The President's Daily Brief - November 4th, 2025: Russia’s ‘Systemic’ Economic Collapse & Mexico Erupts Over Narco-Assassination

Episode Date: November 4, 2025

In this episode of The President’s Daily Brief:   Signs of a breaking point inside Russia’s economy. A new intelligence report warns of systemic collapse across the country’s corporate sector—a fact that even Moscow’s official statistics can no longer hide.   Mexico erupts in anger. The murder of an anti-cartel mayor has triggered chaos in the streets and a vow of justice from the country’s president.   A looming disaster in Iran. Tehran’s main water supply is nearly gone, and officials warn the taps could run dry within days.   And in today’s Back of the Brief: Russia rolls out its latest “doomsday weapon”—a new nuclear submarine purpose-built to carry a torpedo capable of triggering radioactive tsunamis.   To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com.   Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.   YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybriefStash Financial: Don't Let your money sit around. Go to https://get.stash.com/PDB to see how you can receive $25 towards your first stock purchase.Birch Gold: Text PDB to 989898 and get your free info kit on gold Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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They're the precious metals specialists. Just text PDB to the number 989-89-898, and you'll receive a free, no-obligation information kit, and you'll learn how to convert an existing IRA or a 401k into a gold IRA. Again, text PDB to 989-898. It's Tuesday, the 4th of November. Ooh, look at that. That means election day in the U.S. Now, admittedly, it's not as interesting as midterm or presidential election years, but there's still some important races on the ballot.

And for what it's worth, this is interesting. Young voters in New York City are, well, likely to hand the keys to the world's financial capital over to a socialist social media influencer. Good luck, New York City. To be fair, Zohran Mamdani is the perfect candidate for those raised on TikTok and the Internet. There may not be any substance or actual experience there. but he can self-promote on social media better than any political candidate we've seen come down the pike. And in today's world, maybe that's all that's required. And never underestimate the allure, of course, of socialism or communism and its promises of free stuff

to folks who have never lived in a socialist or communist society. Okay, welcome to the president's daily brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, a sign of a breaking point inside Russia's economy. A new intelligence report warns of systematic collapse across the country's corporate sector, a fact that even Moscow's official statistics can't hide anymore. Later in the show, Mexico erupts in anger. The murder of an anti-cartel mayor has triggered chaos in the streets and a vow of justice from the country's

president. Plus, a looming disaster in Iran. Tehran's main water supply is nearly gone. and officials warned that the taps could run dry within days. And in today's back of the brief, Putin's added again. Russia rolls out its latest doomsday weapon. How many of them do they have? A new nuclear submarine purpose-built to carry that torpedo that's capable of triggering radioactive tsunamis. Honestly, if you've got a doomsday torpedo,

you've got to have a doomsday submarine. They kind of go hand-in-hand. But first, today's BDB spotlight. We're starting things off today with a story that we've been following closely, the state of Russia's economy, and how new Western sanctions are finally beginning to bite. Last week, we reported that India, Russia's second-largest oil customer, had started cutting back on purchases of Russian crude. Well, now we're learning that Turkey, Russia's third-largest buyer, is doing the same. According to our new Reuters report, Turkey's largest oil refiners, including Tupros and Star Refinery, are scaling back imports of Russian oil. and shifting toward other suppliers.

For Turkey, which depends heavily on Western markets and banking systems, the risk of secondary sanctions has simply become too high. It seems that even countries that have been helping Russia skirt the rules for years now are beginning to get cold feet. And that's significant. As PDB listeners know, oil has been and remains the lifeblood of the Russian economy. It fuels everything from the Kremlin's war spending to its domestic subsidies and social programs.

Every barrel that Turkey doesn't buy means less revenue flowing into Putin's war machine. And now, even Russia's own official data shows clear signs of decline. The Economic Development Ministry in Russia reports that the country's economic growth has slowed for the third consecutive quarter. Between July and September, Russia's GDP grew by only 0.6%. That's down from 1.1% in the second quarter, and far below the 4.5% that Moscow claimed, at the end of 2024.

Now, those are the Kremlin's numbers, and they usually come with a heavy dose of creative accounting. So if the official data looks bad, well, the reality is almost certainly worse. The Ministry's report also shows drops in industrial output, construction, and business activity, all areas that have been propped up by wartime spending. When even the state-funded sectors begin to slow, it suggests that the war economy that's been sustaining growth may have reached its limit. A new report from Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service describes what it calls a systemic economic collapse. Now, admittedly, this assessment does come from a Ukrainian source, so some skepticism is warranted.

But the picture that it paints tracks closely with what we're seeing from other data points, including Russia's own official numbers. According to the report, corporate profits across Russia have fallen by more than 8% so far this year. Roughly 23% of Russian companies are now categorized as problem borrowers. That means they can't make their loan payments or are already in default. In total, that's about 165,000 firms struggling to stay afloat. Many of them are in manufacturing or logistics and construction, the same sectors that Moscow has relied on to keep the war effort moving. Ukraine's intelligence service says this isn't just a downturn.

It's a collapse in the foundations of Russia's corporate sector. Businesses are drowning in debt, supply chains are faltering, and foreign investment is dried up. Even the ruble's temporary rebound, helped by capital controls, is masking serious underlying weakness. For ordinary Russians, the impact is starting to show. Inflation is eating into wages, imported goods are harder to find, and small businesses are closing at their fastest rate since the pandemic. For Putin's government, that all represents a rising political risk. And here's where all these threads connect. sanctions, the shrinking trade, the hollowed-out economy, they all feed into Russia's ability to

sustain its war in Ukraine. The Kremlin has managed to keep the money flowing through massive state spending and by forcing companies to convert foreign earnings into rubles, but that approach was never sustainable. Every ruble printed to fund the war weakens the currency further, and every lost buyer, like India or Turkey, means less hard currency to pay for weapons and spare parts and imports from China. Russia hasn't faced this kind of pressure since the 1998 financial crash, when the ruble collapsed and millions of Russians lost their savings. The difference now is that Moscow has no Western safety net,

no access to international credit, no IMF bailout, no friendly capital markets waiting to step in. So the Kremlin is left to manage the fallout on its own. That means tighter capital controls, more forced conversions, and likely even greater state control over industry. Now, none of these are signs of a healthy or confident economy. And despite the tough talk on Russian state television, the message behind these numbers is clear. The sanctions are starting to do what they were designed to do.

They're starving the war machine. All right. Coming up next, Mexico erupts after the murder of an anti-cartel mayor sparks riots. An eluming disaster in Iran, as officials warned that Tehran's water supply could run dry within days. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. This podcast is brought to you in part by Stash. Now, let me ask you a question.

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insurance. With USAA, you can bundle your auto and home and save up to 10%. Tap the banner to learn more and get a quote at usaa.com slash bundle. Restrictions apply. Welcome back to the BDB. Mexico has been once again hit by the all too familiar specter of political violence. The latest casualty was the mayor of Urupon. That's Carlos Monzo. Monzo dared to challenge the cartels and now has paid for it with his life. Like so many before him, Manzo's death wasn't by chance. It was the kind of hit that's become all too common in Michoakan State and Mexican politics. The 46-year-old mayor was gunned down Saturday night during a day of the dead vigil just outside the city's main square. Witnesses say seven shots rang out before the crowd scattered and Manzo was rushed to a nearby hospital, where shortly after, he was pronounced dead.

State officials later confirmed that two suspects were arrested and three killed in the police response. Now, Monzo knew the danger well. In public, he often wore a bulletproof vest. and traveled with armed guards, a visible reminder of the threats that came with confronting Michoakan's criminal networks. Manzo's battle centered on the Halisco New Generation Cartel and the smaller outfits that have carved up the state's countryside. He's accused local officials of looking the other way and federal leaders of pretending the problem could be solved without force.

That defiance made him a symbol to some and a target to others. Manzo's hardline approach earned him the nickname the Mexican Bucale. a nod to El Salvador's president, who famously declared war and silenced gangs. But unlike Buckele, Manzo fought his battle without federal backing in a country where criminal organizations wield guns and political influence. He'd also become one of Mexican President Claudia Scheinbaum's loudest critics, openly accusing her of being naive about cartel violence. In a speech in May, he said, quote, if she thinks she's going to detain these criminals without a

single shot fired and that they'll just turn themselves in, well, she should get it done, end quote. By September, his frustration turned to forewarning. Manzo told reporters, We need greater determination from the president of Mexico. I do not want to be another mayor on the list of those who have been executed. I am very afraid, but I must face it with courage, end quote. Well, that fear proved justified. Even with federal protection of 14 national guardsmen and a security detail that he handpicked himself, Manzo was killed in what investigators now describe as a targeted hit. As we've covered here on the PDB, his death joins a growing list of political assassinations, more than 30 candidates killed ahead of last year's elections, and attacks on local leaders

while becoming more brazen. Mexico's security minister condemned the murder as a, quote, cowardly attack. But in Michoakan, phrases like that have lost their force. Cartels still outgun the police and political power and criminal control often feel indistinguishable. President Scheinbaum called an emergency meeting of her national security cabinet on Sunday, describing the killing as a, quote, vile assassination and pledging zero impunity and full justice. But by nightfall, public anger spilled into the streets. Protesters stormed the government palace in the Mitya Khan capital, hurling Molotov cocktails, smashing windows, and demanding the resignation of the governor,

accusing him of turning a blind eye to cartel violence. Police fired Teargas to push protesters back, and the governor offered few answers beyond piggybacking off other condemnations of the attack, saying it was, quote, cowardly. Okay, shifting to Iran. It's hard to imagine a city of 10 million people running out of water, but Tehran is almost there.

The capital's main dam is nearly dry, and after years of low rainfall, denial, and mismanagement, even state media now reports a crisis for the Islamic regime is just a fortnight away. If the Mullah's water crisis rings a bell, well, it should. We've tracked Iran's depleting water supply for months on the PDB in a situation that's now gone from alarming to potentially catastrophic. The Amir Kabir Dam, once a symbol of the Shah-era ambition to modernize Iran, is now a little more than a puddle behind concrete walls. Regime officials say it holds just 14 million cubic meters of water, barely 8% of its capacity, in a city that burns through

roughly 3 million cubic meters daily, now under, of course, heavy rationing. Just one year ago, that same reservoir was burning with 86 million cubic meters of water. The drop is so steep that it stunned even the engineers who watched it shrink month after month. Rainfall this year has been nearly non-existent across Tehran, fueling the crisis, of course. And for once, even state media couldn't spin the situation. Tehran's water chief told IRNA, quote, at this level, it can only continue to supply Tehran for two weeks. The impact is already visible. Some neighborhoods in the capital see their taps cut off for hours at a time, while authorities declare public holidays to conserve water and energy amid heat waves that have topped 120 degrees Fahrenheit. Even Iran's president,

Massoud Peschian, stopped pretending that this crisis could be fixed overnight, calling it at times the most serious drought that the capital has endured in decades. And it's not just Tehran. Across the regime's southern and northwestern provinces, the story is the same. Rivers drying, wells collapsing, and villages emptying out. In the northwest, Lake Ermia, once the largest saltwater lake in the Middle East, has been reduced to a white basin of salt and dust. From space, the European Space Agency Sentinel 2 satellites shows what's left,

a faint blue sliver surrounded by miles of cracked earth. earth. Iranian lawmakers warned the lakebed is, quote, turning into a salt mine and that toxic dust storms could travel hundreds of miles, potentially devastating agriculture and choking cities. Farmers have reportedly begun abandoning their fields. The Guardian reports that the regime's own policies, diverting some 300 million cubic meters of water from the rivers to feed massive agricultural projects, sealed the lake's fate. Meanwhile, the mullahs turned outward, looking for someone to blame, of course. Iran's deputy foreign minister accused neighboring Afghanistan of violating the Helmand River Treaty, that's a 1973 water sharing agreement, meant to guarantee Iran water flow

from Afghanistan and feed the regime's southeast regions. Turkran claims new Afghan dam projects strangled that flow, cutting off lifelines to its eastern provinces. Taliban officials have yet to respond to those claims. And so what was once a technical issue has now become a political reckoning. Years spent chasing nuclear ambitions and defying the West has left Iran under crippling sanctions and without the outside expertise or investment that could have saved its failing water system. Even the regime's top leadership is running out of ideas. President Poschke and last month floated a plan to move the capital, relocating Tehran's seat of power to the south near the Persian Gulf. He pitched it as a chance for, quote, development and trade, but few doubt the real reason. The

capital's water is nearly tapped out. It's not a new idea, though. Former President Hassan Rouhani once drafted plans to do the same, but not with this much urgency. Okay, up next in today's back of the brief. Vladimir Putin reveals his latest doomsday weapon, a nuclear submarine built to carry a coastal city-destroying tsunami-making torpedo. Putin's gone all doomsday weapon crazy. He's channeling Dr. Evil. All he needs is a hairless cat and some sharks with laser beams on their heads. I'll have the details when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take just a moment to talk about protecting your hard-earned assets. Now, did you know that gold is up around 40% this year? It's true. It's not speculation,

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Look, the best indicator of the future is the past, and gold has historically been a safe haven for generations during times of instability or economic uncertainty. Text PDB to 989-89-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8. That's PDB to 9-89-8-8-P. Protect your future today with Birch Gold. Fox News is now streaming live on Fox One. When it matters most,

turn to the voices you trust. We go beyond the headlines, bringing you the stories you won't hear anywhere else. Live coverage, sharp analysis, real perspective. At home or on the go. Stay connected when it counts. Stream Fox News on Fox One. Download today. In today's back of the brief, another entry in what's becoming Vladimir Putin's parade of doomsday weapons.

Last week, we told you about the Poseidon nuclear torpedo. an underwater drone, the size of a city bus, that Russia claims can travel thousands of miles, slip past coastal defenses, and detonate near shorelines to create a radioactive tidal wave. Oh, well, if you have a doomsday torpedo, though, that can destroy coastal cities, then by God you need a doomsday submarine to carry it, don't you? Of course you do. And this week, Putin unveiled that submarine. It's called the Kabarovsk, part of what's known as Project 09-851. That's not a particularly catchy name.

It's a nuclear-powered sub, purpose-built, to carry up to six Poseidon torpedoes. The Kremlin rolled it out with great fanfare, of course they did, calling it a new chapter in Russia's strategic deterrent. According to Moscow's defense ministry, the Kabarovs can deploy those torpedoes from anywhere in the world's oceans, giving Russia what it calls, quote, global retaliatory capability. Western analysts say that's a fancy way of describing a... a slow-moving underwater nuke that nobody really knows how to defend against. But here's the reality check. As I said last week, it's hard to know how operational any of this actually is.

Russia's nuclear navy has a long history of ambitious projects that either broke down or never left testing. Still, the intent here is unmistakable. Putin wants the world talking about his arsenal again. It's distraction from his failing war in Ukraine and his failing economy. This is psychological warfare as much as it is military modernization. It's meant to remind the West that despite sanctions and battlefield setbacks and economic decay, Russia can still build fearsome tools of destruction.

And as we've seen before, fear is one export that Moscow can always deliver on. So add the Kabarovsk to the list, the nuclear torpedoes, the flying Chernobyl missiles, and now the submarine designed to carry Armageddon. Each new weapon that Putin unveils is less about. about deterrence and more about desperation. Now you have to ask yourself, can a space-based laser weapon, nickname the Alan Parson Project, be far behind?

And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Tuesday, the 4th of November. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb at thefirsttv.com. And if you've got an election in your area in the U.S., and you do have something to vote for, we'll get out and vote. It's a duty, it's a right, it's a privilege.

Remember to take a moment also and subscribe to our YouTube channel. It's the cat's pajamas, as the kids say. Just go to YouTube and search at President's Daily Brief. No fuss, no must. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool.

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