The President's Daily Brief - November 5th, 2024: U.S. Election Showdown, Russian Sabotage Tactics, & Israel’s Syrian Raid

Episode Date: November 5, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: It’s election day in the U.S., and we’re breaking down what could be the most consequential vote in the world. We’ll explore where Kamala Harris and Donald Trump stand in the polls and dive into their closing arguments as they attempt to sway voters in these final hours. Later, Western security officials suspect Russia of a dangerous new tactic: attempting to send incendiary devices via DHL to ignite fires on cargo or passenger planes headed to the U.S. and Canada. This is seen as part of an intensified Russian sabotage campaign targeting Western nations. Plus, the Israeli military has announced a ground raid into Syria, capturing a Syrian citizen linked to Iranian networks. This marks the first confirmed operation by Israel in Syrian territory during the current war. And in today’s Back of the Brief: Russia has slapped Google with an astronomical fine of over 2 undecillion rubles—a 2 followed by 36 zeroes—for refusing to pay escalating penalties over blocking pro-Russian YouTube channels. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com.  Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Patriot Gold: Call 1-888-870-5457 for a free investor guide. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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This episode is brought to you by Patriot Gold Group. retirement assets and safeguard your future. Give the experts over at Patriot Gold a call today. Now, they've been the top-rated gold IRA dealer for seven years in a row. Go to Patriot Gold Group.com or call 1-888-621-3856 for a free investor guide. It's Tuesday, 5 November. Hmm, that sounds familiar. Oh, yes. It's Election Day in the U.S. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. It's, as I mentioned, election day, perhaps you've heard of it, here in the United States, and we're tackling what could be the most consequential vote on the planet, at least, well, at least for today. We'll look at

where Kamala Harris and Donald Trump stand in the polls and the closing arguments that each candidate is making to sway voters in these final hours. Later in the show, Western security officials, suspect Russia of a dangerous new tactic. Get this. Attempting to send incendiary devices by a D.HL, it's a transportation company, of course, to ignite fires on cargo or passenger planes bound for the U.S. and Canada, part of what's believed to be an intensified Russian sabotage campaign targeting Western nations. Now, if that's proven to be true, then Putin and his band of thugs, and I don't think I'm going out on a limb here,

they will need to pay a steep price. Plus, the Israeli military announced a ground raid into Syria, capturing a Syrian citizen linked to Iranian networks, marking the first confirmed operation in Syrian territory during the current conflict. And in today's back of the brief, Russia has slapped Google with an astronomical fine of, well, here it comes, over two undisillion rubles. I know, you don't often hear that amount, undisillion.

Now, that's a two followed by 36 zeros for refusing to pay mounting penalties over blocking pro-Russian YouTube channels. Now, I'm not sure exactly how much too undecillion is in U.S. dollars, but it's definitely a lot of fat stacks. But first, today's PDB spotlight. As Americans head to the polls to make their voices heard in what has been one of the most contentious national elections in recent history, I want to begin with a brief preview of where Donald Trump and Kamala Harris stand in the race and why many experts say tonight's outcome is a pure toss-up. It's been quite the election cycle. Okay, that's putting it mildly. Complete with assassination attempts and last-minute candidate changes.

Now, despite the chaotic campaigns, as we head into election night, and pollsters say there's little clarity in the data pointing to who has the edge when it comes to garnering the 270 electoral college votes needed to declare victory. According to the New York Times, it's been decades since the polls have been this tight across multiple key states in both the sunbelt and the rust belt, suggesting, anyway, that we're heading for a photo finish after polls closed later this evening.

So why the uncertainty? Well, it's a good question. Now, the final round of polls have been contradictory at best. The latest New York Times and CNN College poll released Sunday gives Harris the edge, showing her leading in four out of the seven swing states, namely Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. They have Harris tied with Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania, with Trump only leading in Arizona. But the final poll from the respected morning consult gives the to Trump, showing him slightly ahead in Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, while tied with Harris in Arizona and Pennsylvania. There was also a final poll over the weekend from the Des Moines Register that showed Trump

trailing Harris by three percentage points in Iowa, a state that was not thought to be in play for Harris this cycle. We should note, however, that this poll is considered a significant outlier. And then there are the models, which are based on the latest sampling of publicly available polling data. According to Axios, election guru Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin gives Trump a 50.4% chance of winning the Electoral College, with Harris's chances sitting at roughly 49.2%. 538's model is largely the same, but puts Trump's chances of victory at roughly 53%.

I also want to flag the Economist's final election model, which is split down the line at 50-50 for both candidates. Now, all three models seem to favor Trump in the critical swing states of Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia, with Harris being favored in Michigan and Wisconsin. The big unknowns, again, according to these models, are Pennsylvania and Nevada, with many saying the outcome in Pennsylvania could determine the entire election. To complicate matters, okay, as if it wasn't already confusing enough, pollsters are warning that there is a chance that a systematic polling error, such as over-sampling one side, could upend these predictions and lead to a potential landslide

victory for one of the candidates. An analyst with Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin said, quote, if the polls are totally accurate, well, we're in for a nail-biter on Tuesday night, but a systematic polling error is always possible, and even an average polling error would upend the state of the race, and quote, who pays for these polls anyway? Why do it? They added, quote, Harris could beat her polls or we could be in for, third Trump miss. Both scenarios have one thing in common. They turn election into a relative blowout, end quote. Bottom line is, nobody knows. The pollsters don't know, but God bless them, they keep trying and they keep sending out their invoices.

This election has also seen significant turnout for early voting across the nation, with more than 77 million mail-in and early in-person votes cast nationally. Registered Democrats make up roughly 41% of the early vote, while 39% are registered Republicans. Another 20% are those without an allegiance to the major political parties. Now, while we know the political affiliation of early voters, there's no way to know, of course, who they may have cast their vote for. As for the candidates, both Trump and Harris, are projecting optimism, of course they are, about their chances heading into election night, as opposed to being cynical. Nah, I don't think I've got a chance.

Harris spent her final day of campaigning on Monday in Pennsylvania, alongside celebrities, like Oprah Winfrey and, oh, Lady Gaga. And, of course, for all my political insight and opinions, I turned to Lady Gaga and other celebrities. Harris has continued to try to frame herself as a centrist that will govern on behalf of all Americans, while framing Trump as an authoritarian who poses an existential threat to American democracy.

Yes, it's all become very civil. Trump, meanwhile, held four rallies on Monday across North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, where he hammered on his core campaign issues of immigration and the economy. He encouraged all his supporters to come out and vote in overwhelming numbers, saying the election was, quote, ours to lose. All right, enough of that. Coming up next, Western security officials suspect Russia

of sending incendiary devices via D.HL to target planes bound for the U.S. and Canada. And Israel confirms its first ground raid into Syria, capturing a Syrian citizen tied to Iranian terror networks. I'll have those stories when we come back. Not loving your AT&T or T Mobile Bill? Yeah, we've been hearing that a lot. Good news. Bring your AT&T or T Mobile Bill to Verizon and we'll give you a better deal.

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eyes. And the winner by knockout is Padiday. Paddy. Bring it on. Welcome back to the PDB. Turning our attention back to global affairs, Western security officials are warning that Russia is plotting to plant explosives aboard either cargo or passenger airplanes bound for the U.S. and Canada. Now, that disturbing revelation first reported by the Wall Street Journal, would mark an obvious escalation of the Kremlin's covert sabotage campaign, which has been targeting the U.S. and our allies ever since the start of Putin's war on Ukraine in early 2022. For some background, back in July, two incendiary devices were shipped from Lithuania, using the German logistics company, D.HL, and then later exploded at DHS logistics hubs in

Leipzig, Germany and Birmingham, England, kicking off a massive multi-country investigation. into the cause. Sources told the Wall Street Journal on Monday that the devices were recently determined to be electric massagers implanted with a magnesium-based flammable substance. The investigation led to the arrest of four suspects in Poland in October, and they're accused of being Russian agents and are charged with sabotage or terrorist operations on behalf of a foreign intelligence agency. Polish authorities have not revealed the identities of the individuals or what sabotage group

they're linked with. Notably, however, investigators have reportedly determined that the incidents were not isolated, but rather part of a larger Russian plot. The incidents in July appear to have been test runs designed to figure out how to get such incendiary devices aboard planes bound for North America. The head of Poland's foreign intelligence agency and other Western intelligence officials implied to the journal that Russia's military intelligence agency, known as the GRU, was directly responsible for the plot. Poland's intel had said Russia was playing an incredibly dangerous game, well, that's putting it mildly again, stating, quote, I'm not sure the political leaders of Russia are aware of the

consequences if one of these packages exploded, causing a mass casualty event, end quote. Yeah, well, actually, I think they're aware. They just don't care. Apparently, disaster was only narrowly avoided as the devices came close to ending up on D.HL flights bound for North America. Officials said a fire caused by one of these devices would be near impossible to extinguish with on-board firefighting systems and could easily bring down a plane if it was unable to make a quick emergency landing. A spokesman for the Kremlin, however, oh, this will be a surprise, brushed off the allegations as, quote, traditional

obsubstantiated insinuations from the media." Now, despite the disturbing findings, a U.S. government official reassured CNN that, quote, at this time, there's no current active threat targeting U.S.-bound flights, end quote, the ever-optimistic U.S. government official. Really? Given that the reports are that Russian saboteurs are attempting to put incendiary devices on flights inbound for the U.S. and Canada, I'm not sure that I'd buy the reassurance from the U.S. government official. It seems, I don't know, contradictory. The investigation remains ongoing, as officials work to determine the extent of the plot and whether it's connected to other sabotage

efforts across Europe and North America. As we've been extensively covering here on the PDB, Russia has been waging a campaign of sabotage against allies of Ukraine across Western Europe and North America with attacks escalating across 2024. Russia's shadow campaign involves arson, attacks, espionage, cyber attacks, targeted assassinations, and political strong-arming. A September op-ed, published in the Financial Times, by the heads of the CIA and MI6, warned at the time that Russia is only planning to intensify those efforts as the war in Ukraine drags on. All right, I want to turn now to Syria, where Israel launched its first ever ground raid into Syrian territory during its current conflict with Hezbollah, detaining a Syrian citizen allegedly tied.

to Iranian networks. For the past year, Israel has repeatedly conducted hundreds of air strikes in Syria, primarily targeting members of the Iran-backed proxy, Khazbullah, and Iranian officials who are, of course, close allies of the Syrian regime. While Israel's air operations in Syria have been well-documented, Sunday marked the first public acknowledgement of ground maneuvers within Syria's borders. The Israeli Defense Forces, the IDF, confirmed in a statement on Sunday, that a special ground operations, quote, took place in recent months inside Syria, though

no specific date was provided. The targeted Syrian citizen identified as Ali Soleiman Al-Asi. I've reportedly resided in Asida, that's a southern Syrian region near the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. According to the IDF, Al-Asi had been under months-long Israeli surveillance for allegedly gathering intelligence on IDF troops near Israeli-controlled territory. His arrest, the IDF stated, quote, prevented a future attack and exposed the operational methods of Iranian terror networks located near the Golan Heights, end quote.

While Syrian officials have not formally acknowledged the incident, a local pro-government outlet, Sham FM, reported on Sunday that an Israeli operation over the summer resulted in what it labeled a, quote, kidnapping in southern Syria. Body camera footage released by the IDF shows soldiers detaining a man in a white tank top inside a building, how Aasi was reportedly taken to Israel for interrogation, marking a significant shift in Israel's operations within Syria. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visited the Lebanese border on Sunday, reaffirming his commitment to halting Hezbollah's, quote, oxygen lifeline, which is Iranian weapons smuggled through Syria. Netanyahu emphasized that Israel's six-week

bombing campaign in Lebanon aims to cripple Hezbollah's ability to operate. near Israel's northern border, with the goal of ending more than a year of hostile fire directed at northern Israel. As we've been tracking here on the PDB, Sunday's statement from the idea follows a ground raid in northern Lebanon on Saturday by Israel's elite naval commando unit, which targeted Imad Amaz, reportedly responsible for Hezbollah's naval operations. This marks the first known ground mission in northern Lebanon, as Israel intensifies its efforts to dismantle Hezbollah's operational network in the region. All right.

Up next, in the back of the brief, Russia hits Google with a mind-boggling fine of over two undecillion rubles. That's a two with 36 zeros, and we're still working to figure out how many U.S. dollars that could be, over unpaid penalties for blocking pro-Russian YouTube channels. I'll have the details after the break.

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And again, that's a two followed by 36 zeros. Who's got all the time to write that down? For refusing to unblock certain pro-Russian YouTube channels. Now, for all of you attempting to convert that sum into dollars, two undecillion rubles would be about 20 decillion or roughly 20 billion trillion trillion dollars. Hmm. Still doesn't really clarify it, does it? You may be wondering if a sum that huge even exists.

And the answer is, uh, no, it does not. For perspective, the entire world's GDP is around $110 trillion, that's according to the International Monetary Fund. Meanwhile, Google's parent company, Alphabet, is worth a modest $2 trillion by comparison. So Russian state media outlet Tass reveals a Russian court demanded Google restore the blocked progression pushing channels, which have been offline since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Since Google didn't comply, well, the fines are snowballing, doubling every week, until now you've got two undecillion rubles. The Kremlin isn't amused, but they are amusing, with spokesman

Dmitri Pescoe, admitting he, quote, can't even pronounce the astronomical number. Well, if you can't pronounce it, can you really find somebody with it? But adding that it's, quote, symbolic, like, oh, it's symbolic, of Russia's stance that Google shouldn't be bossing around their broadcasters. While Google's not exactly sweating the latest fines, the tech giant, in its quarterly earnings report, published last week, mentioned, quote, ongoing legal matters in Russia, saying that the fines are piling up over disputes involving, quote, sanctioned parties. Still, Google claims that these legal hits won't materialize, and so therefore won't put a dent in its bottom line.

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Google has dialed back its presence in the country. That's unlike other tech giants who bailed completely. Services like YouTube and search still work there in Russia, and Google's Russian branch filed for bankruptcy after the government froze its bank accounts. Hmm, two undecillion rubles. I'll get back to you and let you know exactly how many dollars that could be. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Tuesday, 5 November. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com.

And of course, in the event that you're hankering for an ad-free PDB experience, well, we've got you covered. Simply become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com. See, I told you it was simple. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool.

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