The President's Daily Brief - November 10th, 2022. Special Brief: Exploring the International Impact of Our Midterm Elections

Episode Date: November 10, 2022

It’s November 10th. You’re listening to the President’s Daily Brief. Your morning intel starts now. ------ We are two days out from America’s midterm elections. The Republicans have probably won the House of Representatives; confirmation likely sometime today. The Senate, however, is still up for grabs.   I’ll leave it to others to get into the nitty gritty of all that, but here’s the bottom line: assuming Republicans take control of the House, things are likely going to be different in Washington DC.   But how different will it be? That’s a question that not only Americans are asking this morning but also the politicians, diplomats, and spies in places like Mexico, China, and Russia.   And that will be the focus of today’s special brief: How will this election affect our foreign relations? And how will that affect you? Because that’s what I’m most interested in here at the PDB: how all this foreign stuff impacts your daily lives and that of your family.  ------ Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of the President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's November 10th. You're listening to a special edition of the President's Daily Brief. I'm your host and former CIA officer Brian Dean Wright. Your morning intel starts now. We are two days out from America's midterm elections. The Republicans have probably won the House of Representatives, although confirmation still to come. The Senate, however, is going to be up for grabs for a while. I'll leave it to others to get into the nitty-gritty of all those details, but here's the bottom line. assuming Republicans take control of the House, things are likely going to be different in Washington, D.C. But how different will they be? That's the question that not only Americans are asking themselves this morning, but also the politicians and diplomats and spies in places like Mexico, China, and Russia.

And that will be the focus of today's special brief. How will this election affect our foreign relations? And how will that affect you? because that's what I'm most interested in. How will all this foreign stuff impact you in your daily lives and that of your family? So let's get started and let's get started with this. Foreign policy is usually the world of fancy people, isn't it? But actually, if you really stop and think about it,

foreign policy is really important to normal folks like you and I. So for instance, illegal migration through Mexico costs you as a taxpayer anywhere from 50, billion to 116 billion each year. Meanwhile, our trade relationship with China, what's very, very important in terms of how it affects our consumers, the factories and farmers, say nothing of the growing prospect of war with Beijing that your kids and grandkids would have to fight in. And speaking of war, of course, we can't forget the war in Ukraine. There is obviously the risk of a nuclear war with Russia. We are adding billions of dollars to our national debt. Plus, the war is, and is driving up the prices that you pay for electricity and gas, diesel, and heating oil. In other words,

foreign policy matters to all of us. And while, look, we could probably spend weeks talking about all the different countries that affect our lives. Let's spare my voice in your ears and instead focus today on just three countries, Mexico, China, and Russia. And we'll first start with Mexico. To refresh our memories here, it's fair to argue that America doesn't have an effective southern border this morning. And that's because the data show a record number of illegal migrants have come into this country. In fact, each year for the past three years, with over two million just in 2022. Plus, we've seen a steady flow of illegal drugs for Mexico, especially fentanyl, which has killed a record 107,000 plus people in just the last year alone. and both of those horrible things are being facilitated by Mexican cartels and their corrupt friends,

frankly, in the Mexican government. So here's the question. Will the midterm election change our border policies or our relationship with Mexico? Well, the short answer is probably not, and here's why. The Biden administration has known for several years that this effective collapse of the border is real, and it's been growing. The numbers have made that very clear. But Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris have said that the solution to this problem is that we must get to the root cause of it and not put up a wall or deport illegals back home.

In fact, I gave you a brief on that back on July 27th. But to refresh our memories, Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris want American taxpayers like you to fund programs that will root out corruption and solve poverty and create law and order in countries like, like Mexico plus Honduras, El Salvador, and so on. But to state the obvious, that's not working. I gave you some good details on that during the July 27th brief. So, for instance, how some former presidents, defense ministers and prosecutors in places like Mexico and throughout Central America, they're just rotten to the core, from embezzlement to cartel connections.

In other words, we don't have good consistent partners to tackle those root causes. but nevertheless, it will likely still remain the Biden administration's policy for the next two years, although, because of the midterm elections, there is one possibility for change. That's because House Republicans, if they take the majority, have two very powerful tools, money and investigations. Let's first talk about the money. So what you might remember from civics classes is that bills funding the U.S. government have to start in the House. that means the party who controls that chamber has a pretty substantial power on what we fund. That includes things like border security or these root causes programs that run hundreds of billions of dollars in total.

But the real question is, will Republicans use their newfound leverage to demand changes? Well, that's unknown. Now, they've said that they will, but, well, politicians say lots of things. regardless, when I know which representatives have that, shall we say, power of the purse, I'm going to let you know so that you can ride in and you can contact those folks and let your voices be heard. Meanwhile, let's talk about that second piece, the investigations. If Republicans control the House as expected, they can hold hearings or investigations into agencies like the Department of Homeland Security, which of course oversees the border, or the State Department, which manages some of those root causes,

programs. And if Republicans do this, they could investigate and publicize the failures at our border, for instance, or the root causes programs. And then those findings will be used to both influence and inform all of us, and perhaps embarrass or shame Mr. Biden into changing his Mexico policies. Now, will either of those things work in the short term, that is, using the money or the investigations, to change policies? Well, we're going to find out pretty soon. And I'll keep you posted. Meanwhile, let's consider what the Mexican government thinks of this midterm election result. Was it good or was it bad for them? Well, I've spoken with some analysts who follow this issue and their assessment is that Mexican government officials are probably relieved that

Republicans didn't capture more power given the GOP's focus on a stronger border and less foreign aid. My sources also added that Mexico's president, Mr. Lopez Obrador, doesn't especially worry about Mr. Biden because, better or worse, he views Mr. Biden as weak. In fact, I briefed you on some of this back on July 21st if you want to dig into that episode. So all in all, folks, if Republicans capture the House as expected, you should anticipate that they are going to use their tools of money and investigations to push Biden to do things differently in Mexico. and Central America. Meanwhile, the Mexican government, now they're feeling pretty good this morning. The midterm elections could have been much worse

if Republicans had taken more power. All right. Now, let's move on from Mexico to China. And let's actually start with how China views America. Because before the election, Beijing's view was that America, all right, we're important. Our military is powerful, it's true. We also share 600 billion.

in trade each year, but America, they think, is growing weak. We are a declining power in their eyes. And unfortunately, this election didn't change that view. Folks with whom I've spoken who follow China very closely say that given the deeply divided House, the unsettled Senate vote, plus Mr. Biden's continued low popularity, well, you combine all of that, and Beijing still sees us as growing weak and in decline. But is China right on that? Well, look, lots of opinions, but there's one thing that we know for sure. Whether you're talking to a Republican or a Democrat, either in a House or the Senate,

China is generally speaking the greatest foreign threat on their mind. And the same is true in most of the executive branch, too. For instance, the Secretary of Defense issued a report a couple weeks back, which rated China the number one threat to our country. But, you know, talk is. awfully cheap, isn't it? Because we have heard politicians on both sides of the aisle talk very forcefully about China for a long time with very little consequence. In fact, if you want to learn more about that, you can listen to a brief that I gave you back on July 8th, but to refresh our

memories, presidents going all the way back to Ronald Reagan have been warning China to stop stealing our intellectual property amongst other things, but very little has come of it. Now, as depressing as that is, there's actually reason to think that maybe, just maybe, we might be at a turning point with our relationship with China. And that's because of a very strange little date, the year 2027. So for my military buffs out there, you know that that year is the 100-year anniversary of China's army. And President Xi of China has said or alluded to the fact that he wants to take back Taiwan by that 100-year anniversary, even if it requires a war to do it. So that helps explain why our military and state department have said in the last couple of months

that we could see conflict with China, including a war. And that also helps explain why you're actually seeing some bipartisan plans to push back and fix some, well, key weaknesses in our relationship with China. And one weakness in particular is related to computer chips. I actually gave you a brief back on August 6th,000. But let me refresh your memory on it. The countries of China, Taiwan, and South Korea make most of the world's computer chips. And if war came with China and we lost that supply, America would be in really big trouble.

Modern life runs on those chips from our cars to our hospitals. So that's why Congress passed something called the Chips and Science Act back in August. It was a bipartisan $280 billion bill to bring some of that computer chip manufacturing ability back to America. And yet, as PDB listeners know, there are other signs that some politicians are actually backsliding on China, even with this growing threat of war. So, for instance, of course, dirty green energy. As listeners know from our series that started back on September 12th or so, most of the solar panels and all of the batteries, in the world virtually are manufactured in China. And our efforts to bring that capacity here to America,

it's not going to happen for at least a decade and probably longer. Meanwhile, do you remember the brief that I gave you on China buying America farmland? I want to refresh your memory on that one. Joe Biden's national security spokesman was presented with data, with facts on indeed the Chinese government and Chinese officials, communist officials, were purchasing land. farmland close to military installations. The national security spokesman for the Biden administration, John Kirby, said that he was

unconcerned about this, calling it a, quote, home ownership issue, end quote, which is exceptionally weird. Anyway, folks, the point is this. There is growing bipartisan awareness and alarm in Washington, D.C., that China is a bad problem. It's growing worse. And by the year 2027, we could be driven. into a war if China invades Taiwan. So thinking about the midterm elections, will Republicans try to push Mr. Biden and his team to do more? Well, I would say yes. And in fact, you can count on it.

And you'll probably see it in part if they conduct an investigation into the origins of COVID, which actually could be bipartisan. And you will definitely see this issue raise its head if they investigate the Biden family's business relationships with China via, of course, Hunter Biden, which I can assure you will not be bipartisan. So folks, let's take a quick break. And when we come back, we are going to wrap this up with Russia. We'll be right back. Loz has the brand's pros trust to get the job done. You can now shop new catalyst fencing solutions and save big when you do 10% off when you buy in bulk. Plus save $180 on a the DeWalk 12-inch dual-bevel sliding compound mitersaw. Now just $449. Our best lineup is here at Lowe's.

Vela through 5-6, wall supplies last. Selection varies by location. Welcome back to the PDB this morning. We are talking about the midterm elections and how that will affect America's foreign policy. And more importantly, how it's going to affect you and your families. We've discussed a bit about Mexico. We've talked some about China. And now Russia, specifically the war in Ukraine. And this one, it's pretty easy for better and worse. The election has changed virtually nothing about our policy with Russia or with the war in Ukraine.

Joe Biden has said, and these are his exact words, that we will be on Ukraine's side for, quote, as long as it takes, end quote. And he's putting your money, by the way, where his mouth is. The running tab for the war in Ukraine is about $60 billion. There's also talk on Capitol Hill that they will pass another bill

in the next couple of months or so that'll total another $50 billion. Now, that's likely to continue even if Republicans take over the House in January. The votes for Ukraine's aid are generally bipartisan and frankly lopsided. There is very little opposition.

Now, it's true, though, that there might be some future debate all because of the midterm elections. So, for instance, the likely future Speaker of the House, a Republican named Kevin McCarthy, has already said that he's not going to allow the House to be a, quote, blank check, end quote, for Ukraine's president Vladimir Zelensky. Either way, now, regardless and nevertheless, I promise you that I will be watching and reporting on this development of how or if the Republicans handle Ukraine policy differently than Democrats or Joe Biden. All right, that leaves us, though, with one final piece about Russia, and that is, what does Moscow think of these midterm elections of Republicans likely taking power in the House?

Well, once again, I've been talking to a few friends who are in the know, and I will tell you that not much has changed from Moscow's perspective. Russia's President Vladimir Putin knows that he is basically at war with America, and he knows that both parties largely plan to keep it up. So his view of America is that, well, we didn't change a lick after the elections. For Moscow, it's damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead. And that, my friends, ends your morning brief on how the midterm elections will shape America's foreign policy and how it will impact families just like yours. But I've got one more thought for you. And it's about how the midterm elections might have changed Mr. Biden as he thinks about

changing his policies, especially foreign policies. And we're going to think about that like we're spies sitting in a foreign capital, trying to figure out Biden's next moves. We'll be right back. USAA knows dynamic duos can save the day, like superheroes and sidekicks or auto and home insurance. With USAA, you can bundle your auto and home and save up to 10%. Tap the banner to learn more and get a quote at usa.com slash bundle. Restrictions apply.

Welcome back to the PDB friends. I've got one more final thought for you this morning on the midterm elections. If you noticed one thread running through all the briefs today on, of course, Mexico, China and Russia, it's that the president of the United States is the driver of America's foreign policy. He's the commander in chief. And while it's true that Republicans in the House or the Senate might have the ability to, say, use money or investigate. The blunt truth is that Joe Biden or anyone sitting in the White House gets a lot of freedom to run our foreign policy. Perhaps we should ask how the elections change Mr. Biden's view of the world. Did anything happen that will fundamentally change his mind about how he wants to do his job, especially in foreign affairs? To answer those questions, let's actually do a thought

experiment. Let's imagine that we are intelligence officers, maybe an analyst, sitting in a foreign capital this morning, say, in London. And our job is to tell our spy chiefs whether the midterm election results somehow shook Joe Biden and Democrats with fear, or rather, did those elections leave Mr. Biden feeling pretty good? Because either way, that would tell us as intelligence officers how weak or strong Mr. Biden might feel in his position as leader. And how, how to how much he might change. Well, you probably heard that Democrats did better than expected on Tuesday. There were lots of polls showing a big red wave, and that just didn't happen.

And in case you're wondering if Mr. Biden is sad about having likely lost the House of Representatives to the Republicans, well, he's not. Yesterday, he told the press that the election was, quote, a good day for democracy, and I think a good day for America, too, end quote. he went on to declare victory actually, noting that it's been decades since a president has escaped the midterm election with his few bruises as he did.

The point is that Mr. Biden is not talking like an electoral loser. He's talking like a guy who feels vindicated by the results. So if we're writing up our intelligence briefs on how likely it is that Mr. Biden will change his ways or work with Republicans on foreign policy, well, the odds of either are pretty slim. Biden feels quite strong this morning as a politician and in his power. And if you like that, well, then very well.

And if you don't, well, good news there too. There's another election in a couple of years. And that, ladies and gentlemen, concludes your morning brief. As always, we close out the show reminding each other of why we are here, talking about our country and our world. It's the creed of every good spy and every smart American. It's from John chapter 8, verse 32. And you shall know the truth.

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