The President's Daily Brief - November 1st, 2022. U.S. Trained Afghan Special Forces Join the Fight in Ukraine... Fighting for the Russians

Episode Date: November 1, 2022

It’s November 1st. You’re listening to the President’s Daily Brief. Your morning intel starts now. ------ A lot of information coming out of Ukraine this morning. We’ve got a new suspect in the sabotage of those natural gas pipelines. Also, some bad news on the Wheat Wars. And most importantly — an alarming connection to our war in Afghanistan, with some the Special Forces that we trained there now showing up in Ukraine. That’s coming up. As always, I’m keeping an eye out for developing stories. Put these two on your radar. First, some good news on car prices. They’re coming down. Second, the Supreme Court heard a case yesterday about affirmative action. We’ll talk about how the justices will likely rule. ------ Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of the President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's November 1st. You're listening to the President's Daily Brief. I'm your host and former CIA officer Brian Dean Wright. Your morning intel starts now. First up, a lot of information coming out of Ukraine this morning. We've got a new suspect in the sabotage of those natural gas pipelines. Also, some bad news on the wheat wars. And most importantly, an alarming connection to our war in Afghanistan with some of the special forces that we trained there now showing up in Ukraine. That's coming up. As always, I'm keeping an eye out for developing stories. Put these two on your radar. First, some good news on car prices. They're coming down. Second, the Supreme Court heard a case yesterday about affirmative action. We'll talk about how the justices will likely rule. But first, let's get started with today's main brief. And one alibi, I am battling a nasty cold, so my sincere apologies, if you hear it. We've got a bunch of developments out of Ukraine. this morning with the first being an update on the wheat wars. Now, we haven't talked a lot about that these past months, and that's because back in late

July, Russia and Ukraine agreed to let agricultural products like wheat and corn to be shipped out to market via the Black Sea. And that's been going pretty well. According to the Ukraine's Ministry of Agriculture, export numbers are about where they were as compared to just before the war. Now, that's welcome news for Ukraine's trade partners, mostly of whom are in Africa and the Middle East, and many of whom are quite poor or very reliant on Ukraine's exports to feed their people. So this deal was supposed to last through November 19th, and up until a couple of days ago, it was quite likely that it would have been extended. But now, well, the whole thing is blowing up, and that's because three Russian ships were blown up, or attacked anyway. On Saturday,

the Ukrainian military launched a swarm of drones on three vessels docked in Crimea, fairly badly damaged, actually. In response, the Russians said that they are suspending their cooperation in the wheat deal, although they're not officially withdrawing from it. It's somewhat of a confusing position, which kind of seems to be the point. It sounds like they're warning wheat ships that they might be sunk in retaliation. So here's the Kremlin spokesman addressing the wheat deal yesterday, saying, quote, such a deal is hardly feasible now, and it takes on a different character, much more risky, dangerous, and unguaranteed, end quote.

Well, I bet you can guess what has happened in the past 24 hours all in the commodities markets. First, the price for wheat, corn, and soybeans all jumped. And that's bad news, not just for Ukraine's trade partners, but for you as consumers. It will affect

the price that you pay at the grocery store if prices stay elevated. Second, the insurance company that provides policies for these ships called Lloyds of London, they announced that they're not issuing any new policies, a pause, they're calling it, until they better understand the situation. Meanwhile, for the ships already at sea or being processed, it's kind of a white-knuckle time. They're still sailing through the Black Sea, either out to market or returning for more supplies. Now, whether the Russians sink

any of those ships, that remains to be seen. But for the buyers to include the very poor and very hungry nations like Ethiopia and Egypt and beyond. This is a very unwelcome piece of news. All right, speaking of intrigue and explosions on the high seas, we've got another Ukraine update. This one related to that mysterious sabotage on the North Stream pipelines 1 and 2. So to refresh our memories, those pipelines used to carry Russian natural gas to Europe until the war in Ukraine started, of course. Well, then in late September, somebody blew those pipelines up. Lots of speculation on who did it. Investigations are underway.

Well, this morning we have an update on that sabotage investigation. The Russians are saying that they know who the saboteur is, and that person or that country is the United Kingdom. Now, details are non-existent on this. The Russians didn't elaborate beyond saying that the UK's Royal Navy is responsible. But there is reason to believe that there could be some truth to the Russian allegations. So here's what we know. The British newspaper, The London Daily Mail, broke a story just a couple days ago,

that the phone of British Prime Minister Liz Truss had been hacked by Russian intelligence. In fact, it was hacked many months ago when she was still Foreign Secretary, which is sort of like America's Secretary of State. Regardless, some are speculating that from that trove of intelligence that they collected from his trust, well, they got information confirming that the Royal Navy played a role in that sabotage operation. So I'll be watching for additional details on this because if it is true, then you can bet that it was done in coordination with the United States, which would match the previous low confidence assessment that I gave you on October 20th. I shared why different actors would have blown up those pipelines from the United States to Russia or even Ukraine or Poland. And speaking of coordination between allies, let's switch gears and talk about two countries that we would prefer not be such close friends.

That of course is Russia and China. The foreign ministers of both of those countries recently met, and they released a statement on the nature of their relationship. And let's remember why this is such a big deal that they are such good friends. Beijing has been a major buyer of Russia's oil, gas, and coal, which provides the funds that Moscow needs to fund its war of attrition against Ukraine. Well, if you were hoping for a split between Russia and China after this latest meeting, you will be disappointed.

They are closer than ever. Here's a quote from the statement after the meeting. Quote, China will also firmly support Russia in rallying and leading the Russian people under the leadership of President Putin to achieve strategic development goals against all the odds and disturbance. China is ready to further and deepen exchanges with Russia at all levels, end quote. So that's that. Russia still has its friends, friends with very deep pockets.

And that takes us to our. final update out of Ukraine this morning, and frankly, it's one that I've been wanting to tell you about for a few months, but I've held off until I had high confidence in it. And here it is. Afghanistan's most elite fighters, the ones that our special forces trained for over 20 years, they are back on the battlefield. But this time, they are in Ukraine fighting on behalf of the Russians against Ukraine. We now have public confirmation of these rumors that I've been hearing for a while now. For instance, Ukraine's intelligence ministry confirmed this rumor over the weekend. Multiple press outlets are now covering it too from the Associated Press to the Foreign Policy Magazine.

So here's what's going on. When America retreated from Afghanistan in August of last year, we left behind billions of dollars worth of weaponry, plus a lot of very special men. They were Afghanistan's special forces, an elite group trained by our special forces, to be Kabul's elite defenders and killers. So in the weeks and months after we retreated, the Taliban hunted these men, and I mean hard. Some are still trapped inside Afghanistan, the hiding.

Others fled to nearby countries like Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. And what we're now learning, and I've actually been hearing for months, is that some of them are being recruited by the Russian government to fight in Ukraine. Russia's mercenary organization called the Wagner, group is paying former members of Afghanistan Special Forces $1,500 a month to fight in Ukraine. But more importantly, they're granting visas to these fighters and their families to get out of Afghanistan, or one of the countries that I mentioned, like Iran. And once they agree, these men and their families fly to Russia. They train for a couple of months, and then off to

Ukraine, they go. Now, the total number of fighters involved here is up for some debate. I'm hearing around 400 or so. Now, that might not seem like a lot, but these guys have been trained on specialized Western or American tradecraft, and that's a problem. Here's how Congressman Mike McCall characterized it in a report that he wrote a while back. Quote, given their unique knowledge of U.S. intelligence operations, these Afghan personnel could potentially present a risk to U.S. security should they be coerced or co-opted into working with an adversary, including international. national terrorist groups or state actors like China, Russia, and Iran, end quote. So folks, that is exactly what has happened.

Your taxpayer dollars have trained up a group of elite fighters now in Ukraine that are taking aim at not just Ukrainians, but America's Special Forces too. As I briefed you on previously, our military is operating in Ukraine with boots on the ground, even though the Biden administration hasn't publicly acknowledged it. And that folks ends the brief where we talk about facts and data, and now we pivot to analysis and opinion. And on this one, I'm not going to offer much today other than this. First, when it comes to these Afghan special forces, this is exactly what so many of us warned about. We said to each other and the American people that, okay, yes, let's withdraw from Afghanistan,

but do it methodically, carefully. Otherwise, you are going to have a nightmare on your hands. And that's precisely what's happened. these Afghan special forces were desperate and they took the only deal that they could to survive. And now that fight is spilling over into a new fight in Ukraine. So I don't know what comes next, but I promise you that the longer that this war in Ukraine goes on,

the greater the odds that your children and grandchildren will be dealing with the mess to clean it up. So as always, I share the words of President Zelensky plus NATO's commander, the French president, and so many others who have said this, the war in Ukraine ends at the negotiating table, not on the battlefield. Coming up, ladies and gentlemen,

a closer look at what's on my radar. Two quick brace for you, one on car prices and the other on affirmative action. We'll be right back. Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile, the message for everyone paying big wireless way too much. Please, for the love of everything good in this world, stop. With Mint, you can get premium wireless for just,

$15 a month. Of course, if you enjoy overpaying, no judgments, but that's weird. Okay, one judgment. Anyway, give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. Up front payment of $45 for three-month plan, equivalent to $15 per month required. Intro rate first three months only, then full price plan options available. Taxes and fees extra. See full terms at mintmobile.com. Welcome back to the PDB. As always, I'm watching a few other stories this morning. Put these two on your radar. First, let's talk about some good news. car prices are finally coming down for both new and used cars. According to JD Power and Associates, the average price of a new car dropped by about 500 bucks this past month. Not bad. We're seeing the same trend in the used car market too. According to the Kelly Blue Book, the wholesale cost of used cars,

which is the price that dealers pay for them, well, that's down about 4%. And then that means that you should see savings trickled down on the car lot. So one caveat here, J.D. Power and Associates is saying that despite that 500 bucks off, nearly 50% of new vehicles are still being sold above MSRP, which means that even though you probably can get a better deal on a vehicle today than a few months ago, well, there's still a pretty good chance that you're going to have to pay above asking price to drive it off the lot. So why is that? And what are prices likely to do in the coming months? Well, to the first question, car companies like Ford and GM have said that supply chain issues are finally easing up, which means, well, they can make more cars to meet demand, and that generally means lower prices.

Now to that second question, according to the Wall Street Journal, these same car companies expect that America will be in a recession if we're not already there. So they are realizing that prices are probably going to have to come down at least a touch to compete for limited business. and that means that the prices of vehicles should continue in their downward trajectory. And that, of course, is a very welcome development after a few years of take it or leave at pricing on the car lot. But how fast prices come down, that is up for debate. I'll leave you with this assessment from Mike Manley, who is the CEO of Auto Nation. He told the Wall Street Journal the prices, quote, will not drop as fast as they shot up, end quote.

Well, that is usually how things go. All right, second and finally this morning, the Supreme Court heard a very important case yesterday about one of the most controversial issues in American politics, affirmative action. Specifically, they heard about a case of whether or not Harvard University and the University of North Carolina have been unfairly discriminating against Asian Americans and white applicants. So here's some important context for this case. For over 20 years, colleges and universities have been allowed to use racial quota systems based on a previous Supreme Court case that gave them permission to do so.

But in that case, the Supreme Court said that there was an expiration date of sorts on their ruling, 25 years, give or take, to basically achieve racial progress. And after that, these affirmative action programs would likely be in legal trouble. Well, it's been just shy of the 25-year deadline that they said, but nevertheless, the court is now reconsidering its view. So on one hand, most justices yesterday were so. skeptical of continuing these racial affirmative action programs, Chief Justice John Roberts said, quote,

I don't see how you can say that these programs will ever end, end, unquote. Meanwhile, Justice Alana Kagan said that actually affirmative action programs are, quote, pipelines to leadership in our society, unquote, and that absent some amount of affirmative action, there's a little hope for racial minorities to attain success. So which way will the ultimate vote go? Well, we're going to know for sure in the coming months at some point before July. But regardless, legal experts anticipate that the Supreme Court will probably strike down all affirmative action programs in America and set a new national precedent. That means the colleges will probably have to stick to using grades and test scores and personal essays to choose their student body and just leave race out of it.

And for what it's worth, most Americans actually agree with that. In April, the Pew Research Center put out a poll showing that 74% of Americans do not want race or ethnicity having anything to do with college admissions. Even 62% of Democrats agreed. And with that, one more thing before I let you go. A listener question today will be right back. Starting a business can seem like a daunting task unless you have a partner like Shopify. They have the tools you need to start and grow your business. From designing a website to marketing to selling and beyond, Shopify can help with everything you need.

There's a reason millions of companies like Mattel, Heinz, and all birds continue to trust and use them. With Shopify on your side, turn your big business idea into... Sign up for your $1 per month trial at Shopify.com slash special offer. Welcome back to the PDB, ladies and gentlemen. One more thing before I let you go. A listener question from Nancy in Texas writing in about autism, and why I've spoken so much about medical breakthroughs related to that medical challenge. So here's what she asked.

I am so delighted to see you do briefs on autism research and new breakthroughs that bring hope to families. I cannot tell you how important it is that you do so. But I'm wondering, do you know people or have family members with autism? It is an issue that is quite often ignored in my experience, and your passion and attention to this issue just makes me wonder. So for folks unaware, Nancy is talking about two briefs that I did, one on September 16th and the other on October 27th, both on research into treatments for autism. And she's obviously wondering why. Well, my mom is a special education teacher and some of my closest friends are raising autistic kids. So while I don't have disabilities in my immediate family, I've spent most of my life around children who need some special care.

Plus, I've had some medical challenges of my own. I shared with listeners before that I was in a pretty serious accident and spent a good chunk of my 30s in and out of hospitals. I guess that through all of that, I've developed a bit of a soft spot for folks struggling and thriving through medical or health challenges. And what I'll say about autism is that certainly it can be a disadvantage in life, but I don't count those kids out. They are capable of a lot. And with treatments, they can do some pretty awesome things. Plus, I'm also just an absolute awe of the families who support them. Raising a child with disabilities is tough.

This I know, I've seen it. But the flip side is also true. There is a joy and an unyielding love between these parents and their children. That's why I'm always on the lookout for science-driven data that offers promise and hope. for things like autism. Because sometimes in our darkest hours, it's hope that can go a long ways towards ensuring that we see our next sunrise.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, concludes your morning brief. As always, we close out the show reminding each other of why we are here, talking about our country and our world. It's the creed of every good spy and every smart American. It's from John, chapter 8, verse 32.

and you shall know the truth and the truth shall make you free. Good day.