The President's Daily Brief - November 17th, 2022. World War Three isn't Happening... At Least Not Yet.

Episode Date: November 17, 2022

It’s November 17th. You’re listening to the President’s Daily Brief. Your morning intel starts now. ------ A good day to you, ladies and gentlemen. I’ve got five briefs for you this morning that are shaping America — and the world. First, an update out of Ukraine. Looks like we dodged WWIII – for now. I’ll explain. Second, we’ve got some crime numbers out this morning, with one company saying it’s bad and getting worse. Third, voters in Maryland and Missouri legalized marijuana last week. But I’ve got two studies just out that says, maybe they shouldn’t have. Fourth, the Biden Administration is saying that we’re about to see an historic wave of student loan defaults unless people get debt forgiveness. But is that true? I’ve some some data that provides the answer.  And finally, an update I promised you last week on the drought affecting the Mississippi River – and your pocket book. Plus, we wrap up the podcast later with a study showing how important it is to live a life with purpose. ------ Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of the President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Own it all. Pay off your home, travel for life, drive a Ferrari. In celebration of the world premiere of the Monopoly Big Board Buckslot Machine by Aristocrat Gaming, Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is giving one person a $1.6 million dream package. The biggest prize in Yamava's history. Club Serrano members can earn daily instant prizes

and secure a spot in the finale May 29th. Don't pass go and own it all. Only at Yamava, celebrating its 40th anniversary. You win? Details at yamava.com must be 21-20. Please gamble responsibly. Monopoly is a trademark of Hasbro. Hasbro is not a sponsor of this promotion.

It's November 17th. You're listening to the President's Daily Brief. I'm your host and former CIA officer Brian Dean Wright. Your morning intel starts now. A good day to you, ladies and gentlemen. I've got five briefs for you this morning that are shaping America and the world. First, an update out of Ukraine. Looks like we dodged World War III, at least for now. I'll explain.

Second, we've got some crime numbers out this morning with one company saying that it is bad and getting worse. Third, voters in Maryland at Missouri legalized marijuana last week, but I got two studies out that say, well, maybe they shouldn't have. Fourth, the Biden administration is saying that we are on the verge of seeing an historic wave of student loan defaults unless folks get some debt forgiveness. But is that true? I've got some data that provides the answer. And finally, an update that I promised you last week on the drought affecting the Mississippi River. And your pocketbook. Plus, we wrap up the podcast later with a study showing how important it is to live a life with purpose. But before we get to that, we got to get started with this,

the war in Ukraine. That is where we begin this morning talking about the fallout from yesterday's big news of who bombed not Ukraine, but the neighboring country of Poland. To refresh our memories on that, Russia launched a wave of 100 missiles on Monday, hitting. cities throughout Ukraine and knocking out power to at least 7 million Ukrainians. At the same time that those missiles were flying, there was an explosion in the neighboring country of Poland, which as I mentioned yesterday is sort of a distribution center for all the weaponry that we and Europe are sending to Ukraine. So the question that we talked about yesterday was, who dropped that bomb on that very tiny Polish city? And why did they do it? Well, we know a little bit more

this morning, virtually everybody from Joe Biden to leaders throughout Europe are now in agreement that the missile that bombed that tiny Polish town was fired not by the Russians. Instead, the missile actually came from the Ukrainians. Oh dear. The belief as of this morning is that as the Russians were firing their 100 missiles on Monday, the Ukrainians fired their own missiles back to counteract them. to shoot them down. Well, apparently one of those went astray and somehow landed in Poland, killing two people and blowing up a wheat silo. Now, this is a plausible, although peculiar scenario. And it involves something that you might not know. Both Russia and Ukraine are firing weapons from the era of the Soviet Union. And that includes missiles that don't self-destruct after you fire

them, meaning that if you launch one of these old Soviet-designed missiles, well, that thing is going to fly until it runs out of fuel, and then it's going to drop to the ground, wherever that might be. But more modern missiles, including some that America have, well, those things do have a self-destruct mechanism. That triggers when the missile realizes that it has missed its target. That helps minimize undesired damage. So is that what happened here? That's a self-destruct mechanism? That's Ukraine's missiles missed its target and just kept flying? Or is there something more? Perhaps a skeptic might say. Ukraine purposely fired off a missile into Poland to convince the world that Russia was attacking a NATO member. And if so, that would mean that all members of that military alliance, to include the U.S.,

would have to rush into the war, which, just to be really clear here, would be World War III. So I don't know if that is true or even likely, but I do know this. As of this morning, Ukraine's president, Vladimir Zelensky, refuses to accept any responsibility that it was his missile that struck Poland. On Ukrainian television last night, Zelenskyy said, quote, I have no doubt that it was not our missile, end quote, he went on to say that his military intelligence has assured him that it wasn't theirs. So bottom line is that we still don't have total clarity on what happened.

But there is clearly a division between America and our friends in Ukraine on this issue. Zelensky is absolutely sticking to his guns or missiles, no pun intended. Although this insistence of being right when virtually everybody from Joe Biden to Europe thinks that he's wrong, well, it's just a little bit odd. And with that, let's briefly pivot from facts and data on this story to analysis and opinion. And I want to leave you with this. The longer that this war continues, the greater the chances that an event like this escalates us into World War III. And the reason is pretty simple.

The longer that the war goes on, the more and more missiles and bombs fly and drop, obviously. And that means, of course, that ships are going to sink and more buildings are going to get destroyed. and each time that that happens, there's a chance that a missile or a bomb hits the wrong target, like in Poland. And then a politician, whether it be an American or European, makes the decision that no matter what the facts are, we are going to use that moment to escalate to war. Or the politician feels somehow boxed in to declare war.

And before you dismiss either of those possibilities, remember, that is exactly what happened before in Iraq 20 years ago. America declared war over weapons of mass destruction that just weren't there, but it didn't matter. And that's because the political decision to invade had already been made. For what it's worth, I want to raise one last thing with you. In fact, it's a call for peace coming out of the Pentagon. Yesterday at a news conference, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, a general Mark Millie, He was speaking about the prospects for peace in Ukraine.

And he said that Ukraine was actually in a relatively strong position, having beat up the Russians over the past few months. And then he added this. You want to negotiate at a time when you are at your greatest strength and your opponent is at its weakest. And then it's possible maybe that there can be a diplomatic and political solution. All I'm saying is that there is a possibility for it, end quote. And you know what? I think he's right. Right now there is a wintertime window for peace.

Both sides are cold, snow is starting to fall, and morale, at least for the Russians, is low. And so if America and Europe choose not to push Ukraine in this moment towards a peace deal, well, then there's your political decision. But I'll tell you, from my optic anyway, that the wise man in this situation would remember the past 48 hours. Because the next time, that a missile lands in Poland, and that will happen, the longer that this war continues, well, cooler heads might not prevail in that scenario. And the consequences of that is both horrific and unimaginable. With that, ladies and gentlemen, let's take a quick break.

And when we come back, we are going to pivot to America's domestic affairs with four more critical pieces of news. We'll be right back. You tell yourself, no one wants your college-era band teas, but on Deep Hop, people are searching for exactly what you've got. You once paid a small fortune for them at merch stands. Now, a teenager who calls them vintage will offer that same small fortune back. Sell them easily on D-pop.

Just snap a few photos and we'll take care of the rest. Who knew your questionable music taste would be a money-making machine? Your style can make you cash. Start selling on D-pop, where taste recognizes taste. Welcome back to the PDB. I've got four more critical pieces of news for you this morning. let's stick with a war theme, shall we? Starting with a war on crime. To refresh our memories, we had a lot of politicians arguing over the past couple of months about whether or not America

had a crime problem. Democrats were largely saying no, Republicans on the other hand were largely saying yes. So let me give you just one example. The race for governor in New York, the Democrat there accused her Republican opponent of, quote, hyperventilating about crime, and quote, saying that he was just trying to scare people to the polls. Meanwhile, in neighboring New Jersey, Democrat activists with Black Lives Matter, said that even if there were a crime problem, the solution, quote,

should not be locking more people up for, say, stealing cars, but getting people who steal cars jobs, so they won't ever have to steal a car again. In other words, there is no crime problem, but if there were, it's just desperately, poor people trying to stay alive. So take all of that debate folks and consider this. The retailer Target said yesterday that they were going to lose 600 million more dollars this year compared to last year all because of theft. Specifically they said groups of organized criminals

who are stealing their products and then reselling them on e-commerce websites like Amazon. on. Target added that these thefts were up 50% from last year. This data, by the way, were all shared during a call with shareholders. And for what it's worth, according to the National Retail Federation, Target is not alone in dealing with this theft by organized criminals. So others like Home Depot and T.J. Max all lost $94.5 billion last year because of organized theft and employee theft. and that also led last year to 21 executives from these same retailers to demand the Congress pass a law to increase penalties for organized crime rings. So as always, you can decide what the data say here and whether it settles the debate.

Is crime and theft a problem in America? And if so, are the thieves just poor, destitute people stealing loaves of bread and such? Or do we have large groups of organized. thugs who ought to be tossed in prison. As ever, I will leave that one to you. Let's pivot now from a war on crime to a war on drugs. And we're talking about this because of five ballot initiatives last week that tried to legalize marijuana.

Three of those ballot initiatives failed and two passed. One in Maryland and one in Missouri. So as America continues to debate this issue of legalizing weed, we might want to consider this. On Tuesday, researchers from the University of Ottawa and the Ottawa Hospital released a study showing that marijuana smokers have a higher rate of emphysema and airway diseases as compared to tobacco smokers. The findings which were published in the journal Radiology considered chest CT examinations of 56 marijuana smokers, 33 tobacco smokers, and 57 non-smokers, all between the years of 2005 and 2020.

What they discovered was that marijuana smokers had a far greater rate of what's called parapsetal emphysema and airway inflammatory disease. Meanwhile, there was another study released on Tuesday from researchers at Michigan Medicine, and they looked at whether cannabis use could actually increase the risk of amputation of all things if a patient went in for something called a peripheral artery bypass, which basically involves sort of detouring the blood around a narrowed or blocked artery in one of the legs. After analyzing more than 11,000 cases from Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan patients, they found that, yes, cannabis users were at an increased risk of amputation, though they

didn't spell out the mechanism for why that happens. Still, it builds on previous research that marijuana use increases the risk of both heart attack and stroke. Folks, I'll tell you, I offer this with absolutely no judgment. I have friends who use this stuff for pain. But I think it's important as we debate these issues at the ballot box and in our legislatures that we take a very sober data-driven look at the pros and the cons of this recreational drug, just like we would with any other. So keeping with our theme this morning, let's now talk about America's War on Debt.

Okay, well, that one's probably a stretch. but my point is that debt is bad and Joe Biden thinks so too. That's why he wants to forgive so much of it for students. As PDB listeners know, Mr. Biden has proposed a $400 billion plan to forgive the debt of many of America's students. A judge in Texas, however, put a stop to that plan on Monday, and Mr. Biden's team promised immediately to appeal, an appeal they have. Yesterday, the Biden administration filed that appeal saying that,

Unless they get their debt relief program up and running soon, there will be, quote, a historically large increase of federal student loan delinquency and defaults, end quote. By the way, that's according to the Department of Education's Undersecretary, a fellow named Mr. James Cavall. But is that true? Is Mr. Cavall right? Well, Mr. Biden's team didn't offer any proof, but here's what we know the data show. and in fact, it suggests that Mr. Biden is probably wrong, and here's why. Back in May, the Federal Reserve Bank in Philadelphia released a survey of 13,423 student loan borrowers. They asked these folks whether they needed debt relief.

In other words, they would default if they didn't get some help. And 75% of those borrowers said, nope, I don't need any help. But when they were asked, if they wanted debt relief. In other words, they don't need it. But wow, it would be a sweet deal if they could get out of all their debt. Well, 86% said, yeah, sign me up for that. I'd love to have my debt wiped out, which surprises none of us.

One final thought here. If you're interested in debt relief and are physically fit, you, my friends, can join the U.S. military and get this great benefit. For the U.S. Army, for instance, $50,000. off your student loan debt wiped away forever. You just got a sign on the dotted line and give back to your country. And that takes us to our last brief of the morning. Actually, it's one that I promised you last week.

Darrell and Coatsville, Missouri wrote in asking if I would be covering the crisis on the Mississippi River. As he correctly noted, there's a drought in the Midwest and it's causing river levels to drop. In fact, it's so low in some places that barges are having a really tough time getting through. And that has lots of effects for all of us, from farmers and ranchers to consumers, because lots of agricultural goods in your supermarket go up and down that river. And some of that also feeds other parts of the world, too. Let's put some numbers to this, and let's talk about two important crops, soybeans and corn. The Mississippi River moves about 60% of the U.S. soy and corn crop, especially those bound for other parts of the world. that's according to the USDA.

For soybeans alone, most U.S. exports are actually sent abroad between September and February. Now, normally that wouldn't be such a big deal, but this drought is causing a nightmare for farmers. And that's because some sections of the Mississippi River, especially south of St. Louis, have lost about three feet of depth in places that are normally 12 feet deep. And that means that if barges can't get through, they're having to carry less of a load. otherwise they're going to get stuck on the river bottom. So instead of a barge holding, say, 50,000 bushels, they're dropping down to 30,000 or 35,000.

Well, in turn, that's driving shipping costs way up. I read an interview with a farmer out in LeCenter, Kentucky. His name is Alan Pace. He's got a farm that's just shy where the Ohio meets the Mississippi. And he noted that normally it costs him about 80 cents a bushel to get soybeans or corn from his place, to New Orleans. But this year, it's costing him two and a half to three bucks a bushel to go down that river. So I don't need to tell Mr. Pace or any farmers and rancher this morning in the Midwest

about how bad that is, especially on top of high diesel costs, high fertilizer costs, and so on. I should mention here, as Daryl did here just last week, that it's not just getting crops out to market on the Mississippi that's a problem. It's also getting stuff upstream, things like fertilizer. So all in all, my friends, we need to offer up some special prayers to the men and women who are working the land this morning. And I'll tell you, maybe we should do a rain dance, although come to think of it, I don't think you want to see me dance, so maybe you all can dance at home. And with that, my friends, we conclude your morning brief. But I've got one more thing before I let you go. We'll be right back.

Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money. Because behind every headline is a bottom line. Whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto's trillion dollar swings, there's a money side to every story. And when you see the money side, you understand what others miss. Get the money side of the story. Subscribe now at Bloomberg.com.

Welcome back to the PDB folks. I've got one more thing before. Let you go. By now, you know that I am a sucker for a good study, especially medical studies that help Americans with how to live better or give us hope when dealing with difficult medical or emotional conditions. Because if we can find ways to individually get stronger, physically, emotionally, then our families get stronger. Our communities do too. And that means that the country ultimately gets stronger and we can weather more storms. Well, this morning, I've got another study for you and I sure like this one. Researchers at Boston University's School of Public Health

asked themselves this question. If people have a sense of purpose in life, do they live longer? Or does it not matter? Do we just sort of croak when we're supposed to croak? Well, they questioned over 13,000 people over two-year period about whether they were living a purpose-driven life. And then they looked at their physical health and death rates. And what the researchers found was that having a purpose in life really did matter. It meant that you lived longer. To get into the numbers here, people with the highest sense of purpose

had the lowest risk of death, about 20% lower. And that was true no matter who you were, male or female, black, white, rich, poor. So if you need a kick in the pants to find that purpose in your family, a church, volunteering, whatever it might be, well, consider yourself kicked this morning. Not by me, by science.

Just to be clear. And that, ladies and gentlemen, concludes your morning brief. As always, we close out the show, reminding each other of why we are here, talking about our country and our world. It's the creed of every good spy and every smart American. It's from John, Chapter 8, verse 32. And you shall know the truth.

And the truth shall make you free. Good day. How many discounts does USAA auto insurance offer? Too many to say here. Multi-vehicle discount, safe driver discount, new vehicle discount, storage discount, legacy How many discounts will you stack up? Tap the banner or visit usa.com slash auto discounts. Restrictions apply.