The President's Daily Brief - October 14th, 2022. The Biden Admin Asks Saudi Arabia to Postpone Oil Cuts Until After U.S. Elections. Saudi Arabia Responds... Publicly.

Episode Date: October 14, 2022

It’s October 14th. You’re listening to the President’s Daily Brief. Your morning intel starts now. ------ You might have heard the big news that the Biden Administration is in a big fight with Saudi Arabia. But what you might not have heard is how important this fight could become as the CIA now says the probability of a nuclear war in Ukraine has gone up from 1% to 25%. We’ll discuss the latest. As always, I’m keeping an eye out for developing stories. Put this one on your radar. America is running dangerously low on weapons — for both training purposes and war-time usage — largely because we’re sending so much of it to Ukraine.  Plus, we’ve got listener feedback this morning. And it’s a pretty cool story about how a stay-at home mom is using this podcast to teach her kids about the world.  ------ Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of the President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's October 14th. You're listening to the President's Daily Brief. I'm your host and former CIA Officer Brian Dean Wright. Your morning intel starts now. First up, you might have heard the big news that the Biden administration is in a big fight with Saudi Arabia. But what you might not have heard is how important this fight could become, as the CIA is now saying that the probability of a nuclear war in Ukraine has gone up from 1% to 25. We'll discuss the latest. As always, I'm keeping an eye out for developing stories. Put this one on your radar. America is running dangerously low on weapons for both training purposes and wartime usage, largely because we're sending so much of it to Ukraine.

Plus, we've got some listener feedback this morning, and it's a pretty cool story about how a stay-at-home mom is using this podcast to teach her kids about the world. But first, let's get started with today's main brief. some incredible news out of the Middle East yesterday with a press release from Saudi Arabia taking aim at America. And then in response, the Biden folks attacking the Saudis with some pretty undiplomatic language. Now I'm going to dive into the details in a second. But I want you to listen to this brief understanding the gravity of this moment. Because folks, we have a new assessment out this morning from a former CIA director saying that the war in Ukraine may very well lead to the use of nuclear weapons.

And if so, that is the beginning of a global war, a war that will require all of the allies that we can get to fuel our economy and our military. So let's begin with some quick recent history to understand this fight with Saudi Arabia and why it's so important. About 10 days ago, an organization called OPEC Plus, which is an organization of oil producers from around the world, they announced that they would cut oil production by about 2 million barrels a day. And the reason is that cuts would lead to higher oil prices. And higher prices means fatter profits for oil producers like Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Russia. And it's the benefit to that last country, Russia, that really made the Biden administration and Europe very angry. And that's because, as we all know, America and Europe are spending billions of your taxpayer dollars in weaponry and aid to fight Russia in Ukraine.

But if the price of oil goes up, then oil producers. countries like Russia and most especially Russia makes more money, money that they can use to help fight their war in Ukraine. And that's the argument that the Biden administration tried to make again and again to OPEC members, most especially Saudi Arabia. Again, please don't help Russia was the message. But these OPEC members, well, they all but ignored the argument that they cut oil production anyway. That was about 10 days ago. Well, for the past 10 days, Joe Biden, his administration, Democrats, and frankly, even Republicans on Capitol Hill have expressed their outrage at OPEC and OPEC Plus, especially at the Saudis. Joe Biden, for example, said that the

Saudis will experience consequences, though he didn't give any details. Meanwhile, the head of the Senate's Foreign Relations Committee said that the Saudis had a choice between America and Russia, and they are choosing Russia. So it's been 10 days of that kind of rhetoric coming out of Washington, D.C. and yesterday the government of Saudi Arabia finally responded. And I'm going to read the quotes in a moment, but let me first paraphrase what they said. The Saudis denied that they chose any sides and that their decision was only based on their economic interests, not a political calculus. And then they added this.

The Biden administration had actually asked Saudi Arabia for a favor. If the Saudis were going to cut oil production, could they please hold on? for one month. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Saudis saw that request for, frankly, what it was, a one-month delay until after the midterm elections here in America. And that way, you and I, as voters, wouldn't be impacted by higher oil prices until after we went to the ballot box. Now, that's pretty, well, incredible, I guess is one word. And I'm not really talking about how America's leadership could be that cold and politically calculated, although, well, that's true. instead I'm talking about the fact that the Saudis by releasing this press statement well they were

airing very dirty laundry very publicly so enough of my paraphrasing let me read the quotes first here's the Saudis denying that they chose sides between America and Russia the government of the kingdom of Saudi Arabia would first like to express its total rejection of these statements by the Biden administration the government of the kingdom of Saudi Arabia affirms that any attempt to distort the facts about the kingdom's position regarding the crisis in Ukraine, well, those are unfortunate and will not change the kingdom's principled position. Next, here's the remarkable airing of dirty laundry, where America apparently asked the Saudis for a one-month midterm favor.

Quote, the government of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia clarified through its continuous consultations with the U.S. administration that postponing the OPEC-plus decision to restrict oil production for a month according to what was suggested, well, that would have a negative economic consequence, end quote. So to repeat the headline here, the Saudis are saying that according to what was suggested by the Biden administration, America's leadership wanted a one-month extension to any oil cuts. That's a favor so that you and I as voters wouldn't be impacted by higher oil prices until after the elections. And again, that's pretty remarkable. It's generated a lot of reporting and frankly a lot of

commentary, especially from conservative commentators. They're expressing their outrage that Joe Biden could be so manipulative and morally wrong. But whatever your view on that might be, that's actually not our focus this morning. Instead, what I want us to focus on is what this means for the future of our country. What does this mean for our standing in the world, especially with the 24 nations of OPEC and OPEC Plus, especially now that we need them more than ever? And this is why. Yesterday, former CIA director Leon Panetta wrote in an article in political magazine, and he cited a conversation with intelligence analysts inside the CIA, State Department, and our military. He said that the consensus of those folks, whether you believe them or not, is that the odds of a nuclear war in

Ukraine are up, and I mean way up. At the start of the war, these analysts said that the probability that Russia would use a nuclear weapon was at 1%. But now, it stands at 25%. percent or thereabouts. So are they right? Well, I don't know. But still, it's their view that after seven months of war, we went from a 1% probability of a nuclear war to 25%. And that's the view that is informing America's leaders in the White House and the Pentagon right now. So even if they're wrong, well, that's what they're telling leadership. So you combine that with the fact that there is absolutely no prospect of peace on the horizon. Well, that tells you that we are facing the very real prospect of a nuclear strike that could escalate very quickly to a global war.

And so, my friends, those are the facts this morning. In short, America is losing our relationship with the Saudis and other OPEC members, all while we need allies for the growing prospect of a nuclear strike in Ukraine that, of course, escalates to global war. The question is, what are we supposed to make of all this? And what comes next? Perhaps most importantly, what, can or should you all do and I do about this development. Well, here is what I would offer you this morning if we were sitting in the White House and you were looking for counsel. I want us to run a thought experiment. I want you to imagine that in the next couple of months, we enter into new global war against Russia. They go nuclear and we respond in kind or otherwise escalate. In that

scenario of global war, who would be our allies and who would be our enemies? As you make that I want you to focus on just one element of this thought experiment, and that is energy. And by that, I mean, what sources of energy would power America's economy and military in a time of global war, and what nations would we be reliant upon to provide us that energy? Because as listeners of the PDB know, our country's leaders have made very clear that we're abandoning traditional domestic energy, like oil and gas, all because of climate change. and that means that we are increasingly relying on other countries for our oil, countries like those in the Middle East, like Saudi Arabia.

Meanwhile, we're trying to replace that oil and gas with renewable energy, like solar and wind and industrial batteries. And yet, again, as PDB listeners know, that transition to renewables has just begun. It's not game ready yet and won't be for at least a decade or more. Plus, the entire renewable industry is largely foreign. The solar panels in America, for example, are almost exclusively built in China or Southeast Asia. And the batteries?

Well, their materials are from places like the Congo, and then they're refined and manufactured in China. And so if we step back on this thought experiment and you look at your list of likely allies and enemies, if we were to face a global war with Russia, which countries on your list will give us the energy to power our economy and our military, and which countries won't. Well, let's start with China. They are the key manufacturers of our renewable industry. And as PDB listeners know, China has been deeply critical of America's role in Ukraine, even blaming us for the crisis. They've also said that their relationship with Russia,

quote, has no limits, end quote. And we also know that China is our greatest national security threat, an assessment that's been publicly shared by the FBI and the CIA and the military. So there's that with China. Meanwhile, whose side would OPEC members likely choose? OPEC members likely choose, ours or Russia's, as we have to buy more oil and gas because we don't produce it anymore in America. Well, our government just accused the Saudis of having chosen Russia over America, and we're threatening vague consequences for doing so.

Now, look, is it possible that we don't need Saudi Arabia anymore or the OPEC countries? Well, I mean, it's possible that we could fire up our domestic oil production again, but the people currently in power in America said that we shouldn't, we can't, or we won't, because of the threat of climate change. So, folks, here's the point. We have gotten ourselves into a real mess when it comes to the national security of this country. If we just look at the issue of energy security, renewable or traditional, we are now reliant on foreign powers that either we don't like or they don't like us.

Worse yet, these countries are increasingly siding with our adversary, Russia, a country that we are effectively at war with and may well go to a nuclear crisis with. That is, of course, if we are to believe the assessment out of the CIA. And worst of all, if you look at your likely list of allies and enemies, our allies are almost all in Europe, and they are an absolute wreck. As we've talked about so often here on the PDB, their militaries are weak, their economies, are on the ropes, and they're running short of electricity to even keep themselves from freezing this winter. That's not a great set of allies to work with. The blunt truth, one that hurts me to say so much, is that America is not what it used to be. We are weak right now, or at least weaker than we've

been in a very long time with a major Achilles heel when it comes to our energy. This fight with the Saudis as we push them away, even when we frankly need them, well, it just underlines the madness of the moment. So if you agree with my assessment, we should ask this. What do we do next? Well, here would be my first piece of counsel. America is not positioned to wage a global war. In fact, I've got a radar story coming up that talks about our lack of weapons. We're running very low on them, mostly because we're sending them all to Ukraine. But that aside, we are not politically positioned for a global war, nor is our energy industry. So my goodness, let's find ways to to de-escalate this war in Ukraine.

Second, the fundamental reason I think that we're not ready to wage this global war is that for years, frankly, we've had pretty bad leadership. Now, you all can decide which person or party is most responsible, but I would say if we're being fair, we've had some pretty bad leadership on both sides for a long while. And if you share that assessment, my ultimate counsel, the thing that I leave you with this morning is this. in November come these midterm elections pick the people that you think best match your values as always but understand the gravity of this moment and America's weakness as we try to endure it

because if our leaders keep this up and those intel analysts are correct that we are at a 25 percent probability of a nuclear war well frankly we are going to end up in a global conflict not only one that will probably lose but absolutely nobody will win not one we all see the mushroom clouds on the horizon. Coming up, ladies and gentlemen, a closer look at what's on my radar. One quick brief for you that I just mentioned about our weapon supply running low. We'll be right back. Not loving your AT&T or T Mobile Bill?

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route metrics best overall mobile network performance u.s second half 2025 all rights reserved must provide a recent consumer mobile bill in the name of the person regimen the deal additional terms conditions and restrictions apply olivia rodrigo the unravel tour across north america with special guests get tickets Thursday may 7th at olivia rodrigo dot com welcome back to the pdb as always i'm watching a few other things this morning. Put this one on your radar. America is running dangerously low on the weapons that we need to supply our military and defend the nation, all because we're sending so much of it to Ukraine. That is the key takeaway from a report out from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, which looked at U.S. stockpiles of a number of weapon systems in this country.

According to the report, our weapons are, quote, reaching the minimum levels needed for war plans and training. So to emphasize the point here, We are running so low that not only are we jeopardizing our ability to fight a war, we don't even have enough to train our service members on. The report found that the key problem is that as this war with Ukraine continues to stretch on, our stockpiles are being depleted at a much faster pace than they can be replenished. For example, we've provided about 8,500 javelin anti-tink missiles to Ukraine, but we can only produce about 1,000 of those a year.

Here's another example. rockets for the high mars artillery system those will likely take two or more years to replenish all right here's another example the stinger anti-aircraft missile our government has sent about 1400 of those to ukraine but unfortunately the company that makes them hasn't produced a single one in two years that's because our military hasn't purchased one in about 18 years and that means that the company has to reactivate their assembly line but that's not as easy as throwing a switch the company has to throw in a switch the company has a source of materials to build the weapons, from the explosives to the electronics, to the batteries, the power the whole thing. And that process, according to the CEO, will take at least a year.

So all in all, this underlines my counsel to you from the main brief. No matter what we might think about the war in Ukraine, either we support it or we don't, there are limitations to our strength, to our abilities. And if we push our luck on this and a war with Russia comes, we are at a growing risk of either outright failure or weakening ourselves to the point that we can't defend the nation. And with that, one more thing before I let you go. How about we end on a good note? We've had some pretty heavy briefs this morning. So good news, here it comes right when we come back.

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of the PDB, I've got one more thing before I let you go. We cover a lot of very heavy topics here on the PDB. Today is absolutely no exception. So it's important to celebrate victories. And one of them for me is that we are creating a family of sorts here on the president's daily brief. And here's an example of what I mean. And I absolutely treasure these kinds of emails. Rebecca from Ohio wrote in a while back, she asked that I not share which town, but she is a mom who is also a teacher for a group of homeschooled kids. And she and her husband have carved out a space in their barn that is a classroom for the kids.

And they use this podcast to help shape their history and social studies classes. So for instance, do you remember the brief on the North and South Pacific Islands, the battle for the Pacific? Well, Rebecca had the kids do reports on the islands, their leaders, their culture, and the role that each played during World War II.

And I love that so much. It makes this podcast for me worth doing. to know that together you and I are making sense of the world and it's helping you and your families in all kinds of cool ways. And that is, it's so uplifting at a time when, frankly, I think we all need it. I sure do. So if you want to send me an email with how you use the PDB in your life or the value that it's provided, I would absolutely love to hear from you. I'm a little bit behind on emails, but still send me a note. The address as always is PDB at ThefirstTV.com.

Again, that's P as in Presidents, D as in D as in Daly, and B as in brief, at thefirsttv.com. I'm also on Twitter at Brian Dean Wright or my personal website, Briandeenwright.com. You can drop me note there too. But regardless, I sure look forward to hearing from you. It makes a big difference in my day. And that, ladies and gentlemen, concludes. your morning brief. As always, we close out the show, reminding each other of why we are here, talking about our country and our world. It's the creed of every good spy and every smart

American. It's from John chapter 8, verse 32. And you shall know the truth. And the truth shall make you free. Good day. What was your college soundtrack? The sound may have changed a bit, but the vibes remain unmatched. Let your student remix their own college soundtrack at Rutgers, New Brunswick.