The President's Daily Brief - October 17th, 2022. Will Xi Jinping Rule Over China for a Third Time?

Episode Date: October 17, 2022

It’s October 17th. You’re listening to the President’s Daily Brief. Your morning intel starts now. ------ It’s a big week for China-related news. The Communists are gathering for the first time in five years to pick a new president and chart a path forward for the regime. We’ll talk about three key takeaways from that gathering and why you should care. As always, I’m keeping an eye out for developing stories. Put these two on your radar. First, an update on the Battle for the Pacific. We’re learning that an island nation is sending its police officers to China, and I’ll explain who it is and why it’s important. Second, if you’re buying gifts for the holidays, beware: You may end up buying goods made by Chinese slaves. And as always, we’ve got a listener question. Today it’s about the CIA’s assessment of increasing odds that we’ll see a new-clear war in Ukraine. ------ Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of the President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's October 17th. You're listening to the President's Daily Brief. I'm your host and former CIA Officer Brian Dean Wright. Your morning intel starts now. First up, it's a big week for China-related news. The communists are gathering for the first time in five years to pick a new president and chart a path forward for the regime. We'll talk about three key takeaways from that gathering and why you should care. As always, I'm keeping an eye out for developing stories. Put these two on your radar. First, an update on the battle for the Pacific. We're learning that an island nation is sending its police officers to China, and I'll explain who it is and why it's so important. Second, if you're buying gifts for the holidays, beware, you may well end up buying goods made by Chinese slaves.

And as always, we've got a listener question. Today, it's about the CIA's assessment of increasing odds that we will see a nuclear war in Ukraine. But first, let's get started with today's main brief. You're going to be hearing a lot of news out of China this week. And that's because they're having a once every five years meeting of communists from around their country. Now, one of the things that they're focused on is who will serve as president. Now, that man is almost certainly going to be the current president, President Xi. He'll serve for what will be a third term, which no one has done since the founding of the country. In fact, it was done by the communist dictator Mao Zedong, one of the most ruthless and violent communists to have ever lived.

So why should you care about this development, this election so far away? Well, we are going to talk about three things that we actually learned from President Xi, who spoke yesterday. First, let's talk climate change. So to refresh our memories on this one, China is the world's leading emitter of carbon dioxide. In fact, if you add up the emissions of at least the next 20 countries or so in the world after China, and that includes the U.S., all of the countries in Europe, Canada, Australia, and so, so on, all of their emissions still do not equal those of China. So here is what we learned from President Xi yesterday on what he plans to do about that. On short, not much. President Xi said that

China will continue to use fossil fuels for decades to come as his country slowly pivots towards renewables unless that hurts their economy. And if it does, they will stick with fossil fuels. Here are his words, folks. China will quote, work actively and prudently on climate change goals, but in a well-planned and phased way, in line with the principle of developing the new before discarding the old. Now, President Xi actually went on to mention coal specifically. Quote, coal will continue to be used, but in a cleaner and more efficient way, end quote. In other words, China will continue to use fossil fuels for however long it wants,

no matter how many electric vehicles that you buy or solar farms that we build. So my assessment on this one is this. Let's remember their energy policy of developing the new before throwing out the old as our nation embraces the opposite. We are risking everything, our economy, our military, all on dirty green energy as we shut down our oil and gas industry. And as we take that risk, the benefit that we get based on this speech by China, as leadership, well, the benefit to the atmosphere from all of our risk and sacrifice is,

well, ultimately, not much. It's not stopping climate change or even slowing it in any kind of material way. The atmospheric data and simple math make that clear. Now, to be fair, climate change activists will say, well, at least we're doing something. I mean, okay, it's just not clear what that something is. I suppose it can make us feel better and I appreciate feeling better. But feelings are not enough when they jeopardize the future of the nation. All right, let's move on to the next issue, and that is Taiwan. Now, this one's important because it could draw America into a direct war with Beijing. So what did President Xi say yesterday about Taiwan? Well, to paraphrase, he said that China will do whatever it takes to reclaim Taiwan. Now, that includes military force,

and it'll happen sooner rather than later. Here's what he said. Quote, solving the Taiwan issue is the Chinese people's own business. We persist, of course, in striving for the prospect of peaceful reunification. However, there is no commitment to renounce the use of force, and the option to take all necessary measures is retained. In case there's any doubt, he ended his speech by saying this, quote, the wheels of history are rolling towards China's reunification and the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. The complete reunification of our country must be realized. So no big shock here. Nobody expected him to say much else. But what's important for you to know in my assessment of this part of his speech is that President Xi wants to take back

Taiwan during his rule. So his third term as president is a big deal. The clock is now ticking. He's got five more years as president. And if war over Taiwan does come, that means war with us, the United States. That includes quite possibly your kids, and your grandkids. And with that, we have one more key takeaway, and it's technically about COVID, but really, it's about us. Let me explain.

President Xi said yesterday that his country is absolutely and resolutely committed to a zero COVID policy. To refresh our memories on that policy, what it means is that entire cities and regions get shut down if there's one single case of COVID. Now here's what he said. Quote, we put the people and their lives above all else.

and have tenaciously pursued a dynamic zero-COVID policy. We have protected the people's health and safety to the greatest extent possible and have made tremendously encouraging achievements in both epidemic response and economic and social development, end quote. So what's very clear in my assessment is that China makes absolutely no apologies for what it's done and will continue to embrace zero COVID. And of course, all that comes with it, to include factories either shutting down or locking their employees inside of buildings for as long as an outbreak lasts.

Now, that kind of lockdown policy is technically called a closed loop system. And it's the only way that China's economy is actually chugging along right now in this zero COVID world. So why does that matter to you and to us? Well, the most important takeaway for America is that zero COVID policies create an opening for us to bring back our companies that have set up factories there in China. The reason is that companies are, growing incredibly frustrated with this zero COVID stuff. Their factories are shut down or their

supply chains are getting cut off. So we're seeing more and more companies, American and otherwise, leave the communists in China for other nations. Now we're going to be talking about this later this week. It's an idea called reshoring or nearshoring. And we're going to talk about how we can bring back our companies and industries that left a long time ago. It's a pretty cool brief that my team and I are working on about the clothing and textile industry. More to come. So folks, there you have it. Three key takeaways from the big series of meetings that started in China yesterday. So we've talked about climate change, Taiwan, and of course zero COVID business. And in case I didn't make this clear, the current president, Xi, will get his third term as leader. And in effect, he becomes the

dictator of China. He has crushed his opposition and controls a massive surveillance network. to prevent any future trouble. That means that he will be our enemy for a long time to come, a man that we will be battling for decades one way or the other. Coming up, ladies and gentlemen, a closer look at what's on my radar. Two quick briefs for you, both on China this morning. We'll be right back. Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel

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Through refresh our memories, we talked a lot on the September 29th episode about which of those island nations were on our side, which were on China's side, and those who were still on the fence. Well, this morning, unfortunately, we've got further evidence that one of those nations is slipping further and further into Beijing's grasp. A group of 34 police officers from the Solomon Islands are heading out to China staying for one month, and they've got a few goals.

They'll be getting some training, visit police stations, and learn from the expertise of Chinese police. All of that, according to a statement issued by the Solomon Islands government. The Chinese are, as you would imagine, thrilled with this opportunity. The Chinese embassy issued a statement saying that the Solomon police will, quote, better understand the diverse Chinese cultures and friendly Chinese people, and enhance the friendship between China and the Solomon Islands, end quote. Now, this police exchange is happening because the islands, Prime Minister, last name of Sogavari, he signed a secret security deal earlier this year

collaborating with the Chinese. And I highlight this news in part because I can tell you, based on my background, what will happen to these 34 police officers once they arrive in China. They will be developed as potential assets of Chinese intelligence services, either recruited during this trip or when they get back to the Solvons. With luck, America's government is keeping track of these likely agents, or we should be, fingers crossed, because it'll be very important to identify these people as we move forward in the Pacific, knowing which folks are our friends and those who are our enemies. Finally, this morning, a word of warning as we head into the holiday season,

as you look for bargains, beware. You might be buying goods made by Chinese slave labor. Now, that's not supposed to be happening. It's supposed to be banned in America, but we have fresh reporting showing that it's still getting in. So let's recap some of our previous episodes. I told you about something called the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act. And that's a big long name.

But the bottom line is it's a law that was effectively meant to block all imports from this very specific region of China. It's called Xinjiang, where the Uyghur people are being used as slave labor and a system of concentration camps. Well, that law was passed last January, and it went into effect in June, or at least it was supposed to have. But according to recent data, we're actually seeing more goods than ever coming into the United States from that region, not less. According to shipping records and customs data

compiled by the South China Morning Post, companies from the Xinjiang region have exported $56.8 million worth of goods to the United States in just the month of August. That's the highest level in 10 months. In fact, it's almost seven times higher than the month of June. Again, the month that the Uyghur-forced Labor Prevention Act went into effect. Now, mind you, that number that I just mentioned, $56.8 million in the month of August. Well, that number should be zero, but it's not. America is now the Xinjiang region's fifth biggest trading partner up from 12th in July. So what's going on? Honestly, we don't know. And the U.S. government isn't giving us any clues. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection was asked about what's going on, but they issued no comment,

and they said that they won't. And that's odd, perhaps even a little bit suspicious. And meanwhile, while it leaves the rest of us in a pickle. How do we shop while also being mindful about not supporting slavery? And here's the simple, if challenging solution. Look at the tags on those gifts that you are going to give this holiday season. Xinjiang is known for its cotton, and that means that any clothes that you buy with a tag that says made in China will assume that it's made by slaves.

Also, if the tags read Made in Vietnam or Made in Bangladesh, avoid those two because Vietnam and Bangladesh have both, been busted for using Xinjiang cotton. Of course, if you want to avoid any complications whatsoever, you can always look for those labels that say Made in America. And here on the PDB, I think that that is the safest bet. And with that, one more thing before I let you go. A listener question about the CIA and nuclear war. We'll be right back. Not loving your AT&T or T Mobile Bill. Yeah, we've been hearing that a lot. Good news. Bring your AT&T or T Mobile Bill to Verizon and we'll give you a better deal. So get away from that. Unfortunately,

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One more thing before I let you go. David from Norman, Oklahoma, wrote in about the CIA assessment that I mentioned on Friday that said that the probability of a nuclear war in Ukraine, well, they're up to 25%. So David said, quote, I think it was you, Brian, who said that in response to the failures of the intelligence assessments in Afghanistan and Ukraine, that the intelligence community is good at, say, counting things, but not so good at determining the strength or the morale of an enemy force. So my question is, should we believe that our intelligence services have any idea

whether Putin will use tactical nuclear weapons, or should we assume that they don't know what they're talking about, you know, just throwing spaghetti against the walls like the rest of us and seeing what sticks? So David, totally fair point, and you are absolutely right. And it was, in fact, me who said precisely what you're highlighting. The intelligence community is, is wildly inconsistent with their assessments on a whole range of topics from the Iraq War 20 years ago to Afghanistan and Ukraine more recently. Now, on Friday, I said two key things, and they're worth focusing on. First, I said that I don't know if these intelligence analysts are right. And for the reasons that you mentioned, you and I, we have every reason to be suspicious.

However, and this is the second critical piece. The nuclear assessment is what the analysts are telling the president and the Pentagon. on. And that's what's driving our response both now and planning for the future. In other words, maybe they're totally wrong, but the president and our military presumably think that they're right. And that's why Joe Biden has warned that we face a nuclear Armageddon, that we are living in the most dangerous time since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. So that means right or wrong, our politicians and military leaders are increasingly going to do things very differently than if they believe that the probability was at say 1%. So the bottom line, David, is that the White House and the Pentagon

will have an increasingly itchy trigger finger if they think that the Russians have an itchy trigger finger too. That's a bad deal for everybody. And that's why this 25% assessment is so important, even if it's wrong. And that ladies and gentlemen, concludes your morning brief. As always, we close out the show reminding each other of why we are here, talking about our country and our world. It's the creed of every good spy and every smart American. It's from John chapter 8 verse 32. And you shall know the truth and the truth shall make you free. Good day.