ceasefire or a ploy to paint Israel as the aggressor ahead of their anticipated operations in Rafah. Now, pragmatic folks, with knowledge of Hamas's track record and pattern of behavior, yeah, they would call it a ploy. Hamas' surprise ceasefire announcement triggered a wave of protests in Tel Aviv.

where hundreds gathered outside the main military headquarters, including groups representing the families of hostages, to demand the government accept the ceasefire rather than continue military operations in Rafah. After several hours of contradictory media reports, Israel officials said that Hamas' ceasefire offer was a, quote, deception, saying that the deal Hamas agreed to is a watered-down version of what negotiators had discussed with Israel,

and that it fails to include a number of non-negotiable demands from the Israeli side. Seeing as it's a softened proposal that was not formally presented to Israel, the officials said leaders in Jerusalem are not taking the offer seriously. Still, a representative for the office of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israel will dispatch a team of negotiators to Cairo on Tuesday to, quote, exhaust all options. In a statement, Netanyahu's office said, quote, while the Hamas proposal is far from meeting Israel's core demands, Israel will dispatch a

ranking delegation to Egypt in an effort to maximize the possibility of reaching an agreement on terms acceptable to Israel, end quote. In the meantime, Israel's war cabinet unanimously voted on Monday to proceed with targeted operations in Rafah with the goal of, quote, making progress on freeing the hostages. Shortly after the vote, IDF officials, confirmed that they were, quote, conducting targeted strikes against Hamas terror targets in Eastern Rafa. Now, Hamas responded by firing rockets at Israel, though officials said all were intercepted by the Iron Dome Defense System. The usual chorus of Middle Eastern leaders, including officials in Jordan and Saudi Arabia, were quick to condemn the Israeli strikes. A statement from

the foreign ministry of Saudi Arabia went as far as to call Israel's operations in Gaza a genocide, Well, that's helpful, while the foreign minister of Jordan said Israel was jeopardizing a potential ceasefire deal by proceeding with strikes inside Rafa. As we discussed yesterday on the show, Israel began ordering tens of thousands of Palestinians to begin evacuating Eastern Rafa on Monday to a nearby Israel declared humanitarian zone called Mawesi, a makeshift tent city along the Gaza coast. It does not appear, however, that this is the start of Israel's long-promised ground invasion of Rafa. Notably, IDF officials said that Monday's evacuation is part of preparations for a, quote,

limited scope operation. According to reports from last week, a full-scale operation in Rafa will move forward in stages, with the IDF, providing advance warning to the local population before targeting specific areas of the city. reports have also indicated that any large-scale operations in Rafa would begin with a multi-week evacuation of over one million Palestinians from the city. Now, the Biden administration, meanwhile, said that they are reviewing the ceasefire proposal from Hamas and said they reiterated to Netanyahu on Monday their opposition to a ground assault in Rafa. A spokesman for the U.S. State Department said, quote, we continue to believe that a hostage deal is in the best interest. of the Israeli people. It's in the best interest of the Palestinian people, and it would bring increased movement of humanitarian assistance, and so we're going to continue to work to try to reach one,

end quote. U.S. officials gave an update following IDF strikes in Eastern Rafa on Monday evening, noting that while they are, quote, concerned by the activity, it does not appear to represent a major military operation. All right. Coming up after the break, Vladimir Putin is sworn for his fifth term as Russia's president. Who saw that coming? And we'll examine how drone warfare is reshaping the modern battlefield and why America is struggling to keep up. I'll be right back. Starting a business can seem like a daunting task, unless you have a partner like Shopify. They have the tools you need to start and grow your business. From designing a website to marketing to selling and beyond, Shopify can help with everything you need. There's a reason,

millions of companies like Mattel, Heinz, and all birds continue to trust and use them. With Shopify on your side, turn your big business idea into? Sign up for your $1 per month trial at Shopify.com slash special offer. Welcome back. During a ceremony at the Kremlin early this morning, Vladimir Putin was sworn in for his fifth term as president of the Russian Federation. Putin, who won more than 87% of the vote, sure he did, in his nation's presidential election, oh, I'm sorry, his election, is that the term for an uncontested event where the result is never in question? But I digress. Anyway, Putin has been in power in Russia for just under a quarter century, first as prime minister,

and then as president, with a brief interruption, during which his sock puppet, Dmitri Medvedev, served in his stead as he wielded power from behind the scenes. As you can imagine, a lot has changed since Putin took power. In the wake of the Cold War, some had hoped that Russia would move toward liberalization. Well, those hopes have been dashed by Putin, whose regime has become increasingly authoritarian, a trend that has accelerated since his 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Recent reporting from the Washington Post sheds light on how Putin has leveraged the war in Ukraine to tighten his grip on power in Russia. The The Post's analysis suggests that Putin is positioning Russia as a global superpower opposing

the United States, forming military alliances with other authoritarian regimes like China, Iran, and North Korea. It's all very reminiscent of the Soviet era, but now framed around championing Orthodox Christian values and opposing what he considers the excesses of Western liberalism. Putin's regime has notably prioritized defending Orthodox values against Western cultural influences, going as far as defining them as crucial to Russia's national security. Now, this stance in part is a part of a broader narrative aimed at wooing socially conservative nations globally. Moreover, Putin's government has militarized Russian society by rewarding war veterans and their families with educational opportunities, introducing military training in schools, and promoting a patriotic fervor in the education system.

The report also highlights Putin's efforts to glorify figures like Joseph Stalin, and who doesn't have fond memories of old Joe Stalin? What a scamp he was, while Putin also works to rewrite history to downplay Soviet crimes, further consolidating a narrative of Russia's resurgence as a global power. these developments are accompanied by a crackdown on dissent and personal freedoms within Russia. Putin's administration has made protests illegal, these criminalized criticism of the war, and labeled opposition groups and individuals as foreign agents or extremists, and leading to a wave of political activism suppression and an exodus of Russians fleeing the country.

Independent journalists have also become a favorite target of the Putin regime, as we reported here on the PDB. Just last week, the government arrested three Russian journalists, all of whom worked for Western outlets, including Forbes, Reuters, and the Associated Press. And, of course, please, let's not forget Evan Gershkovitz and Paul Weillen when talking about Putin's despotism. All right, shifting gears. I want to take a look at American naval might and reports suggesting that the U.S. is falling behind our adversaries when it comes to sea drone warfare. An exclusive report from Reuters found that efforts by the U.S. Navy to build a next-generation fleet of sea drones are being hampered by Pentagon leaders that are still more focused on large shipbuilding projects, and that's according to DOD insiders and

executives at American defense contractors. Not to mention that experienced lobbyists well-versed in how defense dollars flow are integral to ensuring the legacy defense contractors have an outsized voice in DOD procurement budgeting. The current DOD budget process reportedly prioritizes these large-scale ventures, leaving little left over for smaller projects. Insiders say the Pentagon's myopic focus is leaving America's Navy vulnerable at a time when sea drones are redefining modern warfare. Now, over the past two years, we've seen the technology leveraged to great success by Ukraine's military, helping them devastate Russia's Black Sea fleet. We've also seen the Iranian-backed Houthi militants employ sea drones in an attempt to cause havoc on international

shipping in the Red Sea. Pentagon spokesman Eric Bahon said the Navy is working to bypass the DoD budget process for projects that are seen as a priority. and is incorporating lessons learned from these conflicts to their efforts to combat Chinese aggression in the South Pacific. As an example, Bohun cited the Pentagon's secretive project dubbed Replicator, which aims to fast-track the deployment of thousands of relatively cheap air and sea drones to counter China's capabilities. It called for the production of 120 vessels per year, with the first deployment scheduled for April of 2025. While the plan was announced, last August, with a production window of 18 to 24 months, little has been revealed about the program

until this week. On Monday, Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks provided an update, revealing they had purchased their first batch of autonomous surface vehicles, as well as an unspecified set of counter-dron systems, and that's according to a report from Defense News. Additional contracts for drones are expected to be awarded by the Pentagon this summer under the replicator program. While the update mentioned the acquisition of surface drones, officials said that most of the maritime systems under development remain highly classified. Well, that's a good thing. To get around the DoD budget process, officials are funding the program for this fiscal year by using some 200 million in existing Pentagon funds, along with 300 million in reallocated funds

from Congress. Still, the Navy faces an uphill climb when it comes to next-generalds. Maritime Warfare. First off, there is the issue of technical know-how. Officials have warned that they have a shortage of sailors who are trained to pilot drones or analyze the massive amounts of data that they collect. Furthermore, contractors have been put off by the lack of long-term clarity around funding. Yeah, lack of clarity around funding will put contractors off. The Navy's current budget only has $172 million available for the development of small and medium-sized underwater sea drones. And interestingly, that figure will drop to just $101 million in 2025. Now, that's a drop in the bucket when compared to the total proposed $63 billion Navy procurement budget for 2025.

All right, coming up next in today's back of the brief. the latest fallout from anti-Israel protests on American universities as Columbia announces its canceling its campus-wide commencement ceremony. Oh, well done, activists and outside agitators. You've canceled an event that students and families remember for a lifetime because of your anti-Semitic protests that nobody will remember this time next year. More on that when we come back. This is Euphoria Calvin Klein, the new elixir collection, featuring three perfume intense scents, inspired by a unique orchid accord, paired with vanilla, each with its own distinct attitude, each with its own universe, bold elixir, sensual, woody, addictive, magnetic elixir, sweet and romantic like a lingering touch, solar elixir, a radiant expression of joy, ultra-concentrated for amplified impact and lasting power. Find your euphoria. Discover the Euphoria Elixir Collection by Calvin,

and climb. Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money, whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto's trillion dollar swings. There's a money side to every story. Get the money side of the story. Subscribe now at Bloomberg.com. In today's back of the brief, the fallout from the mass anti-Israel protest continues for

students at Columbia University. On Monday, officials at the school announced that they were canceling their traditional school-wide commencement ceremony, which was scheduled to be held next Wednesday. Instead, the Upper Manhattan School said it would hold, quote, smaller-scale school-based celebrations. Now, none of the school ceremonies will be held on the campus's South Lawn, where up until recently, hundreds of protesters were encamped, leaving the area a total mess. Most of the ceremonies will now take place at Columbia's sports complex, which is about five miles away. University spokesman Ben Chang said, quote,

holding a large commencement ceremony on our campus presented security concerns that unfortunately proved insurmountable. Like our students, we are deeply disappointed with this outcome, end quote. Now, one student interviewed by the New York Post, said, quote, I guess the pro humouse crowd got the final FU, end quote. The White House also weighed in on Columbia's decision. During Monday's White House briefing, press secretary Corinne Jean-Pierre told reporters, quote, It's unfortunate that a small group of people went too far and caused their classmates this important event, end quote.

So KJP summarizes the chaos as, quote, a small group of people went too far. And for that, KJP is awarded today's PDB Moronic Statement of the Day Award. Meanwhile, other universities continue to grapple with pro-tebrose. on their campuses. Police and riot gear clashed with anti-Israel protesters at the University of California, San Diego, yesterday, after authorities dismantled a so-called Gaza Solidarity encampment. Isn't that sweet? According to authorities, 64 demonstrators were arrested for unlawful assembly. Now, if the averages from other arrests hold true, then approximately half of those arrested at UC San Diego will have no connection or affiliation to the university.

According to a statement from the school, the actual students who were arrested have been or will be placed under immediate interim suspension, which is somewhat better than facing secret double probation. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Tuesday, 7 May. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb at thefirsttv.com. And as you've probably heard during major radio and television broadcasts, If you want to listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting pdb premium.com. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.

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