The President's Daily Brief - October 10th, 2024: Did Iran Test a Nuclear Weapon?, Hezbollah’s Underground Network, & France Sends Jets to Ukraine

Episode Date: October 10, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: An earthquake in Northern Iran has sparked speculation of an underground nuclear test by the Islamic Republic, but CIA Director William Burns is dismissing those claims. Later in the program, we’ll turn to northern Lebanon, where the discovery of a tunnel into Israel is raising questions about the extent of Hezbollah’s underground network. Plus, Ukraine’s air defenses are getting a major boost as France commits to delivering one of its most advanced fighter jets to the battlefield early next year. And in today’s Back of the Brief, we have an update on Haiti, where human rights groups report that gangs are increasingly recruiting child soldiers. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] 🏅 Patriot Gold: Call 1-888-870-5457 for a free investor guide. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode is brought to you by Patriot Gold Group. Protect your retirement assets and safeguard your future from an up and down turbulent economy. Speak with the experts at Patriot Gold. Now, they've been the top-rated gold IRA dealer for seven years in a row. That's seven years in a row. Go to Patriot Gold Group.com or call 1-888-621-3856 for a free investor guide. It's Thursday, 10 October. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief.

I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get breathed. An earthquake in northern Iran has triggered speculation of an underground nuclear test by the Islamic Republic. However, CIA Director William Burns, well, he seems to be shutting down those claims. We've got all the details coming up in today's spotlight. Later in the program, we'll turn to southern Lebanon, where the discovery of a tunnel into Israel is raising questions about the extent of Chesbalah's underground network.

Plus, a major boost for Ukraine's air defenses as France announces its commitment to delivering one of its most advanced fighter jets to the battlefield early next year. And in today's back of the brief, we'll have an update on the situation in Haiti where human rights groups are now saying that criminal gangs are increasingly recruiting child's soldiers. But first, today's BDB spot. spotlight. I want to begin with some, well, let's call it disturbing speculation regarding Iran's nuclear program that's sweeping the Middle East right now following a recent 4.6 magnitude

earthquake that rattled Iran. The earthquake began late Saturday in Iran's northern Semenan province, and tremors could be felt as far away as eastern Tehran. While such tremors are not altogether, surprising, in an earthquake-prone country like Iran, rumors quickly spread across social media that it was triggered by Iran conducting their first nuclear test. Given Iran's missile attack on Israel last Tuesday and their threats of escalation, should Israel respond, many were left to wonder in their speculation if the regime has not pivoted to flooring the gas on their atomic ambitions.

Some users noted parallels to past nuclear attack. tests in North Korea, which have triggered earthquakes. The speculation also appears to have been prompted by the shallow depth of the quake, which occurred just reportedly 10 kilometers below ground. That's a similar depth that one might use for a nuclear test in order to minimize radiation exposure. Furthermore, in 2019, researchers with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, think tank issued a report that Iran was building secret underground nuclear nuclear testing sites and that one of those locations appeared to be in an area southeast of Semnon. All that being said, regional analysts urged caution, noting that the epicenter of the quake

was more than 100 kilometers from where this testing site is thought to be located. Others noted that Iran has highly fortified nuclear facilities, such as the well-known Natanz complex, and that if testing were to occur, it would be at one of those facilities. For what it's worth, Iranian state media dismissed the speculation, so did they? As rumors saying testing would contradict their nuclear and defense doctrine, which claims any nuclear development is being done for civilian, not military purpose as well. If the Iranian state media says they're not developing nuclear weapons, I mean, they certainly seem credible and reliable.

Or not. In reality, Iran's long history of double-speak and obfuscation and lying doesn't lend those assertions much credibility, leaving many, of course, to wonder if the regime has an undeclared underground nuclear facility in the Semenan province. However, interestingly timed comments by CIA Director William Burns on Monday appear to pour cold water on any idea that Iran is currently racing towards a bomb, much less already testing one. Burns said that Western intelligence agencies closely monitor Iran's nuclear activity, and that currently, There's no evidence, he said, that the regime has reversed their 2003 decision to not pursue

weaponization. That's according to a report from NBC News. Now, of course, the longtime diplomat and current agency director Burns, he obviously knows that the lack of evidence doesn't mean that the regime isn't engaged in pursuit of the bomb. It may simply mean that we have an intelligence gap. He did note, however, that their stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium has significant significantly increased in recent years, reducing their nuclear breakout period down to just one or two weeks. While using that material to build a bomb, along, of course, with the needed delivery system would take longer, their progress is obviously unsettling. In his remarks, Burns bemoaned, and what was the last time you heard the word bemoaned, but he bemoaned the United States withdrawal in 2018 from the

2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers that was known as the J.C. CPOA, claiming Iran's progress would have been significantly curtailed if the agreement remained in place. Now, while we regularly hear that same assertion from the Biden administration and former officials in the Obama White House, let's take a look and investigate that claim just for a moment. While it's true that Iran agreed to strict limits on their nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, the reality inside Iran was not really encouraging. Iran reportedly kept key covert nuclear sites off the list provided to UN weapons for monitoring, while barring them entirely from inspecting military facilities that could, obviously, be used as part of a covert nuclear program. So trust but

verify is a fine idea, but only if you can actually verify. Iran also insisted on a provision that required the UN to notify Iran if they suspected a violation and forced inspectors to undergo a long bureaucratic process in order to gain entry to any sites that they deemed suspicious. Critics of the JCPOA have long pointed out these flaws, arguing the overall deal and monitoring protocols, relied too heavily on assumptions, bizarre assumptions, that Iran would act as an honest broker.

Regardless, Iran currently has large, stores of 60% enriched uranium, putting them close to the 90% threshold that is considered weapons grade. Over the first half of 2024, they increased their supply of 60% enriched uranium by at least 20 kilograms, bringing their total supply to more than 142 kilograms, and they would only need roughly 42 kilograms of weapons-grade uranium to build one bomb. All right, coming up next. The discovery of a tunnel in Southern Leopardyne, Reasons raises questions about Hezbollah's underground network, and France pledges to deliver its advanced Mirage 2000 fighter jet to boost Ukraine's air defenses next year.

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Welcome back to the BDB. I want to shift focus back to Israel's ongoing raids against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, where IDF forces just destroyed a Hezbollah tunnel that crossed into Israeli territory. Now, the destruction of that tunnel came after the Israeli military insisted that no cross-border tunnels existed prior to their start of their ground campaign on September 30th. Local Israelis living along the border expressed confusion and outrage at the discovery, demanding an investigation into why the previously unreported tunnel was missed by Israel's intelligence agencies, that's according to a report from the Jerusalem Post. Ever since Hamas's 7 October attacks last year, border communities have won.

worried that Hezbollah operatives could use cross-border tunnels to mount a similar assault. Officials of the IDF, well, they clarified on Tuesday that their forces have long known about the tunnel. They've been aware of it, but they kept it under wraps so as not to tip off Hezbollah. They stressed that while the 20-meter-long tunnel crossed the U.N. recognized blue line, separating Lebanon and Israel by about 10 meters, it had no exit built on the Israeli side of the border and never posed a direct threat to Israeli communities. According to a report from the Times of Israel, the IDF said Hezbollah began building the tunnel roughly two years ago and that construction was quickly identified by the IDF.

They opted to monitor Hezbollah's activity, establishing comprehensive surveillance of the area. IDF commandos subsequently confirmed its existence during targeted raids in southern Lebanon several months ago. At the time, they discovered various weapons inside, including explosives and anti-tank missiles. With their ground operations now expanding inside Lebanon, the IDF said that they took the opportunity now to finally demolish the tunnel. Officials with the IDF said Tuesday that no other tunnels crossing from Lebanon into Israel exist. Now, while that's good news, of course, for Israeli civilians living in the north, the IDF still has to contend with Chesbullah's tunnel network inside LeBelette.

Lebanon as ground operations continue. As we've previously discussed here on the PDB, Hezbollah is thought to have expansive secret tunnel networks where they house much of their arsenal. The underground networks are described by Hezbollah's backers in Iran as, quote, missile cities, many of which are thought to be located under mountains in southern Lebanon. Back in late August, Hezbollah released a video documenting some of their tunnels in a video titled Our Mountains, are our storehouses, not easy to say, which show tunnels big enough to house a whole convoy full of trucks. In the footage, trucks can be seen transporting missiles and launchers through one of the tunnels, of which there are thought to be dozens. Regional analysts note that little details are known

about these top-secret facilities, and as you might suspect, their location inside Lebanon's mountains and hilltops makes them difficult to penetrate. Still, they do note that the IDF obviously has significant experience dealing with Hamas tunnels inside Gaza, which readily translates into operations in Lebanon. Since launching their ground operation last Tuesday, the IDF says they've destroyed several tunnels, located hundreds of weapons stores in Lebanese border villages, and killed some 450 Khazbalah operatives. Okay, moving on to the war in Ukraine. France is set to deliver Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets to Ukraine by the year 2025. Well, that's right around the corner.

Adding more firepower, of course, to Ukraine's ongoing efforts to combat Russian forces. On Tuesday, the French Armed Forces Minister revealed in a post on X that these advanced jets could be deployed to Ukraine in the first quarter of next year. This announcement comes out on the heels of the Netherlands confirmation of its first delivery of ever. have 16 jets to Ukraine on Sunday, part of a broader Western push to strengthen Ukraine's Air Force. French President Emmanuel Macron committed to sending an unspecified number of the Mirage fighter jets to Ukraine back in June. For background, these jets developed by French aerospace giant de Soe in the late 1970s and introduced in 1984, our powerful multi-role aircraft on par, basically, with the U.S.-made F-16s.

In late September, the French Armed Forces announced that the first cohort of Ukrainian pilots completed Alpha Jet training in France in preparation for the arrival of the Mirage fleet. The Mirages will come equipped with a unique advantage. They're being specifically modified to meet Ukraine's combat needs, particularly for air-to-ground operations and enhanced electronic warfare, making them a formidable, addition to Ukraine's defense strategy. It's important to note, Ukraine's push for Western fighter jets has been long and difficult. After months of delays and uncertainty, the U.S. as an example, finally green-lit the transfer of F-16s back in August of 2023. That was confirmed by Ukrainian

President Zelensky. Additionally, nations like Denmark, Norway, and Belgium pledged roughly 80 jets. Despite these promises, delivery schedules have been plagued by logistical challenges, resulting in delayed timelines. However, momentum does appear to be building. The Dutch defense minister confirmed that the first batch of the Netherlands' previously promised total of 24 F-16s are now in Ukraine. The timing is critical, as Ukraine's Air Force has been battered by Russia's superior capabilities. While these jets boosts Ukraine's defenses, their impact is somewhat limited. by the small operational numbers. In late August, Ukraine lost at least one F-16 in a pilot, while, quote, repelling a massive Russian combined air and missile attack, according to Ukraine's

Air Force. Looking ahead, Ukraine is not stopping at mirages in F-16s. Keev is actively negotiating to acquire Saab JAS 39 Gripen jets from Sweden and Eurofighter typhoons, aiming to diversify and modernize its Air Force even further. All right. Coming up in the back of the brief. A disturbing update from Haiti where human rights organizations report that the situation is worsening

with gangs now recruiting child soldiers. Okay. To be fair, it probably shouldn't be shocking that criminal gangs are doing awful criminal things such as abusing children. I'll be right back. This is Euphoria Calvin Klein.

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country. Since February, Haiti has been gripped by increasing violence, primarily in its capital, Port-au-Prince. The gangs control roughly 80 percent of the capital, including territories that are home to some 2.7 million people, launching widespread attacks on state institutions and causing unrest that has spread nationwide. The gangs have grown stronger, exploiting a power vacuum left by a paralyzed government, displacing over 700,000 people nationwide, that's according to the UN. With state institutions in disarray, children have become particularly vulnerable drawn into the ranks of these criminal gangs by hunger and poverty. H.R.W.'s latest report paints a devastating picture. Hundreds, possibly thousands of children, have been coerced

into gangs, some as young as eight years old. Boys are often trained to use weapons. and then sent into clashes with police, while girls are subjected to sexual abuse and forced into domestic servitude. A humanitarian worker described how one gang leader in Cite Soleil demands a virgin girl monthly, a gruesome practice that has spread to other gangs across the island. Good God. The HRW report reveals gangs have also embraced modern recruitment tactics using social media to attract new members. Nearly a third of Haiti's gang members are children, nearly a third. That's according to UN estimates.

As we've reported here on the PDB previously, despite the UN's approval of a multinational police mission led by Kenya to assist Haiti's nearly defeated police force back in June, progress has been slow. The mission has been only partially deployed, leaving gangs largely unchecked. Okay, hands up. If you're surprised that the UN in practice may not be as effective as they imagine themselves to be over at UN headquarters.

HRW is calling for the international community and Haiti's government, I'm sorry, is there one, to act decisively, urging more resources for security forces and access to education, food, and rehabilitation programs to break the cycle of violence and prevent more children from falling prey to gangs. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Thursday, 10 October. Now, for all the listeners and viewers of the PDB in Central Florida, please be safe, and we're thinking of everyone there in the region as you ride the storm out and get through the aftermath. If you have any questions or comments for me, please reach out at pdb at thefirsttv.com. And, of course, to listen to the show ad-free, well, become a premium member of the President's

daily brief by simply visiting pdb premium.com. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool.